Out of the 17,000,000+ coins that PCGS has graded...

Blackhawk

...how many are still in their original holders? How much of the total count is made up of crack-outs and regrades? Any guesses?

DoubleEagle59

I'm thinking perhaps 20% are crack-outs and regrades. (I'm also including crack-outs from other companies that find their way into PCGS holders).

2manycoins2fewfunds

1-3%

commoncents05

20% is high, I would say no more than 5%

-Paul

Blackhawk

Judging by the relatively small number of coins for sale in the earlier holders, my guess is that a lot more are resubmitted to PCGS or it's competitors than you might guess. Of course there's more being graded now, so that might be the reason for so many in the blue holder.

PerryHall

At least 20%.

fc

i guess we would need to see a timeline showing the amount
graded over time...

if only one million were graded in the first seven years... with 10 million
being graded in the last 10 years... i would say most are in their
original holders.

flip the values above and i could see an easy 20% have been cracked out.

pmac

<< <i>At least 20%. >>


One in five get cracked out? This seems extremely high. Is this percentage what you crack out?

doh

doh

5% or less have been cracked out and resubmitted. Now, if you're talking the number of crackouts just to keep the coin raw, that number is much higher.

WTCG

The consensus between dealers is that the overall total is about 10%-15%. The rate is higher for coins that are premium quality with a large price difference between the existing grade and the next higher grade. The rate is lower for common date coins while bullion and modern coins are very seldomly cracked out.

09sVDB

Atleast three because I have them.

dizzyfoxx

Most likely somewhere in the .00000000000001% vicinity. Crackouts and attempted upgrades are more prevalant than sand at the beach IMO.

PerryHall

<< <i>

<< <i>At least 20%. >>


One in five get cracked out? This seems extremely high. Is this percentage what you crack out? >>



I don't play the crackout game and my 20% was just a guess based on the many threads here asking about cracking out and crossing coins. Also I hardly ever see the older style holders anymore. While many of these older holders are collecting dust in established collections, many others have been destroyed by collectors trying for the upgrade or others that want the most up-to-date holder style.

Barry

12

robkool

Approx. 12 ~ 15%...

notwilight

20% might be right on a 66 saint with a pop of 50 and the 67 grade is worth 10x more, the top 5 coins might have been cracked and resubmitted a dozen time (which leads to inflated inaccurate pops for the 66).

But of the tens of thousands of moderns that I have graded and sold in the last few years much much less than 1% of them were or ever will be cracked out.

--Jerry

nicetoning42107

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>At least 20%. >>


One in five get cracked out? This seems extremely high. Is this percentage what you crack out? >>



I don't play the crackout game and my 20% was just a guess based on the many threads here asking about cracking out and crossing coins. Also I hardly ever see the older style holders anymore. While many of these older holders are collecting dust in established collections, many others have been destroyed by collectors trying for the upgrade or others that want the most up-to-date holder style. >>



This is subject to response bias and shouldn't be used as a sampling method. People talk about cracking out, crossing, etc. looking for advice or to boast and there is that motivation to make a topic. Why make a topic about keeping a coin inside of a holder? If everyone made topics about all the coins they kept inside of their holders all these years there would be at least 10 times as many as the cracking out/crossing topics, hence the 10 to 15 percent.

Aegis3

Here's an idea, though it'd be a fair deal of work. You might want to consider concentrating only on a series or two, like Morgans or Saints or Walkers. Something there's be plenty of slabbed, and been that way since 1986.

1) Get a hold of as complete a set of PCGS & NGC pop reports you can get. Note the increase in populations between each report.

2) Get a hold of Conder's slab histories. Correlate the slab types with the pops in the reports. He has at least done part of this.

2a) Figure out, if there were no resubmissions, what percentage range of each slab type you'd expect to see.

3) Attend all the lot viewings for the auctions involved with either the winter FUN or summer ANA show. Note the slab types for each lot.

4) Compare the actual percentages of slab type found with that expected. Form some conclusions.

Of course, this method does have some pitfalls, especially with regards to #3. I think you'd see an overcount of the most recent slab type, and an undercount of slab types which have been tightly held for years or decades, let alone the lesser-known companies. But it should give you at least a high estimate of resubmission numbers.

tightbudget

My estimate is 15-20%

mozin

<< <i>My estimate is 15-20% >>