Curious about the amount of old gold that survived 1933

BBN

Anyone ever hear a ballpark figure of what survived the recall and meltdown? Let's take for example, 1924 or 1928 Saints. Did the majority of gold coins like these generic dates meet their maker?

secondrepublic

I think the amount that survived could only be a small fraction of the many millions that were minted of these generic dates. These coins are quite plentiful on the collectors market, but really how many people actually buy and own these things. Not that many. My guess is that for the "common" pre-33 gold coins a few percent have survived... but even if it's only 5% or 10%, that's still a pretty large number of pieces of each date/type relative to the size of the collector base.

I would be curious to see if anyone ever researched how many gold coins were turned in after Roosevelt issued the gold confiscation order... that might give an indication of how many survived.

Overdate

I understand that a bunch of U.S. gold coins wound up in Europe during the 1930s.

ttown

Actually many were sent to Europe after WWII to help rebuild.

PerryHall

<< <i>Actually many were sent to Europe after WWII to help rebuild. >>



Are you thinking about silver dollars? Do you have any documentation? My understanding is that FDR melted every US gold coin that he could get his hands on.

roadrunner

I don't know about FDR decreeing melting all the US gold coins. But certainly the majority of the now rarer $20 Saint mint market pieces in the the 1920's and 30's had to be melted since millions were minted and only thousands survive today. The banks used the $20's for interbank payments and these essentially did not circulate. Whatever survives today is was what sent overseas following FDR's gold ban in 1933-34. I'm sure authors like QDB and others have written books on where the gold went following 1933.

If not for the gold ban one could have expected to see as high as a 90-99% survival rate on these coins. Considering that original bags of these $20's are still out there it's hard to guess what % of the orig mintages survive. But I'll take a swag:

Original mintages of all but the rarest dates is approx 40 MILLION total.

The 1924-P mintage was about 4.3 MILL. The number of those graded today is approx 1 MILL. Right there is a 25% survival rate assuming no regrades. And that is the most populous date in the 1920's. But there are many out there unslabbed in collector's hands as well as many still overseas. It would seem reasonable that 2-10 MILL of all $20 Saints survive today (5-25% survival rate). 4 MILLION seems like a fair, middle of the road estimate (10%).

The 1928 Saint had an 8.8 MILL. minted and apparently 8X more of these vs the 1924 hit the melting pots since less than 100K have been graded.

roadrunner

RWB

At the beginning of march 1933 there was an estimated $571 million in gold coin in circulation. During 1933-34 approximately $292 million was returned to the Treasury, mostly from national banks. From 1934 to 1960 the remaining gold coin actually collected from individuals and banks was small, approximately $12 million. The Treasury Department eventually wrote off $279 million in gold as being lost, in numismatic collections or exported without record prior to April 1933.

Also, from October 1931 through the first week of February 1932, when large US banks unilaterally refused to honor speculative exports of gold, foreign speculators sent US coin gold to France, Switzerland, Belgium and other countries. This amounted to an estimated $37 million.

Although repatriation of gold from Europe is often mentioned by numismatic dealers, I suspect the quantity was much less than the gold that collectors and others simply didn’t bother to turn in. At present, I’d guess around $200 million in US coin gold, mostly in double eagles, is floating about.

As for specific dates/mints, no one knows. One can only guess based on public sales and assorted anecdotes.

roadrunner

RWB, do you mean 200 MILL ounces in gold coin or a current gold melt value of $200 MILL? $200 MILL in melt value, assuming a round figure of $1,000/oz would imply 200,000 oz in gold coins left.

That figure is easily eclipsed by just the $20 Saints that have been slabbed - approx 1 MILLION of them. And that assumes all of them are only worth melt value.

roadrunner

RWB

$200 million in face value of gold coin at $20.67/oz. All of the amounts I mentioned are on this basis - not the $35 after the Act of 1934 or anything later.

roadrunner

OK, that works out to be about 10 MILL ounces of gold. A reasonable number imo.

rodarunner

RWB

The total of all U.S. gold produced from 1795 through 1933 was calculated at $4,526,218,477.50, with the total exported as $3,620,974,782, leaving $905,243,695.50 which actually entered domestic circulation. As you can see from the posts, above, about 60% was supposed to really be circulating and nearly half of that had to be written off as “unlocated.”

Gold coins were a primary source of metal for jewelers and small businesses, so it is normal for a large percentage of it to simply have vanished as “coins.”

BBN

Good stuff folks. Thanks!!! I've been reading "Illegal Tender" and it looks like most recalled gold was melted into bars and stored away by our govt. Is it possible that our govt has used alot of these old melted coins to make the new AGEs?

SaorAlba

With all the above, the point is being missed that several of the contemporary tycoons of that era, the Vanderbilts, Rockefellers etc. had significant holdings in gold coin that they started banking over in Europe beginning in the mid 1920's - they saw it coming. So in essence quite a bit of gold started leaving the country earlier, accounting for the large numbers of 1924 and 1928 coins that are extent to this day. Also European central banks started pulling gold out of banks beginning during that time and stashing it in Swiss bank accounts etc. It is still possible given the right connections and circumstances to find USA gold coins in Europe that have been stashed there since the 1920's and 1930's. Several years ago I bought 10 Liberties from Heritage that they had scarfed up in Europe a couple of months before. They sold them at something like 2% over melt, they were coins that were cleaned, dinged etc. or otherwise would body bag in a TPG, so they are essentially bullion. They were a pretty good investment, I bought them almost three years ago for $493.50 each.

RWB

Most exported gold coin was melted and either recoined into local currency or refined and cast into standard fine bars. South American banks dealt in smaller quantities of US coin gold than European ones, and were less likely to go to the expense of melting it. European merchants and citizens tended to hoard gold coin because of their experiences with repudiation of currencies. Gold coins ended up in Swiss banks through their neutrality and actions as a neutral broker – basically, they received payments and held the coin against credit notes.

Few are aware that following WW-I the US was the only large country still on a fully convertible gold standard. The international gold standard effectively died in August 1914. Therefore, any European wishing to but aside gold in small amounts, had to buy US coins or British sovereigns sitting in US banks and the Federal Reserve.

Contrary to some statements others have made or implied, the wealthy were not unusually large holders of gold coins or bars, except for business. (JP Morgan was an exception – but he also favored the Roosevelt administration’s resetting of the metal’s value and of taking the US off the international gold standard.) Gold paid no interest and brought no profit – the exchange of gold (or credits) for commodities and securities generated profits.

Everything extant of US gold coinage is included in the estimates noted in prior postings.

[Edited to add the last sentence for clarity.]

Nysoto

RWB, what is the source for the figure on the amount of gold exported, and how was it calculated? Was the amount held by US banks to back deposits only $292M, or less? Thank you.

edit - Of the $4.5 Billion is US gold minted from 1795-1933, how much was attributed to the 1849 and 1897 Cal and Alaskan gold rushes?
Thanks.

RWB

...what is the source for the figure on the amount of gold exported, and how was it calculated?

The first value is from a study by Tim Green for the World Gold Council who examined US Mint reports and Treasury import/export reports. Keep in mind that US domestic gold coin was in constant churn: the Mint recoined everything that was damaged or worn, but did not deduct the melted pieces from prior years totals. This is a major reason why well-circulated gold coin is unusual.

I think “calculated” is too not quite the right word – it implies an accuracy that does not exist and is, as a practical matter, impossible to attain. What the mint did over the decades was to make the estimates add up to the total… no one really knows how much gold came out of US mines.

The $571 million is gold coin and does not include a similar quantity of gold certificates. Banks did not have to physically own gold - only the treasury did as legal requirement for paper currency. This was one of the problems in March 1933 in that the Feds were very close to being in default of the gold backing for paper currency because of the speculative outflow of gold.

The manuscript I am working on will have all the detailed references, etc.

secondrepublic

<< <i> $200 million in face value of gold coin at $20.67/oz. All of the amounts I mentioned are on this basis - not the $35 after the Act of 1934 or anything later.

OK, that works out to be about 10 MILL ounces of gold. A reasonable number imo. >>



It's funny, as coin collectors we tend to think in terms of rare dates versus generics... but the reality is, even if every one of these coins were in the US, that works out to less than 1 ounce of pre-33 gold for every 30 Americans. If more Americans wanted to trade their paper for old gold, you could very quickly see the price curve take on a parabolic shape.

roadrunner

If you assume 150,000 tonnes of gold is the correct amount ever mined throughout history, and all of it still exists above ground, then that's only several TRILLION dollars in value.... or similar to what trades daily in currency on the Forex.

roadrunner