Opinions on the hugh increase in pop numbers in MS67FS+ Jefferson nickels since Jan 2002

NIckelCollector

Since the January 2002 PCGS pop report there has been about a 20% increase in MS67FS Jeffersons from 1938 – 1964 excluding SMS and an 82% increase in MS67FS 1965 – 2001 excluding SMS. If the same population rate increase (MS67FS) were to occur for the rest of the year, there could be an increase of over 120% and 492% for 1938 – 1964 and 1965 – 2001, respectively. During this same time MS68FS excluding SMS have increased from 2 – 5.

What factors are causing this increase in the pop numbers? Are higher prices bringing more coins to the market? Is it evolving PCGS grading standards? Is it the former PAK members finally selling their forgotten collections? Other reasons?

Regardless, what impact will all of this have on prices of MS67FS? Currently, there are 3 1940’s MS67FS Jeffersons on EBAY all bid less than $210. Are we starting to see a trend towards lower prices on MS67FS?????

Frank

CarlWohlforth

It is not just MS nickels. Now there is a '42-P proofs Jeffs in 69. There weren't any in the printed Jan '02 pop report. That Jan report had 2 '42-P Jeffs in PR 68 and that was the first time they showed up. Now we hear about Wondercoin and Laura's Commem.

My guess is strong prices for these coins finally brought some old time collections to market. Does anybody really know where these new coins are comming from?

Tonelover

What factors are causing this increase in the pop numbers? Are higher prices bringing more coins to the market?

You just answered your own question.

There are unslabbed Jefferson nickels out there by the roll, mint set, maybe even bag full. Not too many people used to think they were worth slabbing. But recent Jefferson "mania" put signs in the eyes of every condition rarity capitalist and they are sending them in as fast as they can and unloading them before the pops reflect the next batch of submissions.

The impact on all "pop tops" will be a decrease in value just like State Quarters. When the big money can't be made any more because the pops are too high, the search will be on for another series to be exploited at your expense.

If you love the series that's great, but patience will reward you with lower prices across the board.

Spooly

Tonelover

Cocoinut

I was able to locate 5 MS67FS Jeffersons on eBay, plus the MS68FS 1941-D that Bobzaps offered to the Board (current bid $7,851, reserve not yet met). Not too surprisingly, all of the MS67FS's were war nickels: a '43-P, 2 '43-D's, a '43-S, and a '44-S. They say that every dog has its day, and after being neglected for so many years, Jeffersons are finally enjoying some degree of popularity, provided they're gems and/or full steps. There's no doubt that higher prices are causing a lot of older BU rolls to be searched, and the craze for high grade modern issues is making people take a closer look at their mint sets.

The war nickels will continue to yield the largest number of FS coins, simply because silver is a softer metal than nickel. Some dates struck in the standard composition are easily found with full steps: all of the "D' mint coins from 1940-1950, and "P" mint coins from '40, '41, & '47. Watch for the pops on all of these to increase faster than the others, and I wouldn't be surprised if prices for these "common" dates came down.

Jim

clevegreg

There has been a fairly large group of Jefferson collectors, who until recently didn't consider slabbing to be of any particular value. Alot of the PAK people certainly felt that way. I suspect with some of the high prices being brough by quality pieces, some of these collectors may be bringing their coins out to play. I know I have seen some raw sets that are just awesome.

Greg

CarlWohlforth

Hey Greg, did those sets also contain proof Jeffs?

wondercoin

My $7800 bid and I can't even hit the reserve on that common date MS68FS Jefferson! It's madness I tell you, madness!!

And, yet, with all the evidence of swarming, proliferating pops, who is one of the key underbidders on the 41(d)? The author of this thread-no?

Wondercoin.

NIckelCollector

Mitch;

You certainly point out correctly my bids on the 41D MS68FS. Your comment "It's madness I tell you, madness!!" is EXACTLY my point. It will ultimately come down to good old supply and demand!!! Do you think demand will increase by over 100% to offset supply increase? I certainly would like to think so, but I really don't believe it.

There are common MS67FS+ coins and then there are the true rarities. Maybe these coins will increase or retain value. Only time will tell.

Frank

dbldie55

Wondercoin, what do you mean by your comments about the author of this thread? He gave some facts, and asked a question. I am not sure what that has to do with his bidding on this "one" coin.

Also, how is the price of one MS68FS coin related to the price of MS67FS coins? The question was the value of MS67's.

Since I do not know the values of these coins, I cannot really comment. The state quarters are similar, and the price of many of the MS68's have dropped substantially. Not all of them, but many. A general statement about MS67's should not be taken to be for specific MS67's. I am sure there are many dates in the Jefferson Nickel series where a MS67FS coin would bring huge money just like the MS68FS 1941-D seems to be worth to it's owner.

I guess the true answer to whether the trend is to lower prices will be seen in the upcoming year.

wondercoin

dbldie55: Let me just make "perfectly clear" that I totally respect Frank and, indeed, took 30 minutes last year (true or false Frank?) to state the case why Frank should gobble up a 1939(d) nickel in PCGS-MS67FS I had available and Frank was undecided on. I suspect Frank will conceed he heard sound reasoning from me on that issue and is quite pleased with his purchase.

Imho, I think what we are seeing here is serious nickel collectors, like Frank, capitulating on where things go from here-right? Questioning certain facts, yet still strongly involved in market direction; weighing all the information.

What makes it ever so tough, is no one has a crystal ball If I win that 1941(d) at under $10,000 and no more are graded for the next year, boy, did I ever look smart! If, on the other hand, I buy the coin and 5 more 1941(d) coins are made in the next 12 months, I may not look so smart. Either way, sideliners will write in stating that they told us so that the market was headed to crash (what idiot couldn't see it), or when prices double from here hypothetically that it is simply the "greater fool" theory and if we don't sell our prize coins at the new (double) levels we are crazy!! Am I right? Virtually no one will ever simply marvel at how wonderful a market may perform, even if it has done sensational. So, Frank, it is "lose-lose" no matter how you look at it!! Did I convince you to stop bidding yet Wondercoin.

dbldie55

Wondercoin,
Is there a tremendous increase in 1939-D Jefferson's in MS67FS? Or 1941-D's in MS68FS? Once again, you are using specific examples to make a general point. These two coins may always be very rare (I do not know what there numbers are), but that does not mean that other dates will not drop in price because more are made.

This is the same arguement you make when Dennis talks about State Quarters.

To the point of this thread, if they are in a wide variety of dates, it should not affect the prices. All would still be rare, just more dates would have them, and the Jefferson Collectors would want one of each. Only type collectors would be satisfied knowing the overall numbers are up.

Since I do not know what the date ranges are that these overall numbers are up in, it is hard to determine if it should make prices drop or rise.

NIckelCollector

By the way, I’m still a buyer – perhaps a little more cautiously going forward.

Mitch is absolutely correct about our conversation on the 39D MS67FS. It was definitely a good acquisition.

My guess some of the new MS68FS are going to the two top Jefferson sets out of the registry (Mint and Stockford). If this is correct, it would appear a single set rating of 66 is now obtainable – 13 upgrades from Mint’s set. (Finest Possible Set Rating: 66.27) WOW!!

I still think the high-end market is thinly traded. Who knows what will happen?

One last comment – I’m definitely out of the bidding for the 41D???

wondercoin

"This is the same arguement you make when Dennis talks about State Quarters.

dbldie55: You know I've grown to love you (wait till you see what prize you got from me when your dealer friend ever turns over your goods ), but, stop confusing my "issue spotting" with argument. Whenever you see a question mark at the end of a sentence, especially udnerstand that there is a question being asked, not a position advocated.

For all you know, I may believe the nickel market is crashing right now and that is what I might be sharing with my nickel colleagues. Or, I may think the market is about to take off. And, of course, who cares what I personally think. But, don't prevent me from raising a issue to discuss, because the moment an issue is raised you jump off the handle and conlude I think one way or the other.

This is purely hypothetical in nature, but what if the seller in the 1941(d) auction happened to mention to a couple folks what his reserve might be in the auction. Then, bidding me up would be "smoke and mirrors" only (and I AM NOT SUGGESTING THIS IS HAPPENING). My point is, I have my own ideas about the MS68FS nickel market, but my simple question of whether an auction could prove something like a hot nickel market in no way MEANS I am convinced the market is hot and I am telling everyone that "fact". I may personally believe the auction is meaningless in the sceme of things. Capish Wondercoin.

dbldie55

All right Wondercoin, guess I need to learn to "read" you. Guess there is no difference of opinion here.

But to get back to this thread, what are the dates that are getting "pumped" up with the new high grades? Is it a few, or a wide variety. The initial would affect prices down (I would think, unless more collectors come in) and the latter may increase prices as the ability to have a higher grade set overall may increase demand for these new coins.

Something I will happily watch from the side lines.

Also, I will make sure my dealer gets the coins when he goes down to LB next week. He will be bringing a Liberty Nickel down for me that I think is CAM (it looked DCAM in the scan) and want to see if we can get PCGS to agree.

itsnotjustme

Found this thread while searching for nickel prices... just bought a 67FS 1943-D for $109. Makes the $210 quoted above look high. Wonder what people will say in 6 months about what I paid?

leothelyon

Hi Brian
You have a very high quality FS Jefferson nickel there, congratulations. This thread was way before I joined the forums. But from reading the post, I believe the $210 price may have been referring to either 3 1940-P MS67FS or 3 MS67FS Jeffersons dated in the 1940's. I'm not sure which. But for many dates, you can check the PCGS's population on these Jeffersons to get an idea where the numbers are at. In my opinion, a few are very scarce, while some dates are quite common.

Leo

osirisMMII

A few years back I was going to put together a high grade war nickel set. I was absolutely thrilled when I was able to pick up 2 PCGS '43-D Jeffs in 67FS - one brilliant and one gold toned. At the time I paid what I thought was a fair price for two coins which were pop 8/0. I still have both of them......... but they are now pop 139/2!!!!!! And they can be picked up for about 1/3 what I paid

WWBillman

<< <i>Only type collectors would be satisfied knowing the overall numbers are up. >>



As a type collector I do not agree with that. I own a 40D & 42P Type 2 in MS67FS and I do not want to see the pops increase. Atleast for those 2 date/mintmark

Between the publication of the April 2002 quartly pop report and now the population of MS67FS War Nickels has had an overall increase of 55.

43P then 9 now 11 up 2
43D 124 139 15
43S 22 25 3
44D 52 70 18
44S 9 17 8
45D 33 41 8
45S 3 4 1

DIMEMAN

Tonelover hit the nail on the head. There are tooooo many of all of the modern coins to hold the crazy prices they are going for now. I mean $2500 for a 1999-P SBA. Give me a break.

Typetone

Hey!

If prices are really coming down, I would like to buy a nice common date Jeff in PCGS 67FS and a common date silver Jeff in PCGS 67FS. If anyone has one of either to sell, send me a PM with date, simple description, and price.

Cheers

Greg

leothelyon

I saw a PCGS67FS 43-D on ebay recently.

Leo

GQ

I would like to think that the market is collector driven.....we'll see.