Another Economy vs. the Coin Market posting

renomedphys

So... at what point do you think the coin market will begin to slow down? Crazy as it sounds, with everything on the down and down, coins still rise... especially the rarities, be it condition or absolute. Thoughts?

Steve27

The coin market has already started to slow down.

roadrunner

Watch the price of gold and silver. They should lead top quality coins in a commodities bull. When they fail hard and fall sharply below long term trends, the gig for coins will not be far behind. In 1980 it took 3 months for coins to fail after gold topped out. It may not happen the same way, but it's one data point. Considering we only had one complete gold bull market since stepping up to 100% fiat, the data points are very few indeed.

roadrunner

dpoole

Following up on roadrunner's point, it seems to me that the big dollars are chasing the big coins now because there are so few places to hide dollars. The rest of the coin market seems to be shifting from foot to foot now, not making much of a move in any sustained or pervasive direction.

I think the coin market is like the rest of the economy: we're all waiting to see what happens to trade, oil and energy: if this is a transient phase until the dollar stabilizes and recovers, or whether we're entering altogether uncharted waters.

scottgardener

Definitely pretty volatile; but, we're going to get a lot of new people, or people like me who came back with renewed fervor. And, it's too interesting a subject to send too many collectors packing when the tide turns. That, and I think rare coins will hang onto their value. Take the Saint Gaudens common dates, uncirculated, for instance. Right now, they're a relative bargain. Sure, they're $1200 or so for an MS63, but if that's only $100 more than an XF or AU, then anyone who can afford the one will certainly be willing to go just a little bit more for the next step up. We're already seeing a migration of the "sweet spot" before prices start barreling skywards. When I went shopping for my own Saint two months ago at a coin show, the MS64s were about $1200 and 65s $1500; MS66es were closer to $2500 to $3000. Today, the MS64s skirt around $1500 and the 65s $2000. If gold drops, it's because the dollar is getting better, oil is going down, or the economy otherwise is improving, which means more people can afford to spend more on the higher grades. So, I think uncirculated old gold will hold its value even if the metal itself drops back to $600 an ounce. Lower grades might depreciate somewhat, but MS64 or better will probably hang in there just fine.

As for silver, the value of the metal is pretty minor where the good coins are. And, the recent market fluctuations are bringing more big spenders into the hobby, again driving up the demand for rarities and better grades. I'm personally placing my bets on any Morgan MS64 or better, and any uncirculated rare date, such as all the Carson Cities.

BECOKA

As the rich get richer the poor get poorer. As high end coins get stronger mid to low end coins drop or go stagnant.