How much will coin prices drop in 2009 ?

STEWARTBLAYNUMIS

It is my educated guess that many coins with price tags over $25,000 will drop an average of 20% in 2009. This prediction will be prevalent at the FUN show auctions.
However coins valued at less than $5,000 will most probably hold their value and in many instances will increase in value as long as they are properly graded.

To give you an idea,as an example I will say 1794 dollars will decrease in value by 20% across the board in 2009.To personalie this comment I will say that a 1909 S VDB lincoln cents in ms 67 red will decrease in value from $150,000 to between $100,000 and $125,000.However a 1909 s VDB in ms 66 red will hold its value at between $15,000 and $18,000.

The biggest value drop will happen to most coins minted in the last 25 years. Some will be worth close to nothing.

What are your views and comments ?

Stewart Blay

sonoranmonsoon

I have been tracking the 1794 dollars Heritage has up, They both seem to be off to a very slow start (as of yesterday), compared to previous auctions. However, it is still early, and floor bidding is a bit down the road. I do not have your experience in these matters, but my gut tends to agree with you.

doh

I like your idea that coins around and below $5K will hold their value or even increase. I think that's true.

mommam17

Doesn`t look like nice toned commems are dropping. The Texas NGC 66 and Oregon NGC 66 in Heritage Fun action, that I was tracking, are both over $1000. I am out on both. Glad I know that now. Don`t follow the big $$$$$ items.

ziggy29

<< <i>Doesn`t look like nice toned commems are dropping. The Texas NGC 66 and Oregon NGC 66 in Heritage Fun action, that I was tracking, are both over $1000. I am out on both. Glad I know that now. Don`t follow the big $$$$$ items. >>

Maybe it's like regional housing markets. The markets that didn't bubble over a few years ago aren't crashing today. Maybe long-moribund segments of the coin market (like commems) won't fall much because they have risen much lately, either...

nycounsel

Coins I own will drop 50%.

Coins I want will go up 50%.

Same as every year.

PTVETTER

I think that Sooooo much will depent on the new administration's view on taxes. If in fact the new leadership tries to take from the rich and just give to the poor, we are all in trouble not just coin collectors.
On the other hand is the congress stays the tax course with only small changes, then the coin market will be just fine. Time will tell.

cohodk

When a ship sinks, it takes all aboard.

291fifth

My guess is that the decline will be greater than 20% and that coins in nearly all value ranges will be affected. Many of the wealthy (or perhaps formerly wealthy) have been seriously impacted by this economic decline. There will be a few "trophy" coins that resist the downward trend.

Many auction lots will fail to meet reserve. Liquidity on the bourse floor will decline as dealers have "bad" shows or buy coins for favored clients only to find that those clients are "out of the market for now."

Problem and "market acceptable" coins will plummet in value.

I don't know what modern coins will do. This seems to be a market unto itself and one I personally have no interest in. Is it really just a one way market? If it is, the declines could be stunning.

RYK

Lots of interesting responses here.

I think that the unreserved coins in the Heritage sale will set the tone.

I think the 20% number is a good starting point, but it really depends a lot on the series, the level of interest, the history of the level of interest, the coins that are available on the market, and many other things.

With the exception of commonly sold items like generic Saints and Morgans, there is often no price level for which to compare. Unless we are talking about the same exact coin selling in 2009 that sold in 2007-2008, an 1841-O $10 in AU-50 (as an example) has no defined price level. Will the next 1797 half dime in XF-40 sell at a price higher and lower than the last XF-40 that sold? Well, it depends in large part on which of the coins is really nicer. If one is a dipped out pig in NGC XF-40 that sold in early 2008 and the other a nice, original coin in an OGH with a gold CAC sticker for sale in 2009, the nicer coin will still undoubtedly sell for more money in the upcoming year. Of course, the dog may not have a buyer at any price, and when this happens, it is very hard to put a number on the drop in its value.

ambro51

I don't like two thousand and nine. Its scary.

I wanna go back to 1971.

I had fun that year.

ColonialCoinUnion

I believe it will depend entirely on the coin, not at all on the price range.

dbldie55

<< <i>I think that Sooooo much will depent on the new administration's view on taxes. If in fact the new leadership tries to take from the rich and just give to the poor, we are all in trouble not just coin collectors.
On the other hand is the congress stays the tax course with only small changes, then the coin market will be just fine. Time will tell. >>



The current congressional leadership is responsible for where we are now, and I see little reason to believe they will not go along with the "new administrations" take from the rich beliefs (since that is their belief as well). I see nothing rosy in our immediate future.

JCMhouston

I read last night where the major auction haouses are seeing art drop 20-30% from previous auctions, I would suspect we'll see something similar in the high end. With the less expensive stuff, say under $2k the market could hold up pretty well. Some of that will be the high rollers going down market, and some will be people like me who are seeing prety rare coins they can finally afford. My average purchase is probably around $4-500, although I have splurged up to $1200 for a coin. I'm prepared mentally to spend $2k on a coin, it's just that the rare pieces always seemed to go well above that, now some of them may get back to levels I'm comfortable with.

carl

I've been collecting for well over 60 years now. Never saw coin prices drop. Level off a bit but never drop. I just went to one of the many coin shows around me. The coin prices of all coins was higher than ever. No coins were down in price. I don't think they will drop regardless of anything.

Wolf359

<< <i>My guess is that the decline will be greater than 20% and that coins in nearly all value ranges will be affected. Many of the wealthy (or perhaps formerly wealthy) have been seriously impacted by this economic decline. There will be a few "trophy" coins that resist the downward trend.

Many auction lots will fail to meet reserve. Liquidity on the bourse floor will decline as dealers have "bad" shows or buy coins for favored clients only to find that those clients are "out of the market for now."

Problem and "market acceptable" coins will plummet in value.

I don't know what modern coins will do. This seems to be a market unto itself and one I personally have no interest in. Is it really just a one way market? If it is, the declines could be stunning. >>



Every post you make is endless hand-wringing doom and gloom. Go crawl under a rock.

robkool

Can't wait !!! I will be able to afford all those rarities...

lordmarcovan

If the prediction in the OP is dead-on, then I should be just fine. I have never crossed over that $5,000/coin value threshold. Mostly, I like to stay under $500/coin. If coins made in the last 25 years take a hit, it will only affect me a little bit, since I usually try to stick to the older stuff, though I do play with nice shiny modern stuff on occasion.

Doogy

For US coins maybe...........scarce/rare world coins seem to show no desire to slow down at all in our current world economic landscape, in fact just the opposite is happening. A recent Swiss coin auction broke world records for in several categories, for individual coins and for net price realized.

I predict that 6 and 7 figure world coins will continue to appreciate this year, as the trend is showing, and as US coins in the same category are declining. I can only guess that the reason that so many 6 and 7 figure world coins are breaking records right now is two-fold; foreign investors are getting out of our stock market (or stock markets in general) and putting their resources in something more "hard", and a lot of other mega-rich out there aren't hurting as bad as our top 1% in this country.

elwood

The few coins I'm tracking look like they will bring at least what they have brought in the past. If not more.

dizzyfoxx

<How much will coin prices drop in 2009 ?>

The one's I currently own? I'm sure quite a bit. The one's I've sold? I'm sure not at all.

Cladiator

I will make an official prediction of gold prices for the year 2009 that you can hold me to, I will not edit this thread.


Prediction: The price of gold will both rise and fall in 2009. Possibly not in that order though.

roadrunner

There will plenty of coins making new highs in 2009. Those coins were not readily available from 2002-2008.

roadrunner

MidLifeCrisis

<< <i>...many coins with price tags over $25,000 will drop...coins valued at less than $5,000 will most probably hold their value... >>


Well, this reads a lot like a horoscope. It's really too general to mean anything. What coins over $25K will drop? Will $5K coins hold their value, or won't they? The obvious answers are:
1. Nobody knows.
2. It depends on the coin.


<< <i>...1794 dollars will decrease in value by 20% across the board in 2009...a 1909 S VDB lincoln cents in ms 67 red will decrease in value from $150,000 to between $100,000 and $125,000. However a 1909 s VDB in ms 66 red will hold its value at between $15,000 and $18,000....What are your views and comments ? >>


OK, a couple of specific coin types. Now that's better. Still, I have two observations:
1. Even with 1794 dollars and 1909 S VDB Lincoln Cents, it depends on the coin.
2. Given the choices you list for S VDB Lincolns, I'd take the MS 66 Red any day! Such an increase in price to 67 Red is just crazy!

BAJJERFAN

Frankly, I have no idear. I don't play in the over $25K market, but unless I knew that a bunch a stuff was comin up I'd be hard pressed to make a prediction. A lot of the stuff I watch doesn't seem to be goin for cheap money. I know what I'd be buyin in my area of interest if I had the funds.

quickwing

Unlike most recessions of the past 50 years, this current environment seems to be having a much broader stroke. The middle class (who ever they are) seem to take it on the chin most often in downturns, not the wealthy. I believe this time around more than just the middle class will be humbled. I could very easily see most all price points on coin sales and auctions go down 20% or more. Of course the OP Stewart Blay would know and understand the fluctuations of coin prices and their cause much better than myself.

anablep

Its hard to believe that the coin market is recession-proof. I'd guess there will be some kind of slow down in auction sales, attendance to shows, submissions to TPG, etc.

Beyond that, it is probably unwise to speculate about what coins at different values will decrease/increase in price. There is no way to predict what coins will, and anyone who thinks they can is fooling themselves...

GritsMan

I'd also guess all coins across the board will take a hit. Since I collect mostly Moderns, I'm guessing there will be some great opportunities in "glamour coins" that reached silly levels (perhaps due to hoarding by dealers?) These include:
*1995W proof silver eagles
* 2006 RP Gold Eagle
* almost all MS70 and PF70 slabbed Moderns

On the other hand, Moderns with solid fundamentals--and broad distribution--should hold their own:
* 1991 half-ounce unc gold eagle
* Smithsonian gold unc commem
* gold fractional buffs

I also believe that this is a great time to build collections of Moderns that may have taken unrecognized hits during the recent run-ups of platinum and gold. Some of the mid-date proof plats (2000, 2001) sell for near spot now, but I'm guessing may prove more rare in the future because they've been melted in large quantities.

Ha! We'll see!

DeepCoin

I have a bit of a contrarian view here. I think coins from $1000 to $5000 will take the biggest hits, while truely special coins in the over $50K category will remain strong.

For the most part, I think the market has a bottom. Coin collectors for expensive coins are not your average demographic and I suspect as a group they have not been damaged as badly as the rest of the country. This is based upon being older, owning their home for many years and having equity and being slightly risk averse in general. Now that is a very broad brush, certainly with many exceptions but I am looking at the big picture, not any specific individual.

You will know the coin market is in the tank when places like Legend start having fire sales. That is my barometer for the coin market going way under.

Time will tell, it will be interesting to see this post next New Year's. Stuart, put it on your reminder list to see how you did in 12 months.

Type2

But most of my coins are at face value if they drop 20% I'll lose what will I do.

lasvegasteddy

<<<But most of my coins are at face value if they drop 20% I'll lose what will I do.>>>

hopefully your coins won't drop more then 20% as i'm not even sure about face as a predicition

joecopper

Unless there is a major stampede to sell, I think that properly graded coins will hold value, if not increase. I base this view on the fact that serious collectors will continue to build there collections - the availability of the aforementioned material is not going up. I am not currently into IHC's or Lincoln's but expect that a really nice 1914-D XF45-AU50 has demand, same for a 1878 IHC. We shall see.

Bear

Since the coin market is a multi track

market, we will see variable loses in

each segment in a down market. Some of

those big ticket coins could take a very big

dollar wallop. Remember, we live in a world

composed of cycles. Things go up in price

and then they come down in price. Most collectors

will just weather the coming storm.

LoveMyLiberty

State Quarters will still be worth 25c,,,you can take that to the bank!!!

jdimmick

I agree with CRO, I dont think the price range matters as much as the coins themselves. I can name several in the less than 5k range that are going to fall like boat anchors IMO, as well as some that will sustain or level out.

The bullion based coins will depend on the PM market!!

Placid

2009 looks to be off to a good start. Current Bid: $220,000 ($253,000.00 w/Buyer's Premium (BP)
Time Remaining: 8d 4h 54m

PCGS Price Guide 68 $200,000

cladking

I should think the largest gains will continue to be in moderns; this will
especially apply to world coins. The growth in demand is simply torrid
and the supply is not increasing on these. Indeed, since many are dirt
cheap still the attrition is far higher than on the valuable older coins. Un-
employment would have to hit impossibly high numbers to stop the de-
mand growth.

There will continue to be some increases in the very high value US and
this especially applies to rare type and a few popularly collected better
dats. Look for more increase in demand for "entry level" coins and the
types of things that attract beginners.

Some coins may go begging if the economy doesn't revive soon but there
will be bottom shoppers that will support prices at lower levels. Rather
than a crash as is typical we might see a steady erosion in most coins un-
til such time as the economy resumes growth.

MrEureka

How's the OP's prediction looking now?