The uncommon common problem

MintMoondog

I have a question for all members registering sets with PSA regarding a recent comment in the 75mini thread. Currently, no official price guide provides pricing information for uncommon commons. A simple question I would ask would be whether you would want to own a PSA9 George Brett mini rookie (pop 102) or a PSA9 Claudell Washington mini(pop1). The Brett 9 has routinely sold for between 5 and 6 hundred dollars. The last few Washington 8s have sold for over 400.00, and any mini expert can atest to the fact that there ain't many more out there. I understand one can use VCP to get a gage for where the market is for these cards. However, I am just curious as to the opinions of the expert collectors on these forums as to how you feel the uncommon common dilemma should be addressed going forward. This is with the understanding that this is still a pretty new phenomenon that has emerged as substantial number of cards have been documented with PSA.

Morgoth

There are two trains of thought

First: Claudell Washington will always be a common and just putting it in a slab with a number 8 on it should not be a reason make it sell for 2000X it normally sells for. You are essentially 100% buying the slab not the card. Only PSA set collectors would care about these kind of cards so their value is 100% tied into how strong you feel the registry will be in 5, 10 or 15 years from now. You must also factor in for finds of centered cards or just more unopened material that hits the graders and thus increasing pops in small incremental steps.

Second: Centered versions of this card are truly rare and the pop reports confirm this. You might be able to find 1000 off center versions for a quarter a piece but too get a truly nice version should cost 400 bucks due to the rarity. Your set may be raw and you say its NM/MT or better but I know for a fact my graded set truly is that nice. I believe graded sets are the wave of the future and based on current pop reports I don't expect rare commons to go up in pop after they reach a certain submission amount.

If PSA and a majority of set collectors fall into the 2nd train of thought, pricing all rare commons from sets makes sense. I would vote for some sort of submission amount before we declare a common truly "rare" and worth pricing seperately. Maybe there is a supplement in a future SMR that comes out once a year cataloging these cards.

hotmush

If PSA was smart, they would gather up one person per set. One person to track sales on ebay, and other auction houses and then spreadsheet the results and report them back per month. I'm talking track every card that is sold in that set that has been graded by PSA.
They could offer each off these 'set watchers' a few free submissions per month. Maybe a yearly CC subscription too.
I would track a couple of sets for that.
Then, they could have an online accurate price guide.
(or they could just takeover Vintage Card Prices... either way).

mmsportscards

Henry,

Yeah tough call. Not sure whats more important imo in tune with morgoth a commons a common but when going through the binder whats stands out that darn claudell correct

For 81 topps its a cardenal with no print and centered nearly impossible though i have the one for the future and klutts with no print. Dunno I saw a few 62 commons which a former collector connection sold raw went in the 200 market raw though very nice, after the auction ended 2cnd bidder wrote and asked if he had a another he then sold that one for 400 after scan for a COMMON though low pop. Same card in 8 sold for 1500 and 1700 if memory serves correct. What gives lol who wins dunno. You still have raw buyers and graded buyers and buyers on speculation

I myself love my claudell in a 7 holder and could make an 8 if i submit it again but things in my house in plastic usually dont last long, so it resides in a 7 holder and goes with my set.

Certain minis are tough as well as any year its just knowing its whats the difference between the pop and truth. Thats why everyone should take notes on this board or gobble any info possible.

Or just how committed are we is what im trying to get at LOL

Just my 2 cents

Gator

MiniDuff

I think low pop commons are a dangerous thing for a novice...

The challenge is to really know your set and know what is a low pop because it NEVER comes centered (or some other flaw) and what is low pop because of indifference.

As regular mini collectors know, if you rip 10 boxes of minis, you have a fair shot if not a good one of nailing a Brett 9. Anyone wanna lay odds on a centered claudell? That card is just one extreme example.

A different scenario has been discussed on the mini board as well: The Gibson HL. When minis were the cover story, only 1 9 had been graded and it was written about. Interest in the card spiked and all of a sudden, 9s started turning up and selling for $300+. Now there are 13 of them and they are still selling as if they are rare. I would be a seller if I owned one, regardless of where I sat on the registry.

SS

<< <i>whether you would want to own a PSA9 George Brett mini rookie (pop 102) or a PSA9 Claudell Washington mini(pop1). >>



If for my personal collection with no intention of selling anytime soon, give me the Brett any day. I'll take the nobody in an 8 or 7 for my set.

My '59 set (average grade = 6.11) has a lot a 5s that are commons, but the Aaron, Mays, Clemente, Gibson RC, etc are all 7s.

MintMoondog

Jim "Miniduff"
As usual you hit it right on the head. The problem with legitimizing the supposed scarcity of certain commons is that once it gets listed in a price guide there can be a sudden influx of graded samples which then puts that card in a position of being a common common with an uncommon price. In the past year I have been putting together minisets and noticed that 6 samples of PSA8 Hegan #99, and Harrah #131 have been graded significantly increasing their population. However, other tough commons such as Singleton #125 and Grimsley #458 have remained steady evin in the face of intense buying pressure. One year ago, there would be no way any expert could a priori predict which rare common card/s population would remain relatively stable. However, in response to SS - I see the logic of your set. Congrats! Must have been hard to put together regardless.
In my case, over time - I would probably be most excited about owning a centered, sharp-cornered C. Wash with no snow than I would a Brett rookie. I have seen enough of those and one is always coming up for auction on a by-weekly basis. Similarly, those that collect the 72 set know that the Expos team card #582 is a true beast. It is interesting to think of it this way, but I am more a fan of the set than I am the individual players in the set. Therefore, I give the HOFers their due respect, but there are common cards I find even more appealing - am I nuts?

MiniDuff

Nope. When I buy a raw lot or set, or rip a rack (I despise wax), I get more excited looking for the uncommon common. Funny you mention Hegan and Harrah, I graded 6 of the 12 cards you mentioned, but the numbers are bad, I cracked out two psa 8 hegans as well, so the true pop increase was only 4. One of them just came back an 8.5. I havent thought of it until this second and it is too late for what is done, but I wonder if you were to send in the cert from cracked out cards if they would adjust the pop report? Pop reports on 8s in the mini set are very misleading in some cases due to crackouts.

jeff8877

Miniduff...if you send in the old certs they will adjust the pop reports.

Jeff

MiniDuff

Thanks.. I wish I had thought of that about 100 minis ago.

Morgoth

MintMoondog by saying you would rather have the C. Washington over the Brett RC you are putting alot of stock in the pop reports and set registries to keep that card afloat. In that case you would almost have to have the uncommon commons priced at some point so that new collectors and non set registry people would realize what the card is worth and why so that you have some legitimate resell value other than what VCP says the last 5 brought in auction.