Has Sinclair Gone Into the Bunker?

OneCent · August 15, 2008 7:45AM

With the hammering that metals have taken this week, has Sinclair given up the ghost of $1,500 gold?

fc · August 15, 2008 7:51AM

<< With the hammering that metals have taken this week, has Sinclair given up the ghost of $1,500 gold? >>

you too can pay XXX amount of dollars per year for his elite emails
telling you repeatedly this is it!

lets face it, if you keep saying it long enough, gold will eventually
go over 1000 and hit 1500 some day.

i see it being years and years away. the next bull cycle.

i am also curious what his next email will be about. how will he explain
such a large drop. maybe he is waiting for the rebound that is sure
to happen with the next round of bad news, slight dollar dip, and oil
goes up 5 bucks? ;-)

originalisbest · August 15, 2008 8:01AM

This is a brilliant forum move -- now the US Coins forum can revolve around (shudder)... numismatics!

originalisbest · August 15, 2008 8:02AM

He'll probably rave on and on about the secretive powers and their evil manipulation of the markets.

coasterfan · August 15, 2008 9:45AM

Did anyone ever take Sinclair up on his bet?

RedTiger · August 15, 2008 5:35PM

<< Did anyone ever take Sinclair up on his bet? >>

Seems yes...

from
Sinclair

<< April 4, 2008 Sinclair wrote:
Dear Friends, My reason for proposing this wager is to demonstrate the conviction I have to my viewpoint on gold. In order to ease the pain of the latecomers to this normal to gold market action, I am putting my money where my mouth is. In all honesty I actually believe $1650 is low for that date [Jan 2011]. Serious inquiries on this have been primarily from young derivative dealers, which I was expecting. By Monday I expect the wager contract to be finalized with a party that has offered to take me up on this bet. Details will be posted once the process is complete. I believe this is a sucker bet. I am not the sucker. Respectfully yours, Jim >>

roadrunner · August 16, 2008 1:12AM

Amazing that one cent and fc who don't even read the man, can comment so completely on him. He's already posted on what the next steps are, go read it....it's free. It's still "IT" too.

1. His website is free. He doesn't charge for his time or advice. If you do your homework as he requests, he'll respond to you for free. If you're a lazy sob who merely speculates on other people's work, don't expect much.

2. He has been pumping out the missives at the same rate. Just read them instead of guessing on them. Nothing in the financial house has changed except that conditions are worse this month than last month. But Joe Six Pack only sees lowering gas prices, a "stronger" dollar, and some recovery in stock prices. Hence all is well, the banks as well as Fannie and Freddie are fixed and off we go.........

3. Yeah, he is still predicting $1650 gold by January 2011 as he did a year ago. That's not 10 years away or even the next bull cycle...it's the expected peak of the politicial and commodity stresses of the current one. If you want in on that easy Million dollar bet I'm sure JS would oblige. Maybe one cent and fc can combine forces to come up with the scratch. Easy money is easy money right? What's wrong with doubling your money in 2-1/2 years??? Let me know when you have firmed up the wager.

roadrunner

storm888 · August 16, 2008 2:52AM

RR notes that JS' position is........

"...that nothing has changed for the better in the past 2 weeks except that things have gotten worse in financial markets. In that light, the dollar rally and commodities pull-back is indeed odd. "

////////////////////////////////

JS is a VERY smart guy and he understands the MOST sophisticated and complex economic concepts.

Like all zealous metals-bulls, he often incorrectly connects the dots.

His If/Then strings are often faulty and can only prove themselves when chance/time/speculation
coincide perfectly.

His pronouncements that "things are worse today than they were last month" are TOTALLY correct.
But, his findings are elementary, AND WORSE academic. He wants me to trade based on the fundamental
FACT that the paper-money has failed; and, the FALACY that the paper will soon be "revealed as worthless."

He refuses to accept that "THEY" can keep the kite in the air indefinitely. THEY can, and WILL.

...........................

The helicopter money is being rained on banks with LOTS of strings. The instructions are to "liquidate or
secure bad positions, and do NOT make any new bad positions." Such provisions guarantee that the
peasants - MOST of the US population - are to be cut-off from easy access to CASH; and, that MANY
hedge-funds and out-of-favor "financial institutions" are NOT to be further funded.

The "money supply" is not relevant to PM-prices unless and until that CASH reaches the bottom-tier
of those who would spend/squander it. Ben is determined that poor folks are NOT going to repeat
their recent past performances. Small and medium-sized businesses are STARVED for CASH.
Almost NOBODY can get their hands on easy/cheap money. The cash is out there, but if we cannot
get it and squander it, there is little "inflationary" pressure created. Commodities and other value
storehouses must be dumped, DEFLATION ensues, and the little wealth that the peasants were
"given a chance to own" - mostly via their shacks - is transfered back to their financiers.

I well understand that only "government" can create "inflation." I understand the difference between
"price-inflation" and "monetary inflation." JS does too, but he sells his position as though the
relationship between the two concepts is non-existent. Yes, there is TOO much money being printed,
and NO it is not going to stop deflationary forces from having their way with US.

Some areas of America are in a "depression." Some are doing OK+. PMs cannot prosper in a straight
to the moon fashion when the value of "useful stuff" is being pressed to the floor. Until we again
see the po' folks spending beyond their means, the case for a sustainable bull in PMs remains weak,
and the trend can ONLY be backwardation.

......................................

In the 1940s, my grandfather told my father that the money would fail. In the 1960s, my father told me that the
money would fail. In the 1980s, I told my kids the money would fail. The grocery store didn't get the message,
because the cost of the goods I bought this morning was less than it was for the same "commodities"
last month. I used CASH money to pay for my groceries, just like my great-grandchildren will MANY years
from now.

The PMs are great for storing "X-value," and for trading at a profit. They are NOT now and NEVER will
be "money" in a "standing USA." The government is in the money business, will allow no competition,
and will ALWAYS use printing presses to create its product. The chances that they will print themselves
out of business are near ZERO.

..............

Any commodity that has to be proselytized into propsertity is probably not worth all that much.

57loaded · August 16, 2008 3:03AM

i do think Sincliar has underestimated the increased manipulation factors to PM.

and i still can't wrap myself around the USD index vs Euro (.52 vs $2) sincliar prediction for gold to trade at $1650. if gold is going anywhere it will need to break this pattern. it's been seen that the Euro can be manipulated as well.

when will all the ammo run out from the central banks? i think that is the $64 million dollar question....or maybe the trillion or two or three question....

roadrunner · August 16, 2008 3:22AM

In the 1940s, my grandfather told my father that the money would fail. In the 1960s, my father told me that the money would fail. In the 1980s, I told my kids the money would fail. The grocery store didn't get the message, because the cost of the goods I bought this morning was less than it was for the same "commodities" last month. I used CASH money to pay for my groceries, just like my great-grandchildren will MANY years from now.

In the 1940's your grandfather was still reeling from the effects of the FED, gold confiscation, and New Deal in the 1920's through 1930's. The FED and FDR almost did kill the economy. In the ensuing years we went full fiat and created a real mess in the 1970's that required 20% interest rates to tame. Not satisfied with that, we have increased the money supply some 13X since and removed nearly all sound financial controls on the economy...not to mention a $ Quadrillion in derivatives to contend with, something that never existed to any extent in any previous down turns.

The government is in the money business, will allow no competition, and will ALWAYS use printing presses to create its product. The chances that they will print themselves out of business are near ZERO.

Did you say "mon(k)ey business"?

An interesting proposition considering ALL nations in the past who printed money to this extreme, ultimately failed. But this time it's different? The nation was founded on financial principles directly opposed to what we currently have. The fiat experiment will end badly. The only question is when and how badly. One glaring difference from the 1940's to 1990's is that now we have most or all of the really large banks, brokers, corporations, and GES's are technically insolvent, if not bankrupt. And the recovery from this what? Lie to the people and shift the costs on to them and their children?

JS has stated anything but the dollar going to worthlessness. In fact he expects "only" another 30-35% downward adjustment from here. This is anything but a prediction of failure. But that adjustment will send commodities to a higher level, including gold. The unraveling of the derivatives mess and downward spiral in business revenues has to be played and paid out. There is a huge cost to this. This is simply what JS is saying...not a destruction of the US dollar. In fact he predicts a re-anchoring of the dollar to gold in such a way as to let the dollar float in value while allowing the US to keep a fixed amount of gold on record. Maybe if more people read things before taking the "assumed" anti-gold bug stance they might report the facts a bit better. This "is it" per Sinclair is a call to protect oneselves and their assets and get them into your hands, not your banker, broker, CFP, lawyer, best friend, etc. Things have gone far enough where the more intermediaries between you and your financial assets, the better the odds of not keeping it all. Yeah, this is "it."

roadrunner

storm888 · August 16, 2008 5:28AM

"...JS has stated anything but the dollar going to worthlessness. In fact he expects "only" another 30-35% downward adjustment from here. This is anything but a prediction of failure. But that adjustment will send commodities to a higher level, including gold. The unraveling of the derivatives mess and downward spiral in business revenues has to be played and paid out. There is a huge cost to this. This is simply what JS is saying...not a destruction of the US dollar. In fact he predicts a re-anchoring of the dollar to gold in such a way as to let the dollar float in value while allowing the US to keep a fixed amount of gold on record. Maybe if more people read things before taking the "assumed" anti-gold bug stance they might report the facts a bit better. This "is it" per Sinclair is a call to protect oneselves and their assets and get them into your hands, not your banker, broker, CFP, lawyer, best friend, etc. Things have gone far enough where the more intermediaries between you and your financial assets, the better the odds of not keeping it all. Yeah, this is "it."."

///////////////////////////

JS is almost always a "constructive solution" kind of guy. And, I am
not bashing him.

ONLY saying that the government is NOT going to implement any
JS-Approved solutions, the government is not going to crash
and burn, and the paper money is not going to be "exposed"
as NG.

They can deflate themselves out of the immediate mess much easier than
they can inflate out of it. It is ALREADY underway.

roadrunner · August 16, 2008 8:38AM

If the FED is striving for deflation they are doing a terrible job. Most other larger nations are seeing advance inflation effects as well, not deflation. Deflation will eventually result once the inflationary cycle runs its course, but not before. Some assets will decrease in value as they did in the 70's...and others will increase in value as people try to shelter their remaining wealth.

The FED has spent 95 years promoting inflation. It's hard for a giraffe to change its spots this late in the game. I don't see how they can possibly deflate their way out of hundred's of trillions in derivatives, $75 Trillion in welfare, SS, and medicare entitlements, and a national debt of $9 Trillion. These things are best "disposed" of through inflationary effects and dollar debasement.

roadrunner

OneCent · September 10, 2008 12:43AM

I think Sinclair has now definitely gone into the bunker...

ttown · September 10, 2008 12:49AM

You can only streach a rubber band so far before it breaks. Everything is now on the line and we're out of options. You saw the warnings in early 2008 and in the next stage it will be far more dynamic IMO. If you bother reading the website maybe you'd know he's far from in the bunker.

ttown · September 10, 2008 12:58AM

It appears to me that Buffet sees the writing on the wall and is getting out while the getting is good. Now that's going into the bunker IMO.

Berkshire, in Blow to Banks, Reins In Its Deposit Insurer

jmski52 · September 10, 2008 1:46AM

You're confusing Jim Sinclair with Mogambo Guru, who regularly operates from his bunker.

At some point during this precipitous decline in the price of precious metals, you have to ask yourself "what has changed?"

Here are some of the Headlines that you don't see:

"GAO reports projected surpluses for Social Security; interest burden on national debt shrinking due to lowered government spending"

"Morgan Stanley pays back loans to taxpayers, rollovers no longer necessary"

"Major new oil field tapped in Saudi Arabia - Abdullah offers discounts to U.S. drivers in gratitude for U.S. protection."

"Iran dismantles centrifuges and allows U.N. inspectors full access - new president visits Jerusalem in peace gesture"

"Investment banks institute reparations to U.S. taxpayers for derivatives scams, trillions in repayments to help debt victims"

"Fannie May and Freddie Mac declared solvent, disbanded for good."

"Taxes lowered across 43 states due to careful management of taxpayer funds"

"North Korea orders farm equipment from John Deere, Pakistan cancels missile parts orders from North Korea."

"Russia withdraws from Georgia; offers reconciliation with the West"

Jcarney · September 10, 2008 2:51AM

<< 
i am also curious what his next email will be about. how will he explain
such a large drop. >>

That's an easy one. Manipulation. The Government. Big Evil Shorts. Take your pick.

fc · September 10, 2008 2:59AM

<< 

<< 
i am also curious what his next email will be about. how will he explain
such a large drop. >>

That's an easy one. Manipulation. The Government. Big Evil Shorts. Take your pick. >>

RR, i do not have to read his pathetic emails (paying for them, lol) to know he is bullish
about gold all the time.

i allow the believers here to post them so i can chuckle.

as for the post above he will choose one of those options each week until the price
settles... maybe all at once.

never mentioning that ALL commodities have been going down, from pork bellies to
corn to copper.

i am not sure how people can read this gold bug emails and keep a straight face.
but as PT Barnum knew, people want to be a sucker sometimes.

and in a year or five i am sure the gold bugs will crow, see, gold is back up to 900,
this is it! disciples rally around and crow!

roadrunner · September 10, 2008 6:33AM

You're confusing Jim Sinclair with Mogambo Guru, who regularly operates from his bunker ....Now that's funny.

Good catch.

These guys don't read the sites often enough or at all to even know what the various authors are stating. But they quote chapter and verse as if they read them.

fc, do yourself a favor and read before you write. Sinclair does not charge for a newsletter. He doesn't have the extra time to put one out being a CEO of a metals mining company and answering thousands of emails and phone calls from readers each year. Everything he publishes is basically in the public forum and is free. I for one am glad I started reading him in 2002. I've done far better with my silver and gold investments than I have on my stocks. Funny that we didn't see you patting him on the back over the past 6 years for all his right calls of $350 gold, $400 gold, $450 gold, $500 gold, $600 gold, $700 gold, $800 gold, $887 gold, $900 gold, and $1000 gold. My how some memories are so short.

Sinclair almost daily still says that $1650 gold will be hit by January 2011. The FED has changed the condition road to get there, but not the destination.

roadrunner

fc · September 10, 2008 7:41AM

<< You're confusing Jim Sinclair with Mogambo Guru, who regularly operates from his bunker ....Now that's funny.

Good catch.

These guys don't read the sites often enough or at all to even know what the various authors are stating. But they quote chapter and verse as if they read them.

fc, do yourself a favor and read before you write. Sinclair does not charge for a newsletter. He doesn't have the extra time to put one out being a CEO of a metals mining company and answering thousands of emails and phone calls from readers each year. Everything he publishes is basically in the public forum and is free. I for one am glad I started reading him in 2002. I've done far better with my silver and gold investments than I have on my stocks. Funny that we didn't see you patting him on the back over the past 6 years for all his right calls of $350 gold, $400 gold, $450 gold, $500 gold, $600 gold, $700 gold, $800 gold, $887 gold, $900 gold, and $1000 gold. My how some memories are so short.

Sinclair almost daily still says that $1650 gold will be hit by January 2011. The FED has changed the condition road to get there, but not the destination.

roadrunner >>

roadrunner, a monkey saw that gold was underpriced back then.
the trouble is that these hucksters say it constantly and you give
credit to them when it happens. sort of like people holding a sign
downtown saying "this is the end! repent!"... eventually they will
be right.. some day...

i started buying gold because i thought it was a good deal at 450ish.
i did not need a ceo of a gold mining company, lol obvious bias, to
convince me. i used my own critical thinking skills.

now days i see the real profit is flipping the metals by the ton. the only
sure way to make money in any market. since i do not own a B&M
where people just walk in with it i have to think of other ideas...
which i am working on slowly when i have time.

we agree to disagree. history is repeating itself with these gold bugs... it all seems so obvious. yes in a few years i can be shown
wrong... but the fact remains i had a plan and acted on it.. while so
many others got greedy and now just plan to sit and wait for the
next bull.

ok so i am wrong about sinclair not charging for his website/emails.
fine. i stand corrected. but he falls squarely in the category of a "gold
bug" and that cannot be disputed. he was caught with his pants down
short term and i am emjoying it.

OneCent · September 10, 2008 7:50AM

RR - doesn't the fact that he is the CEO of a metals mining company AND a perennial
gold bull bring into play that his agenda may be self-serving. Call me naive but
that seems to be a conflict of interest assuming the facts that you stated are true.

edit spelling:niaeve (doh)

fc · September 10, 2008 8:02AM

<< RR - doesn't the fact that he is the CEO of a metals mining company AND a perennial
gold bull bring into the play that his agenda may be self-serving. Call me niaeve but
that seems to be a conflict of interest assuming the facts that you stated are true.

edit spelling:niaeve (doh) >>

tis naive.

his position as a CEO of a gold mining company never bothers them.
go figure. to me it is like asking the wolf about security for your hen
house.

BBN · September 10, 2008 8:15AM

The only time I ever see gold heavily touted as the home run investment is on commercials of people selling gold bullion. They bring up that gold has outperformed stocks the last 5 years. No mention of history, just the last five years. Historically, silver and gold are around or just above pace of inflation.

roadrunner · September 13, 2008 10:59AM

You don't see ads on TV recommending stocks at this time either based on their 5 yr, 10 yr or even 30 yr performance. It continues to amaze me that people invest on a 30 year or 50 year time table, totally ignorant of what has been happening in front of their eyes for the past 5-7 years. In 2012, those same people will be bad-mouthing gold at $1500/ounce because it has a poor 30 year track record. It will matter little to them that it increased over 6X in the past 10 years....or tripled in the last 4 years.

RR - doesn't the fact that he is the CEO of a metals mining company AND a perennial gold bull bring into play that his agenda may be self-serving. Call me naive but that seems to be a conflict of interest assuming the facts that you stated are true.

JS wasn't recommending squat in gold in the 1980-2000 era. There must have been a reason for that old gold bull not to keep yanking gold's chain like Ruff and others who just never leave. In fact Sinclair didn't release his full-fledged gold bull market call until closer to $400/oz when all of his economic pillars were soundly negative.

I would guess that fc, One Cent and Second Republic would prefer that we get our gold recommendations from the USTreasury or FED chiefs who like all Wall Streeters are totally unbiased wrt to gold. In a perfect world we should get our gold advice from stock bulls and our stock advice from perma-gold bears (lol). Sure enough, I'm going to start getting my gold advice from Dave Ramsey, one of the worst stock callers of the past 4 years. Maybe he'll be just as wrong about gold.

roadrunner

secondrepublic · September 13, 2008 12:50PM

<< I would guess that fc, One Cent and Second Republic would prefer that we get our gold recommendations from the USTreasury or FED chiefs who like all Wall Streeters are totally unbiased wrt to gold. In a perfect world we should get our gold advice from stock bulls and our stock advice from perma-gold bears (lol). >>

Roadrunner, I'm not a perma-bear by any stretch of the imagination. I have a strong interest in PMs, but NOT AT THESE PRICES!

Back when gold was cheap around 1999-2000 I distinctly remember urging people, including my future father in law, to buy some rather than buying stocks which was all the craze back then. Personally, I didn't have the money back then to invest, but that was my recommendation to him. (He didn't take it.) Watching the market, I see that over these last seven, eight years gold literally quadrupled in price from 250 to 1000 dollars (earlier this year). That's just a massive jump. What's it based on?

People's incomes haven't remotely increased anywhere near that much, neither has the prices of almost anything you can name (excluding a few other commodities). I don't see the mass-inflation story holding true at this time period. Wealth and money is being destroyed left and right in our economy - that's not inflationary.

Here's where we probably agree -- I think we will see inflation return and return big time in the long-term future. But NOT in the short-term future. I'm looking at real inflation more in the 10-15 year timeframe when the government really needs to start inflating us out of our social security and other fiscal problems.

In the nearer term of 0 to 5 years I see actually a greater likelihood of deflation, with prices falling. It started with homes and it's spreading. You can buy a car for manufacturer's cost right now (GM employee discount for everyone). Go to any department or clothing store, everything's on sale. Even the local grocery store here had some terrific deals recently, better than I can remember seeing in a long time.

So I see a decline continuing in gold and silver and oil. These have been my predictions for a year. I predicted declines in commodities and PMs last December on the "big thread" before oil and gold made their big moves up earlier this year.

I think there will be a time to buy PMs but it's not right now. We're in the early stages of what will probably be a several year bear market in PMs. I will be comfortable buying gold at $500 if and when it gets to that point and silver in the $6 to $7 range. Right now in my mind the PMs are still overpriced.

roadrunner · September 13, 2008 10:28PM

I see that over these last seven, eight years gold literally quadrupled in price from 250 to 1000 dollars (earlier this year). That's just a massive jump. What's it based on? People's incomes haven't remotely increased anywhere near that much, neither has the prices of almost anything you can name (excluding a few other commodities). I don't see the mass-inflation story holding true at this time period. Wealth and money is being destroyed left and right in our economy - that's not inflationary.

The economy has had it's money supply increase 13X since 1982 but this never showed up increased prices until the last couple of years.
That's a massive increase that cannot be explained by population growth, production, or working wages. One could say that the monetary inflation we exported overseas finally started coming home (price inflationary). In a similar fashion all those junk derivatives we spread overseas over the past 10 years are also coming slowly home to roost as well. The fact that wages don't keep up with asset inflation has been the case since the early 1970's. Credit that to the removal of the gold standard and the fact that Wall Street wants it all to themselves. Right now they have all the key failures to themselves with Lehman, Walmu, Merrill, AIG all racing to see who will be the first to add their names to that of Bear Stearns (no slight to our own "Bear"). I vote for Lehman by Monday.

I believe that a round of massive price inflation will precede any significant deflation that is coming. The amount of money to be covered by the Credit Default Swap failures ($62 TRILL available) and $500 TRILL in otc derivatives will require massive injections of liquidity to keep the economy afloat. Forget the 1-2% failure rates spouted by bank sources. A 10-20% failure rate seems more realistic. Nations like China and Japan will have to paid off with hundreds of billions of our dollars just for their F&F bets. We're not going to have to wait 10-15 years (Soc Sec or medicare entitlent mess) to trigger additional massive doses of liquidity. Heck, we just took on another $5 TRILL in Fannie and Freddie debt this past week. How many TRILLIONs in dollars will be needed for payouts to keep that debt afloat over the next several years? Will these payouts even show up as part of the money supply or will banker accounting tricks keep it all neatly hidden? The only real option the FED has is to match up counter-party risks as each of these big banks fail. At least in that regard a significant part of the damage can remain hidden off the balance sheet as banks merge. Does that lead us to one single large bank standing in the end? JP Morgan?

Right now we're in deflationary mode for durable goods like homes, cars, computers, appliances, heavy equipment, clothing, etc. We will see inflation for much of the time (with corrections) for asset classes like precious metals and stones, art, antiques, collectables, agri-products, fuel, etc (ie things that have historically increased in value consistently over the past 60 years). No doubt we're in a lull now while the USD makes a final "fakeout top" prior to the election and to give the banks additional time to try and rework their balance sheets (ie find sucker soverign nations to take on some of their debt at any cost).

I see gold's low being in the $725-$750 range and it could have already happened. This would be consistent with the medium term trend line of the past 3-4 years. Gold will recover within 6 months imo. The longest gold has been kept down during this latest bull run is 15 months (April 06 to August 07). These more severe down cycles will only shorten, not widen. A several year downturn in gold would allow a run in the USD to well over 100 which seems ludicrous in light of how we are bailing out the banksters of the world at every turn.

I too want to invest in $500 gold and $6 silver but don't intend to wait until post - $1500 gold to get it. Now back to reading my Dave Ramsey article on a resurgence to a 300 USD index and 36,000 Dow............

roadrunner

secondrepublic · September 14, 2008 1:38AM

<< 

The economy has had it's money supply increase 13X since 1982 but this never showed up increased prices until the last couple of years. >>

What is the basis for the figure? I've seen this number tossed around a lot but the figures I've seen suggest the increase is more like 5X since 1982. Link.

Has Sinclair Gone Into the Bunker?

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