1909VDB & OTHER MPL PRICES ARE UP AGAIN

Steve

As a result of auction and other activity at the Baltimore ANA convention, PCGS has again raised prices on MPL's. I would particularly like to hear the opinions of other MPL collectors as regards to the new pricing on the 1909VDB MPL. The increases shown for the 64's, 65's and 66's are deserved IMHO. What I wonder is whether or not PCGS should also consider raising prices for the lower grades (PR60 thru PR63). Right now, according to the price guide you could get a PR62 for $5,500 or a PR63 for under $9,000. Yet the BN version of the PR64 would sell for at least $30,000. Apparently none of the lower grade 09VDB's have sold at auction recently so PCGS may not have a good track record to base a change on, but given the known scarcity of this issue, and the continuing increase in prices for higher graded examples, it seems to me that the PR 63's today would bring $15k to $25k and even the PR61 and PR62 would challenge the $5k to $10k level. I continue to believe there are collectors out there who will pay more than "book" to get a real 09VDB in any grade for their collection.

What's your opinion? FYI, my PR61 is NOT for sale. I'm just interested in what others think about this. Thanks. Steve

lasvegasteddy

hey steve,

the 09 vdb matty past the 10k mark long ago as if registry doesn't have it's share of that support but..,
now spectulators/investors most likely have it in their sights too

legend sits on one but nowhere have i heard they have a complete set....that brings a lil support to what i believe

i just secured a deal on my 12' for my set before those price spikes happened but i'm in good shape as it's with a class person but i do dread these spikes knowing i've still the big hurdle of a 16'

i still enjoy the fact that "genuine" 09 vdb's might be made for us to complete our reg sets with but even those might find strong $$$

lasvegasteddy

onething is for sure...when n if your pr61 hits the blocks....jaws will drop on how strong this coin is in all grades

curly

A rising tide lifts all boats, brothers. With an approximate total of only 150 submissions (who knows what the actual population is), the prices will contimue to go up across the board.

ambro51

No doubt as we speak there are people in China working hard creating counterfeits complete with the die markers.

WaterSport

Steve, I just look at the lower grade values and DOUBLE them. In fact, that is what we have been doing for most of the MPL values for the past few years as the Guide has never really been able to match the market. With this last round of increases, my set is now worth double of what I paid for it three years ago. When I was buying, it was always 25% -50% more than the guide had the coin listed for.

WS

HdHunter

Steve:
While I never saw the coin, a very reputable dealer approached me at the Baltimore show and told me about an 09 VDB PR63RD that might be available. He described it as a bit of a "dog, with some type of mark on the obverse and not clean surfaces", and told me it could likely be had for between $20,000 - 25,000. I told him I wasn't interested, but it is interesting to know that even at that grade and quality, the prices seem to hold. I probably should have at least looked at it!
Jonathan

Steve

<< <i>Steve:
While I never saw the coin, a very reputable dealer approached me at the Baltimore show and told me about an 09 VDB PR63RD that might be available. He described it as a bit of a "dog, with some type of mark on the obverse and not clean surfaces", and told me it could likely be had for between $20,000 - 25,000. I told him I wasn't interested, but it is interesting to know that even at that grade and quality, the prices seem to hold. I probably should have at least looked at it!
Jonathan >>



Jonathan,
Andy mentioned that PR63RD coin to me in a recent email. He really wants to get it. He felt the problems were not that bad for the grade and apparently it was worth the price he quoted you. It lends support to the probability that the group of lower graded coins of this variety would have the same kind of percentage gains that we have seen on all the PR64 and above coins in the past few years.

Bob,
Your work at monitoring MPL buys and sells over the past few years gives great credience to your comment about doubling the PCGS price guide on those lower graded items.

Thanks for your input.
Steve

2keele

My 09 VDB PR63 RD might be a "bit of a dog". However when I pulled it out and showed it to Stewart Blay, he said "WOW"
2keele

DMWJR

Steve, many prices are still depressed and it seems that the only criteria used is auction price. If a VDB in 66RB is $65,000, how then could a full red 66 be only $75,000?

renomedphys

I could be wrong, but it may just be that coins like that sell for what they are actually worth. There are a couple of factors at play here that will continue to baffle those of you who feel compelled to analyze every detail of the "guide" in relationship to the coins that it represents.

First, looking at the price guide is pretty meaningless when the following conditions are met:
a) pops are low and demand is high
b) see above

Second, mith MPLs in particular, the actual color designation plays less of a price role than with any other type of copper. A high quality BN will often fetch more than an equally graded so-so RD. This is simply not true with business strikes, and part of what attracted me to MPLs in the first place.

Third, the $75K value of a PR66RD VDB is likely based loosely on the Feb 08 sale of the problematic PR66RD which went for $69K. The same coin would likely fetch a similar amount today, but that could not be said for other similarly graded Proof VDBs.

Fourth, it is simply difficult to find a lot of bidders with that kind of cash lying around. To buy a coin like that, you either have to want/need the coin and be able to afford it, have a buyer lined up, or be able to sit on it with the cash out of pocket for long enough to find a buyer. Yes, I know there are lots of you who recognize the VALUE in such a coin, myself included, but if somebody showed up at my front door tomorrow with one in hand for $50K, I would probably have to pass. (And live with regret for the rest of my life!)

So it all goes back to actual value. There are PR66's, and then there are PR66's. The value of the latter can often be triple that of the former, and with no other type coin is that so evident as with an MPL!

-Matt

Steve

<< <i>

So it all goes back to actual value. There are PR66's, and then there are PR66's. The value of the latter can often be triple that of the former, and with no other type coin is that so evident as with an MPL!

-Matt >>



Matt,


But, in the end, I think VALUE is in the mindset of each of us depending on our own particular financial circumstances. If we take it as a given that we all agree any MPL or any 1909VDB MPL has value to us because of its perceived beauty and/or its rarity (limited availability) then the cost (ie) value to each of us is dependent upon our own financial circumstances. We each seek the best example for what we can afford. If we can afford to spend $50,000 today on a 1909VDB MPL we will be more selective in what condition we will accept. If we have only $5,000 that we can afford to spend today on such an example, I am of the opinion that we would probably accept any genuine example regardless of how it may look. Similarly, if we can afford to spend $10,000 today on one of the other MPL's we will be more selective in what condition we will accept than if we can afford to spend only $200 today for one of the other MPL's.
Steve