Nice to get the first one under your belt
stevek
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A very nice win today for the Phils.
WinPitcher would know this better than me...but the odds of a team winning a 5 game series after winning the first game, have to be very good.
Still 2 to go so I'm not counting any chickens yet.
WinPitcher would know this better than me...but the odds of a team winning a 5 game series after winning the first game, have to be very good.
Still 2 to go so I'm not counting any chickens yet.
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Comments
JS
<< <i>Cole came in and domintated a la Steve Carlton. Utley looked like Mike Schmidt and Lidge like Mitch Williams...all is good!
JS >>
I hate to say it about the Mitch Williams analogy but Lidge has been somewhat shaky in his last two outings. But he's what helped get us here so I can't complain too much about him.
Especially if Sabathia goes 2 games.
But I like their chances (Phillies)
Steve
It really doesn't matter though because when they advance, they will go down to the Cubs in 5
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Will they be blaming it on bartman again this year?
JS
So it appears that the Phillies are in good shape in that regard.
It sounds like 88% of the time the winner of game 1 wins the series.
I think the Yankees lost 2 series after winning the first game.
I have no idea who the other 2 (if they were 2) are.
Steve
<< <i>Steve it was mentioned during the Dodger / Cub game that the winner of game one went on and won the LDS 24 out of 28 series.
So it appears that the Phillies are in good shape in that regard.
It sounds like 88% of the time the winner of game 1 wins the series.
I think the Yankees lost 2 series after winning the first game.
I have no idea who the other 2 (if they were 2) are.
Steve >>
Wow - I would have never guessed it was THAT high.
Cubs' hole is bigger than it looks
by Dayn Perry
Dayn Perry is a frequent contributor to FOXSports.com and author of the blog Spolitical, which explores the relationship between sports and politics. He's presently at work on his second book, a biography of Reggie Jackson.
It's a running tabulation of how long it's been since the Chicago Cubs enjoyed baseball supremacy. The "00" is for the division title, which they won last year. The "62" is for the pennant, which they last won in 1945, and the "99" is for the World Series, which they last won in 1908 — 99 years ago.
So will the caretaker of that brownstone soon attend to the grim business of changing the last number to "100?" That was the palpable fear among the Wrigley Field throngs after the loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLDS. Then again, the pessimism is never hard to come by at the corner of Clark and Addison. And it's hard not to blame them ...
If you'd been told that Cubs starter Ryan Dempster would walk seven through 4.2 innings and throw just 57 strikes in 109 pitches, then you'd probably be surprised that he gave up "merely" four runs.
As well, Manny Ramirez three times faced Dempster, who had no command all night, with men on and failed to drive in any runs (of course, he made up for it in the seventh with his record 25th postseason home run). That's not what you'd expect. Oh, and the two-run shot that Mark DeRosa tallied in the second? That was the first time all season and just the third time in his entire 12-year career that Derek Lowe gave up an opposite-field home run to a right-handed batter.
All that and the Cubs still got trampled, 7-2.
To be sure, it's far from over, but the Cubs have put themselves in an unenviable position. Since the Division Series was instituted, there have been 52 such best-of-five affairs, and teams that take the opening contest have won 35 of those 52 series. In other words, the team that wins Game 1 of the Division Series goes on to win the entire series more than two-thirds of the time. So in that regard, the Cubs are working against history. They're also working against an opponent that's much improved.
First and foremost, the Dodgers have been a different team since the arrival of Manny Ramirez. Since they acquired Ramirez at the non-waiver trade deadline, the Dodgers rank a respectable fifth in the 16-team NL in runs scored. Prior to nabbing Ramirez, they ranked just 13th in that same category. As well, Andre Ethier has taken off in the second half, and Rafael Furcal, an MVP candidate at the time of his injury, is back. So is closer Takashi Saito, and manager Joe Torre has wisely defrocked Jeff Kent as the starting second baseman.
And that's to say nothing of the addition-by-subtraction injury to Andruw Jones. Simply put, the Dodgers, as presently constituted, are better than their record would lead you to believe.
Here's something else for the Cubs to worry about: the pitching matchups the rest of the way. Chad Billingsley (3.14 ERA, 201 strikeouts) will go on Thursday in Game 2, and he presents some problems for Chicago — he's got a career ERA of 3.12 on the road and a career ERA of 3.60 against the Cubs. In Game 3, it'll be Hiroki Kuroda (3.73 ERA), who in two starts against the Cubs this season allowed one earned run in 15.1 innings of work.
More generally, though, Billingsley and Kuroda are both the kind of pitchers who give the Cubs fits: right-handers who throw hard. This season, the Chicago offense has an OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) of .807 against left-handers and .793 against right-handers.
Unless Joe Torre opts to give Clayton Kershaw the start in a possible Game 4, the Cubs won't oppose a left-hander in this series. Also, the Cubs' OPS against "finesse" pitchers this season is .819, but against power pitchers — a category that includes Billingsley, with his 93-mph fastball, and Kuroda, with his 93-mph splitter — that figure drops to .727. Again, right-handers who throw hard — not what the Cubs want to be facing.
And don't forget that Torre, in that possible Game 4 at Dodger Stadium, has the option of starting Lowe on short rest. (On Wednesday night, Lowe somewhat cryptically said that the decision had already been made.) Lowe hasn't fared particularly well on three days rest in the past. But keep in mind that he's got a 2.30 ERA at home this season, and he's of course right-handed.
All those right-handers mean Cubs manager Lou Piniella may be disinclined to sit the struggling Kosuke Fuhudome. Fuhudome, who hasn't hit a lick since June, needs to sit, but the Cubs lineup is so heavily right-handed that Piniella may deny the obvious.
"We need to swing the bats," Piniella lamented in the press room afterward, but it's not that simple. The Cubs dropped one at home, their ace was awful, the underbelly of the bullpen predictably struggled, and the pitching matchups the rest of the way favor Los Angeles (that's especially the case given Carlos Zambrano's recent struggles and Rich Harden's inability to pitch deep into games).
So while it's not yet time to change that sign to "100," it soon will be unless the Cubs reverse course.
<< <i>
<< <i>Steve it was mentioned during the Dodger / Cub game that the winner of game one went on and won the LDS 24 out of 28 series.
So it appears that the Phillies are in good shape in that regard.
It sounds like 88% of the time the winner of game 1 wins the series.
I think the Yankees lost 2 series after winning the first game.
I have no idea who the other 2 (if they were 2) are.
Steve >>
Wow - I would have never guessed it was THAT high. >>
i guess those figures were probably for the National League.
The LDS began in 1995? If so, that would be 13 years or 26 series,
Adding 1981 when they also had a LDS makes the total 28 such series to date.
Steve
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<< <i>No they were for both leagues Steve. They said since 1995 24 of 28 LDS Series were won by the team that won game 1.
The LDS began in 1995? If so, that would be 13 years or 26 series,
Adding 1981 when they also had a LDS makes the total 28 such series to date.
Steve >>
Oh you're right Steve - Thanks!