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11/27/2008 US Mint Stats - Just Released + "W" Unc Series Platinum Recap
COINB0Y
Posts: 4,505
Nov. 27th, 2008 Mint Stats
Looks like 2006 W Unc Plats are still the KING of the Series, ...its not even close.
"W" Series Platinum Recap
$100 Coin (2006) 3,068 vs.(2007 w ) 4,177+ vs.(2008 w ) 3,138 and climbing
$50 Coin (2006) 2,577 vs.(2007 w ) 3,635+ vs.(2008 w ) 3,415+/-
$25 Coin (2006) 2,676 vs.(2007 w ) 3,690+ vs.(2008 w ) 4,081+/-
$10 Coin (2006) 3,544 vs.(2007 w ) 5,556+ vs.(2008 w ) 4,643+/-
Burnished 4-Coin Sets (2006) 1,997 vs.(2007 w ) ?? + vs.(2008 w ) 2,158 +/-
2006 W Unc = 11,865 Coins
2007 W Unc = 17,058+ Coins
2008 W Unc = 15,277+ Coins with 1 oz still for sale
Edit: Updated per ericj96
Looks like 2006 W Unc Plats are still the KING of the Series, ...its not even close.
"W" Series Platinum Recap
$100 Coin (2006) 3,068 vs.(2007 w ) 4,177+ vs.(2008 w ) 3,138 and climbing
$50 Coin (2006) 2,577 vs.(2007 w ) 3,635+ vs.(2008 w ) 3,415+/-
$25 Coin (2006) 2,676 vs.(2007 w ) 3,690+ vs.(2008 w ) 4,081+/-
$10 Coin (2006) 3,544 vs.(2007 w ) 5,556+ vs.(2008 w ) 4,643+/-
Burnished 4-Coin Sets (2006) 1,997 vs.(2007 w ) ?? + vs.(2008 w ) 2,158 +/-
2006 W Unc = 11,865 Coins
2007 W Unc = 17,058+ Coins
2008 W Unc = 15,277+ Coins with 1 oz still for sale
Edit: Updated per ericj96
0
Comments
I think a better term might be "Orders taken that exceed available inventory"
I love it!
You get better Mint stats with a computation of sales/compare to melt, etc.
It is much better than NN! (NN HAS YET TO POST this week)
CoinNews.Net
Hmmmm.......Well for what it is worth, I cancelled my sets on Back Order.
I consider you a modern expert on this forum.
What are your thoughts on the 2008-W Proof Buffalo series???
I see a future frenzie on these babies...especially with the last year of fractionals!!!!
Talk to me!!!
Your Pal,
GB
I knew it would happen.
First, we KNOW that the burnished uncirculated platinums are history. I believe that the days of sub 5,000 mintages are over for the time being.
Second, the issue price on these was approximately 1200/oz. This is a decent premium to melt at current melt price, but is cheap compared to where platinum was a few months ago. I won't predict that platinum will return to $2200 any time soon, but a return to $1200 + (breakeven at melt) certainly seems possible. Of course, that's just a downside protection if these end up with zero numismatic value over melt. I don't expect that to be the case.
I think a good argument exists for pretty much all the uncirculated platinum coins right now. Low mintages and minimal downside risk.
I think on the Plats, I would yield to ericj98, Dan (nycounsel), Nero and especially, Mitch (wondercoin).
______________
The Buffalo Gold and especially the Fractionals (to me) are simply stunning coins Proof or MS.
Lets just think beyond the Fractionals for a moment, those coins are given winners.....
What is really amazing to me is that the $50 2008 W Proof Buffalo will come in with a Mintage that is a mere FRACTION of either the 2006 W or the 2007 W Coins !!
It is already sold out at only 20K Coins!! That's half a Hag's Mintage! You say 20K is a lot? Everything is relative, my dear! With everything (in the Buffs) being pulled and dropped in 2009, without a doubt the $50 2008 W Proof could be the Key Proof Coin for the entire $50 series as long as the Mint keeps on stamping them out!
Now, pssst...here is an even better deal, the $50 2008 W Mint State Buff ! ....with the 4-Coin set going Dark in the morning, *POW!* we may only have 15K of these one year wonders in existence! With such a large Gold Collector's Base that sucked up the 2006 & 2007 Coins, it seems to me you can't go wrong holding these!
Hey, Mitch you out there? What do you think on these 2008 W Buffs?
Edited to add: Thanks for the site. Got it BMed.
Regards,
John
1947-P & D; 1948-D; 1949-P & S; 1950-D & S; and 1952-S.
Any help locating any of these OBW rolls would be gratefully appreciated!
Sets went dark at 1257.
Qtrs at about 1100, Tenths at 2046.
Halfs are never produced in excess of qtrs. Look for the halfs to be around 1100 as well.
I wouldnt be so sure about the new keys yet.
Numbers will be decreasing for the next 3 weeks for "over subscribed" orders......or whatever you want to call all those orders in excess of inventory.
IMO, you have met your new keys - they are the 08-w PLAT UNC's..........all those who returned them will be crying about that move for years....
---------2006---------2007-------2008
$100....3068..........4177.........3138 and rising
$50......2577..........3635.........3415
$25......2676..........3690.........4081 and falling
$10......3544..........5556.........4643 and falling
2006 and 2007 are final final.
The sales numbers are not coins struck or shipped. It reflects orders only and sets a cap on how many coins there could be but does not tell us the striking run totals. The mint is taking more orders that it has coins to protect itself from coin speculators that have the nasty tendency to buy large volumes of coins and then dump them back on the mint. It needs enough orders in hand to cover this expected speculative dump for about 35 days.
The sales report is going in reverse right now on quarters and tenths as expected. We will need to see how the report goes for the halves this week. The 2006-w material my endure as modern rarity kings but its too soon to tell because we do not know if the going back order at 1250 coins on the four coin set was the real number and the rest of the sales could be butt covering by the mint.
I agree that the tenth, quarter and one oz Buffs are a fine buy and its important to pick some up.
NOTE: ALL THE "COMMON DATE" PLATINUM W EAGLE HALVES WILL FINISH OUT RARER THAN THE "RARE" 1936 PROOF WALKER! LOOK THROUGH YOUR RED BOOK. THEY RUN ALL OVER ALL OTHER TYPE COINS SINCE THE END OF THE FIRST WORLD WAR!
1st Post now corrected, but still need the 2007 W Set Number?
<< <i>Half -
Sets went dark at 1257.
Qtrs at about 1100, Tenths at 2046.
Halfs are never produced in excess of qtrs. Look for the halfs to be around 1100 as well.
I wouldnt be so sure about the new keys yet.
Numbers will be decreasing for the next 3 weeks for "over subscribed" orders......or whatever you want to call all those orders in excess of inventory.
IMO, you have met your new keys - they are the 08-w PLAT UNC's..........all those who returned them will be crying about that move for years.... >>
opps, thought you were talking about the 4 coins sets.
Stop gulping down the KOOLAID, put down the glass for a minute.....
Sets went dark at 1257.......Orders went beyond that number.....how many times do we have to explain this?
2008-W Unc Plats
1 oz 1,250
1/2 oz 1,100
1/4 oz 1,100
1/10 oz 2,100
Sets 1,250
Look at the TOTAL Coins, sales or NOT, you have 31% difference.
As hard as you might want to pump this 2008 W story, it is deflating out the other end.
<< <i>Half -
Stop gulping down the KOOLAID, put down the glass for a minute.....
Sets went dark at 1257.......Orders went beyond that number.....how many times do we have to explain this? >>
OK let's try this again....
4 coins sets IMO did not go dark at 1257. The 1257 was the Sunday before they went dark, not the Sunday after. So sales i-n-c-r-e-a-s-e-d past 1257.
Also nobody knows what orders were placed after 1257 until they actually went backorder the following Thursday. If sales ran up to 2165 then it is easy to see backorder happened at 1500.
4 cons set sales NN sequence:
1053 11/21
1257 11/25
************* Backordered here between 1257 and 2165
2165 12/02
2158 12/09
Not deflating at all.
I'm on this sales report bs like flys on sh&t. Their fear of excessive returns like in July was the go ahead to take orders galore to ensure ALL STOCK WAS SOLD.
The USM has taken excessive orders - huge amts over available stock......i'm not going to re-post my points, they are well documented on the forum.....
The orders will now show SIGNIFICANT decreases over the next 2-3 weeks, already the 1/4 has shown a 192 piece decrease in the first week of returns-the 30 day period just expired - a whopping 9% in ONE WEEK.
The set, 1/2 and 1/10 will all follow suit.
IMO, look for mintages to be very very very low. My opinion, sub 06-w, not by much, but still new kings.
I would bet the farm on a sure thing:
The Fractional Buffs or for that matter, all of the "W" Buffs, Proof or Mint State as laid out in the earlier post.
I should be fair.
Your opinion at this point is as good as mine.
1250 is as good as 1500, 1750, 2000 or 2158.
I take 1250.
We'll see where it lands.
<< <i>IMO - the numbers will correct and look like this - (and I have no KOOL AID stains on my mouth...just a little pun for those who COVET the weekly sales reports)
2008-W Unc Plats
1 oz 1,250
1/2 oz 1,100
1/4 oz 1,100
1/10 oz 2,100
Sets 1,250 >>
Doesn't it seem reasonable to assume the mint is tracking what they have in stock as they use that when ordering?
So if they know what is in stock then we have to assume all orders before backorder are in stock. If they are in stock that means they are physically at the warehouse.
So at backorder they have no more in stock, or at the warehouse.
That is where they starting taking additonal backorders to fill returns.
If the 4 coin sets went past 1257 then they were still in stock. That means more than 1257 4 coin sets, more than 1253 1/2 coins too. How much more will be what we find out by the next moon landing I hope.
I like the 1/4 unc, and also the 1 oz unc, for varying reasons.
No one can explain the lack of interest in the 1/4 proof (which should be huge) or why the 1 oz unc hasnt sold out yet......
The 1/10's are too small to appreciate the design.
The proofs have a following - those who want them have purchased. Not so sure the market (base) is there for gains.
If you consider the 2008 W w/ 2007 W Reverse as a sub-series, I would speculate that the 2008 W Silver now at 413,631 - 47,000 = 366K could be the 2nd lowest
1. 2008 W w/ 2007 W Reverse = 47K
2. 2008 W = 366K now maybe to 400K
3. 2006 W = 470K
4.) 2007 W = 500k+
= I didn't get much of these ;>
I love ya, 7/8 !!
Eric already posted what the USM considers as sales.
ORDERS TAKEN.
Bears no resemblence to actual coins available for sale.
Typically, in years past, the b/o point included a small buffer of orders in case some cc's etc did not get honored.....Ericj96 has quoted this at around 10-15%
I'm in all of these. Just no feeling the love for the Buff's. They were worth the risk at lower premiums this time around. If you believe in PM's, this trade isnt a hard one to do.
You take a shot. Popular design. That's the ticket.
But i didnt load up on the tenths, still think that thing is waaaay to small to appreciate the design.
<< <i>Half -
I should be fair.
Your opinion at this point is as good as mine.
1250 is as good as 1500, 1750, 2000 or 2158.
I take 1250.
We'll see where it lands. >>
The mint is playing with us to keep everyone is suspense. They can't do that with the buffaloes though.
1. There is a lot of low level excitement about them right now. this thread about plats went there right away.
2. I predict that all the fractions will be the lowest mintage in the series.
--jerry
Soon, we will know the real numbers.
<< <i>Uncirculated Platinum Eagles Mintage Figures
---------2006---------2007-------2008
$100....3068..........4177.........3138 and rising
$50......2577..........3635.........3415
$25......2676..........3690.........4081 and falling
$10......3544..........5556.........4643 and falling
2006 and 2007 are final final.
I agree that the tenth, quarter and one oz Buffs are a fine buy and its important to pick some up. >>
Eric,
Just curious but how come you don't like the $25 or 1/2 oz. Buffs?
There is no reason, (especially since the US Mint changed Sales Vendors last year), that the ACCURACY of the Sales verses Final Mintage should DECREASE!!
I'm sorry, but saying the new vendor is off the mark by 40% or more, is preposterous!
<< <i>Half -
Eric already posted what the USM considers as sales.
ORDERS TAKEN.
Bears no resemblence to actual coins available for sale.
Typically, in years past, the b/o point included a small buffer of orders in case some cc's etc did not get honored.....Ericj96 has quoted this at around 10-15% >>
Right, but when you order it says if the product is in stock or not. I don't think they take additional orders that says in stock when they have none.
So Backorder happens when they run out of in stock product IMO.
What this translates to is at backorder they are out of stock.
So if backorder happened past 1257 then at 1257 they still have in stock product. Maybe at 1300 they still had in stock product. Maybe 1400 or 1500.
Only the fly on the wall knows.
<< <i>
<< <i>IMO - the numbers will correct and look like this - (and I have no KOOL AID stains on my mouth...just a little pun for those who COVET the weekly sales reports)
2008-W Unc Plats
1 oz 1,250
1/2 oz 1,100
1/4 oz 1,100
1/10 oz 2,100
Sets 1,250 >>
Doesn't it seem reasonable to assume the mint is tracking what they have in stock as they use that when ordering?
So if they know what is in stock then we have to assume all orders before backorder are in stock. If they are in stock that means they are physically at the warehouse.
So at backorder they have no more in stock, or at the warehouse.
That is where they starting taking additonal backorders to fill returns.
If the 4 coin sets went past 1257 then they were still in stock. That means more than 1257 4 coin sets, more than 1253 1/2 coins too. How much more will be what we find out by the next moon landing I hope. >>
The problem the mint has is that guys like me returned 80% of ordered Plats that 1st week in Aug. I bet 50%+ of all early sales of unc. 2008-W plats got returned.
Fast forward to Nov.
I refilled my order at lower prices but still sent back 2 sets Wednesday PM.
I don't know how fast they learn but I'm one who also suspects they over sold figuring a high rate of returns.
Remember they know this is last call......they don't want any coins left to go to smelter if there is any chance they could be sold first.
Best way to ensure none left even after returns is to over sale.
I take this as another challenge.
You have been on vacation for awhile, it takes a little while to get back into the swing of things....
Let's see......1/4 oz unc-w plat..........backorder on 10/21 5:30pm or so, 615 coins sold as of 10/21 mid afternoon.
1500 more orders taken within the next 7 days. Total 2115 orders.
No substantial deliveries of orders after 10/21 5:30pm for over one month (to date)
Returns of weak handed buyers start to be sent back, in time for the 30 day return
Next sales report shows only 1938 orders......
WOW how could that happen?
Guess what?
It's gonna happen again next week, and the next and the next.
Take the 1/4 oz unc-w plat down to 1100 or so.......
San Diego, CA
The US Mint did not swap out the old Point of Sale System with a new P.O.S. System so they could be LESS Accurate.
The new Vendor is 10X better than PSWeb (the old).
Selling remaining stock is.
Take orders to ANY point in excess of inventory to ensure you have enough to suck up ANY returns.
And in July/August 08, the returns on these things was ENORMOUS!
If I am not mistaken, while the sets bumped up by 900, the individual coins sat still. Isn't that correct? That's my basis for thinking that the sets are overstated by 900. Well, that and the fact that I agree with 7over8 on his deductions.
I knew it would happen.
Some base their opinions on evidence they collect, others just shoot from the hip..........
The 1/4 being the closest in size to the beloved Buffalo Nickel, big enough to see and appreciate the design. The 1/4 prf should be gone.
The 1/2 in the set or alone is a dog too. The prosperity set blows that coin.
The 1/10 is too damn small.
<< <i>I also am suprised the 2008 1/4 oz buffalo proofs have not sold out. >>
Maybe they made 14,000 of the proof vs. 10,000 of the UNC.
It is still a low mintage proof but like with the plats we have to wait and see where the chips fall.
<< <i>Call me crazy, but I still think that there is a good chance that the set numbers are off by 900. >>
I think you may be right. The set numbers may have been over-stated by 900 due to a typo.