What are the HOF chances for the following players? (see list in thread)
thenavarro
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Do y'all think the following players will make the baseball hall of fame?
Roberto Alomar, Gary Sheffield, Jeff Bagwell, Pedro Martinez, Jeff Kent, Trevor Hoffman, Jorge Posada, Andruw Jones, Miguel Tejada, David Ortiz, Johann Santana, Ichiro Suzuki, Larry Walker
Most of them are listed in the PSA Set Registry under HOF Players, Future HOF rookies. As some of y'all know, i collect HOF signed rookies so just trying to get some arguments to include/exclude these guys.
Take care,
Mike
Roberto Alomar, Gary Sheffield, Jeff Bagwell, Pedro Martinez, Jeff Kent, Trevor Hoffman, Jorge Posada, Andruw Jones, Miguel Tejada, David Ortiz, Johann Santana, Ichiro Suzuki, Larry Walker
Most of them are listed in the PSA Set Registry under HOF Players, Future HOF rookies. As some of y'all know, i collect HOF signed rookies so just trying to get some arguments to include/exclude these guys.
Take care,
Mike
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Gary Sheffield - No.
Jeff Bagwell - Great guy, but no. Certified Cub killer, though
Pedro Martinez - Over-rated. One thing is certain with Pedro - the annual trip to the DL. Had a few of the most outstanding pitching seasons (see 2000), but was not consistent afterwards due to injury.
Jeff Kent - Yes.
Trevor Hoffman - Yes.
Jorge Posada - Interesting one. Never really looked at the stats. East Coast bias should help.
Andruw Jones - No.
Miguel Tejada - No - especially with the news earlier this year.
David Ortiz - on the path but don't get influenced by the availability bias.
Johann Santana - too early to tell
Ichiro Suzuki - No comment.
Larry Walker - One of my favorite players and one of the best hitters, but no.
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I've got a soft spot for Walker as he was my favorite player in the 1990's after Tony Gwynn, and would like to see him make it. He won three batting titles, a homerun title, one MVP Award, seven gold gloves and was a five-time All Star. I'm just not sure how much the "Coors Field Effect" will hurt him.
If Sheffield comes back and reaches 500 homeruns, he'll have a shot, but the steroid issue will haunt him. Same with Bagwell...his stats are HOF-worthy, but the steroid issue is a big factor with him also.
Looking at Kent's stats, he looks like a HOFer to me, but I just don't know...he's never really excited me a whole lot.
I don't see any of the others having any real chance at induction.
Steve
edited 'cause I can't spell
Alomar and sadly Hoffman are also locks, I don't think anyone else will get in off that list (regardless of whether or not Sheffield gets to 500 homers--he's as big a cheater as Bonds, the voters won't forget that, unless of course they eventually let in McGuire). 500 homers is no longer the stat it used to be, dominance measured over a length of time (probably 10 years), will play a much bigger factor moving forward. That being said, if Ichiro has probably 3 more .300/200 hit years he will, and Santana will have to play at a high level for at least 3-5 more years before he'd get an consideration as well. Who can predict what to do with Big-Papi? I'd suggest at least another 3 .300/25/100 years before anyone would consider it.
Jay
Pedro is an absolute lock--three Cy Youngs, won the award in both leagues, led the league in ERA FIVE times (and finished 2nd once), led the league in WHIP an astounding SIX times, and was as dominant as any pitcher in baseball for about a seven-year period. Sure, he's been hurt often the last couple (actually 3 years) years, but he'd easily earned his way into the HOF long before these last couple seasons. Was also a key member of the '04 Sox team that finally brought a title to Boston, winning Game 3 of that World Series with 7 innings of shutout ball in the process.
Too early to tell for guys like Santana and Ortiz. Suzuki will have a good shot, too, and probably Hoffman because of all the saves.
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Gary Sheffield - No.
Jeff Bagwell - No.
Pedro Martinez - Yes. 3000 K's, 3 Cy Youngs, finished in top 4 for 4 other Cy's, 8X all star, triple crown in '99, 3rd highest K:BB ratio of all time, 5th best winning % of all time..... enough said. Not sure how you can call the guy overrated!
Jeff Kent - Great hitting 2nd baseman, but not sure. Maybe?
Trevor Hoffman - Yes.
Jorge Posada - No.
Andruw Jones - No....it's a shame, because he surely was on pace for a historic career. If he would've put up one of his average years, he'd be at 400+ hr's, 1250+ rbi's and 1800+ hits by the time he turned 32. Tie that with his gold glove run, and that's pretty much today's version of Willie Mays. I hope he'll turn it around.
Miguel Tejada - No
David Ortiz - Too early.
Johann Santana - Too early
Ichiro Suzuki - Yes. Amazing hitter, amazing defense, and he'd already be at 3000 hits if he played in the MLB his whole career. Scary thing is, he's only 34 so he may still reach it.
Larry Walker - No
<< <i>
Pedro Martinez - Over-rated. One thing is certain with Pedro - the annual trip to the DL. Had a few of the most outstanding pitching seasons (see 2000), but was not consistent afterwards due to injury.
>>
Not consistent after 2000?
'02- 20 wins, 2nd in Cy young voting, lead league in ERA and K/9
'03- 14 wins, 3rd in Cy Young, lead league in ERA and K/9
'04- 16 wins, 4th in Cy young, 9th in ERA and 2nd in K/9
'05- 15 wins, 4th in ERA and 5th in K/9
Is he hurt now? Yeah he is, but to say that he wasn't great after the '00 season is crazy.
Gary Sheffield - No.
Jeff Bagwell - No. (probably did roids' and didnt crack 500 homers
Pedro Martinez - um, yes. double.Yes. 3000 K's, 3 Cy Youngs, finished in top 4 for 4 other Cy's,
Jeff Kent - very possible
Trevor Hoffman - Yes.
Jorge Posada - No way.
Andruw Jones - No. and if he doesnt find his swing soon he may done with the game.
Miguel Tejada - No, but he'd be a maybe if not for the roids issue
David Ortiz - Too early. and i see him ending his career early due to injuries
Johann Santana - possible, check back in 5 years.
Ichiro Suzuki - Yes.
Larry Walker - No, but I think he was a hell of a ball player, too bad he played in coors.
Omar Vizquel: the best defensive SS in the last 20 years; as good or better than Ozzie smith. swung a decent bat, stole some bases, scored some runs. has more Runs, hits, homers, Doubles and RBI's than ozzie too, higher BA and OBA.
Gary Sheffield - without the steroids yes and yes, with them no and no
Jeff Bagwell - ditto
Pedro Martinez - yes and yes - arguably the greatest pitcher of all time. Yes he's a jerk, but he's clearly a HOFer
Jeff Kent - no and no
Trevor Hoffman - no he shouldn't, yes he will
Jorge Posada - no and no
Andruw Jones - no and no; maybe a Mazeroski exception, though
Miguel Tejada - no and no
David Ortiz - today no and no; someday maybe
Johann Santana - WAY too early to tell
Ichiro Suzuki - no and yes
Larry Walker - so many injuries, such an awesome hitter. I'm going with yes he should, no he won't
Steve
When you say the Mazeroski exception, are you referring to being in a four way tie for the best defensive player ever with Dave Cash, Gene Alley, and Bill Mazeroski?
Roberto Alomar YES will make it. Should not make it.
Sheffield will NOT make it. No way deserves to make it.
Bagwell will NOT make it. Deserves to make it. Steroid doubt clouds it.
Pedro. YES will make it. Absolutely deserves it.
Kent. YES will make it. Writers cannot see past the live ball numbers with him...heard too many writers talk about him. Does not deserve it.
Hoffman. YES will make it. Not sure if he deserves it.
Posada. NO will not make it. Funny how everyone has IRod as a lock though...hmmm.
Andruw Jones. NO he will not. He is gone already. He may be 35 yrs old right now. Does not deserve it either. Good defense, no way to claim best ever. Lazy.
Miguel Tejada NO he will not. Wasn't excellent long enough, and roids. Does not deserve it.
Dave Ortiz. No he will not. He got good at too late of an age. Won't deserve it either. Not good long enough. Will break down more. Steroid cloud.
Johan. YES he will make it. Yes he deserves it(almost already). Easily with a few more good seasons. Crystal ball prediction
Ichiro. YES he will make it. Not sure if he deserves it. Japan play does not count for our Hall of Fame. A joke on how few doubles and triples he gets. Many of his singles are only as valuable as walks.
Larry Walker. No he will not make it. No he does not deserve it. Coors helped tremendously. Hurt all the time. Goes into glass HOF w/ Nomar and Prior. What good does a great hitter do if some scrub has to play 35 games in your stead nearly every year? It does good, but not as good as slightly lesser hitters who played all the time.
<< <i>Dave Ortiz. No he will not. He got good at too late of an age. Won't deserve it either. Not good long enough. Will break down more. Steroid cloud.. >>
I agree that he doesnt desreve it, but I have not heard of any "steroid cloud" around him, can you elaborate?
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You worded this perfectly.=== "Ichiro. YES he will make it. Not sure if he deserves it. Japan play does not count for our Hall of Fame. A joke on how few doubles and triples he gets. Many of his singles are only as valuable as walks."
I honestly think his offense is overrated. I think he is totally a stat guy. I also believe his SB's are way overrated. If Arod wanted to he would steal just as many. What will Ichiro get 45 steals-I'm truly not that impressed with him anymore. JMO.
Personally, I believe players with south of the border roots/connections have a far higher chance that they were on something(ala Sosa), and will never even get sniffed at being caught. There was something mentioned about him previoiusly, and he commented(I don't remember exactly). He also got real good real quick after a lot of years of being a sub....though that is not necessarily an indictment...
...As his career path looks awfully similar to George Fosters. They both had that long stretch at their beginning of their careers of being part time, or not quite good yet, then about five to six superb hitting years...and then they really started to fall off the table(and then ended with an early big thud). Well, Ortiz hasn't ended yet, but his percentages are way down this year, and I think we have seen the best of him. He probably has a few more good years left in him, but I would be shocked if they were as good as his prime ones.
Mickey71, Ichiro is bascially singles and some stolen bases. I would be more impressed if he were getting 70 SB a year, and 50 doubles when he is hitting .320+. Instead he gets a lot of infield singles, and short outfield singles....as a result his .330 batting average is not as good as other's .330 batting average. Why? Because his singles don't advance base runners to the same degree as others who have deeper outfield singles, thus creating less runs.
Ichiro has had basically one season that I would consider Hall of Fame caliber...and that is including his defensive value.
<< <i>Dallas,
When you say the Mazeroski exception, are you referring to being in a four way tie for the best defensive player ever with Dave Cash, Gene Alley, and Bill Mazeroski?
>>
Yes, skin, that's exactly what I meant.
No, what I meant was it is possible that Jones will make it to the Hall based on the votes of enough writers who consider him the greatest CF ever. Given the inherent uncertainty in making that determination, I think that it's not a completely unreasonable conclusion. It's a long shot, but it is a possible way into the HOF for Jones.
Roberto Alomar - Yes - 1st or second ballot
Gary Sheffield - Yes - 2nd or rd ballot epending on steroids
Jeff Bagwell - Steroids may hurt him although I've never heard an allegation but in my mind he's in easily
Pedro Martinez - easy call, yes
Jeff Kent - Yes - most feared hitter at 2B in the last 30 years
Trevor Hoffman - marginally in
Jorge Posada - No
Andruw Jones - No
Miguel Tejada - No
David Ortiz - Unfortunately he didn't play a lot the first 6 years he was in the majors so overall numbers will keep him out
Johan Santana - Need more of a body of work - probable if no major injuries
Ichiro Suzuki - Yes, no question. 1st ballot if he retired today
Larry Walker - No
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1 - 1991 ROY
2 - 1994 MVP (39 HR in strike shortened season and hit .368)
3 - Top 3 in MVP voting 3 times - Top 10 6 Times
4 - 30/30 TWICE
5 - 3 Silver Sluggers at the toughest position to win them at
6 - Over 100 Walks 7 Times
7 - 82 RBI or more for 15 straight years (over 100 8 of those years)
8 - .948 career OPS (23rd all time - every eligible guy above him is in except McGwire)
9 - Won a gold glove
10 - By all accounts a great guy and a great teammate - media loved him
Hey, I always liked the guy. I wish the Sox didn't trade him for Larry Anderson just to get swept out of the playoffs in 1990. I truly believe he was one of the two or three most feared hitters of the entire decade of the 90's. That's Hall of Fame in my book.
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I don't think anyone disagrees that Bags wasn't a HOF level hitter. I also don't think that by the time he is on the ballot anyone will doubt that he was using steroids. One of my favorite players back in the day, now he's just on my cheaters list. Damn shame.
Sorry for the double post but here is why Bagwell must be in (if no steroid stuff comes out about him)
Steroid stuff already did come out about him.
Steve
<< <i>Personally, I believe players with south of the border roots/connections have a far higher chance that they were on something(ala Sosa), and will never even get sniffed at being caught. There was something mentioned about him previoiusly, and he commented(I don't remember exactly). He also got real good real quick after a lot of years of being a sub....though that is not necessarily an indictment...
...As his career path looks awfully similar to George Fosters. They both had that long stretch at their beginning of their careers of being part time, or not quite good yet, then about five to six superb hitting years...and then they really started to fall off the table(and then ended with an early big thud). Well, Ortiz hasn't ended yet, but his percentages are way down this year, and I think we have seen the best of him. He probably has a few more good years left in him, but I would be shocked if they were as good as his prime ones.
>>
With Ortiz, I think the cloud of suspicion stems from the time he was asked about steroids and he responded by saying something along the lines of "Man, I don't know what has gone into my body." It kinda came out sounding like an admission of guilt but also a passing of the buck.
As far as his career path goes, I tend to agree that the best is probably past him. I'm giving him a free pass for this year though because he's had injury problems and now that he seems to be getting better his numbers are improving. I think it will be interesting to watch his career for the next couple years and see if the loss of Manny Ramirez will have any effect on his numbers.
<< <i>Sorry for the double post but here is why Bagwell must be in (if no steroid stuff comes out about him)
Steroid stuff already did come out about him.
Steve >>
i must have missed it Steve. Have a link? I'd be interested. That'd be a shame.
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Roberto Alomar - .300 BA, 2700+ hits, perennial gold glover, yes.
Gary Sheffield - No. 500 hr not enough because of Mitchell Report. 500 may not be enough even for a "clean" player.
Jeff Bagwell - No.
Pedro Martinez - Lock. Best or near best winning percentage with 200+ wins, best Latin pitcher of all time.
Jeff Kent - Yes, if he gets 3000 hits.
Trevor Hoffman - Probably.
Jorge Posada - No.
Andruw Jones - No.
Miguel Tejada - No.
David Ortiz - on the path but long way to go, and likely will face anti-DH bias.
Johann Santana - On path, but long way to go.
Ichiro Suzuki - A lock if he gets 2,500+ hits, likely in if 2,200+
Larry Walker - No.
Gary Sheffield - No. And not ever.
Jeff Bagwell - Yes. But not on the first ballot.
Pedro Martinez - Yes. But not on the first ballot.
Jeff Kent - Yes. But SEVERAL ballots down the line.
Trevor Hoffman - Yes. But not on first ballot.
Jorge Posada - No.
Andruw Jones - No.
Miguel Tejada - No.
David Ortiz - No.
Johann Santana - No.
Ichiro Suzuki - Yes. And on the first ballot.
Larry Walker - UNFORTUNATELY NO.
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Hoffman.....These one inning wonders have no place in the HOF. If we are going to put one in....its Rivera.
Larry walker was HOF material. I say yes. He was a great hitter, with individual awards. Because he played in coors field he's not....
well is te williams any less due to a short porch.?????
The steroid guys.......that will be the argument for the next 20 years. sheffield was great, so was bagwell.......can they overcome the controvery?
all others no. too soon for Ortiz...and the DH is going to have to get more respect and edgar Martinez needs to get in first.
Ichiro is definately on the track...and maybe his Japanese stats will help.
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Gary Sheffield -- No
Jeff Bagwell -- No
Pedro Martinez -- No
Jeff Kent -- Yes
Trevor Hoffman -- Yes
Jorge Posada -- No
Andruw Jones -- No
Miguel Tejada -- Too Early
David Ortiz -- Too Early
Johann Santana -- Too Early
Ichiro Suzuki -- Yes
Larry Walker - No
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