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How Much Is A Mid-Season Traded For Pitcher Really Worth?

JackWESQJackWESQ Posts: 2,133 ✭✭✭
in Sports Talk
You hear it all the time in basketball. Really Good Player X goes down with injury. Homer sportsbroadcaster says, "well, that's 25 points and 10 rebounds you're losing." That may be true ASSUMING THE REPLACEMENT PLAYER AVERAGES ZERO POINTS AND ZERO REBOUNDS in injured player's absence; which you know is not going to be the case.

So for a traded for deadline pitcher, I don't think it's reasonable to believe that the pitcher will win more than ten (10) games following the trade. Obviously, the traded for pitcher will take the place of someone else's spot in the rotation; probably the fifth (and presumably worst) spot in the rotation. How many wins would that spot have been worth the remainder of the season? I think a good estimate would be anywhere from three (3) to six (6) wins.

So with that in mind, how much is a mid-season traded for pitcher really worth? An extra four (4) to seven (7) wins? Is that really worth losing the players your team lost? Well, obviously your team's GM think so. But do you? Of course, this goes entirely counter to my position that THERE IS NO SUBSTITUTE FOR WINNING NOW, e.g., you do whatever it takes to win now and forget about "mortgaging the future."

/s/ JackWESQ
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Comments

  • BarndogBarndog Posts: 20,492 ✭✭✭✭✭
    relief pitchers (Boston's fiasco trade last year was a glaring exception) are typically more valuable for mid-season trades
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  • bigfischebigfische Posts: 2,252 ✭✭
    they new pitcher will also more than likely go deeper into games than the replaced pitcher. That lessens the workload of the bullpen and that can help you win many more games as well.
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  • BobaFett72BobaFett72 Posts: 7,304
    well, if your the brewers, you go out and get the reigning cy young winner and hope he wins 10-12 games for you and gives you the edge you need to win either the division or W.C.
  • markj111markj111 Posts: 2,921 ✭✭✭
    Someone (Baseball Prospectus?) analyzed the Brewer's trade. They predicted that the trade would be worth 2-3 wins for the Brew crew, which could be critical. The methodology attempted to determine how many fewer runs they will give up ( including the ripple effect on the rest of the rotation).
  • Bosox1976Bosox1976 Posts: 8,551 ✭✭✭✭✭
    That sounds about right +3 wins (versus your 5th starter) and hopefully a stronger playoff rotation. Obviously, you have to think you'll be very close to trade prospects for 3 (or so) wins. Would do no good if down 10.
    Mike
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  • 1420sports1420sports Posts: 3,473 ✭✭✭
    Agreed.

    That said, I think the Indians made out much better than the Brewers, and I am not a fan of the Cubs move either.

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  • MorgothMorgoth Posts: 3,950 ✭✭✭
    These kinds of moves give alot more than just the 3 to 5 extra wins

    1. Might be able to move a starter back to the pen and thus have more quality arms in the pen plus you have another "long man" in case of blowouts to help save your other relievers.

    2. It might allow a team to sit starters and not have to pitch them as often. The Cubs are going to give Harden extra rest to help save his fragile body. I heard the Brewers say the same about Sheets. The Cubs actually do have enough pitching around Harden to let this happen. I think that is one reason the Cubs felt they could keep Harden healthier than the A's could.

    3. We have seen it time and again that you only need at max, 2 great starters when it comes to the playoffs to have a chance to win it all. The Cubs with Zambrano and Harden have a real shot. With Dempster (maybe only start him at home, look at his splits) they have a back up plan so they look real tough if they make it to the post season. Sheets and Sabbathia would be tough as well.

    4. Injury insurance for other starters. I think Sabatthia is a Ben Sheets insurance policy. If both stay healthy then I think they are at least a wildcard team but if Sheets gets hurt (he is as fragile as Harden) then at least they can compete with Sabbathia.

    5. If you can steal them then why not? I think Harden was stolen by the Cubs if he can remain healthy. Beane was gambling that Harden was going to break down soon and then he would of gotten zilch in return. If he stays healthy and leads the Cubs to the series it will be a infamous trade in baseball lore (the Pirates trade of Aramis Rameriez to the Cubs would have been infamous but they blew the NLCS series that year)
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  • markj111markj111 Posts: 2,921 ✭✭✭


    << <i>These kinds of moves give alot more than just the 3 to 5 extra wins


    Let's see, I can take your opinion, or that of the people who make a living doing this kind of analysis. It's close, but this time I will go with the pros. Seriously, five extra wins would be a huge number over half a season.
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