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Boopotts
Posts: 6,784 ✭✭
in Sports Talk
Is Nate Robertson the worst starting pitcher in MLB? I was discussing this with some of the nerds in the math lab today, but none of us know enough about the the starting staffs on other MLB teams to be able to answer the question with confidence. If you have any insights on this I would indeed be grateful.
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<< <i>Is Nate Robertson the worst starting pitcher in MLB? I was discussing this with some of the nerds in the math lab today, but none of us know enough about the the starting staffs on other MLB teams to be able to answer the question with confidence. If you have any insights on this I would indeed be grateful. >>
He's one of the them, but "worst" is always at least somewhat subjective. If by "starting pitcher" you mean someone who only starts, and has started more than 10 games then I think the worst is Carlos Silva (4-12, 5.95) on Seattle, but Robertson is just a whisker away.
Miguel Batista (also on Seattle) is worse, but he has also relieved several times. There have also been several worse starters at some point in the season who have been cut or gone on the DL; Jason Jennings here in Dallas went 0-5, rang up an ERA of 8.5 and allowed 8 homers all in about 27 innings before going on DL.
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<< <i>Is Nate Robertson the worst starting pitcher in MLB? I was discussing this with some of the nerds in the math lab today, but none of us know enough about the the starting staffs on other MLB teams to be able to answer the question with confidence. If you have any insights on this I would indeed be grateful. >>
He's one of the them, but "worst" is always at least somewhat subjective. If by "starting pitcher" you mean someone who only starts, and has started more than 10 games then I think the worst is Carlos Silva (4-12, 5.95) on Seattle, but Robertson is just a whisker away.
Miguel Batista (also on Seattle) is worse, but he has also relieved several times. There have also been several worse starters at some point in the season who have been cut or gone on the DL; Jason Jennings here in Dallas went 0-5, rang up an ERA of 8.5 and allowed 8 homers all in about 27 innings before going on DL. >>
Thank you, Dallas, for taking the time to answer. Another question: If you're evaluating a starting pitcher is it wise to restrict your analysis to their park-adjusted ERA, or are their other factors which should inform your judgment?
<< <i> Another question: If you're evaluating a starting pitcher is it wise to restrict your analysis to their park-adjusted ERA, or are their other factors which should inform your judgment? >>
I'm not a member of SABR , but have done tons of private research over the years , on methods of baseball comparisons. It is possible to compare not only yearly but cross-era pitchers, batters , and even team stats. The larger the sample ( team stats) the easier the application.
When comparing same year stats, a norm must be established. A seperate baseline for each team , would go something like this. If I was comparing a pitching stat , I'd first find the league average . I'd then take the league total , less my own teams stats( you don't pitch against your own team mates ). That number would then be divided by (teams-1), then the resulting number divided by the league average. Before a final result can be rendered, a park factor must be found in much the same way. The first number that we found would then be multiplied by the park factor.
In a nut shell , what this type of comparison does, is takes a pitcher and ask what his stats would be if he were pitching his games in a neutral park against an average batter. If he is good, his stats will better than league average. If he is not, well ohh.
As a general observation, very few pitchers or batters ever deviate very far above the standard deviation . The great ones do. If a player preforms very long below , they are normally replaced.
I have not done any juice era comparisons against non juice eras , although I know I could. With more and more research coming out , the tools one needs to do deeper research in long ago seasons is exciting, for those of us that do. To now be able to take a hard look at Bob Gibson's 1968 season or even Steve Blass's 1973 season , is cool. To have the tools and stats to work with, is great recreation.
A word of advise. Unless one had a burning desire to know, you may be better off not knowing. Some baseball fans have intense feelings about how well their dude played. Normally its not backed up by anything but perspective. In a way , this may be the way to go, as the moment is what we remember, not the actual stats. To try to show a Steve Garvey idolizer, that Steve was the Dr. Strangeglove of his time, bases on the stats, leads to a barrage of insults( never a barrage of facts ). To them we are simply urinating on their rose-covered memories.
Choose your battles wisely--Sonny
With hitters, OPS+ can be misleading - the example of Ozzie Smith getting an undeserved benefit was mentioned, and Fenway gives an enormous advantage to right handed hitters but the same factor gets applied to the lefties. ERA+, on the other hand, isn't very susceptible to bias - if you have a higher ERA+ than another pitcher, then you give up more runs than that pitcher. And not giving up runs is 100% of a pitcher's job description. Which is why we can say without fear of (reasonable) contradiction, that Bert Blyleven and Luis Tiant and Tommy John were better pitchers than Jack Morris. I'd need some serious convincing that Jack Morris was better than Rick Reuschel, Jerry Koosman, Milt Pappas or Virgil Trucks.