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What cards/sets do you think will gain/lose value the best over the next 20 years?
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Posts: 610
Things that will hold or gain value:
-Topps test sets from 1964 to 1974 (many are very scarce in any condition and most are quite popular with collectors)
-1960's and 1970's food issues (Post, Bazooka, Kellogg's, etc.)
-Minor League cards of superstars
-1951-1975 baseball superstars in all grades
-1951-1972 football superstars and sets (very undervalued in my opinion)
-Early basketball superstars and sets (up to 1980-81), especially well-centered 1961 Fleer cards
-Early hockey superstars (up to 1979-80),
-Star cellos and racks and other one-of-a-kind items
Things that will lose value:
-All modern cards in all conditions (post-1975 for baseball, post-1972 for football, post 1980-81 for basketball, post 1979-80 for hockey)...nothing made after 1975 is truly scarce, even PSA 10's
-Graded high-grade vintage commons (as the Registry fad wears off over time, people will no longer be willing to pay astronomical prices for low population commons that are scarce only because many people don't bother to submit them)
Thoughts?
-Topps test sets from 1964 to 1974 (many are very scarce in any condition and most are quite popular with collectors)
-1960's and 1970's food issues (Post, Bazooka, Kellogg's, etc.)
-Minor League cards of superstars
-1951-1975 baseball superstars in all grades
-1951-1972 football superstars and sets (very undervalued in my opinion)
-Early basketball superstars and sets (up to 1980-81), especially well-centered 1961 Fleer cards
-Early hockey superstars (up to 1979-80),
-Star cellos and racks and other one-of-a-kind items
Things that will lose value:
-All modern cards in all conditions (post-1975 for baseball, post-1972 for football, post 1980-81 for basketball, post 1979-80 for hockey)...nothing made after 1975 is truly scarce, even PSA 10's
-Graded high-grade vintage commons (as the Registry fad wears off over time, people will no longer be willing to pay astronomical prices for low population commons that are scarce only because many people don't bother to submit them)
Thoughts?
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Comments
Vintage Commons will continue dip in value....too much out there.
Modern game used will decrease exept the "most exceptional".
On-card autos of hofers will rise, stickers will decrease.
Vintage rookies of hofers will continue to rise in higher grades, lower grades will decrease.
Of course there will be exceptions in all cases, based on supply vs demand.
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<< <i>
Things that will lose value:
-All modern cards in all conditions (post-1975 for baseball...nothing made after 1975 is truly scarce, even PSA 10's
Thoughts? >>
Grossly wrong here...there are plenty of "scarce" desired baseball after 1994, and will likely have a better upturn percentage wise over most vintage, in particular rare rookie autos of future hofers.
<< <i>Things that will hold or gain value:
-1951-1975 baseball superstars in all grades
>>
A bold statement.
<< <i>Grossly wrong here...there are plenty of "scarce" desired baseball after 1994, and will likely have a better upturn percentage wise over most vintage, in particular rare rookie autos of future hofers. >>
With all due respect, I disagree. Nothing made in the last 30 years is truly scarce. There are certainly items that have been made artificially scarce by manufacturers, but demand for those types of item is generally so low, and they were so overproduced as a whole, that I can't see them being worth much down the road. Most players these days have both multiple rookie cards and multiple autographed cards and trying to pick out future HOFers is a fools errand (Dwight Gooden and Jose Canseco anyone?). There are probably 60-80 active players with HOF potential right now, but history tells us that only 15-20 will ever make the Hall of Fame. Consider the fact that there are literally thousands of "1 of 1" type inserts from the past twenty years that you can't give away on Ebay or at shows. They stay hot the year they are issued when people are working on the set they are associated with, but lose all value after that when people move on to other sets.
<< <i>Things that will hold or gain value: -1951-1975 baseball superstars in all grades >>
<< <i>A bold statement. >>
Bold yes...but then if you don't make bold statements, there's nothing interesting to discuss! My feeling is that because causal collectors often start by collecing their favorite players, there will always be high demand for cards of players like Ted Williams, Musial, Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Clemente, Koufax, Banks, Yaz, Rose, Ryan, Seaver, Bench, etc. The level of demand will depend on the popularity of the player, of course, so Mays is more likely to hold value than Marichal, but I think generally speaking, there will always be buyers for these types of players, even in low grades, since many people collect lower grade vintage to keep costs down.
The 1980's is when the hobby started to take off and a lot left in the 1990's. I'm sure some of those collectors will come back and drive demand as they get older and more sentimental.
I think that 90% of items post-1973 will lose value.
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<< <i>I think mid-grade pre-war will hold or gain value.
I think that 90% of items post-1973 will lose value. >>
I'd say most post-1980 stuff. That's just me though.
And "prospecting" is a fools game. Anyone can do it, I've done it in the past. It's just like ANY gambling venture...you hear all about the "big scores" but they don't talk much about how many times they've lost. But to each their own.
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<< <i>For example, I just don't see Peyton Manning stuff as a whole dropping in value. Sure there are some mass produced cards of his, but I doubt his Contenders card (production of 200) will drop, even though some point that it's not a true "rookie card". >>
The problem is that there are so many Peyton Manning cards out there that why would anyone want to pay big bucks for any specific one? There are already 313 items in his Basic Set and 1050 items in his Master Set, and he's got another 5-10 years left as a player! Compare that to his dad, who has only 11 items in his Basic Set and 25 items in his Master Set, or to someone like Bart Starr, with 16 cards in his Basic Set and 29 in his Master Set. With so many cards of modern players being produced, there just simply isn't going to be enough demand for any specific card, no matter how few were produced, to support a very high price.
<< <i>
<< <i>For example, I just don't see Peyton Manning stuff as a whole dropping in value. Sure there are some mass produced cards of his, but I doubt his Contenders card (production of 200) will drop, even though some point that it's not a true "rookie card". >>
The problem is that there are so many Peyton Manning cards out there that why would anyone want to pay big bucks for any specific one? There are already 313 items in his Basic Set and 1050 items in his Master Set, and he's got another 5-10 years left as a player! Compare that to his dad, who has only 11 items in his Basic Set and 25 items in his Master Set, or to someone like Bart Starr, with 16 cards in his Basic Set and 29 in his Master Set. With so many cards of modern players being produced, there just simply isn't going to be enough demand for any specific card, no matter how few were produced, to support a very high price. >>
Another classic case of someone making completely irresponsible projections. You know as much about the future trends in card collecting as I do-- and I have absolutely no idea what will happen 15-20 years down the road. It could be that registered sets of HOF rookie cards become the next big thing, and there's a huge run on Manning SP RC's in 2017. Or, they could totally fizzle out. Nobody has any idea. Trying to predict future hobby trends is like trying to determine if it's going to rain four weeks from now when you go on your family camping trip.
Selling many things, cards included, and following trends; I would speculate that demand coupled with, more importantly, increased wealth of particular age based segments of the collecting community have driven much of the gains in the vintage market. Think about it, of the people who actually watched Mickey Mantle, Aaron, Mays, ect.; their incomes by and large have increased to the point where their disposable income is substantial and so they can and are paying more for the cards of the superstars they want. I believe this is the one and only reason for the recent serge in vintage.
I see a cooling period for all but ultra high grade and extremely low pop high grade commons from the 50's as the collectors age and their "collector dollars" disappear due to death/disability. To compliment this idea I would also assume that the cards these dead/disabled collectors once collected will be sold off for a fraction of value by their heirs (this happens all the time outside the world of cards).
I would consequently expect demand to increase for cards of 70's stars but because of the mass production of 80's cards I doubt all but the highest graded example will ever command decent premiums. I feel this is the logical extension of my core idea of increased disposable income from the “next” age based demographic as today’s 30-40 year olds acquire wealth and increase their disposable incomes over the next 20 years.
There will always be an investment or speculative market and so high grade vintage will always be in fashion but I would guess anything but the highest graded examples will cool off from today’s prices over the next 20 years.
Mike
Kirby Puckett Master Set
<< <i> Think about it, of the people who actually watched Mickey Mantle, Aaron, Mays, ect.; their incomes by and large have increased to the point where their disposable income is substantial and so they can and are paying more for the cards of the superstars they want. I believe this is the one and only reason for the recent serge in vintage.
I see a cooling period for all but ultra high grade and extremely low pop high grade commons from the 50's as the collectors age and their "collector dollars" disappear due to death/disability. To compliment this idea I would also assume that the cards these dead/disabled collectors once collected will be sold off for a fraction of value by their heirs (this happens all the time outside the world of cards).
Mike >>
I respect your opinion, but I disagree. If what you laid out is true, then how do you account for the recent jump in pre-war cards? No one buying these cards now was alive when Cy Young or Joe Jackson was playing ball.
IMHO, it all comes down to supply & demand. The demand for cards of "legends" will always be there, but unfortunately for those who stocked up on 1980 to date items, the supply will always be over whelming.
Steve
<< <i>
I respect your opinion, but I disagree. If what you laid out is true, then how do you account for the recent jump in pre-war cards? No one buying these cards now was alive when Cy Young or Joe Jackson was playing ball.
IMHO, it all comes down to supply & demand. The demand for cards of "legends" will always be there, but unfortunately for those who stocked up on 1980 to date items, the supply will always be over whelming. >>
Perhaps it can be attributed to the fact that the demand for baseball cards of 50's players has trickled down to prewar. I know my generation has almost NO interest in baseball cards, and I doubt prewar or 50's will hold as much value. Maybe today's players, a little, but I'm not sure.
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
Take Pujols rookie chrome auto for example. It has a "lifecycle" or a chart of it's market value. I am sure it has hit it's all time high, unless he beats hammerin' hanks HR record, or continues to pile up big numbers, etc... That said, after it bottom's out, it will likely to continue to rise in value, being a very desirable card. I am just using this card, as it is probably the most predictable, but there will be many great players whom will become legends, who have RARE rookies, after 1994. (other similar examples would be 94 sp die cut arod, 95 vladimir refractor, etc...) Nobody knows who today, you can only speculate, but i guarantee you those cards will be on top of most collectors lists. Perhaps not on a majority of this board, as many here on this board will only collect vintage, but those of you that put yourself in that category, may be a majority on this board, but definetely a minority in the global audience.
I see set collectors being a dying breed, and rookie collectors becoming alive once again, now that the manufacturers have made the decision to create limited print rookies. The 80s to 90s pretty much killed the desire to collect rookies, but moving forwards, rookies will become alive again. Any study will show that collecting rare rookies (esp autos) is what most entices "the modern collector/investor".
And as far as the statement in regards "whos to say which rookie is the most collectible", you just have to know your cards. First year bowman chrome rare autos will almost always be a good choice, and where those don't exist, you just have to do your homework. Just like who is to say which is worth more, a 1984 fleer clemens or 1985 topps roger clemens....you have to do your homework.
How many numbered 1/1 cards does Albert Pujols have? 200? 500? You think in 30 years that collectors will want to or even care to distinguish between the UD Black, Topps Chrome Green refractor, or Donruss Elite Platinum Pujols 1/1 card, or will they just lump everything in the same category like we now do with most of the mid-late 90s inserts from Fleer Ultra, Bowman's Best, Fleer Focus, etc........
No one knows for sure what the future will hold, but using history and human nature as indicators, you can guess with a reasonable amount of certainty what's going to happen with the last decade of cards 20-30 years from now, and it's not pretty.
http://sportsfansnews.com/author/andy-fischer/
Saying that all modern cards in all conditions will decrease in value is way off. Autographed cards of stars in high grades will go for big money all the time as well as rare inserts. For instance, I can't see that people will not want to buy a highly-graded SP die-cut ARod rookie or other rare insert rookie cards of stars. It is just not true that modern cards are not scarce enough. Some are, some aren't.
Yes, modern cards that aren't scarce will probably decrease in value because people nowadays save everything. I've heard a ton of stories of a kid's mother throwing away his card collection in the garbage because she couldn't take looking at them anymore. And into the garbage went '52 Topps cards, etc... Poeple save things these days so they're not going to be rare.
1951-1975 superstars in all grades is a very bold statement (to agree with a previous post) because it is such a wide range of years. It may be true, it may not, who knows.
Joe Knows Cards
My eBay Auctions
<< <i>
How many numbered 1/1 cards does Albert Pujols have? 200? 500? You think in 30 years that collectors will want to or even care to distinguish between the UD Black, Topps Chrome Green refractor, or Donruss Elite Platinum Pujols 1/1 card, or will they just lump everything in the same category like we now do with most of the mid-late 90s inserts from Fleer Ultra, Bowman's Best, Fleer Focus, etc........
>>
Why mention 1/1 cards? I am talking about key rookie cards, e.g. Pujols 2001 Bowman Chrome, Ichiro 2001 Ultimate, Vlad 1995 Refractor, AROD 1994 SP Die cut. Key Rookies of future hofers will remain desirable 20 years from today....no one is talking about rare insersts...i am talking key rookies. The only reason the 80s and 90s lost all of their appeal is because they were mass produced and there is no pride in ownership...just like there will be any pride in ownership of a 1975 yount in psa 7 or lower....there are just too many of them. The fact that the manufacturers are making rare rookies makes them more enticing. I am tickled to be an owner of a 1995 SP auto bgs 9 of vlad, but there would be little or no satisfaction in owning an ozzie smith rookie in anything less than a "9" grade.
Whatever, everyone is entitled to their opinion....you can collect your commons in high grade from the 70s, and i will collect the rare rookies of future stars, and see who does better in 20 years.
Plus, I don't know if you realize this, but modern RCs are "rare" inserts. They're all numbered, auto'd or jerseys, or a combination of the three.
<< <i>You're missing my main point- the fuel that drives the prices up are people who collect, and right now it's adults. There's no one to step in 20 years from now and keep the value of those cards so high. Who do you see buying cards of Peyton Manning, Albert Pujols and Chris Paul in 20 years? The same 55 year olds that are buying them now as 35 year olds? It's certainly not going to be 30 year olds because those kids could give a crap less about cards now.
>>
What makes you think the 15-30 year old collector/investors that are collecting now, won't step up their game when they are making more money. I would say the 15-30 year olds of today are far more educated in card collecting than most of the 40-60 year olds collecting today. They know better than to throw away their money on set collecting of commons, and to focus their attention on modern rare rookies and vintage high grade rookies of hofers.
I understand that you feel modern RCs will hold their value because the players are great and you like the cards, but who is going to buy them? Can the market really sustain 20 more years of $1500 RCs with one coming out every year or two in each sport? This means people who collect this era are going to have $80k collections across the board because they had to buy all the Pujols, Wright, Manning, Peterson, Dwight Howard, LeBron, Crosby, and Ovechkin RCs.
<< <i>You're missing my main point- the fuel that drives the prices up are people who collect, and right now it's adults. There's no one to step in 20 years from now and keep the value of those cards so high. Who do you see buying cards of Peyton Manning, Albert Pujols and Chris Paul in 20 years? The same 55 year olds that are buying them now as 35 year olds? It's certainly not going to be 30 year olds because those kids could give a crap less about cards now.
Plus, I don't know if you realize this, but modern RCs are "rare" inserts. They're all numbered, auto'd or jerseys, or a combination of the three. >>
If you ever question kids collecting habits, visit Beckett.com. It's teeny bopper town over there.
<< <i> There will be little to no interest in sets or building sets. >>
AMEN
What will remain strong for 20+ years:
HOF Rookies (both vintage and current with exeption of 80s-90s mass produced)
On-card autos of HOFers (especially classic sets, fan favorites, topps archives, heritage, A&G, UD ultimage, etc..)
Exceptional Hobby GU/autos
PREWAR
Curtis Granderson cards, on the other hand, will continue to gain value.
To look at something related, stamp collecting took a huge dive in the 70s and 80s when kids lost interest and now it's an almost non-existent hobby. In the 1900s-1960s, stamp collecting was mentioned along the same lines as card and coin collecting, and collectibles shows would feature dealers of all three.
Our kids would rather go to dave and busters than the ballpark.
Actually there will be an atomic war, and the economy of the US will fail, and there won't be enough food on the table to feed our kids.
As long as baseball is alive, card collecting will be alive and well.
I just think too many people invested too much in set building, and they lost their shorts, and are calling doomsday. The trick is to keep rotating your collection, keeping a happy medium of what you enjoy collecting and what remains popular.
<< <i>I know that by going on a sportscard collecting forum and voicing such a pessimistic prognostication is just short of inviting a lynch mob. My point is that times are changing faster than ever in this country. Electronic advances are dominating the interest of kids everywhere and the appeal of sportscards is not even close to keeping pace. So it is my own personal decision to be a casual collector for sentimental reasons and not to invest hard capital hoping for a substantial return in 20 to 30 years. Card collecting was originally designed to be fun and dream provoking--and I like to keep it at that level....... >>
I had no interest in baseball cards as a kid....i liked pinball. To suggest there won't be any interest in card collecting in the next generation is just kind of silly. BTW, i dont ever recommend in investing in card collecting in the hopes of a 20 year return. That's what CD's and mutual funds are for. I agree, it would be stupid to collect cards for 20 years out in the hopes of paying college tuition for your kids.
I do believe it would make sense, though, to try and collect what you feel would be both fun, and not a waste of money. I would suggest against set collecting of 60s to 70s (but could be wrong), and focus on hof and future hof rookies. It is also more satisfying to find the rare rookies at a good price, that have potential, than to collect players that you never saw play, never heard of their name, and that there are tens of thousands of them.
<< <i>
<< <i> There will be little to no interest in sets or building sets. >>
AMEN
What will remain strong for 20+ years:
HOF Rookies (both vintage and current with exeption of 80s-90s mass produced)
On-card autos of HOFers (especially classic sets, fan favorites, topps archives, heritage, A&G, UD ultimage, etc..)
Exceptional Hobby GU/autos
PREWAR >>
Im a young vintage set collector.
I wont be dropping a ton of coin on a modern rookie anytme soon. I just dont see the point, id rather spend 20-50 and just get a base chrome rookie if i want one of a certain player.
And i dont know anyone else my age that collects.
http://sportsfansnews.com/author/andy-fischer/
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i> There will be little to no interest in sets or building sets. >>
AMEN
What will remain strong for 20+ years:
HOF Rookies (both vintage and current with exeption of 80s-90s mass produced)
On-card autos of HOFers (especially classic sets, fan favorites, topps archives, heritage, A&G, UD ultimage, etc..)
Exceptional Hobby GU/autos
PREWAR >>
Im a young vintage set collector.
I wont be dropping a ton of coin on a modern rookie anytme soon. I just dont see the point, id rather spend 20-50 and just get a base chrome rookie if i want one of a certain player.
And i dont know anyone else my age that collects. >>
Try and find a more rare $20-$50 auto rookie card of a player you like....just a thought....
I just bought a bgs 9.5 of Kochman....may or may not pan out...but its an auto rookie in high grade for less than a hundred...an ungraded copy just sold for $30.
Enjoy the hobby, and dont worry about blowing your money, and you will be happy!
As far as not knowing anyone, try beckett.com....lots of young collectors there.
$70 (35 ungraded)
And that could very well be the case, but all cards would suffer and IMO vintage would suffer just as much if not more.
John
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
<< <i>nowhere in my reply did I state that there will be "no" interest in sportscard collecting in 20 or 30 years from now. I'm simply stating that card collecting with today's generation of kids is not as popular across the board as with past generations and that this will cause a "decrease" in demand for sportscards when this current generation of kids comes to fruition in the future. A "decrease" in demand is far different than "no" demand. >>
I dont know your age, but i am near 50, and will probably continue to collect for the next 20 years, and i suspect most people that are 40+ that currently collect will continue to collect until they are ready to retire, and maybe even then so. I also believe that there are tons of younger collectors (ever check ebay out)?, that will keep the business alive.
<< <i>I am in the same boat as Bigfische, I'm a young (20 y/o) vintage set collector. I also do not know anyone my age who collects at all seriously. I'm not sure who will be buying 50s and 60s cards in 30 years- I guess if Bigfische and I decide not to bid on the same auctions, maybe we will get everything for the opening bid!!
John >>
To be honest, i really feel that a much larger percentage of collectors of the younger generation are more into Autos, GU, and rookies. Check out topps and beckett message boards. Also check the trade boards. There is a lot of interest in card collecting, just not so many newbie set collectors. I believe it is kind of a dying breed. JMO. I think it is much more enticing and fulfilling to find more rare "cool" cards and rare rookies of the big names and the big prospects than set collecting of commons, especially if you enjoy the sport of baseball, rather than just card collecting.
here is a sample of what I like...i like it all, including vintage, autos, gu, rare rookies, etc....i find it fulfilling.
Note - there is a selection on vintage as well...
my collection