Gold As A Value Storehouse: Myth, Truth, or SCAM ?
storm888
Posts: 11,701 ✭✭✭
In early 1980, gold trades over $850, because paper money is "failing."
Gold tanks, trades below $300 and bounces in a higher trading-range for 25+ years.
In early 2008, gold trades over $1,030, because paper-money is "failing."
In September, the worst financial "crisis" in modern history befalls the world.
In September/October, volatility plagues every market and gold trades over $900 and under $800.
Folks who sought a panic-driven "safe haven" got whipsawed, and most were burned badly.
Every huckster and snake-oil peddler on the planet is NOW pumping gold on TV.
@ $800 Gold on today's date:
30 day chg +21.30 +2.74%
1 year chg +41.80 +5.52%
Where is my storehouse of value?
Where is my safe-haven?
Where is my money?
It has been transfered into the accounts of scamsters who have folks convinced
that "there are two markets" for gold; the "fake" paper price, and the "real" price
I am going to charge you.
And, the perma-bulls continue to call the skeptics "sheeple." I know who the real
sheep are, and they sure don't look like bears to me.
Meanwhile, far away in the land of "fake prices," the traders - LONG and SHORT -
who ride the gold pig daily, continue to make HUGE profits.
Moral: Buy-And-Hold is a poverty recipe.
Gold tanks, trades below $300 and bounces in a higher trading-range for 25+ years.
In early 2008, gold trades over $1,030, because paper-money is "failing."
In September, the worst financial "crisis" in modern history befalls the world.
In September/October, volatility plagues every market and gold trades over $900 and under $800.
Folks who sought a panic-driven "safe haven" got whipsawed, and most were burned badly.
Every huckster and snake-oil peddler on the planet is NOW pumping gold on TV.
@ $800 Gold on today's date:
30 day chg +21.30 +2.74%
1 year chg +41.80 +5.52%
Where is my storehouse of value?
Where is my safe-haven?
Where is my money?
It has been transfered into the accounts of scamsters who have folks convinced
that "there are two markets" for gold; the "fake" paper price, and the "real" price
I am going to charge you.
And, the perma-bulls continue to call the skeptics "sheeple." I know who the real
sheep are, and they sure don't look like bears to me.
Meanwhile, far away in the land of "fake prices," the traders - LONG and SHORT -
who ride the gold pig daily, continue to make HUGE profits.
Moral: Buy-And-Hold is a poverty recipe.
Folks Who Bite Get Bitten. Folks Who Don't Bite Get Eaten.
0
Comments
<< <i> Moral: Buy-And-Hold is a poverty recipe. >>
That moral could be applied to everything-- stocks, bonds, dollars, beanie babies... I don't see your point.
<< <i>In early 1980, gold trades over $850, because paper money is "failing."
Gold tanks, trades below $300 and bounces in a higher trading-range for 25+ years.
In early 2008, gold trades over $1,030, because paper-money is "failing."
In September, the worst financial "crisis" in modern history befalls the world.
In September/October, volatility plagues every market and gold trades over $900 and under $800.
Folks who sought a panic-driven "safe haven" got whipsawed, and most were burned badly.
Every huckster and snake-oil peddler on the planet is NOW pumping gold on TV.
@ $800 Gold on today's date:
30 day chg +21.30 +2.74%
1 year chg +41.80 +5.52%
Where is my storehouse of value?
Where is my safe-haven?
Where is my money?
It has been transfered into the accounts of scamsters who have folks convinced
that "there are two markets" for gold; the "fake" paper price, and the "real" price
I am going to charge you.
And, the perma-bulls continue to call the skeptics "sheeple." I know who the real
sheep are, and they sure don't look like bears to me.
Meanwhile, far away in the land of "fake prices," the traders - LONG and SHORT -
who ride the gold pig daily, continue to make HUGE profits.
Moral: Buy-And-Hold is a poverty recipe. >>
By YOUR very own numbers, gold is up 5.52%......care to guess what inflation was this past year? Yup, 5.6%. There is your STORE OF WEALTH!
the old saying that an ounce of gold 100 years bought you a suit or a gun. today
it can still do the same thing.
sure the type of suit and gun may vary in quality a bit depending on how high or
low gold is at the moment... but it does purchase items like i list above.
expect it to be an investment? you have to time it.
the only people making sure money on PMs, all the time, is flippers. get your
cut on every sale. sometimes it is a big cut, sometimes normal, sometimes a loss...
but it averages out to a profit in most cases if the flipper has an ounce of common sense
in their dealings.
"In early 1980, gold trades over $850, because paper money is "failing.""
Nope, a one time deal that peak lasted 1 week and was more related to a PM scare than any fundamental reason.
"In early 2008, gold trades over $1,030, because paper-money is "failing.""
Seemed more like a response to a major commodity acquisition phase including all metals like steel, aluminum, copper and the gold and silver and oil was just part of it and oh, don't forget the 100% price increase on cement.
"In September/October, volatility plagues every market and gold trades over $900 and under $800."
Hummmm...an 8% drop is a plague? Seems like it quickly recovered. Actually, it recovered to over $900 just last week.
"Every huckster and snake-oil peddler on the planet is NOW pumping gold on TV."
In addition to traveling buying shows and gold parties being advertised in all the media...why the interest in private gold; yeah, I know they are stealing it but why are they are still going after gold if it's such a money pit.
"Where is my storehouse of value?"
Did you notice everyones fund accounts losing 30% over the last 6 months yet gold is +/- <10%. Seems like that is a pretty stable storehouse especially when you consider that it's sister commodity, oil, has lost half it's value in the same period.
"Where is my money?"
OK, now you're getting somewhere...I'm supposing that you are asking about the social security retirement fund?
""there are two markets" for gold; the "fake" paper price, and the "real" price
I am going to charge you."
Yepper, paper is paper and gold is gold, there is a big difference and people are finally getting to get a look at it. Just wait till they audit some of these funds and they find out that paper is paper and gold is gold and they are not the same and someone is going to settle the claims out of court so no one gets charged with a crime and no one goes to the big house.
"Meanwhile, far away in the land of "fake prices," the traders - LONG and SHORT -
who ride the gold pig daily, continue to make HUGE profits."
Yes, newbies, greedy people, speculators, short paper people, they get hosed from time to time as they should and some speculators and players make the big plays and move the markets and they make a little from time to time but in the end, gold is gold and there is no substitute. Also, most perma bulls bought the stuff at 400-500 over the last few years and are really pissed that they only doubled their money by holding.
Don't taze me bro.!
Gold did its job perfectly in the 1970's by raising alarm bells and making lots of money for those buying and selling it. If you didn't sell in early 1980...oh well, that was their fault. The alarm bells that allow a normal economy to know when thinks are out of whack have all been silenced for years (ie neutered CPI, GDP, unemployment stats, CB gold sales, PPT maneuvering, etc.). These stats might not even alarm in depression or hyperinflation they are so massaged. This current 2001-???? market is barely half way through. Let's not call it a bust until it runs its course. By that same yardstick the 1970's market "failed" miserably in 1974-1976 taking a lot of people out for good. Their loss as gold went up 8X over the next 3 years. The bull bucks just at the right time to toss out all the newbies and weak hands. No one said its easy.
I don't think I'm missing anything on physical gold. If you want to paint the same picture on the paper gold markets, be my guest.
Here's an article arguing that the current environment is inflationary regardless of asset deleveraging (ie not monetary deleveraging). Given any number of deflationary opportunities over the past many decades and every time the FED has inflated. In Sept they just concluded the biggest monetary inflation in the history of the FED. And no doubt more to follow. The banks will eventually spend it.
Inflation or Deflation?
roadrunner
Every huckster and scam artist is pumping stocks and ridiculing gold on TV, and have been for DECADES.
Nobody is buying gold yet. I lived thru the bull market of the late '70's. There were people lined up around the building when we opened the place at 7am. We are nowhere near that busy yet, but probably will be in a year or three.
yeah apples to oranges, maybe but that's where i am.
buy and hold untill the economy swings one way or the other LONG term....and as a hedge (PM)
And you didn't even subtract all those years of inflation.
Who knows, maybe the US stock markets will be like Japan's have been.
Hey, you're not allowed to badmouth stocks around here, buster! Since only good things about stocks are allowed talk about the great track record since 1982....now that's better. And gold's track record since 1980 stinks. Now that's really better if you're a mutual fund holder. Just ignore the last 7 years because 5,000 Nasdaq is right around the corner..........
roadrunner
who ride the gold pig daily, continue to make HUGE profits
Very interesting. Only the traders on both sides of the trade can make money. Nobody is on the other side of those trades? Something doesn't compute.
There is something to be said for buying too soon, whereas there is no remedy for buying too late.
I knew it would happen.
eg:
LONG @ $800
SELL @ $830
SHORT @$830
COVER @ $800
In a volatile market, one can repeat the process several times per session
in a HUGE variety of securities.
In the 1920's you could buy a house for 20 $20 gold pieces... $500. Today, you can still buy a decent house for 20 $20 gold pieces.
Gold will never be worthless like your Enron stock, a CD from a bankrupt bank, or your account balance over $100k/$250k at a bank that fails.
<< <i>One more example.
In the 1920's you could buy a house for 20 $20 gold pieces... $500. Today, you can still buy a decent house for 20 $20 gold pieces.
Gold will never be worthless like your Enron stock, a CD from a bankrupt bank, or your account balance over $100k/$250k at a bank that fails. >>
i am not sure what kind of house you could buy for 20000 dollars.
houses have changed a lot since we have had wooden homes with
a couple fire places... no insulation, no electricity, indoor plumbing if
you were lucky, etc...
apples to oranges.. but i did understand your point.
<< <i>
<< <i>One more example.
In the 1920's you could buy a house for 20 $20 gold pieces... $500. Today, you can still buy a decent house for 20 $20 gold pieces.
Gold will never be worthless like your Enron stock, a CD from a bankrupt bank, or your account balance over $100k/$250k at a bank that fails. >>
i am not sure what kind of house you could buy for 20000 dollars.
houses have changed a lot since we have had wooden homes with
a couple fire places... no insulation, no electricity, indoor plumbing if
you were lucky, etc...
apples to oranges.. but i did understand your point. >>
It's not the wooden shack that's worth $$, it's the soil the shack that it is sitting under. A shack can be replaced but not the dirt, ie land.
My point is that, "for every scalper, there is a scalpee".
In a volatile market, one can repeat the process several times per session in a HUGE variety of securities.
Yes, isn't life grand? With Paulson et al in charge, why would ANYONE think that the game isn't rigged?
You can buy into a conservative and perfectly allocated portfolio your whole life and have it trashed in a weekend by the Treasury Dept.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
I knew it would happen.
Camelot
They are Beautiful to look upon though.
My point is that, "for every scalper, there is a scalpee".
In a volatile market, one can repeat the process several times per session in a HUGE variety of securities.
Yes, isn't life grand? With Paulson et al in charge, why would ANYONE think that the game isn't rigged?
It's a shame that over the past 10-15 years this is all that our stock market has become, a rigged trading environment where only those on the inside profit. The populace at large have been the sheep for shearing and they are finally figuring it out after too many years. Buy and hold, "invest" for retirement, you gotta stay in it to win, the turtle wins the race, you have to hang in during the downturns to get those really big upturns, etc. are all the slogans used to keep share holders in the nets. The 401k rules were written to ensure those nets remain full. Rather than a means to grow an economy/nation while increasing the wealth of the majority, it has become "scalper and scalpee" with the very few profiting.
roadrunner
<< <i>Buy and hold, "invest" for retirement, you gotta stay in it to win, the turtle wins the race, you have to hang in during the downturns to get those really big upturns, etc. are all the slogans used to keep share holders in the nets. The 401k rules were written to ensure those nets remain full. Rather than a means to grow an economy/nation while increasing the wealth of the majority, it has become "scalper and scalpee" with the very few profiting. >>
The rules are actually set up so that you can't withdraw your money before age 59 1/2 without incurring a 10% penalty on top of all the other taxes you'll pay.
I've often thought that the stock market was a bunch of baloney. All of this talk of "average" returns of 8 or 10%... how is that realistic in the long run, when the real economy maybe grows 3% a year on average?
If someone sat down and did the research, I would bet the increase in stocks since around 1982 was largely due to the growth of 401(k) plans, introduced right around that time, which resulted in more and more people participating in the stock market who had never owned stocks before. The more new money that was coming in, the higher the prices grew.
If someone sat down and did the research, I would bet the increase in stocks since around 1982 was largely due to the growth of 401(k) plans, introduced right around that time, which resulted in more and more people participating in the stock market who had never owned stocks before. The more new money that was coming in, the higher the prices grew
I would say that a significant percentage of the increase is due to inflationary effects due to the fact that M3 has increased by a factor of 6X since then. That along with all the unseen off-balance sheet increases that exist and the leveraging up of 10-1 to 100-1 by our favorite-son bankers. Mostly smoke and mirrors imo since the early 1990's.
roadrunner
You would be taxed at your marginal rate for all of the funds you withdraw, based upon your earnings for the year, on top of your ordinary income for the year. However, the 10% penalty would apply only to your gains, and not to the principal.
If you lost money in the recent stock market downdraft, you have fewer gains to tax - so you might want to figure out how much of a gain you actually have.
It's also true that you *might* be in a lower tax bracket after you retire. But then, you *might not* be in a lower bracket. It really depends on how *rich* the socialists think you are at that point in history.
And if not the socialists, it might just be that the central bankers who run the government find another way to get at your money without your consent before that time arrives.
But hey, it's always fun to imagine that things will work out on their own.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>In 2000, the NASDAQ went over 5000. 8 1/2 years later, it is 1700. Stock bugs everywhere say invest all your money in stocks while lining their pockets with commissions. Where's the store of value? The NASDAQ is still 66% below its peak 8 1/2 years later? When will it get back to 5000 so it can break even? Maybe 2030 or 2040.
Hey, you're not allowed to badmouth stocks around here, buster! Since only good things about stocks are allowed talk about the great track record since 1982....now that's better. And gold's track record since 1980 stinks. Now that's really better if you're a mutual fund holder. Just ignore the last 7 years because 5,000 Nasdaq is right around the corner..........
roadrunner >>
good call!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Hard to condemn me for getting it wrong when for 3 more years gold (and other commodities for 2+ years) were still the play. Gold recovered to $1,000 in 4 months following the 2008 low. 47% in 4 months is not bad.
I also recall Cohodk stating last year that the NAZ has 0 chance of getting to 5,000 before 2016. Good company. I'm still satisfied with the storehouse value of gold from $320 to the current $1200+. The day you need the insurance is not the day you can go out and still buy it on sale. $650 BILL in gold otc derivatives and $200 BILL in silver otc derivatives by July 2008 is why the sharp July-October dip occurred...and why the rebound was just as sharp.
And as Cohodk has often stated, the cure for high prices, is high prices. We're nearly there. And speaking of the NASDAQ at 5,000 in 1999/2000....what % of those companies are still in business today?
The gin I'm going to have finishing up this painting tonight is priced about the same as it was back then though........go figure.
Happy weekend everyone!!
<< <i>Still up what since 08, 50% basically.....my money went longer 7 years ago than it does today at the grocery by a long shot...probably that same 50%.
The gin I'm going to have finishing up this painting tonight is priced about the same as it was back then though........go figure.
Happy weekend everyone!!
Cuz gin is nasty
<< <i>
Cuz gin is nasty
Ha! Been on a gin & tonic Big Bad Voodoo Daddy kick for the past few studio sessions, I don't fight the vibe, ever. The dude abides.
Honestly, my buzz has cost about the same since I can't remember for the past 30 years. That's got socio-econmic meaning I'd think for sure.
If a person buys gold right, it has terrific properties.
It is a hedge against poor economic and political policies
It is highly liquid and compact and always worth something.
Gets you out from under the banking systems thumb.
Generational.
A terrific way to diversify your wealth 10-20%.
On the other hand, if you are already too rich and have a rock solid guarantee of future income that will see you through inflation/deflation and recession/depression and associated turmoil and furthermore don't really care if a stranger or government with possibly nefarious intentions dictates your wealth then by all means just ignore gold and put your trust in that stranger and/or government because they are here to help(themselves).
dollar is currently being affected by German bond downfall. Tuns out the bunds were not the right guess with the introduction of european QE. As the dollar goes, gold goes in the opposite direction.
Profits are no longer a matter of the right long term hold, they are the result of correct short term choices.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>All asset classes are the same, sometimes just at different times. None have mystical abilities. When the hype is stong, your running shoes must be on. >>
Many have the magical power of being up while specific others are down.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
"Real estate" can be down, but THAT house may be up. "Commodities" may be up, but Coffee may be down. "The Stock Market" may be up and this particular stock may be up even more, etc..
The OP had a point then, and still does, the rise and fall of gold and now the protracted consolidation being the case in point
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Truth
That probably annoys some people.