Are we seeing the decline of the 1975-1980 baseball sets?

theczar

I know SMR is not the final answer on everything, but the latest issue shows another decline in the price of commons for these sets. Major stars and low pops will always command a premium but there may be fewer low pops as time marches on.

The 1975 set is a very popular set so demand will be there, but for some of others prices seem to be on the downhill.

1960toppsguy

definitely, way too much of that stuff in the market. I think TOPPS will print you some of any of those years if you just give them a call at Tel: 212-376-0300.

WinPitcher

I think the decline reaches well before 1975 and extends beyond 1980.

Steve

hammered

This is an interesting question and one I have considered many times.
I collected 75-79 as a kid and still do, they are also the years I sell, so it is of concern to me. Allow me to wax philosophical...
Prices have gone down from a few years ago, but that was when the registry was new and collectors were going crazy. High prices were paid back then for low pops when collectors should have realized that those pops wouldn't be low forever. My opinion is that long term these years will rebound, even if we never again see prices quite that high...
People collect cards to relive the enjoyment they had as kids (at least that's why I do). Those who collected 75-79 as say, 8-10 year olds will soon be in their 40s. This is often the time when people become more financially stable and nostalgic. Kids are grown, finances are stable, and who the hell can afford to collect anything in their 20s and 30s anyway?
I think that over the next 5 to 10 years, more people who collected as kids will achieve the means and time to pursue these hobbies again, so the future is still bright for 75 to 79 IMO.

sfmays24

You are correct, Sir!

My Boys and I collect 1974-1982 Topps Sets... pre-grading style, raw.

Mike

Estil

I still have to finish up my 1974-79 sets with the PSA 7's listed below. Not to mention my 1977 set still needs some major upgrades on some of the commons (about 70 or so).

Morgoth

In the future only bulk submitters can make money on those years. If you hit a homerun with low pops or high demand HOFs you can do ok but what about the other 700 cards in the set? People buying those years are used to $3 PSA 8 commons and $10 at most PSA 8 stars.

One thing people don't mention much is that since the prices are way down on these years, nobody is submitting them. This means collectors can't finish or move forward in their sets so their interest dimishes and they just sell rather than add 1 or 2 card a month.

MCMLVTopps

Czar,

I think the decline in SMR is not a logical gauge to the market value of a card, set or particular year.

I have found SMR values to be so far off as to be laughable. An example would be in the 55 Topps set, card # 3, Art Fowler. This card has been advertised in SMR as an $80.00 card in a PSA 8 for years and years. Nowhere on this planet are you gonna find this card for much less than $1k. Though I have actually brought this to the attention of SMR at the highest level, it remains an $80 card (See page 53 of the Jan issue). I could easily cite numerous other examples of the gross inadequacies of SMR. When you read the "company line" on "The Goal of SMR", page 40 of the same issue - it never changes. That statement is a proven fallacy. I doubt anyone at PSA "scours" anything relating to card sales...if they do, they have certainly missed the boat with the 55Topps set.

I would not use SMR as the be all, end all of card prices. Simply put, the market value of a card in any condition is whatever a buyer is willing to pay for the card. Star cards will continue to hold value, while commons may sink...why? Several thoughts here:

#1 The submission of raw cards that move the POP report up and up. Simple supply and demand.

#2 I think "crack outs" inflate the true POP data. IOW, if someone cracks a PSA 7 and it comes back a PSA 7, the POP for that card has been inflated by one "ghost" card. The original that never got taken out of the POP, and now the same card has self-generated into a second "ghost" PSA 7. This has to be prevalent with a ton of cards, perhaps mostly in the PSA 7 and PSA 8 arena, as some owners try to catch the brass ring by turning a lower valued PSA 7 into a PSA 8. I've done it myself. The money can be HUGE.

#3 Values may be dropping because of the economy. Perhaps sellers need the $$ and are putting their cards on eBay or here to sell. What amazes me is that they are not protecting their investment by not putting Reserves on their cards. Many that I've watched have gone for a song compared to what they cost just a few years ago. Buyers seeking bargains are simply not putting in the bids seen not long ago for the identical card and grade. Some folks just don't have the funds to bid and perhaps are on tight budgets.

#4 High end sets, like the 55 Topps set were avidly collected a few years ago with monster bids. Once the high end (big money) bidders finished their sets, the lower echelon of collectors came in, but were in the lower percentiles in terms of Registry standings. Many high end PSA 9s and some PSA 8s were simply gone from the market place because of very low POP numbers. Some cards come up very rarely, but command a price the current market cannot bear, thus the buyer pool is constricted. POP increases do happen in this set, but as time passes, it has become more of a rarity. I think increases in this set are directly related to crack outs...simply can't be that much "pure raw" in the field. 53 years is a long time for cards in pure raw condition to survive and come out as PSA 8s and 9s.

#5 There is (IMO) something perhaps buyers do not realize, perhaps sellers as well, when the POP of a card comes into their buying decision. As an example, let's say a certain card has a "LOW pop" of say 25 and is advertised on eBay as such. This may be true in terms of PSA data, however, if you research that particular card in the Registry and see that say 12 are already tied up in either complete sets, team sets, player sets, etc, etc, then you see that the "TRUE POP" of this card is really 13, thus a bit more rare card than as advertised. You simply have to subtract the particular card from the Registry set(s) to see how rare the card really is, Registry folks aren't selling their cards, and in essence those 12 cards cited above are "locked up".

In summary, SMR is a mere guide (IMO), NOT a pure reflection of the current market. I am pretty tuned in on the 1955 Topps set, and I gotta say, some (many) of the SMR prices are really waaaay out of whack. I think that over time some sets will improve in value, the 55T set being one of them, especially in the PSA 8 range. Other sets may well decline because of increases in POPs of cards within the sets. I think the 80s and beyond have far too many cards in the marketplace and may well decline because of this. The 70s will take some time (IMO), but time is exactly what will increase these values. Additionally, more collectors are needed, which will certainly boost the value of cards. Like you, I live close to a very large city, I have never seen PSA advertise anything about card collecting. With the baby-boomers retiring in droves, and the deiscretionary funds they may have, I would think some well placed advertisements would tend to nudge some folks into card collecting...just a thought.

As I know you personally, I hope your collecting of that "special set" continues to go well. Happy Holidays to you and yours.

Regards,
Al

MiniMaster

Al, excellent points you make

One little tid bit I'd add is that PSA's system of placing SMR value based on PSA 8 market prices is somewhat unusual in that the PSA 8 populations will increase far more than those of PSA 9's for most sets pre-1980. This leads to an inevitable downward spiral of value with PSA's current system as populations of these cards are not going to decline. They would be far better off creating SMR prices from PSA 9 market prices. The populations would be less diluted with cracked case re-subs.

I would still agree that SMR values need to be based on current market value vs. using the avg. selling price of PSA 8 graded cards. In this computer age we live in it wouldn't be to difficult to monitor current market values.... in fact it's already being done by other service providers. Perhaps the SMR should just be stories/ads with prices listed only on cards and other collectables listed with market value over $50-$100? Unless the values listed are accurate what use are they anyways?

Morgoth

SMR pricing doesnt change the issue that besides 1975 it seems the supply vastly outweighs the demand in most cases for PSA 8 graded cards from 1973 to now. I have seen alot of people abandon their PSA graded sets and go all raw as you can find them fairly easily in nm-mt shape or even better. There will be some guys with deep pockets competing in PSA 9 or better sets but unless its 1975s I don't see much value right now in doing it.

hammered

Well, even if prices on the 70's have gone down a little, it's good to know cards from the 80's are still going strong...


">1989 Topps set

Farmkidd

Hammered,
That is hillarious!! Maybe the seller meant to put in $100.....

Wait, that's pretty hilarious too, maybe $10? (shipping included?)

Dboneesq

The seller forgot to say that all the cards are in PSA 10 holders and he is just showing the box because it would take too long to put all the cards in the auction.

Morgoth

I just paid $30 bucks for a 1982 Donruss set with a PSA 8 Ripken, so $10 for a 1989 Set is sadly still a little strong.

K

<< <i>Hammered,
That is hillarious!! Maybe the seller meant to put in $100.....

Wait, that's pretty hilarious too, maybe $10? (shipping included?) >>



I paid $12 for my 89 PSA 10 Ripken. So yeah I'd say $10 is a bit strong.

This is a little more accurate: WHAT A DEAL!!!

PowderedH2O

I know this is a couple of weeks after the post, but since I just saw it I must agree with Al about all he says. I know that when I am looking at a set and I see that there are maybe two PSA 10's of a card and say twelve 9's, but there are 75 people in the registry, if I want a 9 or 10 I am going to have to pay. Period. I've got so many raw cards that I need to get graded, and you better believe it will be the ones that I am going to have the most trouble finding. If I want a 9 and the guy with the number 3 registry set has one, do you think he's going to sell it to me? Not likely....

Morgoth

Low pops and 9 HOFs are not the issue with 70s sets. Its the price of the 8s that are killing them. Dealers and collectors can't expect 80% of all submissions to be 9s but to make money it almost has to be.

NickM

From '76-'80, 9s aren't profitable any more on most commons. As far back as '72, 8s aren't profitable on most commons (with significant portions of '68-'70 that are the same way).

Nick

MintMoondog

Those years are completely worthless! Please send your high grade 75 minis and 77s my way.

DavidPuddy

Yes,
The bottom has fallen out of 1977 Topps PSA 10's. It would be a good time to get rid of those if you have them.
Don't worry, I'm willing to bail you out. Send them all to me and I'll give you $1.00 each, so you don't lose your entire investment.

theczar

The bottom has fallen out of 1977 Topps PSA 10's. It would be a good time to get rid of those if you have them.
Don't worry, I'm willing to bail you out. Send them all to me and I'll give you $1.00 each, so you don't lose your entire investment.


i already did that will my 401K!

RonBurgundy

To answer the original question, yes and the drop won't stop anytime soon. To make matters worse, the only money to be had is with PSA 9's and 10's which is only going to prompt the nefarious card physicians to amp up their efforts, which in turns ups the population reports, which ultimately cannibalizes the market.

I've got so much 70's gradeable stuff that I don't even think about sending it in anymore, for those reasons. PSA would have to offer a $1 special to even get me to think about it.


Ron Burgundy

bobbybakeriv

In value? Probably. In sheer beauty to the aesthetically astute? NEVER!

MintMoondog

To be honest - I do not believe it is a supply issue as much as a demand issue. There are just fewer collectors and most of us are a dying breed - getting old...the Bonds/McGwire/Sosa fiasco rightly took out the speculators. The true collectors are so narrow it is laughable. Each year probably has no more than a half dozen to a dozen serious collectors of PSA material. Take a second and really think about what that means in a country as large as the US.

mmsportscards

In psa holders yes. Ive seen a boost in raw collectors from the 70's. No shortage in the raw collectors.