Prices down at Fun

ProofCents

I noticed that prices were down at Fun why do you think this is economy? no high quality coins?

illini420

Just about all of the nicer coins I was looking at went for at least as much as they've been going for over the past 6 months or so, some went for significantly higher prices. The low quality examples went for less of course as I would expect in any economy. Here's a few examples of what I was watching:

1909 IHC PCGS 66RD OGH
This one went for $2760 as it was a really nice looking coin. PCGS guide price is $1950, can be found at shows in this grade from $1500-$2000 for the most part depending on how nice the coin is.

1909 5c PCGS 66
This one went for $4312.50, it was also decent looking, but not the best 1909 MS66 I've seen, but surely not the worst. PCGS guide is $4800, but the sale price on this one is consistent with sales over the past year or two. During the internet bidding it was going for under $2k and I was hoping on the economy fears persisting and allowing me to steal this one. Oh well...

On the other end would be this one:
1909-O 25c PCGS 65
This one went for $6325, much less than I expected even though I didn't like the look of this one at all. Just has some ugly and slightly inconsistent toning for my taste. Went for much less than I expected though given the rarity of the 1909-O quarter in Mint State. PCGS Guide is $9500 on this one. Just a month ago a very nice 1909-O 25c in AU58 went for $4025 (PCGS Guide is $850)!!!! 1909-O PCGS AU58

Was watching several of the Dale Friend Half Dollars too, and all of them went for more than I was willing to pay. Of course, most of those were very top quality coins for their grades.

Overall, I think the economy has defintely at least caused a slowdown in the growth of the coin market, but for top quality stuff, the money is still there from what I'm seeing.

scottgardener

I would think a bad economy would draw more people into coin collecting, driving up prices. It certainly pushes up demand for gold and silver, and thus drives up bullion-dependent coins like common date Saint Gaudens.

Bochiman

<< <i>I would think a bad economy would draw more people into coin collecting, driving up prices. It certainly pushes up demand for gold and silver, and thus drives up bullion-dependent coins like common date Saint Gaudens. >>



Maybe your pure investors or such, but not the "common" person.
Coins are like stocks, except understood even less. With stocks, someone can think they know the company and read about the financials.
With coins, there are different grading parties, raw coins, different years, etc. Not that easy to understand for great than face value.

With bullion, it is pretty simple. The buy/sell spread is not that big. People can understand that...and sell at a local pawn shop/coin shop/ebay/etc.

Coins, as a hobby, are pretty much discretionary income. Stocks have taken HUGE hits. Jobs have been hit. Housing market hit. The discretionary income has evaporated for many. Even for those that it hasn't, many lost a bundle in stocks (401k, etc) and are cautious right now.

Interest rates are low (so savings rate of return aren't great).

There are just too many issues with spending on certain things right now. That's why, I believe, that the super nice, really rare, coins still do well (a small group still has money...made a lot before and still has their discretionary/investment income) while others are sinking because the floor is sinking. The people in the middle are watching what they buy and being a lot more cautious (at least, I put myself in that area and know others similar).

TorinoCobra71

Economy.

WaterSport

Economy and yes it will get worst. There is no way a coin market can sustain itself with its current coin values while everything else collapses around us. If you believe this that you also believed home sales would just keep going up and up and the market would just keep going up and up, etc. All eyes were on FUN and its trend was over all, Down. The organizers will NOT make this public ( or any other organizer who had a show last year) as they are in the business to make money and announcing this downward trend would keep both dealers, supporters, vendors, etc, away. What folks seem to think is that the down side will happen instantly at one show, and all at once. That will not happen. What you will see is that the summer to fall shows will show a steady decline in attendance, sales, dealer participation, etc. Sure, the high end rare stuff will auction off fine because most folks buying this sort of material are not as affected. Its the other 99% who slowly loose a job, have to pay college tuition, etc., that will cash in the coins, in order to make ends meet. I know folks on these very boards who are in this situation right now who started selling off LAST year. Just because they are not posting it, does not mean its not happening. Pride and dignity fall into play. There are plenty others here I am sure are contemplating the same, or will be forced to sell in the coming year.

WS

badger

I sold about 50 coins over the last two Heritage auctions. These were mainly 1950-1964 proofs but also prewar cameo Lincolns and toned Washies/ Franklins. I would definitely say that the coin market is not going up for these segments. I had sold all of my lesser quality coins two years ago. So what I have left is high quality for grade with good eye appeal. The eye appeal coins seem to still be holding up with good number of bidders and pricing equal to sales from the last two years. However, I have noticed about a 10% weakness in top pops that are in the $5k+ range.

There are exceptions like the recently graded 1961 Franklin PR69 DCam that netted ~$27k. The SMS Kennedys and the 1964 AH PR68 DCam held up with a slight discount from last year. I bid on these but was not successful on winning any.

Looking forward to see what Long Beach brings.
Dave

ambro51

...but, on the other hand, COINS have held their value better than any other asset class or commodity over the last two years.

(for some reason no one ever seems to mention that)

cohodk

<< <i>...but, on the other hand, COINS have held their value better than any other asset class or commodity over the last two years.

(for some reason no one ever seems to mention that) >>



Not better than US treasuries. But I see your point.

renomedphys

As my wallet is feeling a bit light, I for one hope to see more decline. Selfish, yeah, I know...

But I seriously expect a resurgence in prices come summer. We've just begun to deal with the repercussions of this economic downturn... shrinking stock portfolios for the wealthy, shrinking bank accounts due to the 3-year gas price inflation for the average joe... but at least we've begun to DEAL with it. I say wait for it. This summer, there will be an upturn due to increasing home sales like there is every summer, stocks will rise, purse strings will loosen. Of course, all bets are off come October.

Hang on, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.

And try to take solace in your pretty coins. At least we all still have them to keep our spirits high.

ChrisRx

<< <i>As my wallet is feeling a bit light, I for one hope to see more decline. Selfish, yeah, I know...

But I seriously expect a resurgence in prices come summer. We've just begun to deal with the repercussions of this economic downturn... shrinking stock portfolios for the wealthy, shrinking bank accounts due to the 3-year gas price inflation for the average joe... but at least we've begun to DEAL with it. I say wait for it. This summer, there will be an upturn due to increasing home sales like there is every summer, stocks will rise, purse strings will loosen. Of course, all bets are off come October.

Hang on, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.

And try to take solace in your pretty coins. At least we all still have them to keep our spirits high. >>



I agree its going to get better by this summer. Just a lot of things to fix economy-wise.

dbldie55

Hard to believe the economy will go anywhere but down at this point. The "fixes" being proposed are the exact things that broke it in the first place.

RBinTex

"...but, on the other hand, COINS have held their value better than any other asset class or commodity over the last two years."

Not trying to pick a fight IN ANY WAY but is there more than anecdotal evidence of that?

While I agree with you (also except for treasuries, cd's, etc.) AND believe it, I'd genuinely like to know what objective measures exist that would support that assertion.

ambro51

Yes,. When I sold AAPL in 2007, I sold at 188. (2,526 shares///do the math if you like)


Now, its 87,



Coinwise, I have a 66RD SVDB that I bought for 15 2 years ago,


Now, it sells at 18.


So, there is one fact. Of course, the nice thing with facts is that you can do anything with them.