Article: 'Silver prices will follow Gold in 2009'
ProofCollection
Posts: 6,248 ✭✭✭✭✭
'Silver prices will follow Gold in 2009'
Commodity Online
Where are silver prices headed? Will silver prices follow gold in these days of economic meltdown? Yes, silver prices are all set to follow gold prices mainly due to investment demand and ratio play, says a 2009 silver forecast report from Mumbai-based Commtrendz Risk Management Services.
According to the report, unlike gold, silver also serves as an industrial metal and hence gets consumed unlike gold. The recent slowdown in global economy has seen silver prices being battered more unlike gold. However it has a strong positive correlation over lager time frame to big brother gold, which can be said as the only reason why it has not fallen like other industrial metals.
Demand from industrial consumers has been patchy with a downward bias throughout 2008. Investment in US iShares silver fund could see more investments in next year. On the negative side Silver mining supply has increased from previous years, which from usage point of view will continue to have negative force on prices as the market has to digest higher silver supply amid a much slower industrial growth rate throughout 2009.
However, Commtrendz expects silver prices to continue following gold as its correlation with gold comes to play with a more positive momentum due to two major reasons. First one being the Gold/Silver ratio play and the other one being high correlation with gold due to its partial consideration as a precious metal. As can be seen in the gold/Silver Ratio, the last few months has seen the ratio to have spiked to levels, we had seen in year 2003.
As can be seen these levels have been proved to be resistance zones indicating that ratio could start to retrace over a larger time scale towards assumed mean (We have plotted 12-month SMA in this case). This expected play indicates relative out performance for silver against gold over medium term.
The other reason being the high correlation with gold, which will act as a positive force keeping gold’s positive outlook in mind. Overall considering everything, we can expect silver prices to follow gold prices mainly due to investment demand and ratio play, which has been out of sync.
Commtrendz Silver Outlook:
We are expecting silver to move in line with gold with a high probability of out performance. The trend line could act as a resistance around $16.75- $17.15 in spot silver. These levels are clustered around 61.80% retracement of the sharp fall (From 21.24 to 8.42), we witnessed in 2008.
Initially we expect silver to find resistance towards $12.00 and then test support levels between 10.75/11.00.This move could be followed by the next leg up towards 14.50/15.00 range and subsequently higher towards 16.50/17.50 levels towards the end of the year.
Risk:
Risk for the above view lies in a failure in gold prices. Technically a break of $8.50 could see silver getting to a consolidation phase with a weaker bias.
Commodity Online
Where are silver prices headed? Will silver prices follow gold in these days of economic meltdown? Yes, silver prices are all set to follow gold prices mainly due to investment demand and ratio play, says a 2009 silver forecast report from Mumbai-based Commtrendz Risk Management Services.
According to the report, unlike gold, silver also serves as an industrial metal and hence gets consumed unlike gold. The recent slowdown in global economy has seen silver prices being battered more unlike gold. However it has a strong positive correlation over lager time frame to big brother gold, which can be said as the only reason why it has not fallen like other industrial metals.
Demand from industrial consumers has been patchy with a downward bias throughout 2008. Investment in US iShares silver fund could see more investments in next year. On the negative side Silver mining supply has increased from previous years, which from usage point of view will continue to have negative force on prices as the market has to digest higher silver supply amid a much slower industrial growth rate throughout 2009.
However, Commtrendz expects silver prices to continue following gold as its correlation with gold comes to play with a more positive momentum due to two major reasons. First one being the Gold/Silver ratio play and the other one being high correlation with gold due to its partial consideration as a precious metal. As can be seen in the gold/Silver Ratio, the last few months has seen the ratio to have spiked to levels, we had seen in year 2003.
As can be seen these levels have been proved to be resistance zones indicating that ratio could start to retrace over a larger time scale towards assumed mean (We have plotted 12-month SMA in this case). This expected play indicates relative out performance for silver against gold over medium term.
The other reason being the high correlation with gold, which will act as a positive force keeping gold’s positive outlook in mind. Overall considering everything, we can expect silver prices to follow gold prices mainly due to investment demand and ratio play, which has been out of sync.
Commtrendz Silver Outlook:
We are expecting silver to move in line with gold with a high probability of out performance. The trend line could act as a resistance around $16.75- $17.15 in spot silver. These levels are clustered around 61.80% retracement of the sharp fall (From 21.24 to 8.42), we witnessed in 2008.
Initially we expect silver to find resistance towards $12.00 and then test support levels between 10.75/11.00.This move could be followed by the next leg up towards 14.50/15.00 range and subsequently higher towards 16.50/17.50 levels towards the end of the year.
Risk:
Risk for the above view lies in a failure in gold prices. Technically a break of $8.50 could see silver getting to a consolidation phase with a weaker bias.
0
Comments