Points-wise, are you better off leaving a hole in your set, or filling a hole with a low-grade coin?

seanq

This question came to mind after I read the thread about Registry set owners about being contacted about coins for their sets. Knowing I had a few tougher Registry varieties on the BST, I thought maybe I could drop a note to set owners who might be interested.

I started in the Washington Quarters complete with varieties category, and what I found was that with the exception of the #1 set, every other set was missing all of the varieties. Most of these sets had the normal coins in MS66 or above quality. Checking the silver Washington set was similar, only about half of the sets in the with varieties category had any varieties at all. However, a few with most coins in the MS66 range had the varieties in Fine to XF, which I's assume is what they could afford.

Which all leads to my question - if you had a registry set with all MS66 quality coins and holes for the tough varieties, would your set rating go up or down if you filled in those blanks with coins in the Good-Fine range? I'm a big fan of completeness first and upgrading second, does the Registry reward that approach or punish it. And finally, am I wasting my time offering my low-grade filler coins to people with those sets?


Sean Reynolds

garsmith

fill the hole and upgrade when able

DIMEMAN

Filling a hole will raise you set grade, but if it is lower than the average of the rest of the set coins it will lower the grade average.

WaterSport

Not sure on the other coin series, and I am not sure if your talking “major variety sets” or “complete variety sets” but I can tell you first hand the Lincoln complete variety sets do favor filling the hole in many situations. Take for instance a 1936 cent in MS 66 Red, you get 5 points. Pick up 1936 Double die in XF, you get 7 points. After a while, a high end set will spend a lot of money just catching up to your low end brown cents. Yes, your grade average will go down, but you are ahead either due to a higher percentage completed and more points over all.

In fact, some other issues are at play here. First, collecting varieties will pretty much rule out a good number of collectors who simply are not interested in varieties. Next, many high end collectors only buy their coins. This is a real problem because variety coins are pretty darn scarce in PCGS plastic. Since PCGS only started grading varieties when they established the sets less than 2 years ago, most folks who are slabbing these coins are doing it for their own sets, thus they are seldom up for sale. Those high end red examples that are just now popping up are carrying big price tags. As you upgrade your VF coin to a XF and sell off the VF, it’s NOT the high end collectors buying them in my case. Many are trying to buy the “best coin possible” and have yet to realize that those coins do not exist yet. In fact, some 13-15 variety cents have yet to be graded in any grade which means no one at this time can even complete a Lincoln Variety set, even with lower graded coins. So yes, in my opinion your wasting your time trying to push a low grade coin on a high end collector, drop down about 20 sets, make the coin affordable and make someone happy.

Boom

Before filling the hole with a low grade piece - just leave it empty!

RBinTex

I think filling in a hole is always positive (and will count as more than an empty slot).

Boom

Obviously lowers the GPA

Steve

I have a lot of admiration for those Lincoln cent collectors who choose to do the Complete Lincoln cent variety collection Set Registry of 463 business strike and proof coins. ANYONE who gets that Set Registry to 100% complete WILL have accomplished something REAL special. I am not a collector of all these varieties, but I sure do realize that finding some of them IN ANY CONDITION is a major project. Seeing Doug and Bob at the top of the list right now shows the passion they have for Lincoln cents. Good luck. Steve

atom48coin

The registry has a neat "what if?" feature. If you go into your set, view it, then you can play with whatever assumptions you want to make and it will let you know how your ranking would change. I've generally filled "holes" with lower quality coins to jump above all the incomplete sets. Since my ego has lessened considerably, along with my wallet, I use the "what if" for dreaming.

LindeDad

I still like the idea of filling the hole with what I can afford as I find them. I have found that most hard to find coins even in the lower grades give me a even or better exchange if I find a upgrade later.
For the guys with the deep pockets then waiting for the right coin might be a better option. But my sets don't end up at the top of the list vary often so I will take what I can get.

tradedollarnut

Registry pointswise, filling the hole is ALWAYS better.

seanq

Great answers and insights, guys, thank you. BTW, I never did contact any set holders about my coins, though I suppose I still may.


Sean Reynolds

ajia

I would also sugest that if is a coin that you know you will later upgrade, wait.
If it is a coin that you can only afford in a lower grade, then buy & fill the hole, it will raise your Set Rating while lowering the Weighted GPA.

As I understand it, the Set Rating is Weighted GPA X Complete (which is raised).

PS_ This is the classic, "Do as I say, NOT as I do"!

tradedollarnut

I would also sugest that if is a coin that you know you will later upgrade, wait.

This can be bad advice - if the coin is really scarce and/or the market is rising.

Fairlaneman

<< <i>I would also sugest that if is a coin that you know you will later upgrade, wait.

This can be bad advice - if the coin is really scarce and/or the market is rising. >>



For "Widget" collectors its very sound advice. They come around all of the time. Of course dealers will not like you because they will get one shot at you and only one shot.

Ken

ajia

This can be bad advice - if the coin is really scarce and/or the market is rising.

Why?
If the market is rising, anytime you upgrade you'll be paying more for the upgrade than you can sell the coin being upgraded.
Please provide a scenario where it makes sense to buy a coin, then upgrade it later on.

i suppose you could buy a coin, upgrade on an up-swing whule holding on to the upgraded coin, then sell the upgraded coin later on at the same price (or higher) than the upgrade coin. I was thinking more in the lines of selling the upgraded coin right after it was upgraded,
You also taking a chance, what happen if the market takes a dive soon after you upgrade?

Anyway, fill the hole.

tradedollarnut

Two scenarios that I mentioned:

1) the coin is truly scarce. I have heard numerous times a collector lament that he shoulda bought a certain coin that he passed on because he thought he'd find a better one ... and then never did. I also have had the experience THREE TIMES where the ONLY WAY that I was able to acquire a coin I wanted is because I had one of lesser grade to trade in to the owner. Sometimes, you just gotta take what's available now.

2) the market is rising. I have heard numerous times a collector lament that the market had risen so fast on a coin that he could no longer afford to buy it. Money in the bank waiting for just the right coin to come along earning just 2-3% is losing value compared to coins that can be rising as much as 15-25% a year. If you've bought a desirable trade in, it should be rising much faster than the money you're earning in the bank, reducing the difference between your available cash and the price of the coin you wanted to buy.

ajia

TDN, we obviously play in different leagues.
And I absolutely see your point.

My point is that buying a $50 coin to fill a hole that you know you'll fill with a $100 coin in the not too distant future might keep you stuck with a $50 coin, or selling it off for a loss.
Even if the market goes up, the 'profit' you make selling the upgraded coin would be erased by the increase of the upgrade coin you buy, there are just alot of common coins out there.

If you're not sure if you'll run across, or have the funds to purchase that 'ideal' coin, then I would buy the lower grade 'hole filler'.

tradedollarnut

I definitely agree with you that in many cases one should just wait.

LindeDad

I think Sean was talking about the Varities, and Key & Semi Keys. These get when you can they just seen to keep going up in all the series. More collectors than coins in many cases. I for one see very little down side to them as a collector.