How much do you think the final hamer will be on the two vdbs?

ChrisRx

Ok I admit they are both a little homely (I actually like the 64 more than the 65) but what do you all think?


PR64 RB NGC

PR65 RB NGC

lusterlover

1)woof
2)woof

You'd be buying for the sake of completing the set, not for the eye appeal here. I'm sure they'll still get decent money though due to the scarcity.

BWRC

ChrisRx

Well I would need to see that 64rb in hand first but if I felt it would cross at the same grade (don't think it would but its hard to tell from Heritage pictures) I would spend 20k on it if I had the funds available.

Edited to add:

If it looks like a true 64rb in hand I think it will fetch 30-340k otherwise 25-30k or reserve not met

lasvegasteddy

i used to have a feel for final hammer prices but this economy has me for a loop

there's 2 vdb mattys up???

tha 64 has a better gutt feel to me too

i'll leave my guess at reserve not mets

Steve

<< <i>

i'll leave my guess at reserve not mets >>



Teddy,
I agree!

My thoughts about the 09VDB MPL is that a collector who needs the coin to complete the set will grab it IN ANY CONDITION as long as he/she can AFFORD it. That being said, I believe there are a number of collectors here who would "jump on" either of these two coins for less than $10k. The question is will the sellers let the coins go for that price. My guess is NO. The coins are certainly not eye appealing. I personally like the looks of MY PR61RB better than either of those two. Both coins are in NGC slabs so they will need crossovers to get them into the PCGS Set Registry. No doubt that will cause a downgrade and that fact has probably already been played into the bidding. The reserves post on New Year's eve. If the reserves are less than $20k I believe some buyer will take a shot. Over $20k and I don't think the coin will sell. In this case, the grades on the label don't mean much unless the potential buyer is hooked on NGC. Bottom line here is to check on the reserves on New Years and if you can afford it (ie) under $20k, go for it because you don't get many opportunities to aquire this coin. If the reserve is over $20k and you can afford it my guess is you will wait for a nicer coin. You will see nicer coins in future auctions, BUT they will cost you lots more than these two examples will. JMHO. Steve

ambro51

I could live with the 64 but I think it would grade a PCGS PR63RB (maybe even BN looking at the small slab pic on the other images)
looks like woodgraining on the obverse, but its not on the reverese. No real spotting, which is a plus.

Still very tempting.......................

curly

Actually brothers, I like the 65 better. While I realize the pics are crappy, the 64 looks to have outside influences on it (namely spots) while the 65 seems relatively clean.

My opinion is (remember now, I've never seen these coins in hand)....

Don't know what the reserve is but I think the 65 will draw a bid north of $25,000.

If a brother is daring enough to get those spots off the 64, he just might be able to steal it.

ProofCents

VDB's with 6 days left

65 - Reserve - $14,000
64 - No Reserve - Bid at $10,000

RBinTex

My current top bids will not hold up for long but:

woof1 (figuring 50/50 on a PCGS 63BN/RB if it doesn't bb): $13,000 (plus the juice).
woof2 (a PCGS 64RB all day long): $22,000 (plus the juice ).

But don't you think that the assumption should be made (AT LEAST by those that have NOT seen them in hand) that these were ALREADY denied (probably multiple times) a PCGS slab at the above assumed PCGS grades of a mere point lower (but w/the same color designation)?

btw, seeing them in hand here in Dallas indicates (AS USUAL) that the images on their site leave MUCH to be desired (especially the ones OUT of the slabs).

lusterlover

RBTex,

Thanks for the commentary. That will be one of my '09 resolutions--not to jump to quickly to conclusions. They may be very nice coins and I was a bit harsh. There are nice NGC coins out there (I have a few myself)

Steve

This should be a"fun" few days before the 2 coins are auctioned next week at FUN. I think the competition will be between a few dealers trying to make a steal and possibly a few collectors trying to complete their MPL set. I can't see any of the major players going after either of these coins unless they really look much better in hand. I do hope that one of the regulars here who would REALLY want this coin for his set but can't really afford the prices we have seen in the past couple of years is able to somehow convince himself that this is the time to act. I know it is easy to say that with the economy in the tank and possibly the coin hobby ready to implode also, we will see lower prices on this rare coin. I may be wrong, but I still believe these 09VDB MPL's will hold up in value because they are so rare and DEALERS JUST DON'T HAVE THEM FOR SALE. It will be interesting to see if at least one of these coins can be gotten for mid-teen pricing. In any case, good luck to anyone here who is going for them. JMHO. Steve

COALPORTER

What's lead to such a dramatic price increase? Those were only 5K 9 years ago. Is something behing it? (manipulation maybe?)

Steve

Today, January 7th is the last day for internet bidding on the two NGC coins. Current bids are $11k + juice for the PR64 and $14k + juice for the PR65. The auction is tomorrow and it seems to me a great opportunity for someone (dealer or collector) to get a rare Lincoln cent proof coin at a very favorable price. Good luck to anyone here going after either of these coins. Today also, two 1990 no S coins are in the auction for rather reasonable prices. We will know soon how all these coins do. Steve

pennyannie

I may try for the 64. To be honest i would be happy with a 58. I will never own a 50k coin, no desire to play in that world. I want a complete set but will not spend $$$$$ just to do it.

renomedphys

No matter what the hammer, remember that these are NGC coins, and should not affect the values of our beloved and correctly graded PCGS coins.

And no, that was not intended as sarcasm.

Steve

<< <i>Today also, two 1990 no S coins are in the auction for rather reasonable prices. >>



This afternoon, the PR68 PCGS coin sold for $5,750 with the juice and the PR69 NGC coin sold for $7,475 with the juice.
Steve

RBinTex

Current bids: 13k & 15k respectively (+ the juice).

I'm glad I'm out on the 64. Still might chase the 65 as I have no doubt it's a PCGS 64RB all day long.

Despite the POLL, I'd rather not be in a PCGS MS63 for 14k+ (especially if it BN's).

renomedphys

<< <i>




>>



Says it all...

lusterlover

Now now, they can't all be monster toned gems. These may be very nice coins and if someone here picks them up, I say good for you and enjoy your piece of history.

renomedphys

Right-ee-oh! I guess I lost sight of the fact that for certain coins, like 1794 dollars, chain cents, and maybe even VDB Proofs there's a place for tooled, whizzed, dipped out and recolored "genuine" coins, and any of us would and should be proud just to hold the real McCoy.

ambro51

I'd never buy any VDB matte that wasn't kosher in a slab.

a pcgs slab.

RBinTex

I really think that THE GRADING SERVICE does the entire collecting community a diservice by not tracking how many times another slab (with a uniquely identifiable number) didn't cross (as well as the circumstances if bb e.g.)
AND making that info publicly available.

Wouldn't you like to know that info for these coins? Is that not in the spirit of full disclosure and complete disemmination of market information?

Would that NOT benefit the consumer? Would that not factor into your bids?

Is it not time for an end to self-serving policies?

Steve

Roger,
You are saying "seller be damned?"
Steve

lusterlover

<< <i>I really think that THE GRADING SERVICE does the entire collecting community a diservice by not tracking how many times another slab (with a uniquely identifiable number) didn't cross (as well as the circumstances if bb e.g.)
AND making that info publicly available.

Wouldn't you like to know that info for these coins? Is that not in the spirit of full disclosure and complete disemmination of market information?


Does PCGS track the slab #'s of failed crossovers in case they see them again?

curly

Just in, brothers:

1909 VDB PR64RB NGC went off at $14,000 ($16,100)

1909 VDB PR65RB NGC went off at $15,000 ($17,250)

RBinTex

Steve,

Please elaborate.

If I'm reading you right (and I acknowledge that might be a BIG if) you think my suggestion would be a bad thing (for sellers?).

Wouldn't it put all on equal footing?

ChrisRx

<< <i>Just in, brothers:

1909 VDB PR64RB NGC went off at $14,000 ($16,100)

1909 VDB PR65RB NGC went off at $15,000 ($17,250) >>



Wow that was a steal. Even if they both downgrade. I would be ok with that 64

lusterlover

Why wouldn't the seller of the 65 cross at any. A PCGS 64RB lists for $37,500. Is it that overgraded?

curly

<< <i>Why wouldn't the seller of the 65 cross at any. A PCGS 64RB lists for $37,500. Is it that overgraded? >>



Perhaps the grade is correct on the 65 but the eye appeal doesn't look to be there. Lack of eye appeal is a price killer.

The 64 looks to have carbon spots and I think that hurt it. Without seeing it in hand, I still think it went off at a pretty good price.

I'll be sure and call Brian Wagner next week and get his take on the two.

Steve

<< <i>Steve,

Please elaborate.

If I'm reading you right (and I acknowledge that might be a BIG if) you think my suggestion would be a bad thing (for sellers?).

Wouldn't it put all on equal footing? >>



Roger,
In this case if the NGC PF64 failed to cross to PCGS three times and the NGC PF65 failed to cross to PCGS two times and this information was made public by PCGS I could see a couple of problems. #1 might be NGC sueing PCGS for disclosing the fact. #2 might be the seller suing PCGS for disclosure because the potential buyer might have "thought" the coin was a "sure cross" and bid based on that assumption. If the potential buyer KNEW the coin had failed to cross he might not have bid or bid lower. The two coins that sold tonight for mid-teen prices were in my opinion a "steal". The 65 went to the internet bidder and the 64 went to the auction live bidder. We will probably see if they cross to PCGS shortly. Assumming they make it into the PCGS slabs the buyers got a great deal. If anyone here got one, good luck on the cross.
Steve

WaterSport

Does PCGS track the slab #'s of failed crossovers in case they see them again?

I am not sure if they do keep track of other TPG coins/numbers on cross over’s. But they do keep track of PCGS coins resubmitted for grading. I had a MS 66 1909 VDB I thought was DDO #2. When it was rejected the first time, I sent it back. When it was rejected the second time, I called and found out the coin had been resubmitted 6 previous occasions and explained why it lacked the DDO#2. Now if I had been told this, I would have not resubmitted it, or better yet, sent it in at all. But the way I figure it, they made over $160 minimum on this one coin, and hard telling how many times it will be sent in again. Sounds like cash cow for them.

WS

pennyannie

I would rather be in one of these 2 than be in a vdb for 50k. I REALLY wanted to bid on 1 of them but think the prices are still going to come down. I have a lot of time to wait for a nicer one to come out. It would not surprise me to see them in a PCGS holder in a few weeks at a lower grade. I personally think a lot of coins did not sell well and just a start of things to come. I do not think that all the good coins are in strong hands and they will appear on the market. MPL's were hyped and hyped over the last 18 months and prices went up daily it seems, reality is setting in and prices will re adjust to reflect that. There are some fantastic MPL's in the PCGS registry that will probably be immune to price adjustments, but the bulk will not.

Steve

Mark,
I agree that we may see some lower pricing on MPL's in the coming months. But I draw the line with the 09VDB MPL. You can look at Bob's latest list of MPL's for sale this week. Every MPL except the 09VDB is represented. Even the 1916 for sale on EBAY!!!. The 09VDB is a SPECIAL coin IMHO. It cannot be grouped with the other 8 MPL dates for one special reason. Dealers just don't have that coin available to sell in EITHER an NGC or PCGS holder. If ANY dealer had that coin they could sell it by private treaty to their own list of clients very easily. The two NGC coins that sold yesterday will easily be absorbed into "strong hands". I wish you and all others here who want this coin for their collection good luck in the future, but again, IMHO yesterday was the best chance of getting this coin at what would currently seem like a good price. The mid teens price may have been too much money for some, but the chance to aquire the 09VDB at lower prices in the future seem less likely to me because over 80% of the PCGS versions are PR64 or higher and IN REALITY we are talking only about 150 coins total in PCGS,NGC & ANACS holders after "allowing" for maybe 20 crossovers & crackouts. Those coins ARE and will remain in "strong hands" IMHO. Steve

lasvegasteddy

well i blew that one in my thoughts of reserves not met

i was expecting at least doubled+ reserves and them not acquiring reserves but those prices when compared to last years

they just don't make sense the prices achieved...to me anyways

a total shake up for the vdb matty's i see it

renomedphys

<< <i>a total shake up for the vdb matty's i see it >>



I'll lodge a disagreement: While they might both be good value purchases, they are by no means total rips. Look at what you have there. My guess is that at least one of those coins may be a straight up BB at PCGS, whose only use to the registry will be to fill the hole as a "genuine". The other, if it does cross, will either downgrade or be rightfully marginal to below average for comparable PCGS graded coins. Taking all that into consideration, it seems that both coins closed right about where they should have.

And seriously, given the strong prices commanded by PCGS coins, do you seriously believe that any owner of these coins would let them be auctioned off without trying in earnest to cross them into PCGS plastic???

No, I believe that the assumption on the auction floor, and across the internet world was that these were both likely downgrade candidates at best, and "GENUINE" candidates at worst, and this is further evidence that the real basal value of a VDB Proof in any condition is right around $15K, as suggested earlier.

And a sincere congrats to the new owners. Enjoy your piece of Lincoln Cent History!

Steve

<< <i>

I believe that the assumption on the auction floor, and across the internet world was that these were both likely downgrade candidates at best, and "GENUINE" candidates at worst, and this is further evidence that the real basal value of a VDB Proof in any condition is right around $15K, as suggested earlier.

And a sincere congrats to the new owners. Enjoy your piece of Lincoln Cent History! >>



Matt,
I agree. This was one auction in which the collectors who can afford to be "picky" on a 09VDB MPL stayed away from bidding as expected. Will we see 09VDB MPL's come to auction in the future where nicer examples are up for bid and those bidders who can and will pay $30k+ for this variety continue to stay away? Time will tell.
Steve

lasvegasteddy

no need in here to lodge disagreements...it's just part of an open community here

it's all good as i just "call um how i see um" as we all do...i don't disagree with what you've stated and i sure hope i'm wrong too in my take

myself i'm thinking this economy tanked and repercussions are spilling forth

robec

I don't think the market has tanked on these. As what has been said, even though it is the most desirable coin in the set, if you're going to plop down $15k, you are going to want to put it on a coin that has no potential of being a problem or is hard to look at. When/If I spend $15k-$30k on a coin, I want to make sure I enjoy what I'm looking at and not buy just to fill a hole.

lasvegasteddy

true there bob but i hope no one here takes anything i have to interject here as from a credible source...i love ya all like brothers

thelawnet

<< <i>

<< <i>a total shake up for the vdb matty's i see it >>



I'll lodge a disagreement: While they might both be good value purchases, they are by no means total rips. Look at what you have there. My guess is that at least one of those coins may be a straight up BB at PCGS, whose only use to the registry will be to fill the hole as a "genuine". The other, if it does cross, will either downgrade or be rightfully marginal to below average for comparable PCGS graded coins. Taking all that into consideration, it seems that both coins closed right about where they should have.

And seriously, given the strong prices commanded by PCGS coins, do you seriously believe that any owner of these coins would let them be auctioned off without trying in earnest to cross them into PCGS plastic???

No, I believe that the assumption on the auction floor, and across the internet world was that these were both likely downgrade candidates at best, and "GENUINE" candidates at worst, and this is further evidence that the real basal value of a VDB Proof in any condition is right around $15K, as suggested earlier. >>



Basal? Are you sure?

Just because these coins might not get into the right piece of plastic doesn't make them basal. They are clearly much nicer than that.

Do ALL the collectors of these coins really only collect plastic?

DMWJR

<< <i>Do ALL the collectors of these coins really only collect plastic? >>




In a word ... no.

thelawnet

<< <i>

<< <i>Do ALL the collectors of these coins really only collect plastic? >>




In a word ... no. >>



It has been said before, but the PCGS registry is a genius piece of marketing. For PCGS it brings fees, but for coin dealers and auctioneers it's clearly added many thousands of dollars to the price of certain coins.

Steve

<< <i>

Basal? Are you sure?

Just because these coins might not get into the right piece of plastic doesn't make them basal. They are clearly much nicer than that.

Do ALL the collectors of these coins really only collect plastic? >>



I'm sure Matt didn't mean Basal in the literal sense. Unfortunately, the market currently does consider PCGS plastic for MPL's worth more for similiar grades than NGC. Obviously, there are NGC graded coins out there that would cross to PCGS at the same or maybe higher grade, but right now, AS FAR AS MPL's ARE CONCERNED, the market treats PCGS graded coins in general with a higher value than NGC graded coins IMHO. Steve

renomedphys

I had given my "BASAL" comment some thought afterwards, and yes, you guys are right. These coins are clearly a lot nicer than say an impaired proof 60, or something just fugly, but nevertheless, likely without the ability to acquire PCGS plastic, these coins fall below a line established for those coins which will ultimately be useful for registry purposes. That was the basal line to which I was referring. The one that reads something like "PCGS Genuine", or perhaps "PR63BN". Frankly, I would be proud to own a nice PGCS 63BN for my second set, as I believe anybody here would. What would I pay for it? About $15K sounds right to me. A "genuine" though? Maybe more like $5K. JMHO.

RBinTex

Steve,

Under what legal basis would you assert that EITHER NGC OR the current (i.e. recent) seller would have a sustainable cause of action against PCGS?

I'd assert that PCGS would face NO liability by disseminating information that was factual UNLESS a prior agreement existed that would have precluded them from doing so.

Quite puzzling that you actually appear to be arguing AGAINST further transparency.

Steve

Just one more comment for all the MPL folks who would like to someday have a complete nine coin set of MPL's in the PCGS Set Registry. The current rules state that in order for this set to REMAIN in the All Time listing AFTER you sell some or all of the set, the set must be at least 90% complete. Obviously, unless you have the 1909VDB the maximum you can have is 88.89% complete. I know that when I eventually sell my set I would want it to remain on the PCGS Set Registry all time list. I mention this so everyone realizes what the current rules are. Maybe PCGS will modify them. Steve

Steve

Roger,
I can appreciate that potential BUYERS of coins want to know as much of their history as possible. Sellers, it seems to me, would rather not have these buyers aware that a particular coin they wished to sell had been bodybagged (ie) or put into a genuine holder and then cracked out previously, one, two or more times. Now you could argue that the TPG should inform everyone of that fact and ineffect reduce the value of such coins. It would also cause the TPG to lose some business particularly from the crackout game IMHO. I just don't think it is going to happen.
Steve

RBinTex

"I just don't think it is going to happen."

Steve,

Of THAT I have NO DOUBT.

Sort of a shame though and a slap in the face of consumers/collectors as well as those that argue for more transparency, etc.

Steve

<< <i>"I just don't think it is going to happen."

Steve,

Of THAT I have NO DOUBT.

Sort of a shame though and a slap in the face of consumers/collectors as well as those that argue for more transparency, etc. >>



Roger,
Unfortunately, and I DO mean unfortunately, there is no Santa Claus in numismatics.
Steve