What level of population makes something scarce?

11235813

It used to be that for something to be considered scarce it needed to have a single-digit population. However these days, there are very few stars in any sport that still have single-digit populations. Most stars from the 50's and 60's are well into the double digits, with only certain rarely-submitted commons still having single-digit populations.

So how do you definte scarcity when nothing seems to truly be scarce any more?

nam812

For me, I base it on the total number submitted of that given year's issue. I've had cards that were a population of 1, but there were only 3 of that year's issue submitted. Then I've had cards that were a population of 22 but there were 2,763 of that year's issue submitted.

yankeeno7

Kinky.

Morgoth

To Nams point, I would first look at the average number of cards submitted per card in the set. And then look at the population and see how it's distributed. Normally, the first cards submitted are usually of higher quality and then over time more and more lower grade cards come in and the population gets less scewed to the right.

If the card you are looking at has less submissions than what is normal for the set and the set itself is scewed heavily to the right there is a good chance the card is just under submitted and more high grade cards are either waiting to come in or sitting out there raw due to the fact it isn't worth the cost sending them in.

For mature sets like say 33 Goudey or 61 Topps where almost every card has 30 to 50 submissions you can really see which cards are not normally distributed compared against the entire sets normal distribution and therefore are truely harder to find in good condition. For young sets where normally only HOF and star cards are submitted you must assume that the only reason for a non stars card to be a low pop is indifference not rarity.

I usely compare the number of high end cards (grades 7 and above for older sets) to the total submitted and take a weighted average (correcting for the difference in sample size for each card) I use this weighted average to tell me which cards might be actual rarities and which ones just are reputation (61 Gibbon anyone?)

RipublicaninMass

It really depends, one card could be used in many sets, 55 topps Jonny podres,

55 set,
brooklyn dodgers set
topps 50's run
55 topps/55 bowman dodgers
48-57 decade of dodgers
he was also world series MVP

RonBurgundy

For vintage commons, it's hard to tell because of all the scam artists out there trimming low pop cards and succeeding in getting them into holders. I suppose that arguably, the current low pops are even more valuable than the market reflects because a portion of those that are holdered have been altered.



RB

clayshooter22

<< <i>So how do you definte scarcity when nothing seems to truly be scarce any more? >>



I consider something scarce relative to demand, when demand outpaces supply. If something has a pop of 20 but no one is selling, while at the same time there are many buyers looking for the item, then buyers would say that the item is scarce, or hard to find.

At the same time if a card is a pop 2 and one is on eBay 24-7. It is not scarce, relative to demand.

I may not have the Webster's definition but that's how I define it.

Mike

Wondo

I believe scarcity is determined by the supply / demand principal. I think a better term would be relative scarcity within an issue. For me, scarcity occurs when a buyer can't just place an order and write a check.

CDsNuts

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