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Totaly unpredictable

coolestcoolest Posts: 2,281 ✭✭✭
in Precious Metals
Last year when the world economy was fairly stable and predictable the PM prices were all over the place.
Now that the world economy is chaotic the PM prices are flat-line.
Doesn't economics 101 teach the opposite of what we are seeing? I am confused!

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    DeadhorseDeadhorse Posts: 3,720 ✭
    You're simply watching manipulation at the highest levels.
    "Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
    John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
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    RedTigerRedTiger Posts: 5,608 ✭
    Recession, depression, means industrial demand is falling off a cliff. For example: platinum demand is down because fewer cars are being made (cars use platinum in their catalytic converters). Car sales are down like 30%.

    Trillions of dollars in net worth have been wiped out by the declines in real estate and stocks world wide. There is less money to chase metals. A good many hedge funds had significant money long oil and gold, and a good many were forced to sell to meet redemptions, or in a few cases, margin calls.

    As I have written many times, commonly known fundamental information isn't very useful for short term trading. For the long term, stuff that is commonly known, in theory, should not be all that useful either. In theory, all the known information is "in the price." In practice, of course, it doesn't work that way, there are inefficiencies, and varying interpretations. Take for example a multicolored beach ball with panels. A person on one side might say the beach ball is red because that is the panel closest to them. The person on the other side sees a yellow panel facing. Both are absolutely correct in terms of their point of view. So it is with markets--there are a lot of points of view. For every short term trade made, the buyer thinks the price is going up, the seller thinks it is going down. When the price moves, one of them is wrong. In theory, both the buyer and seller are looking at the same information, it is their point of view or interpretation that leads them to different actions.



    Investment blog: gold, stocks and more
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    DeadhorseDeadhorse Posts: 3,720 ✭


    << <i>Recession, depression, means industrial demand is falling off a cliff. For example: platinum demand is down because fewer cars are being made (cars use platinum in their catalytic converters). Car sales are down like 30%.

    Trillions of dollars in net worth have been wiped out by the declines in real estate and stocks world wide. There is less money to chase metals. A good many hedge funds had significant money long oil and gold, and a good many were forced to sell to meet redemptions, or in a few cases, margin calls.

    As I have written many times, commonly known fundamental information isn't very useful for short term trading. For the long term, stuff that is commonly known, in theory, should not be all that useful either. In theory, all the known information is "in the price." In practice, of course, it doesn't work that way, there are inefficiencies, and varying interpretations. Take for example a multicolored beach ball with panels. A person on one side might say the beach ball is red because that is the panel closest to them. The person on the other side sees a yellow panel facing. Both are absolutely correct in terms of their point of view. So it is with markets--there are a lot of points of view. For every short term trade made, the buyer thinks the price is going up, the seller thinks it is going down. When the price moves, one of them is wrong. In theory, both the buyer and seller are looking at the same information, it is their point of view or interpretation that leads them to different actions. >>




    That's all well and good, but it doesn't explain the clear manipulation in the metals market.

    Just watch the 10 AM takedown that occurs everyday on a regular basis just as sure as the sun rises in the east.
    "Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
    John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
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    MoneyLAMoneyLA Posts: 1,825 ✭
    manipulation? is there a conspiracy theory?

    no. I think the markets are simply reacting to all sorts of factors, and every day a different factor takes control.

    some days its inflation, other days its recession. other days its the strength of the dollor or the weakness of the dollar. or it might be weakness in a foreign economy....

    manipulation? why do you need manipulation? reality is enough to create change.
    Cheers, Alan Mendelson
    www.AlanBestBuys.com
    www.VegasBestBuys.com
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    DeadhorseDeadhorse Posts: 3,720 ✭


    << <i>manipulation? is there a conspiracy theory?

    no. I think the markets are simply reacting to all sorts of factors, and every day a different factor takes control.

    some days its inflation, other days its recession. other days its the strength of the dollor or the weakness of the dollar. or it might be weakness in a foreign economy....

    manipulation? why do you need manipulation? reality is enough to create change. >>






    And all this happens at 10 AM every morning? I'm not disagreeing with you at all. It's just that it seems extremely odd that it always occurs at the exact same time every morning. That's the part I find very hard understand under normal or even abnormal market conditions.
    "Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
    John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
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    roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    There are multi-year charts showing a pattern on morning Comex where price levels are nearly always lower than in the afternoon, and lower than corresponding time periods on foreign metal exchanges. These differences well exceed anything beyond mathematical probabilities.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
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    garsmithgarsmith Posts: 5,894 ✭✭


    << <i>Last year when the world economy was fairly stable and predictable the PM prices were all over the place.
    Now that the world economy is chaotic the PM prices are flat-line.
    Doesn't economics 101 teach the opposite of what we are seeing? I am confused! >>




    It's called false manipulation of the market
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    ttownttown Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭
    Just keep in mind that gold is at near highs in other parts of the world. Those thinking gold is done are taking the bet that the sudden big rise in the dollars value as compare to other currenies like the EURO is about right. Remember the Euro was at a all time high this year against the dollar and that went up in smoke in no time. IMO the dollar has peaked and will go down just as fast as it rose in 2009 which will mean a very strong year for gold.
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