Poll: Big rally today (Sep 17)--are the lows in?
RedTiger
Posts: 5,608 ✭
Here we are again folks, another big rally day--the biggest ever in gold.
Same poll question that I did last month: Are the lows for the year in?
In the last poll 48% correctly predicted lower lows.
Aug poll thread
Same poll question that I did last month: Are the lows for the year in?
In the last poll 48% correctly predicted lower lows.
Aug poll thread
0
Comments
they were in a month or two when the news of AIG and etc... are
in the past.
It will take some more doosies to keep the rally going. even though
the US is having troubles now i think the rest of the world will falter
harder... thus the dollar will creep up, oil will creep down due to the
economy slowing down, and stocks will start being picked over for
winners down the road.
gold is being used as a safe haven. people want some time to go
by. once the dust settles and there is no more "this is it!" days...
gold will lose a bit of luster.
but for the true short term.. the next week... gold is glittering again!
so to summarize.. while i think they might not be much lower lows...
i expect it to start going down again by the end of the year.
hope i do not get too embarassed or i will never be able to post
below roadrunner again :-|
mainly.....because I still want some more time to scratch up more funds to buy at these lows......
<< <i>i wll go on the record for the price of silver and gold to be back where
they were in a month or two when the news of AIG and etc... are
in the past.
It will take some more doosies to keep the rally going. even though
the US is having troubles now i think the rest of the world will falter
harder... thus the dollar will creep up, oil will creep down due to the
economy slowing down, and stocks will start being picked over for
winners down the road.
gold is being used as a safe haven. people want some time to go
by. once the dust settles and there is no more "this is it!" days...
gold will lose a bit of luster. >>
Sorry, but I can't agree with your position. Roadrunner and I are pretty much on the same page on most everything.
Great minds think alike and all that, ya know.
Nothing personal, but I believe you are missing a few important points.
Time will tell, it always does. Still, it's nothing to get worked up about.
Precious metals are often a roller coaster and sometimes the car dives way down for a long time, but we haven't seen anything like the tops we are going to.
This bull still has some serious legs yet.
* Edit * I voted backing and filling, for now.
Might be quite different in a few weeks, though.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
The credit derivatives should only pick up steam in size and frequency from here. The first part of 2008 was just the opening act. Wish it weren't the case but can't fight Wall Street on this one. At some point J6P will figure out that everytime the FED or a major Bank says the worst is behind us, to just ignore it.
Once the dust finally settles in a couple of years, we won't recognize "it" anymore.
If the PPT and FED were as devious as possible, this latest move up was just another major trap to ensnare more gold bulls and newbies. I don't think they could be that cunning. But it would be one heck of a trap if it were.
roadrunner
<< <i>but we haven't seen anything like the tops we are going to. >>
...............I love reading these little gems hidden in his posts........
Depends on if I get in or not.
roadrunner
For those looking for a long term metal to hold the best is going to be Palladium. Why? Palladiums unique ability to absorb 900 times it's own weight in hydrogen will be critical in Hydrogen fuel storage for Hydrogen Fuel Cells that will be coming out in production model cars from General Motors and others in 2011.
With Palladium at $234 an ounce you can expect it to rival or overtake Platinum in value within the next decade, also with Russia being the largest producer of Palladium it will be in short supply if the current regime continues on their current course of rebuilding the Iron Curtain.
Fighting the Fight for 11 Years with the big "C" - Never Ever Give Up!
Member PCGS Open Forum board 2002 - 2006 (closed end of 2006) Current board since 2006 Successful trades with many members, over the past two decades, never a bad deal.
SEC puts 'naked' short sellers on notice
You know there's something wrong when the only silver or gold that can be purchased around spot is paper. I'd say this puts a kink in the system to control PM's. Now the Central Banks are the main players and they have more to worry about than the price of PM's IMO.
To be honest I am surprised by the new lows. The strength of the rally on poll day five weeks ago, had me fooled. At that time, I thought a retest was the worst case scenario, and even that unlikely. In hindsight, the strong rally is classic bear market action, that of short sharp rallies followed by lower lows. With gold 30% off the highs, a bear market is now confirmed.
As always, what comes next is the most pertinent question. Gold has seemed to decouple from oil, holding up better than oil. Given the 80% to 90% long term connection between gold and oil, I am not sure I am buying into more than a short term decoupling. I would still much rather have oil establish a low before going long gold on a trading basis.
As always, the above comments are more about trading positions than core positions. I have always believed that everyone with significant net worth should have some physical gold as insurance. Folks should establish this long term position over time, and be content to get an average price when buying (or selling).
I wrote here several times over the past few years that a 50% type killer correction as seen in the mid-1970's could happen to gold. It wouldn't kill the bull either, but it would change out the participants in wholesale fashion. While people lost their shirts in gold from Aug 1974 to Dec 1975 during a nasty recession, the ones that continued on from there saw gold increase by 8.5X in under 4 years. That doesn't mean it will follow that path again, but there are more parallels to the 1970's than not. My mistake was thinking that the 25% - 18 month correction correction we saw following the April 2006 peak ($735) was our worst case "1970's" type correction. Guess not...but time to forge on. Nothing has yet been fixed in the world, but if anything, only made worse by government meddlings.
Rather than being 1978 or so, it seems the gold time line is really back to 1974, indicating these current financial conditions will not play themselves out until 2013-2014. That could be the inflationary blow off of the current cycle.
Oil I think is starting to settle in the $65-$70 range. I'd be surprised if it fell further than that with the winter heating season now hitting much of the nation. Does a "blue state" mean you're cold and need oil?
roadrunner
the dollar is up.
oil is down.
gold glittered for a few days short term during the AIG news and then dropped again.
it is tough being right all the time ;-)
So where to now Kimosabe?
roadrunner
<< <i>so basically i was totally correct with my logical guess.
the dollar is up.
oil is down.
gold glittered for a few days short term during the AIG news and then dropped again.
it is tough being right all the time ;-) >>
Yes, when someone is right, I give them credit. Of all the replies to the thread, FC was one of those that got it right. FC even mentioned a month or two months as the time table, and it is five weeks since poll day and the new lows are here. It sure didn't look that way to the majority (and me) after the biggest one day rally ever for gold.
I see that a few folks are voting today. The poll is dated five weeks ago, not much use voting today unless you want to distort the results. When I refreshed the thread, there were 7 voting for lower lows (18.5%), now up to 11 (30%). Trading sure would be easy if we could go back five weeks to establish positions and get out today.
<< <i>What were the prices for spot back on 9-17?? >>
From the Kitco 60-day chart looks about $860 when I posted the poll. That big spike up on the chart was the biggest up day ever for gold. It went up over $900 and touched $920, but someone would be Houdini-like to get out with a profit if they bought physical gold at $860+ after this poll was posted.