Lincoln values - a sea of red in the PCGS Price Guide
DMWJR
Posts: 6,008 ✭✭✭✭✭
Looks like fallout from the Jack Lee sale ...
One year ago, did anyone think we would enter 2009 with Red Lincoln Cents .... in the red??
Some of us copper collectors are thinking ... it's about time.
Doesn't bother me in the least. Research was my friend in the auction, along with a well trained eye (not mine). One of the coins I bought out of the sale was valued at $20k, and has now dropped to $17k. What did I pay for it? $10k. The coin in question graded a point higher than the one in my collection. Mine was a good one, and the best I had found over the last five years, so it was no slouch. I researched all of the coins I was interested in, and set appropriate values prior to the auction based on the coin -- not the holder. This particular coin was in an OGH when Mr. Lee bought it, but had been disguised by the pedigree reholdering -- a covert OGH coin in a nice new blue holder. What it would have brought if still in the OGH, no one can say.
I won a couple, and lost many, many more. The end result is that I am happy with each of my purchases, and only regret one that I didn't win (went for moon money). I can't say that about all of the auctions I have participated in. Maybe by sharing this, other collectors will realize that buying the coin not the holder, is truly the way to happiness in coin collecting.
I won't identify the coin until I can take my own pics of it.
One year ago, did anyone think we would enter 2009 with Red Lincoln Cents .... in the red??
Some of us copper collectors are thinking ... it's about time.
Doesn't bother me in the least. Research was my friend in the auction, along with a well trained eye (not mine). One of the coins I bought out of the sale was valued at $20k, and has now dropped to $17k. What did I pay for it? $10k. The coin in question graded a point higher than the one in my collection. Mine was a good one, and the best I had found over the last five years, so it was no slouch. I researched all of the coins I was interested in, and set appropriate values prior to the auction based on the coin -- not the holder. This particular coin was in an OGH when Mr. Lee bought it, but had been disguised by the pedigree reholdering -- a covert OGH coin in a nice new blue holder. What it would have brought if still in the OGH, no one can say.
I won a couple, and lost many, many more. The end result is that I am happy with each of my purchases, and only regret one that I didn't win (went for moon money). I can't say that about all of the auctions I have participated in. Maybe by sharing this, other collectors will realize that buying the coin not the holder, is truly the way to happiness in coin collecting.
I won't identify the coin until I can take my own pics of it.
Doug
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I could care less if Lincolns see some red (just more purchases for me!) - Just a small correction in the market I believe.
Probably excellent work by Price Guide Editor to not just follow a single sale to come to price, but, take everything into account.
Wondercoin
More registry players at that level are holding, no need to sell (or need to buy another 66 or 67).
I feel that once the dow goes above 10 and rocky is in office people will relax and spend again.
<< <i>"One of the coins I bought out of the sale was valued at $20k, and has now dropped to $17k. What did I pay for it? $10k."
Probably excellent work by Price Guide Editor to not just follow a single sale to come to price, but, take everything into account.
Wondercoin >>
No doubt, one sale would not be a good reason to tank an entire market. But, this is the largest showing of red in the price guide in years. If you asked me a year or two ago what it would look like on 1/2/09, I would not have said red. No crystal balls out there ...
I'll check the prices in the next day or two and compare the changes.
David
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
They did not move down that much.
Am I missing something?
Gardnerville, NV
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<< <i>Checking the vast majority of the numbers...
They did not move down that much.
Am I missing something? >>
I agree... I was expecting to see a "sea of red." Instead I see just a few reds scattered on some very low pop high grade Lincolns... Maybe I'm missing something too...
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
there aren't many coins affected
nothing red on any of the Lincoln proofs.
Somewhat of a perfect storm with Mr. Lee doing some slab purchasing and then his untimely demise, coupled with hard times in the financial markets. Frankly, PCGS could have written it down further, or chosen to do nothing with the sale. I don't think these coins are selling based on the price guide.
<< <i>
nothing red on any of the Lincoln proofs. >>
I wonder what will happen to the 1909VDB MPL's in the PCGS price guide after the sale of the two NGC coins this coming week. Somehow, I can't see them selling for $37.5K and $50.0K each. Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
<< <i>
<< <i>
nothing red on any of the Lincoln proofs. >>
I wonder what will happen to the 1909VDB MPL's in the PCGS price guide after the sale of the two NGC coins this coming week. Somehow, I can't see them selling for $37.5K and $50.0K each. Steve
With all due respect, they shouldn't be affected at all since they're not PCGS coins. We all know they didn't cross.
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/showcase/2819
Varieties are a major exception. Throw the price guide away for most of them. Almost all top pop prices are 75%-100% off.
I was watching an eBay auction for one of the Jack Lee pedigree cents. The 2004 in MS68RD sold for $97.75 at the Heritage auction, even though it was a common grade and badly spotted. It resold yesterday on 1/2 for $111.00. Was the pedigree worth this much?
A much nicer one sold for $380.00 at the Bowers aution two weeks earlier.
David
A sea of RED my A$$........Jack Lee was one of the nicest guys I ever met. Unfortunately he was a target and he could not escape it. He was the target at the Joshua and Ally Walsh auction by a very unethical coin dealer. There were numerous times Jack could be seen bidding against himself at Public auction. Jack had a desire to pass me in the Set Registry even after I told him I have been collecting certified coins for 20 years. How can you get better coins than me in two years ?
As an example lets take the 1935 s in the Jack Lee collection. This coin was bought by Mike Sadler for 50 cents in a 2x2 about 15 years ago He got very lucky and PCGS graded it ms 67 red.This coin had a predominently blue color. Very Psychedelic ! He sold the coin to Tom Mershon for $10,000. Nice Hit !
This coin went unsold at the Tom Mershon auction. Next Heritage unloaded it to Jack Lee. Many of the coins in the Jack Lee collection have other sordid stories. I would personally advise buyers to remove the Jack Lee pedigree from their auction purchases.
Lincoln Cents are just dandy ! If the Thomas Irwin collection or my collection came to auction some of the prices realized would make you guys wet your pants !!!!
Stewart Blay
WS
I posted years ago that the Lincolns would peak in the autumn of '08 though
the memorials could continue much longer.
It's too early to write off any of the Lincolns since there could be more sur-
prises coming in the near future. I would be leery of holding any coomon coins
from the series that sell for high premiums. This even includes some coins in
circulated condition.
While there will continue to be a flow of new and young collectors into the hob-
by it might not be enough to hold prices up across the board.
He was the target at the Joshua and Ally Walsh auction by a very unethical coin dealer.
Yes, I remember flying all the way to Florida to sit on my hands and watch as poor Jack was bid up by the guy that built the Walsh collection. I was a little less than pleased
Anyway, I agree that Jack had the resources to pay inflated prices, which in turn was reflected in the PCGS price guide. I think the current "correction" is very appropriate.
As a side note, I promise to wear a "Depends" undergarment to the auction of Stewart's collection
Jack
<< <i> I think the current "correction" is very appropriate.
Jack >>
Aren't Lincoln prices are high enough without the fluff and pumping??? I would be satisfied just buying 5-6 solid high end Lincolns in 2009. However, with the crap selling at a premium and solid coins bringing mars money, it's been a challenge for me. I would just like the good ones to come to market and be offered for standard moon money ....
Hopefully a correction or two like this will take that top edge off.
Varieties are still an exception for coppers in the price guide too, but I suspect almost everyone that wants one already knows.
David
A theory I have about the 1959-1967 coins is that there are loads of MS64-MS65 coins out there, but the terrible lack of detail due to various factors, makes availability of true 66-67 coins virtually an impossibility. Who wants to pay for an MS67 from the 60's when it is really no better than 65's out there. ( I don't mean to insult all 67's out there, just some
People scoff sometimes about the Memorials and that there are millions out there waiting to be graded. That's not going to be true 10-20 years from now, and it will be interesting to see what the survival rates are going to be for zinc Lincolns, even within the graded populations. Those who shy away from collecting copper because of its volatility should not even think about collecting copper plated zinc.
Wow that is one sorry looking lot of coins.
http://coins.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=28083&Lot_No=23206&src=pr
You will need a Barf Bag.
How are they putting these things into 68 holders????????
Are these black pools not technically "SPOTS" ???
After seeing that ms68 I posted here what can we grade this one I have, found in an old can of coins untouched since my late fatherinlaw dropped the last ones in in 1991
if that dog was a 68 is this a 69?
David
I will wait untill someone comments and then tell you what else I saw at this shop.
Ken
The Jack Lee 26-S did sell. I think it was a bit north of 100K.
Jack
Just was looking at my registry set and noticed the beating that the Lincolns just took. Some of them well over 25% down and a few almost 50% down on the PCGS Price Guide, even the key dates got hit (probably about time for some of the drops though). What bothers me though is when I go to the Price Guide, the drop isn't shown immediately. You need to go to the price changes section of the Guide and look at the current changes and scroll through the hundreds listed.
Not sure why the complete guide can't be updated immediately. Seems like an opportunity for some trouble as someone could go to the Guide right now and check the price on an 1909-S VDB in 65RD and they'll see it's $7150. If they don't check today's price changes though, they won't see that it has actually just dropped to $6250.
Anyways, I just hope the several dealers who like to price their coins at the PCGS Guide prices (some of them deservedly so) are aware of these huge price drops by later this week at the Long Beach show.
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
Was the Mint not planning to replicate a 2009 Lincoln matte proof with 1909 composition and design standards, or is that wishful thinking?
yup...i'd think it'd be a one click update and all associated links would bear any changes
<< <i>interesting lil insider stuff there illini420
yup...i'd think it'd be a one click update and all associated links would bear any changes >>
Yeah, seems to take a day or two for the prices to acutally update on the normal PCGS Guide pages... When I notice certain coins or series taking huge jumps up in the Price Guide in the price changes section, I've sometimes considered rushing out to the local B&M or just going to to dealer websites and buying up what is available at the previous price levels which still show as current in the regular section. Haven't done that before as I imagine it would be alot of work for what is usually not that big of a price change, but I could forsee some folks taking advantage of this pricing delay if the change were significant enough. Of course I know this is only one price guide, but a lot of buyers and seller seem to rely on it.
Back to the topic, I still think we're in for more red in the price guide for Lincolns unfortunately (unless you're buying
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
Because the pricing is manually judged and changed (see the Davis Hall explanation on the home page). Jaime Hernandez, the PCGS price guide editor, is a one man show, and up to his eyeballs in price fluctuations on all series at all times. Along with his many many other work responsibilities. Heavy load. But you can actually call him and his is very receptive. Jaime is also an avid collector of IHCs and Lincolns and a knowledgeable copper lover himself. Take care.
<< <i>""Not sure why the complete guide can't be updated immediately.""
Because the pricing is manually judged and changed (see the Davis Hall explanation on the home page). Jaime Hernandez, the PCGS price guide editor, is a one man show, and up to his eyeballs in price fluctuations on all series at all times. Along with his many many other work responsibilities. Heavy load. But you can actually call him and his is very receptive. Jaime is also an avid collector of IHCs and Lincolns and a knowledgeable copper lover himself. Take care. >>
Duane, I can definitely appreciate all of the hard work that it takes to keep the Guide up to date and I think they do an awesome job. My point was that once the information is in their system and uploaded to the page that displays the price changes in the last day the information is already in electronic form and in their system. But the main section of the price guide doesn't update until a day or so later.
So, right now when I go to the Lincoln Cent page of the Guide, my 1909-S VDB in 65RD shows a value of $7150. But when I look at my registry set, look at today's price changes or when I look up my coin number, they each show a value of $6250. So the hard work by the "one man show" in updating the value has been done. Just that the last step in displaying that update the main section of the Guide has not been completed.
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
WS
Once these price changes trickle down to the dealer tables who use this pricing, might present some buying opportunities for those who haven't jumped in all the way yet. I've always sort of wanted an MS68 steel cent and now they look a little better to me
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
there's always those that will defy any and all
the 1964 sms ms65rd totally shattered established price just last month by going over 50% of guide price...a meek existence will always hold demand over supply...i think it was a $4k to $5k sales track that hammered at $8k approx
i still hold reguard in those 1965-1967 pcgs sms cameo's as holding demand over supply too
matte proofs in a common man's affordability range should hold fine too
certain areas i just don't see red pricing to happen or supply passing demand
It looks like the memorials are still doing reasonably well with more plus signs than minus.
Empty Nest Collection
Matt’s Mattes