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The top ten MPL PCGS certified condition rarities

The top ten MPL condition rarities...I little surprising on some years. Opposite in many ways when we compare the numbers to to associated book values.

1) 1909VDB brown (8 certified);
2) 1916 Red (20 certified);
3) 1909VDB Red (30 certified);
4) 1916 brown (32 certified);
5) 1909 brown (35 certified);
6) 1915 Red (44 certified);
7) 1914 brown (47 certified);
8) 1912 Red (52 certified);
9) 1911 Red (60 certified);
10) 1909VDB Red-brown (61 certified).

In the last position in a series comprising 27 members (exluding a possible 1917), was....

27) 1913 Red Brown (232 certified).

Final count in top 10:

1 RB certified;
4 BN certified;
5 RD certified.

Interesting that the browns and reds were even close to equal, from my perspective.

Some years, I could speculate a reason. for example, in 1909, maybe many people saved the new cent as a token, and that would account for the rare brown numbers.

Many of you may know that David Bowers created a "Universal Rarity Chart", first published in the Numistmatist in 1992. Call me if you want a scanned copy as it is interesting. The basic idea is that a large enough general sample is fixed, and then certain assuptions are made about a coin's rarity, and specifically, how many coins exist in reality today (even though it's just an estimate. Each coin then s, based on it's overall number, given a fixed "Rarity" number (e.g. 'R25') to ascertain its true rarity. The method is not fool proof, but gives a pretty good approximation as to how many coins may really be in existance for a certain number. For matte proof Lincoln, the numbers assigned are based on the the numbers which have been submitted to the grading census of the three main grading services.

When you look at the rarity scale, a "R1" designation corresponds to a 1, or a unique, only know specimen.

Based on the Bower's URC, MPL are found to be quite low, as would be expected, on the numbers predicted to actually exist.

So based on the "Top 10" numbers given above, we can extrapolate. For example, even the most common coin inthe MPL series, the 1913 RB (at 232 known to be certified) equates og the Bower's scale as a "R13", which means that is is prdicted tht between 200-300 are considered to actually exist. For the 1909BN I just bought yestrday (35 certified), the Bower's Chart would give the coin an "R8", and estimate that 25-37 actually exist. If the Chart is actually valid, one can conclude that most all of the 1909BNs have been found and holdered.

Obviously, and anlysis of what is 'rare' and what is not rare is determined by not only the number of coins minted, but the number of coins that survice, as well.

I do beleive that another chart exists that coresponds the Bower's Rarity Chart with a quantification as to what number (i.e. "R8")of the chart constitutes what would be considered either 'rare' 'scarce' 'comon' etc., but I can't seem to find it.

Anyone have that translation chart available? We are all know that MPLs are 'scarce or conditionally rare, but I'd like to objectify it a little more, if I could.

Also, any theories as to why the numbers above are the way they are? Even for any specific year, all theories welcome!

Thanks,

Duane




Comments

  • lasvegasteddylasvegasteddy Posts: 10,408 ✭✭✭
    <<<I do beleive that another chart exists that coresponds the Bower's Rarity Chart with a quantification as to what number (i.e. "R8")of the chart constitutes what would be considered either 'rare' 'scarce' 'comon' etc., but I can't seem to find it.>>>

    The Sheldon Scale

    R‑1 Common

    R‑2 Not So Common

    R‑3 Scarce

    R‑4 Very Scarce (population est. at 76‑200)

    R‑5 Rare (31‑75)

    R‑6 Very Rare (13‑30)

    R‑7 Extremely rare (4‑12)

    R‑8 Unique or Nearly So (1, 2 or 3)



    The Universal Rarity Scale by Q. David Bowers

    URS‑0 None known

    URS‑1 1 known, unique

    URS‑2 2 known

    URS‑3 3 or 4 known

    URS‑4 5 to 8 known

    URS‑5 9 to 16 known

    URS‑6 17 to 32 known

    URS‑7 33 to 64 known

    URS‑8 65 to 125 known

    URS‑9 126 to 250 known

    URS‑10 251 to 500 known

    URS‑11 501 to 1,000 known

    URS‑12 1,001 to 2,000 known

    URS‑13 2,001 to 4,000 known

    URS‑14 4,001 to 8,000 known

    URS‑15 8,001 to 16,000 known

    URS‑16 16,001 to 32,000 known

    URS‑17 32,001 to 65,000 known

    URS‑18 65,001 to 125,000 known

    URS‑19 125,001 to 250,000 known

    URS‑20 250,001 to 500,000 known

    i really suspect red browns and coins in pr64 find pop issues as some red's were issued r/b too easy and 64 is 1 grade away from a majority level of acceptance.upgrade potential stems pretty high in these 2 addresses

    the low brn rate i suspect imho is to that brn's were improperly stored or in exposed conditions.i'd tend to believe most mpl's were a well cared for coin and tucked away as such

    like so many series condition rarity and pop numbers do not add up to logic of value as a standard.many hold condition rarity solely to highest grade in highest preservation level only.

    sadly eye appeal is still in a back shadow in grading

    ngc's "star" is something i hope pcgs addresses as eye appeal should have it's own address...will pcgs incorporate "p.q." or rates of "p.q."...gosh i wish

    so yeah duane...low pop brn's are discarded by most as condition rarity as it's a bottom level of designation...exceptional toners alike are out shadowed by many with less then eye appeal...will this ever be rectified?...probably not..."cac" stickers are only address by pcgs so far...hopefully that does change


    everything in life is but merely on loan to us by our appreciation....lose your appreciation and see


  • You can always turn a red or red brown coin into a red brown &/or brown coin (respectively).

    IMHO, I think that the "condition rarity" of other than RED coins is not very relavant (particularly when only looking at total of each classification and not the highest numerical grade).

    I've urged PCGS to do this before and it would help with the "rigorousness" (and make it much easier than you manually computing the values) of your "sample" if you posted the percentage of supposed number minted that were registered AND the percentage of those in the pop report that were registered.

    But good info nonetheless. Thanks.
  • SteveSteve Posts: 3,313 ✭✭✭
    Interesting study Bob, BUT remember that PCGS definition of RED is 95% RED and PCGS definition of BROWN is 5% RED so that about 90% of all slabbed coins SHOULD BE Red/Brown by definition.
    Steveimage
  • Ted- Thanks for the scale. Maybe it is the "Sheldon scale we are looking for? I am writing an article about this concept, so collector input is important, as we know that perceptions (regardless whose they are) dictate reality. So my answer is the same. Yes, the correction is being made (as witnessed by a recent sale of a high-end MPL brown coin for $17,500 - see Brian Wagner's website). Clearly, buyers are smart and informed, and understand that populations are small, and irrespective of color, small populations usually equate to higher costs, if the product is in demand. So I think that the the market is correcting itself.

    Tex- Thanks for the opinion - I'm not sure I agree: "You can always turn a red or red brown coin into a red brown &/or brown coin (respectively)." My first response to that is that any color can be manipulated (even red - a RB coin can be dipped in a solution and made to be red, I am told (that's why we rely on the grading services to stop frauds like that). So the colors may be in fact be relevant. Aside from that, logically, and considering the financial numbers below, why would anyone want to change a red coin into a brown coin? It makes no economic sense.

    So I suppose we can look at the numbers of the "Top 10" MPL conditonal rarities in a couple of differant ways:
    A) Assummed rarity (compared to other MPLs or compared to other non-MPL series - maybe a good "non-MPL comparitive series" would be the Proof Indian Cents - the populations are low, and the color scale is identical). So, are these MPL coins 'rare'?, or how do they stack up compared to other series? Having knowledge of the other scale that correcsponds with the Bower's scale would help. I'll find it. I would think most dealers would know the information, or it is certainly in my library.
    B) Price comparisons (again, among other MPLs within the series or compared to non-MPLs?);

    Important to remember, these are just coins listed for exemplary purposes, mind you. Using the above scale supplied by Ted, I can "quantify" each number in the "Top 10" and the number 27, which is the last MPL in terms of having the highest population all prices are based on a PR65 level:

    1) 1909VDB brown (8 certified); ["Extremely Rare"] - [Price $35,000]
    2) 1916 Red (20 certified); ["Very Rare"] - [Price $35,000]
    3) 1909VDB Red (30 certified); ["Very Rare"] - [Price $60,000]
    4) 1916 brown (32 certified); ["Rare"] - [Price $3,500]
    5) 1909 brown (35 certified); ["Rare"] - [Price $950]
    6) 1915 Red (44 certified); ["Rare"] - [Price $8,000]
    7) 1914 brown (47 certified); ["Rare"] - [Price $1,100]
    8) 1912 Red (52 certified); ["Rare"] - [Price $5,500]
    9) 1911 Red (60 certified); ["Rare"] - [Price $7,500]
    10) 1909VDB Red-brown (61 certified). ["Rare"] - [Price $50,000]

    27) 1913 Red Brown (232 certified). ["Scarce"] - [Price $1,375]

    Clearly, the brown coins (and even red-brown, in this instance) are presently under-valued (except the 1909VDB), considering their relative assummed rarity, and seem like a good value for the money. Their are pretty (and ugly) reds and there are pretty (and ugly browns). So it really comes down to the coin, as I see it.

    Duane
  • SteveSteve Posts: 3,313 ✭✭✭
    Duane, first my apology in my first post. I "thought" it was written by Bob (Watersport). I guess, to reiterate my point, if we are using PCGS or even NGC for determining the POP (number) of these MPL's don't we also have to take into consideration the color definitions that the TPG service uses? It seems to me, that just on normal distribution of MPL's which are 75 to over 98 years old when they were graded, that MOST would be expected to be graded red/brown. So I feel that any analysis of these certified MPL's have to take into account that the 95% or 5% "rule" for calling a coin RED or BROWN has to be considered. I am not at all surprised that most certified MPL's are classified as RB. My March, 2008 list showed 937 RED, 1,152 BROWN, and 2,710 RD/BN for a total of 4,799 PCGS, NGC & ANACS. JMHO. Steveimage
  • Steve-

    I understand your position. I just wanted to explain that I'm using JUST the PCGS numbers to exemplify a point. Also, I do agree that most of the MPL minted 75-100 years ago SHOULD be brown or red-brown. Especially brown. So why are their so few BROWN coins? That's my only point. Are brown coins with color truly rare? More so then "red" coins? The numbers are certainly compelling.

    David Bowers said that he has NEVER seen fully red coins coming off the mint press. So maybe the truly natural colors of the original coins was a golden brownish color (according to Bowers). Now we see coins that are brown, and some have toned in nice ways (and are worth the premiums being paid). Same with the red coins. Some have toned beautifully, and are worth the premiums paid.

    The problem is: THE PRICE GUIDE DOES NOT REFLECT THIS!!!!! And my question is how to address? You don't want to see people who have been vested for years with value, based on one way of thinking, lose value, because they collected in good faith. But when you look at the reality of this MPL series, many of the finest coins are NOT red.

    But the price guide does not reflect this (although the private market does).

    Why should an original coin, colored brown, but full of eye appeal, be valued (by the PCGS price chart) less then a red coin? Why is there such a price descrepancy among truly attrative coins, regardless of the color, in the price guides? My personal belief is that like so many things in numismatics, the original thinking was that we want coins as they originally came from the mint. And the coins came from the mint as "Red". With MPLs, the question is. What IS 'original' red?

    If a "brown" coin (like my 1916, which is for sale) is beautiful and original (and honestly reddish-brown), and has a 2-0 pop, why should it be valued in the price guide any differently from a beautiful and "original red" coin with a 2-0 pop? That is a mis-perception in the grading system, from my perspective. Original and rare should get original and rare money, despite if the slab says "BN" or "RD". I think collectors are getting savvy to this point quickly.

    It's been the tail wagging the dog, as far as my opinion goes. The collectors have not said that browns or red-browns are less valuable, but the price guide does. And the price guide is not truly reflective. We are seeing private sales all the time for brown and red-brown coins that do not go into the price guide, but are staggering high, and reflective of the red coin prices. That is fair. But from someone looking at things from the outside, the question could well be: "why is a rare (pop 2-0) coin being valued by the 'official' price guide for less then a more common coin"? That was my initial impression.

    So I still think there is a major market correction taking place, and that "eye appeal and 'beauty' of a coin are going to drive the prices in the eyes of collectors, and not a color designation or number on a slab. Investors may take a differant view of the matter. Eye appeal may not matter. But in the end, the less-then-beautiful coins will not have a home. I think we are seeing some of that now.

    Just one collector's sincerely humble opinion.

    I hope that other opinions are offerred.....

    Off to a family function......

    Sincerely,
    Duane
  • lasvegasteddylasvegasteddy Posts: 10,408 ✭✭✭
    hey duane,

    by the rarity scales of sheldon and bowers mpl's fall into (r3-r4) or (urs9-urs12) but these scales are merely referrence and play minor roles in most series and high roles in others

    are mpl's rare?...scarce is best applied as sheldon presented

    <<<B) Price comparisons (again, among other MPLs within the series or compared to non-MPLs?)>>>

    many collectors myself included know sleepers exsist...1st e.g. is the 1964 sms-with some less then 30 known (r6 or urs-6) trade more frequent then pop's would dictate and at price levels very low for the rare/very rare coin they are.

    2nd e.g. given if one looks at sms cam/dcam price levels become eye opening.cam desginated (r4/5-urs7/9) see many trade in $200-$600 commonly but dcam's (r7-urs4/5) rarely exchange hands but do so at low $k prices...how can that be?

    doug here could chime in with his thoughts on sms cam/dcam as he put his registry $$$ on them which aren't awarded properly in registry as set bonus which drives values to a degree

    teddy

    everything in life is but merely on loan to us by our appreciation....lose your appreciation and see


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