<< <i>I remember buying out local candy wholesaler at years end for cost to save them the hassle of shipping back to Topps, and as always each year I would get some sealed cases and then get some opened ones/loose boxes, this I believe is maybe why there are so many opened cases also as 1 person said already over time the (glued down) lids pop up on older sealed cases, I don't remember the exact year sometime in the 1990's that Topps started using Tape to seal their cases. I know just moving an 1980 thur 1989 Topps case can cause the lids to pop open.
as far as quality goes I have seen boxes from the same case, some yield terribly O/C & miscut cards , and other boxes yield nothing but PSA 9 & 10 quality.
personally, I think you might see a small downturn on the 75 mini's , that will correct itself a year or two down the road. I also believe those buying the 75 unopened will have strong hands and not weak minds and will not dump them into the market thus stopping any collapse of the market. JMHO
I love all the doom and gloomers , the sky is falling (because usually some good deals to be had) , all collectible markets have rises and falls and to the true collectors this does not effect them to much, but to the speculators and the dealers it means alot more.
On a plus side there is money to made in a up market and money to made in a down market. Everyone have a nice day!!!!! >>
If the "doom and gloomers" unload their '75 Topps Minis from the perception that there could be many high graded cards yielded from these cases, and that occurs, then that would turn out to be the right move. If as I suspect, that these lots will yield basically PSA 7 type cards, then the "doom and gloomers" who went and unloaded their cards at below market value, would turn out to be wrong.
So basically my premise based on the facts presented, is that it would be smart to buy '75 Topps Minis graded PSA 9 and 10, if finding some good bargains out there. And I'm not saying not to buy these unopened packs when they are brought on to the market by someone like BBCE, but just not to go "crazy" paying too much money for it, and don't overpay believing that you'll strike it rich with nothing but PSA 9's and 10's because it's very likely, in my opinion, there won't be any.
<< <i>How much do you guys think these cases will go for? Will 4 sharp razors be going after them? >>
First off, they aren't selling them as individual cases. There will be lots with several cases in each lot. It would still guess that they would go for $25K or more per case times however many cases are in each lot. I think the sealed case lots will fetch a much higher premium though.
I don't know if 4SC will go after them, but my guess would be that they don't because for one reason or another they seem to have had a difficult time unloading their Mini inventory over the last several months.
I just checked the baseball card exchange website, and he no longer has his 1975 mini wax case listed for sale. Maybe that confirms that BBCE was reaching out to Conlon when he needed boxes or cases. With Conlon gone, and the cases going to REA for auction, I guess BBCE had to pull the listing.
It could also explain why some of Conlon's cases were not sealed.
Only time and the REA auction will tell what the per-case price will break down to, but cases were not moving at $25K-- this is because savvy collectors of this set know the potential for O/C cards, and for $25K you'd like better odds than the minis tend to give you.
Thus I doubt the multi-sealed case lots will fetch an avg of $25K per case. At a $15K per case avg though, I for one would try to have some fun.
* Edit: I doubt 4SR will step up on these lots; they had their fun for a short window and the jig has been up for a hot minute now. I'd be shocked if they or anyone else will lay out $125K for a 5-case lot. The lot would have to yield PSA 9s and 10s of the rarest commons, and several PSA 10s of major stars, to come remotely close to breaking even. Factor in that as this "luckiest lot ever" yields quality cards, the few big buyers of high-grade minis will see pops rising and expect to pay less-- this makes for a real catch-22, and therefore a risky investment at 125K (or 25K per case avg). Sure, one could break and submit over time, but then you are looking to recoup or profit on a 125K outlay over, what, a year plus? It is for this reason I can see lovers of this set (who care less about investment purposes) going for the lots more than professional speculators. Just my .02 but I know the market for this set quite well. There are much more certain buys to make as a card, art, car, or anything-collector for $125K. I just don't see how 5 cases of O/C prone minis can make that back.
As someone above said (which I can confirm having spoken to REA), it is how the estate wants it to be handled. To each his own. In April we'll see how the chips fall.
Steve: Why not do it all at once? Sometimes it works out -- and at least it is straight-forward and full disclosure. That's how it was down with five Ty Cobb advertising back T-206 cards a few years ago [don't want to hijack this thread as to whether or not it is a T-206 card...]
Other cards that have been filtered into the market -- many just treat them with suspicion, especially when it's not clear just how many there are and may be. This is exactly what happened with the Toleteros Joshua Gibson card. One was released -- to all kind of pre-war HOF rookie card collector hoopla, until another one [graded higher] showed up in the next auction. And, before you know it, over 2-3 years, over half a dozen of them circulated into the market...
I am actively buying MIKE SCHMIDT gem mint baseball cards. Also looking for any 19th century cabinets of Philadephia Nationals. Please PM with additional details.
Marc ,the Gibson situation was a little different in that it was an unknown card to begin with, IMO and it is only my opinion cases of Topps cards could be dispersed so the market remains stable. Nothing underhanded about it.
I guess to answer your question I'd like to maximize my profit on something that was held back almost 35 years.
As noted in yesterday’s blog, I was intrigued when I learned that Robert Edward Auctions would have to figure out a way to auction 26 unopened cases of 1975 Topps Minis next spring, this one of the highlighted segments of the Charlie Conlon Collection.
Conlon died this past summer, and Rob Lifson of REA was contacted by the family to handle the liquidation of Conlon’s collection. Having such a startling amount of one item – even one as highly coveted as unopened cases of the second-best set of the decade of the 1970s (pure opinion, obviously; 1972 is just way too cool) – poses unique challenges for an auctioneer.
“There’s no perfect way to do it,” Lifson said in a phone interview on Monday. “I think they will do well,” he added, though he conceded that conventional wisdom suggests the sheer volume could work to suppress prices, at least in theory.
But the sale is hardly theoretical. “Uncertainty (about quantity) can be a drag on the marketplace,” he continued. “In the past, nobody knew how many cases he had. There were people who thought he had hundreds of cases, and now it’s a known, finite amount.”
And Conlon probably did have hundreds of cases at one time, Lifson noted, adding that there are other elements at work that could push bidding upward. “We will likely never again see 26 cases of an important vintage issue available at one time like this again. People will look at it as a unique opportunity. This is the time to buy them.”
The plan, tentative though it may be, is to sell the 12 sealed cases in three lots: six cases, five cases and one single case. The other 14 cases where the case seal has been broken, will be sold in seven lots of two cases each.
Lifson said they didn't really think that breaking up a case to offer individual boxes was the thing to do. "We thought we should keep the cases intact, because that's the way he kept them; these are probably the only surviving cases out there, and there are individual boxes around already in collectors' hands (that all probably came from Charlie anyway). We think that dealers or collector/investors will probably break up some of the cases, and they will really be the buyers of these cases due to the quantity, so we also did not want to undermine their interest, which we think will be great."
And while Lifson was talking to me, he was looking at a PSA 10 specimen of George Brett’s 1975 Topps Mini card. It’s hardly a surprise that Conlon would have been able to winnow through so many cases and come away with such a stunner.
And just for good measure, Conlon also had 21/2 cases of Topps Minis Cellos, which will be sold as a single lot in the same auction.
Now that we’ve discussed what will be offered .... and how it will likely be offered ... it’s only a short additional step to tell you who should be doing the bidding. That kind of all-encompassing hobby assistance can only be found at this location, meaning I’ll be offering those hints on the morrow.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Let's say that you bought a case for $25,000. That's 5,760 cards. Probably one card in each pack is either ruined by wax (on back) or gum (either side)... so let's say 5,184 cards. I'm gonna be real generous and say 1/3 of those cards are psa 8-quality or better.... that's 1,728. At $5 a card, it would cost $8,640 to get them all graded. Let's imagine that you get two full sets of 660 out of your submission of 1,728 cards and your gpa on those two sets is 8.5 (which is probably on the high side). You would have spent $33,640 to get two mini sets, or $16,820 each.
Comments
<< <i>I remember buying out local candy wholesaler at years end for cost to save them the hassle of shipping back to Topps, and as always each year I would get some sealed cases and then get some opened ones/loose boxes, this I believe is maybe why there are so many opened cases also as 1 person said already over time the (glued down) lids pop up on older sealed cases, I don't remember the exact year sometime in the 1990's that Topps started using Tape to seal their cases. I know just moving an 1980 thur 1989 Topps case can cause the lids to pop open.
as far as quality goes I have seen boxes from the same case, some yield terribly O/C & miscut cards , and other boxes yield nothing but PSA 9 & 10 quality.
personally, I think you might see a small downturn on the 75 mini's , that will correct itself a year or two down the road. I also believe those buying the 75 unopened will have strong hands and not weak minds and will not dump them into the market thus stopping any collapse of the market. JMHO
I love all the doom and gloomers , the sky is falling (because usually some good deals to be had) , all collectible markets have rises and falls and to the true collectors this does not effect them to much, but to the speculators and the dealers it means alot more.
On a plus side there is money to made in a up market and money to made in a down market. Everyone have a nice day!!!!!
If the "doom and gloomers" unload their '75 Topps Minis from the perception that there could be many high graded cards yielded from these cases, and that occurs, then that would turn out to be the right move. If as I suspect, that these lots will yield basically PSA 7 type cards, then the "doom and gloomers" who went and unloaded their cards at below market value, would turn out to be wrong.
So basically my premise based on the facts presented, is that it would be smart to buy '75 Topps Minis graded PSA 9 and 10, if finding some good bargains out there. And I'm not saying not to buy these unopened packs when they are brought on to the market by someone like BBCE, but just not to go "crazy" paying too much money for it, and don't overpay believing that you'll strike it rich with nothing but PSA 9's and 10's because it's very likely, in my opinion, there won't be any.
<< <i>Wonder if Rob Lifson is related to Alex?? >>
Alex's name is spelled "Lifeson".
you've been around the block more than one time.
+1 blunt humor
j
RIP GURU
<< <i>How much do you guys think these cases will go for? Will 4 sharp razors be going after them? >>
First off, they aren't selling them as individual cases. There will be lots with several cases in each lot. It would still guess that they would go for $25K or more per case times however many cases are in each lot. I think the sealed case lots will fetch a much higher premium though.
I don't know if 4SC will go after them, but my guess would be that they don't because for one reason or another they seem to have had a difficult time unloading their Mini inventory over the last several months.
It could also explain why some of Conlon's cases were not sealed.
Only time and the REA auction will tell what the per-case price will break down to, but cases were not moving at $25K-- this is because savvy collectors of this set know the potential for O/C cards, and for $25K you'd like better odds than the minis tend to give you.
Thus I doubt the multi-sealed case lots will fetch an avg of $25K per case. At a $15K per case avg though, I for one would try to have some fun.
* Edit: I doubt 4SR will step up on these lots; they had their fun for a short window and the jig has been up for a hot minute now. I'd be shocked if they or anyone else will lay out $125K for a 5-case lot. The lot would have to yield PSA 9s and 10s of the rarest commons, and several PSA 10s of major stars, to come remotely close to breaking even. Factor in that as this "luckiest lot ever" yields quality cards, the few big buyers of high-grade minis will see pops rising and expect to pay less-- this makes for a real catch-22, and therefore a risky investment at 125K (or 25K per case avg). Sure, one could break and submit over time, but then you are looking to recoup or profit on a 125K outlay over, what, a year plus? It is for this reason I can see lovers of this set (who care less about investment purposes) going for the lots more than professional speculators. Just my .02 but I know the market for this set quite well. There are much more certain buys to make as a card, art, car, or anything-collector for $125K. I just don't see how 5 cases of O/C prone minis can make that back.
Flooding the market only drives the price down for them.
Then again I have no idea how many hands are in the pie and what the situation is.
If it was my cases I'd have dispersed them not all at once that is for sure.
Steve
Other cards that have been filtered into the market -- many just treat them with suspicion, especially when it's not clear just how many there are and may be. This is exactly what happened with the Toleteros Joshua Gibson card. One was released -- to all kind of pre-war HOF rookie card collector hoopla, until another one [graded higher] showed up in the next auction. And, before you know it, over 2-3 years, over half a dozen of them circulated into the market...
cases of Topps cards could be dispersed so the market remains stable. Nothing underhanded about it.
I guess to answer your question I'd like to maximize my profit on something that was held back almost 35 years.
Steve
As noted in yesterday’s blog, I was intrigued when I learned that Robert Edward Auctions would have to figure out a way to auction 26 unopened cases of 1975 Topps Minis next spring, this one of the highlighted segments of the Charlie Conlon Collection.
Conlon died this past summer, and Rob Lifson of REA was contacted by the family to handle the liquidation of Conlon’s collection. Having such a startling amount of one item – even one as highly coveted as unopened cases of the second-best set of the decade of the 1970s (pure opinion, obviously; 1972 is just way too cool) – poses unique challenges for an auctioneer.
“There’s no perfect way to do it,” Lifson said in a phone interview on Monday. “I think they will do well,” he added, though he conceded that conventional wisdom suggests the sheer volume could work to suppress prices, at least in theory.
But the sale is hardly theoretical. “Uncertainty (about quantity) can be a drag on the marketplace,” he continued. “In the past, nobody knew how many cases he had. There were people who thought he had hundreds of cases, and now it’s a known, finite amount.”
And Conlon probably did have hundreds of cases at one time, Lifson noted, adding that there are other elements at work that could push bidding upward. “We will likely never again see 26 cases of an important vintage issue available at one time like this again. People will look at it as a unique opportunity. This is the time to buy them.”
The plan, tentative though it may be, is to sell the 12 sealed cases in three lots: six cases, five cases and one single case. The other 14 cases where the case seal has been broken, will be sold in seven lots of two cases each.
Lifson said they didn't really think that breaking up a case to offer individual boxes was the thing to do. "We thought we should keep the cases intact, because that's the way he kept them; these are probably the only surviving cases out there, and there are individual boxes around already in collectors' hands (that all probably came from Charlie anyway). We think that dealers or collector/investors will probably break up some of the cases, and they will really be the buyers of these cases due to the quantity, so we also did not want to undermine their interest, which we think will be great."
And while Lifson was talking to me, he was looking at a PSA 10 specimen of George Brett’s 1975 Topps Mini card. It’s hardly a surprise that Conlon would have been able to winnow through so many cases and come away with such a stunner.
And just for good measure, Conlon also had 21/2 cases of Topps Minis Cellos, which will be sold as a single lot in the same auction.
Now that we’ve discussed what will be offered .... and how it will likely be offered ... it’s only a short additional step to tell you who should be doing the bidding. That kind of all-encompassing hobby assistance can only be found at this location, meaning I’ll be offering those hints on the morrow.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Is an 8.5 mini set worth nearly $17,000?
Steve