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2008 Satin Finish Blues!

Here are some quick numbers that i crunched after reviewing in super great detail 600 sets and a total of 16,800 coins for quality.

of 16.800 coins 1.27% are worthy of sending in for 69 grade and actuals of course will be less.
States both P & D 6,000 coins 1/4 of 1% (.25) near 69 quality and actual will be less than that i'm sure.
Yuck, Kennedy and Jefferson's about 1/2 of 1% near 69 quality and extremely likely all of them will not make 69
Rooseies in 69 fb? Probably zero but I'll send in 3
Sacs, Presidential and Lincoln's are doable but quite slim.

Comments

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    StoogeStooge Posts: 4,649 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DnT:

    Why do you think is the reason for such horrible condition? Hasn't the mints been getting better with each passing year or is it just my imagination?

    Later, Paul.

    Later, Paul.
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    DatentypeDatentype Posts: 1,677 ✭✭✭
    Paul (nice photo by the way!), my screening numbers are pretty strict and pcgs might let some lesser Roosey's through to 69fb. I usually dissagree with the satin finish Roosey's they have 9'ed in the past as they are too loose IMO.

    As far as the lower quality - who knows? It is early but last year the coins only went down in quality for most denomainations for the later sets.
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    DIMEMANDIMEMAN Posts: 22,403 ✭✭✭✭✭
    All I need is Satins in 68 and BS coins in 66 0r 67!

    I wish the had left the whole thing alone where you could use one or the other. Now it takes twice as many coins each year!

    We (collectors) always got our coins for the year from mint sets. So what if the finish is different? Big deal!
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    Of the 20-2008 Mint sets I ordered, I have found them to be the worst I have EVER seen!
    The Kennedys are absolutely horrible, and the sets as a whole are really bad.
    You'd think that the Mint could supply us premium coins that at the very least are better than circulated rolls!
    image
    Audentes fortuna juvat
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    I did not order 2008 mint sets but have heard similar poor results from others that are hunting thru them for MS69 grades. A few SHQ have been made in MS69 being offered privately so they are releasing MS69 grades very sparingly. Hope you get some good grades Mark!
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    FullStepJeffsFullStepJeffs Posts: 1,874 ✭✭✭
    So that's the reason why in the Jefferson series, there is currently 140 in MS68FS from Philly and 96 in MS68FS from Denver, with no MS69FS graded to date... the 68's will be cheap... the 69's will be moon money.

    Guess I'm glad I didn't buy sets this year.

    Steve
    U.S. Air Force Security Forces Retired

    In memory of the USAF Security Forces lost: A1C Elizabeth N. Jacobson, 9/28/05; SSgt Brian McElroy, 1/22/06; TSgt Jason Norton, 1/22/06; A1C Lee Chavis, 10/14/06; SSgt John Self, 5/14/07; A1C Jason Nathan, 6/23/07; SSgt Travis Griffin, 4/3/08; 1Lt Joseph Helton, 9/8/09; SrA Nicholas J. Alden, 3/3/2011. God Bless them and all those who have lost loved ones in this war. I will never forget their loss.
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    renomedphysrenomedphys Posts: 3,508 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Could this all be related to the cash viability of the modern mint process? I don't know how much it actually costs to produce each denomination, but with cents and nickels costing more than face value, the mint may not be looking into quality the same way it looks at profitability. Duh. I would guess that Joe Smith Mint Employee doesn't really care about anything other than his paycheck, and the Quality Managers are just happy to see accurate production. As for the collectors... one of the few areas of Mint business that actually yields a profit... well, we are taken for granted as a surefire cash cow.
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    DatentypeDatentype Posts: 1,677 ✭✭✭
    Looks like i will have my coins back from the slab house this Friday. I guess i will try and sell the very toughest coins via private sale. if deals can not be made I will try Ebay. if there are any special needs please PM

    EDITED TO SAY: Okay all you people who have emailed me asking for what I have I will not be getting grades until Friday I have none until then. Secondly, i'm not going to just send out my list totals to people just for information purposes and for non-collectors of the series and other dealers etc. I am not stupid. You can tell me what you are looking for and i will get you prices
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    DatentypeDatentype Posts: 1,677 ✭✭✭
    results are in. What a waste of time!
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    mas3387mas3387 Posts: 1,491 ✭✭✭
    Mark it's September, a bit early for an April Fools joke

    Looks like the first PCGS MS69 Satin Finish State Quarter to show up for sale

    PCGS MS69 2008-P Oklahoma State Quarter Satin Finish

    Would be better to use the right picture image
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    DatentypeDatentype Posts: 1,677 ✭✭✭
    That's a great error coin
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    mas3387mas3387 Posts: 1,491 ✭✭✭
    Would that be considered a mechanical error
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    SilverstateSilverstate Posts: 1,537 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Would that be considered a mechanical error >>



    Yes, by the seller!

    image
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    ok there again I'm new or renewed to coin collecting.

    please explain to me from the above why I should pay over $2000for a ,PCGS MS69 2008-P Oklahoma State Quarter Satin Finish. When I can get a , PCGS MS69 2008-W Silver Eagle Dollar Coin FIRST STRIKE for $37.00.

    Theres things here I just don't understand.
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    cuzzx,
    I think I can explain. Simply put, it's supply and demand. Geeze, I hope I'm right or I'll be image

    RegistryNut image
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    << <i>results are in. What a waste of time! >>



    Tough Year for MS69s. How many Presidents in MS69 out of 600 Mint Sets? I remember you saying something about how none were tougher than GW-Ps from last year. Still feel the same?
    Seth
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    mas3387mas3387 Posts: 1,491 ✭✭✭

    PCGS MS69 2008-P Oklahoma State Quarter Satin Finish

    Wow the highest Pop to date only 7 coins graded MS69 sells for $1800.00 !!!!



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    DatentypeDatentype Posts: 1,677 ✭✭✭
    another dip $%@#
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    wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 16,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The buyer of that $1,800 coin will quite possibly lose 50% of his purchase price over the next 30-60 days. Some may then point to moderns being a "bad bet" and describe how collectors can lose 50% of their "investment" overnight. I routinely see these sorts of warnings all over some of the major coin publications. But, no one will point out that Datentype sold this exact coin for 50% of that price (or thereabouts) just the other day on ebay. A level that seems very reasonable to me and one that gives his buyer a fighting chance to do just fine on his early buy. I commend responsible price offerings, but do recogonize that buyers that offer $1,800 for pop 7 satin finish coins which are only a couple weeks old (and where tons of coins are still in the system to be graded) deserve whatever happens to them from there and generally only makes these kind of mistakes once or twice before adjusting their thinking. Just my 2 cents.

    Wondercoin
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
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    mas3387mas3387 Posts: 1,491 ✭✭✭
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    mas3387mas3387 Posts: 1,491 ✭✭✭


    << <i>where tons of coins are still in the system to be graded) >>



    We have ZERO State Quarters in for grading and not quite sure when or if we will do more. Anyone else have States in Mark? Seth? Anyone else? who can add some weight to scale to tip it more than a few pounds?
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    DatentypeDatentype Posts: 1,677 ✭✭✭
    Mike, I have states in and I plan on doing more satin finish sets.

    I want to make a living as a coin dealer over the long run and i know there are a lot of customers out there that need good "affordable" high end product. here's the problem with the ok-p: if pcgs loosens up around christmas time 1/4 grade they will be plentiful in my opinion.

    Here's the deal, i might as well expose myself right here and right now: These satin finish coins are not rare in 69image

    Okay, you're all saying where are the coins then? They are right in the million of sets that have not been purchased yet. The problem lies in it not being economically feasible in my opinion to search for them as follows:
    1.) face value is $13.82 and cost is $22.95, so you are in the hole $9.13 right off the start assuming the Ebay pieces net to face value after fees.
    2.)pcgs has some gravy train formula that they feel is creating a new market for the coins by making people slab 68 coin rather than a minimum 69 grade like last year. The problem with that is there are thousands of over graded coins from last year which is a direct slap in the face to the people that know it. I guess pcgs got tired of putting over graded coins in 9 holders to make a paycheck. Once again an admirable move for the "collector's company". But will these collectors be around when that vein of product comes around or that 1/4 point christmas bonus?
    3.) I forgot what do you do with your $22,950 investment after you have gone through 1,000 sets? If you had them graded you live in a sea of plastic. if you have a deal with a re-saler you are still in debt and have placed a huge sum of money in coins and plastic that are not rare and will take years to sell.

    dang typos edited and ohh I forgot I hope i'm not in trouble with the pcgs politboro that will soon tell me freedom of speech does not apply to pcgs dealers.
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    DIMEMANDIMEMAN Posts: 22,403 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I don't know why you dealers bother with these modern coins. Sure there are a few thousand collectors here on the registry (I don't know the actual number who collect moderns), but only a few who will pay the big bucks for the super high (69 or 70) grades. The thousands and thousands of average collectors out there only want a nice cheap coin. The market for these top pop coins looks very very very thin to me. I consider myself a very passionate collector and I just got my dimes for my complete dime set on ebay. Both the 2008 P&D in 68 for 10 bucks each. I know they are "ONLY" 68's, but that is 3 points "OVER" GEM!!!!! I just don't understand the need for these super high grades. I know many will scoff at these 68's, but if they were Barber halves they would be super coins!?

    And as several dealers here have stated, the cost and time to find these super high grades is tremendous. I just don't get it. Spending thousands or even hundreds of dollars for coins minted yesterday!?!?!?

    JMHO
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    eCoinquesteCoinquest Posts: 1,485 ✭✭✭
    Datentype, very good and informative post.
    I admit that I tried doing what you and a few other members are doing now. Only I tried in 2006 which was not one of the better years, IMO. Your points are exactly what I came to find out. Unless you like to live in plastic it is a tough way to make it. I commend those who can do it and make a profit at it.
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    mas3387mas3387 Posts: 1,491 ✭✭✭
    So why just SF coins, what about all the previous States from 1999 to date with low Pops these are not rare as well?

    Millions of mint sets out there still waiting for someone to find the next DE P MS69


    Moving on to the next project

    image
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    DatentypeDatentype Posts: 1,677 ✭✭✭
    Mike, apples and oranges here. Regular so-called business strike and specially minted satin finish. Yes there are million of unsearched sets out these for all of the dates and to me the question is can you find bulk amount of the product and search it at a reasonable price to feret out the coins.

    Mike, unfortunately the 99' to date coins have all dropped huge amounts since an ms67 was a hot coin in a 99' state holder and sold for well over a thousand. People find a way and the money brings out the search. As always is the wild card, will pcgs grade that 2003-d sac as an 8 today or that de-p as a 9 today and do they have proper controls in place to catch errors or are they used to grading all sac's as 8's or 9's that day etc.
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    wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 16,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    While Mark makes some good points, I agree with Michael that a number of top end specimens of the 2008 SF coins are very tough to obtain and may well continue to be in the future. Remember, I said that $1,800 made no sense to me for that coin - but $900 seemed more "fair" (and obviously Mark felt the same way pricing his coins there).

    The notion of submitting incredible quantities of coins to find more high end specimens of something applies to many coins dated in the 1960's - date (and for some denominations the 1940's to date!) - not just 2008 SF coins. It's now a year later and G. Washington MS69 SF coins are now worth strongly between $1,000 - $2,000 per coin. Why hasn't anyone recently (other than Seth image ) slabbed a bunch of them with that "payday" attached to them? Answer - the project costs way, way too much for the few # of good coins generated. Quite possibly the same will apply to a number of the 2008 SF coins. We'll see.


    Wondercoin
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
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    wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 16,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "2.)pcgs has some gravy train formula that they feel is creating a new market for the coins by making people slab 68 coin rather than a minimum 69 grade like last year. The problem with that is there are thousands of over graded coins from last year which is a direct slap in the face to the people that know it. I guess pcgs got tired of putting over graded coins in 9 holders to make a paycheck. Once again an admirable move for the "collector's company". But will these collectors be around when that vein of product comes around or that 1/4 point christmas bonus?"

    Mark - That is a very "deep" post and I do understand exactly what you are trying to convey. I agree with you on the point that the grading services should permit whatever min grade submittors desire to utilize. Of course, PCGS has the right to charge a fee for every coin that fails to make the minimum grade and therein lies the problem. PCGS has determined from their early submissions that it is only "profitable" to them and the submittors jointly to use the MS68 grade level (i.e. that few coins are grading MS69). I believe it is that freedom of the submittor to make a choice of min grade that should be permitted, as it was last year - even if it means submittors getting back invoices with no coins slabbed on the invoice and a bill for hundreds of failed submissions with nothing in return. Why not? But, by having the min grade set, it does make it easy for the "less informed" to submit coins and have a chance to make any money, which is probably behind PCGS' position, not to mention dollars in the door of course.

    Wondercoin

    P.S. At least we are having an interesting discussion today on this board.
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
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    Good analysis guys. I sold MA-P in MS68 for $2,500; PA-P in MS68 for $6,000, CT-P in MS68 for $3,500, NJ-D in MS67 for $3,000 when I liquidated my original collection on Teletrade and pops were very low. Then prices fell steeply and I got back into collecting them. Did others notice the big prices and then go after it driving the prices down, @#! yes! the American way!

    When I consider buying 2008 SF coins I look at a hypothetical value 60 days from now. IMHO the OK-P sf69 is currently worth around $800 and could easily fall to $500 within 30 days if the pop hits 20 coins and that is very likely. Only bulk sf orders seen so far and lots of collector orders in the pipeline. If the pop of the OK-P sf69 stays at 7 coins over the next 30 days the value will double to around $1,600.

    A volatile and risky market not for the faint of heart. First time in many years I did not order mint sets, interesting to see this from the outside looking in for a change. Ain't it fun! dr

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    to this novice collector this looks like the WV-D story all over again. I will be willing to wager that most makers are holding on to their best 68 coins and will crack out when grading looks softer.
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    DatentypeDatentype Posts: 1,677 ✭✭✭
    wv-d would still be a lower than 10 pop coin in 69 and maybe as low as 1 or 2 if they did not pop it out by lowering the standards by 1/4 point. I made about 7 of them from my last 1,500 mint set run around a year ago and the previous 1,500 sets i made zero in 69 in 2005. Truth is the 1/4 point comes and goes so Doug Rall's discounted net present value type approach out 60 days is a reasonable concept. The wild card is the discount rate chosen to come up with your value and estimated pops and demand etc.
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    Great analysis!
    PCGS sets under The Thomas Collections. Modern Commemoratives @ NGC under "One Coin at a Time". USMC Active 1966 thru 1970" The real War.
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    << <i>Mike, I have states in and I plan on doing more satin finish sets.

    I want to make a living as a coin dealer over the long run and i know there are a lot of customers out there that need good "affordable" high end product. here's the problem with the ok-p: if pcgs loosens up around christmas time 1/4 grade they will be plentiful in my opinion.

    Here's the deal, i might as well expose myself right here and right now: These satin finish coins are not rare in 69image

    Okay, you're all saying where are the coins then? They are right in the million of sets that have not been purchased yet. The problem lies in it not being economically feasible in my opinion to search for them as follows:
    1.) face value is $13.82 and cost is $22.95, so you are in the hole $9.13 right off the start assuming the Ebay pieces net to face value after fees.
    2.)pcgs has some gravy train formula that they feel is creating a new market for the coins by making people slab 68 coin rather than a minimum 69 grade like last year. The problem with that is there are thousands of over graded coins from last year which is a direct slap in the face to the people that know it. I guess pcgs got tired of putting over graded coins in 9 holders to make a paycheck. Once again an admirable move for the "collector's company". But will these collectors be around when that vein of product comes around or that 1/4 point christmas bonus?
    3.) I forgot what do you do with your $22,950 investment after you have gone through 1,000 sets? If you had them graded you live in a sea of plastic. if you have a deal with a re-saler you are still in debt and have placed a huge sum of money in coins and plastic that are not rare and will take years to sell.

    dang typos edited and ohh I forgot I hope i'm not in trouble with the pcgs politboro that will soon tell me freedom of speech does not apply to pcgs dealers. >>



    Your listings on eBay say that the 69s are rare, but maybe you need to post the above statements on your ebay listings too if you're being fair & honest?
    Seth
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    DatentypeDatentype Posts: 1,677 ✭✭✭
    Seth, I sense someone is getting a little pissy with me and i like it - let's dance!image
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    << <i>Seth, I sense someone is getting a little pissy with me and i like it - let's dance!image >>



    I think you're acting like a clown & have no business being a dealer with your willingness to publicly drag all of your dirtly laundry out. You ought to hang your head in shame instead of getting froggy with the first person to point it out.
    Seth
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    wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 16,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I've been to Preservation Hall in New Orleans and this thread is appropriately titled "Satin Finish Blues". The 2008 coins are very tough in MS69 grade, the parameters us bulk submittors need to work under to produce MS69's is tough - how many readers out there have ever produced 500-1,000 SF slabs of a denomination in a week (and filled a closet with them) to attempt to slab a single MS69 SF coin (and failed at that)? The stakes are very, very high. The rewards can be high as well. ANYONE can play - the game is open to all, but, only a handful or two ever do commit the tens of thousand(s) of dollars of grading fees to some of these projects (and less people than that successfully). Perhaps more on this later.

    Wondercoin
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
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    In 2005 I submitted my SF coins in small orders to PCGS and I did not know about the "bulk program". I went thru 300 mint sets and picked only the very very best of each of the ten coins I needed for my SHQ set and sent the 10 coins in, I was excited about the qualtiy and used the $30 regular grading service.

    I got a perfect 10 MS69 set including the then rare KS-P as well as the still rare WV-D, and the WV-D pop held at two and then three for a long time. Admittedly this was a lucky once in a lifetime situation where I got the very first strike sets from the mint in a year where the quality was superlative (first year of SF).

    There are other ways to get MS69 graded without generating a closet full of slabs. I trust in the PCGS system and they will grade MS69 if the coin submitted deserves the grade. I applaud PCGS effort of not giving up grades in exchange for large grading orders. You should not have to submit hundreds of coins to get PCGS MS69 IMHO.

    If you are very selective in grading you end up with a lot more intact mint sets to resell that still contain MS68 quality coins and these gently used sets should be worth more on the open market than a $9 face value loss for each set. Under selective grading the value of MS68 will hold up better as the supply generated by slective grading will be less and the quality of the slabbed coins will be overall higher since only shot 69 coins will be submitted.

    I appreciate you guys doing the hunting now and the huge amount of money and work it takes to find these rare MS69 coins and get the proper grade on them! This year the landscape has changed and to remain economically competitive selective grading orders may be a superior way to go.

    Thanks for all the coins you all have sold me in the past and in the future. Your pedigree may be found next to each coin in my registry. dr
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    wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 16,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "There are other ways to get MS69 graded without generating a closet full of slabs"

    Agreed, but, I sure know a few very respected modern submittors with such closets, so to each his own. And, I am perfectly fine with the strategy of buying 500-1000 sets and screening up to 28,000 coins to find a couple hundred submittable coins - I have used this strategy effectively myself in various programs. What was a good strategy in 2005 might be a horrible strategy in 2008 and vice versa image

    Wondercoin
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
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    DatentypeDatentype Posts: 1,677 ✭✭✭
    This is fun, like the good ol' days on the baords! Was your wife giving you a hard time this morning and you needed to vent? I can hear it now, "after you do your chores around the house, please post about that bad Man on the boards, he's wrecking our action by writing the truth - he must be an Obama lovin' democrat or something by the way it sounds"

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    Most of the information I have on posters of this thread all have wives that are sweet as pie. You must have just brought out the best of us all by yourself. image
    Seth
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    DatentypeDatentype Posts: 1,677 ✭✭✭
    Seriously, just to set the record straight, i do not have any "dirty laundry" with PCGS as we have had a tremendous business relationship for over 10 years and they have made me a happy and very successfull man. There was a complaint about me by someone (guess who) and they do not see anything wrong with anything I have said in any way and there is no dealer violation at all - not an issue closed case. Want some cheese with that whine?

    I have also talked to Seth on the phone about the issue in a calm manner and he is in total agreement with the substance of my remarks on this post. The only problem he has is that I said it period. It is true this sort of stance hurts authorized dealers overall - as it makes collectors tentative and unsure of when and how much to pay. That is my whole point though, I do not want someone to pay $1,800 for a coin, like the ok-p, that is less informed. I would just like to educate the public in some sort of way about this situation and let them know how really difficult these coins are in high grade but wait to buy as many have a decent chance to go down. The information is not in, it is early.
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    wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 16,716 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "I do not want someone to pay $1,800 for a coin, like the ok-p, that is less informed"

    I had that point covered a page or two ago! LOL

    Wondercoin
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
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    I happen to disagree with your last statements Mark, but it's time to move on. Many of your points are well taken.
    Seth
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    Dan50Dan50 Posts: 1,809 ✭✭✭
    Datentype for President
    Coin Diva for Vice President. imageimage
    Dan
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    eCoinquesteCoinquest Posts: 1,485 ✭✭✭
    I vote for ME!image
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    MrYukMrYuk Posts: 110 ✭✭
    I appreciate the post. Very informative. image
    The last of the human freedoms is to choose one's attitude in any given set of circumstances. Viktor E. Frankl


    EZ_E/Victor/Mr.Yuk: lover of prehistoric, megabeast-sized canines. EVP
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    cladkingcladking Posts: 28,353 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Great thread. Thanks DatenType (et al).

    I'd have missed it if it weren't linked ATS.


    It won't be long until these coins are no longer current and this thread is in the archives.
    Tempus fugit.
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