So will Big Brown blow the Triple Crown? -- Update: Big Brown was a Big Dud!
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<< <i>If history repeats itself, he will finish 4th.
So then you're recommending to the "bridge jumpers" out there, not to put $100,000 to show on him? LOL
1) He gets hurt during the race.
2) The three in front of him are Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and Kyle Busch driving stock cars.
If Casino Drive wasn't in this race, Big Brown could make a pit stop on the backstretch for a sugar cube and an apple and still beat everyone else to the wire.
If any horse was to spoil it for him other than Casino Drive, I like Tale of Ekati.
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<< <i>If Casino Drive wasn't in this race, Big Brown could make a pit stop on the backstretch for a sugar cube and an apple and still beat everyone else to the wire. >>
Funny and true!
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Although, Lee's prediction is not altogether an unreasonable one. Tale of Ekati is a nice closer, and I could see Prado pushing CD near the lead so that BB does not get away.
RB
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<< <i>Prediction: Desormeaux hits the gas pedal with with 3/8 to go and we witness the most dominating performance in the Belmont since Secretariat. 2:25 and 3/4.
Although, Lee's prediction is not altogether an unreasonable one. Tale of Ekati is a nice closer, and I could see Prado pushing CD near the lead so that BB does not get away.
RB >>
Secretariat did exacly that with Sham - took the lead around the first turn, Sham came up and looked him in the eye, but then Secretariat said "see ya"
<< <i>Prediction: Big Brown goes for the lead in order to stay out of traffic, Casino Drive (because he doesn't want Brown to get in the clear) and at least one other horse that has no shot to win (trying to sabotage the Triple Crown bid) push him while he's on the lead, and Tale of Ekati storms down the strecth for a 1/2 length upset, with Casino Drive tiring down the strecth and out of the money. Tale of Ekati - Big Brown - Icabad Crane - Denis of Cork in that order. >>
That happened in a few other Belmonts when a Triple Crown was at stake. Won't happen here - Big Brown is a stone cold absolute mortal lock.
If Big Brown gets an easy lead he's home free. If Kent has to push him hard to get to the front he can be beat (but still might win anyway). I guess it all depends how they come out of the gate, but Dutrow made it clear he doesn't want to be caught in traffic, which can be hard coming out of the one-hole.
Personally, my strategy would not be to push for the lead, rather try to break in the middle of the pack and pop out to the outside and let him cruise like he did in the other two races. He clearly runs faster than every other horse, so why risk using him up early just to get clear, especially in such a long race? Shuffle him back, find a hole to pop out and let him do his thing. Of course, Dutrow knows more about this crap than I do so I'm probably wrong.
Make no mistake though, this race is infinitely tougher than the Preakness and should be really fun to watch. I'm not a daily horse racing fan, but I really get into it when the big races come up. Thank god for youtube because now I can do a little scouting weeks in advance.
Ron
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Above are the PP's if anybody wants 'em. I'm not sure if it'll open or not - it's a PDF file.
First time I looked at the PP's and it's "worse" than I thought for the other horses. The rest are running for second in this race.
I thought earlier in the week that Big Brown would pay $2.30 to win - Maybe, but it'll probably be $2.20
Wonder if Belmont Park is going to allow show betting in this race? If they do, could be some "bridge jumpers" betting to show beyond belief in this race - maybe the biggest horse racing bets of all time. A million dollar bet would net a cool $50,000 for about two and a half minutes of action. Of course only the memories of Barbaro and that filly in the Derby would stop them from making these bridge jumper type bets in this field.
Big Brown has "problems" but there's not a single thoroughbred racehorse out there that doesn't have problems, so I think the "big boys" are going to look to crush the show pool in this race (if show betting is allowed) and grab a quick and easy 5 cents on the dollar.
<< <i>steve, Sham was a little different because Secretariat owned him the two races before that. Plus, no other horses got up on him in the Belmont. If only Casino Drive pushes him then Brown cruises easily. If at least one more horse is up there just to cause trouble, Brown may use too much early. Ekati is the perfect horse to take it if Brown loses any steam. I'm sure you've seen it, but watch the Wood Memorial and see how he stalked down the consensus best 3y.o. at the time (War Pass).
If Big Brown gets an easy lead he's home free. If Kent has to push him hard to get to the front he can be beat (but still might win anyway). I guess it all depends how they come out of the gate, but Dutrow made it clear he doesn't want to be caught in traffic, which can be hard coming out of the one-hole.
Personally, my strategy would not be to push for the lead, rather try to break in the middle of the pack and pop out to the outside and let him cruise like he did in the other two races. He clearly runs faster than every other horse, so why risk using him up early just to get clear, especially in such a long race? Shuffle him back, find a hole to pop out and let him do his thing. Of course, Dutrow knows more about this crap than I do so I'm probably wrong.
Make no mistake though, this race is infinitely tougher than the Preakness and should be really fun to watch. I'm not a daily horse racing fan, but I really get into it when the big races come up. Thank god for youtube because now I can do a little scouting weeks in advance. >>
One interesting thing about Kent D. - He's never been a jockey who likes breaking from the one hole - always a tricky post in thoroughbred races.. In simulcasts, I've watched him ride many thousands of times, and I vaguely recall him ever going through a hole in the stretch - he likes to keep horses wide if possible - some people refer to that as "gutless" in a jockey, but he's still a very smart rider and he has a great judgement of pace. He can rate a horse as well as any jockey I've even seen.
If I'm a race horse owner, I don't want him on my $10,000 claimer - I want a jockey with guts who will do anything to win the race for me - go through a hole, whatever. But if I own a valuable horse such as this, I want Kent on him because I know he's not going to do anything "stupid" in the race such as putting the horse in a position where it might clip heels or something like that, getting the horse hurt. Can be frustrating for the bettor when Kent loses ground in a race and finishes second with the best horse, but at least from an owner standpoint the horse comes out of the race clean.
There's another viewpoint as well although it doesn't come up much. I was too young at the time but an older racetrack patron told me about a race with Dr. Faqer (a great racehorse) at the old Garden State Park in which the Doc was a huge favorite - couldn't lose. Well the "genius" jockey decided on the first turn to save some ground, and by doing that bumped a few horses - Doc won by I think it was by 6 easy lengths - didn't matter - he got disqualified and placed last if I'm remembering the story right - he definitely got disqualified from first.
So this horse is so good that Kent is a perfect fit here - Kent isn't going to worry about geting in trouble trying to save a few lengths of ground with a horse that is far better than the rest of the field. Kent will stay out of trouble early, swing the horse outside, probably take the lead around the far turn and then it's count the lengths of victory.
Will it be like the 31 lengths like Secretariat - No it definitely won't because for whatever reason and it baffles horse fans to this day, Ron Turcotte actually had Secretariat "ridden out" in that Belmont which means no whip but under urging. Of course Secretariat was by Bold Ruler and the thought at that time was that Bold Ruler offspring couldn't get the 1 1/2 miles so maybe that's what Turcotte was thinking when he kept urging Secretariat. Once Kent has this race won during the race, Big Brown will be under wraps, and won't be urged even a tiny bit, especially considering Big Brown's foot problems.
Note: that one horse's name was Dr. F-a-g-e-r...wouldn't let me post the first three letters of his name. LOL
That Secretariat Belmont will never be topped, 1) because no jockey would ever do that to his horse because he would be blackballed by all the trainers, and 2) No horse will ever be that dominant over the rest of the 3 year olds. I mean, Big Brown won the Preakness against allowance class horses fairly easily, but does he win by 31 lengths if he uses everything he's got?
<< <i>Good points about Kent D. I remember as a kid when we would go to Pimlico he was far and away the best jockey and got all of the good mounts in the big money races.
That Secretariat Belmont will never be topped, 1) because no jockey would ever do that to his horse because he would be blackballed by all the trainers, and 2) No horse will ever be that dominant over the rest of the 3 year olds. I mean, Big Brown won the Preakness against allowance class horses fairly easily, but does he win by 31 lengths if he uses everything he's got? >>
I agree with you about Secretariat's Belmont - will never be topped...not for me anyway. Quick story - Me and my high school good friend - both big horse racing fans - we were all set to go up to Belmont that day, and basically at the last minute decided to chase some women up the Pocono mountains. I've long forgotten the girl's name I was with, I think it was Jill (LOL) but we're drinking heavily all day and night, and were with the girls at night, and weren't listening to any media. So we're driving back home around 5:00pm Sunday and I turned on the car radio and first heard about Secretariat's magnificent race. Unfortunately, back then there was no constant replays of the race on TV and no internet, youtube, etc., so it was a long time before I finally got to actually see the race or hear the call by Chic Anderson. I would have definitely traded that weekend with the girl to see that great race live, but who knew beforehand it would be such a magnificent race? Oh well, fortunately I didn't make the same mistake again and me and my buddy both were at the Belmont when Seattle Slew won the Triple Crown and then Affirmed after that. That race with Affirmed and Alydar was one heckuva horse race as well.
It's a tough call whether or not Big Brown is "capable" of beating this field by 31 lengths. I don't think he is that good, but for sure it's clear this is one special racehorse. Again...he's a mortal lock here, can't lose, but in the fall in the Breeder's Cup we'll see how good he really is when he faces older horses in the Classic - until then, they'll be no comparisons to Secretariat from me. As good as this horse is, right now I just don't see this horse ever being as good as Secretariat was.
see you at Belmont !!!! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOT
<< <i>If Casino Drive wasn't in this race, Big Brown could make a pit stop on the backstretch for a sugar cube and an apple and still beat everyone else to the wire. >>
I guess we'll see the first Belmont pit stop because CASINO DRIVE HAS JUST BEEN SCRATCHED!
I agree with the Japanese trainer- why risk it when there's no way you're going to beat BB at less than 100%? You gotta play it safe when you're dealing with such a talented horse.
RB
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That's a great idea...it will surely be worth more than the payout!
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<< <i> how cool would it be to have those 3 tickets framed?
That's a great idea...it will surely be worth more than the payout! >>
Last time I looked a few years ago, the three $2 Secretariat win tickets were going for around $1,500. Probably more now.
So much fior the "public workout", SteveK!
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RB
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First an interesting quick fact which I don't know if this was publicized or not beforehand. It was stated by an announcer about 30 minutes before the race on TV that Dutrow had taken Big Brown off annabolic steroids about a week ago. Dutrow had stated that he wanted to show that Big Brown was capable of winning the Belmont without the steroids. Now why would Dutrow do that? A psychiatrist could better answer this about a guy who has had problems in the past with being down and out - but it's almost as though Dutrow didn't want to win the race. I know that sounds a little crazy, but it's even "crazier" in my opinion to take this horse off annabolic steroids at this time right before the Belmont.
Any two-bit psychiatrist can tell you that gambling addicts want to lose, and there actually is some truth in that as well as other types of personalities who want to lose and/or are afraid of success. Dutrow very may well fit this type of personality.
He hung tough but had none of the late race surge seen before. Pretty average run actually.
The jinx was on when Dutrow guaranteed a win on national TV 15 minutes before post time.
Dutrow had written a daily column every day in the New York Post in which he absolutely guaranteed that Big Brown would win and that in the words of SteveK, the outcome of his victory was a stone cold mortal lock.
He never gave any credit or acknowledgement to any other horse or trainer, and in fact, taunted the other horses for even daring to saddle up against Big Brown. For that reason alone, I was glad to see Big Brown go down, and to see Dutrow stand there with his sweat-drenched back to the cameras and refuse to speak about the race afterwars, after crowing all week, well, that was good to see, LOL!
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These TV announcers don't understand horse racing - all that bumping and jostling during the first turn took a lot out of that horse, especially an inexperienced horse such as that - might not bother a six year old $10,000 claimer, but this is still a young 3 year old horse.
And at Belmont Pack with its wide sweeping turns, losing ground there is horrendous to try to win a race. All Kent had to do was hug the rail, but instead he rushed this horse up, and strangled him when he couldn't get position, and then instead of relaxing the horse and keeping it on the rail to save ground, he swings the horse outside and loses all kinds of ground - that horse was dead tired on the far turn from all the shennanigans Desormeax put him through. A terrible, Terrible ride with a capital T from a jockey who should have known better that all of that was unneccesary.
<< <i>Looks like Dutrow was hiding more than we thought--what a surprise..
So much fior the "public workout", SteveK!
You're right man, and I thank gosh I don't gamble anymore because in my gambling days I would have bet my kidneys on this horse to place - I didn't calculate it precisely but the place pool was paying about $2.40
I'd be on dialysis right now. LOL
<< <i>I wouldn't say that the trainer wanted to lose, but he probably should not have taken the horse off the juice.
He hung tough but had none of the late race surge seen before. Pretty average run actually.
The jinx was on when Dutrow guaranteed a win on national TV 15 minutes before post time.
I think me calling it a "mortal lock" was actually a bigger kiss of death jinx. LOL
I thought about doing that too, as a place bet at 1-4 odds would have brought back about 40 cents on a twq-dollar bet as you said. But Big Brown is now the second 1-4 or 2-5 horse to go down in the last 3 years (although in Barbaro's case the result was far more tragic), and betting on horses is far riskier than betting on sports teams, IMO, though neither is a sure thing. The risk just isn't worth the reward in this case.
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<< <i>I also saw that Big Brown was not going to be given his monthly steroid shot because Dutrow said it was too close to the race. I also think this was also due in part to the fact that much had been made during the week about how Casino Drive did not take enhancements of any kind, and Dutrow may have taken issue with the coverage about that issue.
Dutrow had written a daily column every day in the New York Post in which he absolutely guaranteed that Big Brown would win and that in the words of SteveK, the outcome of his victory was a stone cold mortal lock.
He never gave any credit or acknowledgement to any other horse or trainer, and in fact, taunted the other horses for even daring to saddle up against Big Brown. For that reason alone, I was glad to see Big Brown go down, and to see Dutrow stand there with his sweat-drenched back to the cameras and refuse to speak about the race afterwars, after crowing all week, well, that was good to see, LOL! >>
That's interesting - I was wondering why the "big boys" weren't annihilating this horse in the show pool. Really was just average percentage type wagering in the show pool for a 1 - 5 shot.
Oh well, it'll at least 31 years before we possibly see another Triple Crown winner. And horse racing gets more bad press and further declines from public interest...and the railbird addicts at the track have already forgot about this race and are already studying the form for the nightime racetracks - I thank gosh I'm no longer one of them.
stevek
<< <i>So much for my ebay auctions for $2 win tickets on Big Brown to start at $9.99 with no reserve, LOL! >>
Perhaps you can auction them alongside the Mets 2007 playoff tickets?
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Looking back, it made sense that if anything crazy happens and BB doesn't run, then maybe Da'Tara runs away with it being the only speed horse. The cirumstances just completely worked in his favor and I absolutely hate missing good gambling opportunites like this.
steve- Sometimes horses don't run. Even the best. Luckily there was no injury, but Unless BB was kicked or injured in some other way, I don't think you can blame Kent for the loss. Maybe not the best ride, but neither was the Derby or the Preakness in terms of typical racing strategy. Logic dictates that you don't want to run the entire Derby 5 wide, but they knew they had the best horse by far so it didn't matter. I think this was just a matter of BB not having his stuff today for whatever reason- steroids, heat, travelling, 3 races in 5 weeks, etc......
"Desormeaux is known as a jockey who hates the rail. He could've let BB out and put him on the lead but instead he waited to maneuver him to the outside. By the time he did that he had taken a lot out of the horse and gotten him kicked in the process. "
And from SteveK:
"And at Belmont Pack with its wide sweeping turns, losing ground there is horrendous to try to win a race. All Kent had to do was hug the rail, but instead he rushed this horse up, and strangled him when he couldn't get position, and then instead of relaxing the horse and keeping it on the rail to save ground, he swings the horse outside and loses all kinds of ground - that horse was dead tired on the far turn from all the shennanigans Desormeax put him through. A terrible, Terrible ride with a capital T from a jockey who should have known better that all of that was unneccesary."
I agree completely, and it wouldn't surprise me if he pulled him up to make people think there was something wrong with him when in fact it was the jockey's stupidity that sealed his fate.
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<< <i>I'm absolutely sick that none of the other horses closed. I had 3 longshots in the pick 3, but I think everybody was pacing themself by what Big Brown did, and by the time everybody realized he didn't have it (start of the turn), Da'Tara was so far ahead it didn't matter.
Looking back, it made sense that if anything crazy happens and BB doesn't run, then maybe Da'Tara runs away with it being the only speed horse. The cirumstances just completely worked in his favor and I absolutely hate missing good gambling opportunites like this.
steve- Sometimes horses don't run. Even the best. Luckily there was no injury, but Unless BB was kicked or injured in some other way, I don't think you can blame Kent for the loss. Maybe not the best ride, but neither was the Derby or the Preakness in terms of typical racing strategy. Logic dictates that you don't want to run the entire Derby 5 wide, but they knew they had the best horse by far so it didn't matter. I think this was just a matter of BB not having his stuff today for whatever reason- steroids, heat, travelling, 3 races in 5 weeks, etc...... >>
I agree that all those other things could very well have contributed to the loss, but of course Kent's poor ride for sure didn't help. It's interesting that Kent before the race stated that he had no preplan, and was gonna take whatever the rest of his opponents gave him - obviously that was BS because his full intent was to try to swing the horse out wide right from the start. Ya gotta understand that doing that from the one post is very tricky and hard to do...and as Kent showed, he shouldn't have tried to do it, especially on a track that wasn't sloppy or muddy and there was no disadvantage to hugging the rail.
Ya know, the Dr. Faqer story I told here was close to happening again - Kent came a little bit close there to interferring with some other horses. No, he didn't interfere but placing this 1- 5 horse in a position like that when it was totally unnecessary, was just a very, Very foolish ride in my opinion.
I've seen heavy favorites get perfect trips before and still lose, but I still believe that poor ride contributed heavily to this loss. Especially since the news reports were that the horse was fine and okay after the race - no problems. Will the owners allow Desormeax ride this horse again? Probably, although it's not guaranteed.
<< <i>What's even more shocking, though, too, about Big Brown's loss is that by all accounts this was a fairly weak field. Certainly makes you appreciate Affirmed even more so, as Alydar was an exceptional horse, too, that year, and may have won the Triple Crown himself if it weren't for Affirmed, he was that good. >>
Affirmed may have had more heart than any racehorse I've ever seen. That horse just wouldn't let Alydar go by him. That's actually seen in nature as in wild horse herds, certain horses like to lead and don't want any horses in front of them. Alydar for sure was one of those types who just plain didn't like any horse passing him if he could at all help it.
that horse should have not have been racing...
the crowd was silent
Looking back, it made sense that if anything crazy happens and BB doesn't run, then maybe Da'Tara runs away with it being the only speed horse. The cirumstances just completely worked in his favor and I absolutely hate missing good gambling opportunites like this. >>>
I can't even begin to start talking about how many times this happened to me at the track - Everything is going right with the bet, the heavy favorite is backing up, and then "some other longshot" wins the race, instead of any of the longshots you have - frustrating beyond belief.
<< <i>just got back rom belmont..WOW WHAT A DISSAPONTMENT
that horse should have not have been racing...
the crowd was silent >>
Ya know one other fact that just hit me as I had watched it on TV - On a day such as that, very hot, it's sort of expected that a horse would be sweating a bit, a bit "lathered up" so to speak...Big Brown was bone dry...not a drop of sweat on him that I noticed. Admittedly at the time I didn't see that as a problem, but perhaps in hindsight it was.
<< <i>Won't happen here - Big Brown is a stone cold absolute mortal lock. >>
<< <i>
<< <i>Won't happen here - Big Brown is a stone cold absolute mortal lock. >>
ROFL!!
Here is the latest word on Big Brown's future plans: