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Serious food for thought for Lincoln Proof collectors
Duane
Posts: 645
Based on the last string discussing the Lincoln Cent Proof Series from 1936-1942, and it's value, I'd like to pase a question for all, and all opinions are valued. We see this same dynamic in the MPL series, so this is not novel ground, but this time, it is not MPLs, but brilliant proofs that are being questioned.
Here is the question. Displayed below is a Tru-view of a 1942 proof 65 brown. It is a PCGS Pop 1-0 coin, as mentioned in the other string.
How would one properly go abaout pricing this coin?
The PCGS populations are as follows:
Brown = 8 total ( the finest is a 65BN, which we see below)
Red-Brown = 243 total
Red= 2,099 total
Cameo = 36 total
Along with populations, the PCGS price guides are as follows (at Proof 65 levels):
65 Brown = No price listed
65 Red-Brown = $120
65 Red = $175
65 Cameo = $1,350
After looking at the populations, the prices, and the coin, what is a logical and fair price for this coin pictured below, with all the facts in front of us?
Do we base price on population? Eye appeal? Plastic? What?
Here is the question. Displayed below is a Tru-view of a 1942 proof 65 brown. It is a PCGS Pop 1-0 coin, as mentioned in the other string.
How would one properly go abaout pricing this coin?
The PCGS populations are as follows:
Brown = 8 total ( the finest is a 65BN, which we see below)
Red-Brown = 243 total
Red= 2,099 total
Cameo = 36 total
Along with populations, the PCGS price guides are as follows (at Proof 65 levels):
65 Brown = No price listed
65 Red-Brown = $120
65 Red = $175
65 Cameo = $1,350
After looking at the populations, the prices, and the coin, what is a logical and fair price for this coin pictured below, with all the facts in front of us?
Do we base price on population? Eye appeal? Plastic? What?
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Comments
WS
Edited to say: I have seen that coin in hand. It's AMAZING!!!
Empty Nest Collection
Matt’s Mattes
I've seen some dealers get cameo prices for very well-toned specimens of the same year. I'm just wondering if there is any way to objectively quantify a coin based on eye appeal and rarity. Do any theories exist, even? Or is it all just good guess work and salesmanship? I once paid $750 for a beautiful 1954 RB proof Lincoln. The dealer told me that the price was justified because the reds and cameos brought that money. Sounded logical enough. What ever we call the coin, in terms of a color designation, it still comes down to eye appeal and rarity.
This coin is beautiful, and (as far as I know) unique. Why should it not fetch $1,350, like a cameo. Is one prettier then the other? We know that this one is numerically harder to find. How to quantify a coin like this?
With the Eliasberg 1912 MPL, we set the price a $22,500. That's what I would pay. Matt Chapman as well. But the book says something like $8,500 for that year and grade. I know that another 1912 of the same grade recently went for the same price. The value of those coins, just like this one, I suspect, is outside of any book.
I wish there was a formula!
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I wish there was a formula! >>
There is no formula. It's just how bad someone wants it and how much they are willing to pay. Just like the VDB. Two years the book on 65RBs were $15k. Now you can't touch one for under $50k. There are 24 65RBs. With only 2 65BNs, should these be worth more since they are rarer? I'm just playing the devil's advocate, since I don't have any plans for either. This is just a question.
- Bob -
"Central Valley" Roosevelts
MPL's - Lincolns of Color
On your question - if the eye appeal was there for the browns, and they have better eye appeal and lower pops then the RBs or even RDs.....then yes, the BNs should fetch money, IMHO.
Think about the 1909 plain. In 1909, everyone saved a 1909 'penny' as a sounvenier. So today, we see a ton of 'red' 1909s. In fact, if we look at the population report for PR65 1909s, the pops are:
54 with 46 better for reds; and
9 with 2 better for browns.
The price of a 1909 PR65RD is $3,250; [100 available at PR65 or better]
The price of a 1909 PR65BN is $1,150; [11 available at PR65 or better]
Now, what if the 1909 PR65BROWN looked like this one below.....great eye appeal, and 10x more rare then a red....
So knowing all that, is that coin below worth more then a red? If I paid $2,500 for it, did I get a bargain, or ripped off?
The answer, of course, is that it depends on the coin (I think). Not the price guides!! Price guides are great for a lot of things, just like plastic holders are - but not for really getting the correct value of a coin.... Knowledge and comon sense are more valuable then price guides, that's all I'm saying.
- Bob -
"Central Valley" Roosevelts
MPL's - Lincolns of Color
That was a very eloquently stated argument.
Thank you.
Duane
Red is preferred by the majority of collectors. Yes, anyone can collect what they like, and we have more than a few around here who like color on their MPL's, and naturally that would translate into colorful middle and late date coins.
Copper has it's own color - red - and it needs no other color. A Lincoln can always go from red to brown, but never back. I don't think you can compare a true red Lincoln in rarity to a brown one, even though there may be more red ones certified.
You might spend some time studying the Morgan market and the rise and fall (and rise and fall) of Morgans with toning. How are those coins priced?
A brown Lincoln with color is the equivalent of a Morgan turning completely black, and then having some different colors of toning on top of that. Is there a market for black morgans? Yes, but it is a very, very thin market.
Now a red Lincoln with a little color around the edge of the fields ... hmmm .... daddy like!
Daddy-like. That's pretty good : )
Don't get me wrong; I love red coins. And I love colorful coins too. The problem I pointed out with 1909s is that there are a lot of reds, and few browns. My 'BN' is preferable to some of the coins that pass for 'red' but are just doctored garbage. I'm not talking about your high-level stuff. The 1912 year was the complete opposite, for example. Lots of BNs and few RDs. ....Now a sweet high level red MPL dated 1912 would go a long way in turning heads, If I ever saw one.
C'mon Doug - run one '12 photo by the gang to give us all a charge!
Duane
P.S. Just to see what is actually preferred by the majority of collectors - run a survey, We may both be surprised. And you and I both know that coins can go back to red, just like they can be made colorful. Unfortunetely, some people will make coins look as valuble as they can. One thing is for sure - no one would intentionionally make a coin brown. Red-yes; toned-yes; brown-no. So that 1909 BN with a 9-2 pop may by a very original and even rare coin - even the back was red from the album toning. I feel the same way about original red coins. Original is the key. I think we both agree on that. Take care. Duane
38' wild toner
What's the grade and pop? Is it even a certified coin? FYI - I've bought 2 beautiful coins from Rick Tomaska, they were rare and colorful. They cost a lot more then $235, Ted.
You get what you pay for. In fact, the coins I purchased cost 10 and 20 times that amount, in all seriousness.
Check out my comments on "The Blake "Highlights" Collection (i.e. having fun with colorful collecting)" string.
The 36-42 set is sold, Ted. Why the attack?
Duane