How much do you think the final hamer will be on the two vdbs?
ChrisRx
Posts: 5,619 ✭✭✭✭
Ok I admit they are both a little homely (I actually like the 64 more than the 65) but what do you all think?
PR64 RB NGC
PR65 RB NGC
PR64 RB NGC
PR65 RB NGC
0
Comments
2)woof
You'd be buying for the sake of completing the set, not for the eye appeal here. I'm sure they'll still get decent money though due to the scarcity.
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/showcase/2819
Edited to add:
If it looks like a true 64rb in hand I think it will fetch 30-340k otherwise 25-30k or reserve not met
there's 2 vdb mattys up???
tha 64 has a better gutt feel to me too
i'll leave my guess at reserve not mets
<< <i>
i'll leave my guess at reserve not mets
Teddy,
I agree!
My thoughts about the 09VDB MPL is that a collector who needs the coin to complete the set will grab it IN ANY CONDITION as long as he/she can AFFORD it. That being said, I believe there are a number of collectors here who would "jump on" either of these two coins for less than $10k. The question is will the sellers let the coins go for that price. My guess is NO. The coins are certainly not eye appealing. I personally like the looks of MY PR61RB better than either of those two. Both coins are in NGC slabs so they will need crossovers to get them into the PCGS Set Registry. No doubt that will cause a downgrade and that fact has probably already been played into the bidding. The reserves post on New Year's eve. If the reserves are less than $20k I believe some buyer will take a shot. Over $20k and I don't think the coin will sell. In this case, the grades on the label don't mean much unless the potential buyer is hooked on NGC. Bottom line here is to check on the reserves on New Years and if you can afford it (ie) under $20k, go for it because you don't get many opportunities to aquire this coin. If the reserve is over $20k and you can afford it my guess is you will wait for a nicer coin. You will see nicer coins in future auctions, BUT they will cost you lots more than these two examples will. JMHO. Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
looks like woodgraining on the obverse, but its not on the reverese. No real spotting, which is a plus.
Still very tempting.......................
Actually brothers, I like the 65 better. While I realize the pics are crappy, the 64 looks to have outside influences on it (namely spots) while the 65 seems relatively clean.
My opinion is (remember now, I've never seen these coins in hand)....
Don't know what the reserve is but I think the 65 will draw a bid north of $25,000.
If a brother is daring enough to get those spots off the 64, he just might be able to steal it.
65 - Reserve - $14,000
64 - No Reserve - Bid at $10,000
woof1 (figuring 50/50 on a PCGS 63BN/RB if it doesn't bb): $13,000 (plus the juice).
woof2 (a PCGS 64RB all day long): $22,000 (plus the juice ).
But don't you think that the assumption should be made (AT LEAST by those that have NOT seen them in hand) that these were ALREADY denied (probably multiple times) a PCGS slab at the above assumed PCGS grades of a mere point lower (but w/the same color designation)?
btw, seeing them in hand here in Dallas indicates (AS USUAL) that the images on their site leave MUCH to be desired (especially the ones OUT of the slabs).
Thanks for the commentary. That will be one of my '09 resolutions--not to jump to quickly to conclusions. They may be very nice coins and I was a bit harsh. There are nice NGC coins out there (I have a few myself)
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/showcase/2819
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
And no, that was not intended as sarcasm.
Empty Nest Collection
Matt’s Mattes
<< <i>Today also, two 1990 no S coins are in the auction for rather reasonable prices. >>
This afternoon, the PR68 PCGS coin sold for $5,750 with the juice and the PR69 NGC coin sold for $7,475 with the juice.
Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
I'm glad I'm out on the 64. Still might chase the 65 as I have no doubt it's a PCGS 64RB all day long.
Despite the POLL, I'd rather not be in a PCGS MS63 for 14k+ (especially if it BN's).
<< <i>
Says it all...
Empty Nest Collection
Matt’s Mattes
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/showcase/2819
Empty Nest Collection
Matt’s Mattes
a pcgs slab.
AND making that info publicly available.
Wouldn't you like to know that info for these coins? Is that not in the spirit of full disclosure and complete disemmination of market information?
Would that NOT benefit the consumer? Would that not factor into your bids?
Is it not time for an end to self-serving policies?
You are saying "seller be damned?"
Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
<< <i>I really think that THE GRADING SERVICE does the entire collecting community a diservice by not tracking how many times another slab (with a uniquely identifiable number) didn't cross (as well as the circumstances if bb e.g.)
AND making that info publicly available.
Wouldn't you like to know that info for these coins? Is that not in the spirit of full disclosure and complete disemmination of market information?
Does PCGS track the slab #'s of failed crossovers in case they see them again?
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/showcase/2819
Just in, brothers:
1909 VDB PR64RB NGC went off at $14,000 ($16,100)
1909 VDB PR65RB NGC went off at $15,000 ($17,250)
Please elaborate.
If I'm reading you right (and I acknowledge that might be a BIG if) you think my suggestion would be a bad thing (for sellers?).
Wouldn't it put all on equal footing?
<< <i>Just in, brothers:
1909 VDB PR64RB NGC went off at $14,000 ($16,100)
1909 VDB PR65RB NGC went off at $15,000 ($17,250) >>
Wow that was a steal. Even if they both downgrade. I would be ok with that 64
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/showcase/2819
<< <i>Why wouldn't the seller of the 65 cross at any. A PCGS 64RB lists for $37,500. Is it that overgraded? >>
Perhaps the grade is correct on the 65 but the eye appeal doesn't look to be there. Lack of eye appeal is a price killer.
The 64 looks to have carbon spots and I think that hurt it. Without seeing it in hand, I still think it went off at a pretty good price.
I'll be sure and call Brian Wagner next week and get his take on the two.
<< <i>Steve,
Please elaborate.
If I'm reading you right (and I acknowledge that might be a BIG if) you think my suggestion would be a bad thing (for sellers?).
Wouldn't it put all on equal footing? >>
Roger,
In this case if the NGC PF64 failed to cross to PCGS three times and the NGC PF65 failed to cross to PCGS two times and this information was made public by PCGS I could see a couple of problems. #1 might be NGC sueing PCGS for disclosing the fact. #2 might be the seller suing PCGS for disclosure because the potential buyer might have "thought" the coin was a "sure cross" and bid based on that assumption. If the potential buyer KNEW the coin had failed to cross he might not have bid or bid lower. The two coins that sold tonight for mid-teen prices were in my opinion a "steal". The 65 went to the internet bidder and the 64 went to the auction live bidder. We will probably see if they cross to PCGS shortly. Assumming they make it into the PCGS slabs the buyers got a great deal. If anyone here got one, good luck on the cross.
Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
I am not sure if they do keep track of other TPG coins/numbers on cross over’s. But they do keep track of PCGS coins resubmitted for grading. I had a MS 66 1909 VDB I thought was DDO #2. When it was rejected the first time, I sent it back. When it was rejected the second time, I called and found out the coin had been resubmitted 6 previous occasions and explained why it lacked the DDO#2. Now if I had been told this, I would have not resubmitted it, or better yet, sent it in at all. But the way I figure it, they made over $160 minimum on this one coin, and hard telling how many times it will be sent in again. Sounds like cash cow for them.
WS
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
I agree that we may see some lower pricing on MPL's in the coming months. But I draw the line with the 09VDB MPL. You can look at Bob's latest list of MPL's for sale this week. Every MPL except the 09VDB is represented. Even the 1916 for sale on EBAY!!!. The 09VDB is a SPECIAL coin IMHO. It cannot be grouped with the other 8 MPL dates for one special reason. Dealers just don't have that coin available to sell in EITHER an NGC or PCGS holder. If ANY dealer had that coin they could sell it by private treaty to their own list of clients very easily. The two NGC coins that sold yesterday will easily be absorbed into "strong hands". I wish you and all others here who want this coin for their collection good luck in the future, but again, IMHO yesterday was the best chance of getting this coin at what would currently seem like a good price. The mid teens price may have been too much money for some, but the chance to aquire the 09VDB at lower prices in the future seem less likely to me because over 80% of the PCGS versions are PR64 or higher and IN REALITY we are talking only about 150 coins total in PCGS,NGC & ANACS holders after "allowing" for maybe 20 crossovers & crackouts. Those coins ARE and will remain in "strong hands" IMHO. Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
i was expecting at least doubled+ reserves and them not acquiring reserves but those prices when compared to last years
they just don't make sense the prices achieved...to me anyways
a total shake up for the vdb matty's i see it
<< <i>a total shake up for the vdb matty's i see it >>
I'll lodge a disagreement: While they might both be good value purchases, they are by no means total rips. Look at what you have there. My guess is that at least one of those coins may be a straight up BB at PCGS, whose only use to the registry will be to fill the hole as a "genuine". The other, if it does cross, will either downgrade or be rightfully marginal to below average for comparable PCGS graded coins. Taking all that into consideration, it seems that both coins closed right about where they should have.
And seriously, given the strong prices commanded by PCGS coins, do you seriously believe that any owner of these coins would let them be auctioned off without trying in earnest to cross them into PCGS plastic???
No, I believe that the assumption on the auction floor, and across the internet world was that these were both likely downgrade candidates at best, and "GENUINE" candidates at worst, and this is further evidence that the real basal value of a VDB Proof in any condition is right around $15K, as suggested earlier.
And a sincere congrats to the new owners. Enjoy your piece of Lincoln Cent History!
Empty Nest Collection
Matt’s Mattes
<< <i>
I believe that the assumption on the auction floor, and across the internet world was that these were both likely downgrade candidates at best, and "GENUINE" candidates at worst, and this is further evidence that the real basal value of a VDB Proof in any condition is right around $15K, as suggested earlier.
And a sincere congrats to the new owners. Enjoy your piece of Lincoln Cent History! >>
Matt,
I agree. This was one auction in which the collectors who can afford to be "picky" on a 09VDB MPL stayed away from bidding as expected. Will we see 09VDB MPL's come to auction in the future where nicer examples are up for bid and those bidders who can and will pay $30k+ for this variety continue to stay away? Time will tell.
Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
it's all good as i just "call um how i see um" as we all do...i don't disagree with what you've stated and i sure hope i'm wrong too in my take
myself i'm thinking this economy tanked and repercussions are spilling forth
- Bob -
MPL's - Lincolns of Color
Central Valley Roosevelts
<< <i>
<< <i>a total shake up for the vdb matty's i see it >>
I'll lodge a disagreement: While they might both be good value purchases, they are by no means total rips. Look at what you have there. My guess is that at least one of those coins may be a straight up BB at PCGS, whose only use to the registry will be to fill the hole as a "genuine". The other, if it does cross, will either downgrade or be rightfully marginal to below average for comparable PCGS graded coins. Taking all that into consideration, it seems that both coins closed right about where they should have.
And seriously, given the strong prices commanded by PCGS coins, do you seriously believe that any owner of these coins would let them be auctioned off without trying in earnest to cross them into PCGS plastic???
No, I believe that the assumption on the auction floor, and across the internet world was that these were both likely downgrade candidates at best, and "GENUINE" candidates at worst, and this is further evidence that the real basal value of a VDB Proof in any condition is right around $15K, as suggested earlier. >>
Basal? Are you sure?
Just because these coins might not get into the right piece of plastic doesn't make them basal. They are clearly much nicer than that.
Do ALL the collectors of these coins really only collect plastic?
<< <i>Do ALL the collectors of these coins really only collect plastic? >>
In a word ... no.
<< <i>
<< <i>Do ALL the collectors of these coins really only collect plastic? >>
In a word ... no. >>
It has been said before, but the PCGS registry is a genius piece of marketing. For PCGS it brings fees, but for coin dealers and auctioneers it's clearly added many thousands of dollars to the price of certain coins.
<< <i>
Basal? Are you sure?
Just because these coins might not get into the right piece of plastic doesn't make them basal. They are clearly much nicer than that.
Do ALL the collectors of these coins really only collect plastic? >>
I'm sure Matt didn't mean Basal in the literal sense. Unfortunately, the market currently does consider PCGS plastic for MPL's worth more for similiar grades than NGC. Obviously, there are NGC graded coins out there that would cross to PCGS at the same or maybe higher grade, but right now, AS FAR AS MPL's ARE CONCERNED, the market treats PCGS graded coins in general with a higher value than NGC graded coins IMHO. Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
Empty Nest Collection
Matt’s Mattes
Under what legal basis would you assert that EITHER NGC OR the current (i.e. recent) seller would have a sustainable cause of action against PCGS?
I'd assert that PCGS would face NO liability by disseminating information that was factual UNLESS a prior agreement existed that would have precluded them from doing so.
Quite puzzling that you actually appear to be arguing AGAINST further transparency.
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
I can appreciate that potential BUYERS of coins want to know as much of their history as possible. Sellers, it seems to me, would rather not have these buyers aware that a particular coin they wished to sell had been bodybagged (ie) or put into a genuine holder and then cracked out previously, one, two or more times. Now you could argue that the TPG should inform everyone of that fact and ineffect reduce the value of such coins. It would also cause the TPG to lose some business particularly from the crackout game IMHO. I just don't think it is going to happen.
Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
Steve,
Of THAT I have NO DOUBT.
Sort of a shame though and a slap in the face of consumers/collectors as well as those that argue for more transparency, etc.
<< <i>"I just don't think it is going to happen."
Steve,
Of THAT I have NO DOUBT.
Sort of a shame though and a slap in the face of consumers/collectors as well as those that argue for more transparency, etc. >>
Roger,
Unfortunately, and I DO mean unfortunately, there is no Santa Claus in numismatics.
Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry