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Interesting Article

jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,897 ✭✭✭✭✭
I've read an interesting article which explains to me part of the reason for the declines in PMs.

Lacking any solid fundamentals, the dollar is cruising right along for the moment while gold and silver are getting severely hit, and this does help to explain some of it. There's alot of financial warfare being conducted in the world that we don't really hear about "over here".

The observations on Saudi and Russia are self explanatory.

Excerpts:

Saudi Arabia was forced to expand its M3 money supply by more than 20% in order to defend the dollar peg, which in turn, fueled inflation to +11.1% in July, it's highest in 30-years. In Abu Dhabi, the biggest member of the UAE federation, prices were 12.9% higher in June.

The Arab oil kingdoms rescued the US-dollar from the brink of collapse, by rapidly expanding the supply of Kuwaiti dinars, Saudi riyals, and UAE dirhams, and then recycled about $250 (billion) of Petro-dollars into US Treasuries over the past 12-months, through their brokers in London.

In return, the US armed forces are defending the Arab Oil kingdoms from their dangerous neighbors to the north in Iran, which seeks nuclear weapons, and is closely aligned with czarist Russia, and Venezuela's mercurial kingpin Hugo Chavez, - forming the "Axis of Oil."


Also,

Most interesting is the observation that the Euro's slide against the US$, is the near-perfect inverse image of the US-dollar's climb against the Russian rouble. The emergence of militarist Russia, ready to aim its nukes at Europe, and a stranglehold over Europe's energy supply, has triggered a mini-flight of capital from the Euro and the Russian rouble. In contrast, the US-dollar, backed by the world's most powerful military, wins by default as a safe haven.

Since Russia invaded South Ossetia and Abkhazia on August 7th, the Kremlin's foreign exchange reserves have declined by $16.4 billion, the biggest outflow of capital since the country's financial meltdown in 1998. Foreign investors, who hold roughly half of all Russian shares outstanding, many listed in London and New York, have sold an estimated $20 billion of Russian stocks. The Russian central bank was forced to sell US$5 billion in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the Russian rouble, after it tumbled 10% against the resurgent US$, to a one-year low.

While the Kremlin's coffers have mushroomed, the Russian corporate sector is still heavily reliant on foreign investors. The local bond market is small, with just $60 billion worth of ruble issues. Russian companies borrow funds on the world capital markets, and foreigners own half of the $1 trillion debt. But now, Russian companies are facing a liquidity crunch, since foreign lenders are balking and won't touch any Russian paper. The impact on the Russian stock market has been severe.

The Russian Trading system Index (RTS) was roiled by the exodus of foreign investors, who are on high alert for political risk. Since peaking in May, the Russian stock market plunged 40%, shaving roughly $500 billion from the value of Russian stocks. Foreigners dumped large blocks of Russian mining companies after Kremlin kingpin Putin, accused a large steel and coal mining company, Mechel, MTL.n of tax evasion, causing its share price to collapse. When Putin targets a company, there can be dire consequences, such as the demise of Yukos, a big oil company that was bankrupted on trumped-up tax charges.


The Saudi support for the dollar is still inflationary. The bailouts of Fannie and Freddie and IndyMac and Bear Stearns (and Lehman?) are still extremely inflationary. On the other hand, the wealth destruction taking place in response to the mortgage lending collapse is extremely deflationary.

We are caught between two extremes in volatility. In my opinion, that is a very good reason to avoid paper assets where possible. Buy physical.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

I knew it would happen.

Comments

  • Good article, thanks, I hadn't made the Russian financial connection, but makes total sense.
    imageQuid pro quo. Yes or no?
  • Well, so much for me not drinking tonight. After reading the above, I practically have no choice image
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    That Russian example is quite alarming. If you do intend to invest in mining companies, seek those mainly situated in stable policial environments such as Canada, US, Mexico, parts of South America, etc. One drawback is that most mining companies are somewhat diversified across the world. And besides the political risks, you have the envirowhacko's who want to shutdown every mine in the world, and prevent new operating permits from being issued.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
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