A CONTEST - how many ms69 state quarters are coming?
Gerry
Posts: 456 ✭
We are having a contest: Guess how many state quarters in ms69 there will be on January 31, 2003 (one year from now). Mitch will award prizes to the closest guess (which he will announce himself).
If you want to participate in this contest, all you have to do is send wondercoin your guess in a private message. No entry fee, and you don't have to buy a state quarter either!
The deadline for entries is February 14, 2002, after which Mitch will post the names of persons who entered and their guess. Sorry, PCGS employees, you are not allowed to enter (especially Rick). Mitch and Tad are not only eligible, but expected to participate – or we post a picture of a chicken.
The purpose of the contest is noble: to see what people really, really think about the possibility of more ms69 state quarters. It is not merely to give all the experts on the Board a chance to show how smart they are. Put your guess, so to speak, where your mouth is. And it will provide a date (next year) at which time board members can go back to reflect on their judgments as well as those of their friends. At that time some will beat their breast . Others will eat crow -- or instead blast PCGS for not agreeing with their judgment.
Good luck to all.
If you want to participate in this contest, all you have to do is send wondercoin your guess in a private message. No entry fee, and you don't have to buy a state quarter either!
The deadline for entries is February 14, 2002, after which Mitch will post the names of persons who entered and their guess. Sorry, PCGS employees, you are not allowed to enter (especially Rick). Mitch and Tad are not only eligible, but expected to participate – or we post a picture of a chicken.
The purpose of the contest is noble: to see what people really, really think about the possibility of more ms69 state quarters. It is not merely to give all the experts on the Board a chance to show how smart they are. Put your guess, so to speak, where your mouth is. And it will provide a date (next year) at which time board members can go back to reflect on their judgments as well as those of their friends. At that time some will beat their breast . Others will eat crow -- or instead blast PCGS for not agreeing with their judgment.
Good luck to all.
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Comments
peacockcoins
Braddick – my thread title confused things - let’s make the guess what the total number on the pop report will be on January 31, 2003 (including the current one), so your guess should be one (not zero) unless you think the NY-p ms69 will be regraded ms68! (Just joking Mitch and new owner.)
Also, I hope everyone looks at this as a way of finding out what the opinions of board members are - the prize should really be incidental.
Mitch - since you will be prevy to everyone’s guesses, it has been suggested that you could take advantage of the situation and make your guess after you saw all others (haha). Why don’t you private me your guesses now, and then I can vouch for you
peacockcoins
I’d like to make the question how many there will ever be, but even wondercoin will not be around to judge the results that long
braddick – the deadline for entries is February 14, 2002 (see posted message above) and remember the question is what the pop numbers will be on January 31, 2003.
Good luck everyone. I've already emailed Mitch my entry
The prize is growing! Looks like between $400-$500 in CW trends value to the winner!! Everyone should play. Nothing to risk and a chance at a nice prize!! "Even a broken clock is right twice a day"-guess and you might just win!!
As I mentioned, several "sponsors" of the contest have graciously donated prizes to the prize pool. The final prize pool will be announced shortly after the 2/14/02 deadline.
So, keep you PM's coming with your guesses (only one PM'ed guess per forum member and household).
We are sorry to announce that the deadline for contest entries has passed. Between those entries sent to wondercoin and to me, there were about 16 entries. Mitch has suggested that at this time everyone post a message to this thread giving their guesses and explaining how or why they developed them. We, of course, already have your guesses to insure that no one changes their mind.
Mitch has reported that several "sponsors" of the contest have graciously donated prizes to the prize pool. He will post a message describing the prize pool shortly.
OK, I’ll go first in reporting my guesses:
My guesses (previously emailed to wondercoin on January 30) are 5 state quarters and 2 Goodacre Dollars in ms69 on January 31, 2003.
How did I arrive at these guesses? First, I used a variety of statistical forecasting techniques, which yielded estimates from –2 to 413,345 for the state quarters. I am a statistician, but I felt that these results were not particularly meaningful. Dismayed, I turned to my 2-year old grandson and said “Lukas, how many state quarters do you think there will be my the end of next January?” He immediately held up one hand, fingers spread apart, which I took to mean 5. I then asked about Goodacre Dollars and he held up both hands, fingers together, which I took to mean 2. These seemed very reasonable in terms of what I see PCGS doing, so I adopted them as my guesses.
There was one, and one, at the time, and I figured there would be twice as many dollars as quarters.
Why? Strike and handling, I guess.
So not to get too sophisticated mathematically, I came up with, two and four more of each, respectively, totalling, three and five. Good luck to all.
My guess was 4 and 4 -- slightly higher than I would guess for normal submission rates, but now that both series have had that magic grade made I think there will many more people trying.
It's basically a wild guess, though. For one thing, the quality (or lack of quality) of the 2002 mint sets could impact the quarter pops one way or another. But more importantly, as I've said before, whether a coin gets the nod for an "ultimate" grade really has as much to do with PCGS policy as the coins themselves.
So what's up for grabs to the winner?
I love Ike dollars and all other dollar series !!!
I also love Major Circulation Strike Type Sets, clad Washingtons ('65 to '98) and key date coins !!!!!
If ignorance is bliss, shouldn't we have more happy people ??
The pop was -1- on Goodacre at the time of my guess. It is now -2-. I guessed -4- because the Goodacres have not received much attention this past year and many collectors may have a few tucked away in ICG holders with no intention of "crossing" the coins. I believe it is more likely that 2003 will be the year larger quantities of Goodacres are submitted to PCGS and the MS69 pop rises well above the -4- I guessed for this upcoming year. We'll see
<< <i>Guess how many state quarters in ms69 there will be on January 31, 2003 (one year from now). >>
Sounds like all state quarters Dates,does not matter.
my guess was 6 states and 3 whatever the back up was I dont even know what that coin is
My Merc Dimes
PCGS THE ONLY WAY TO GO
Ed
Russ, NCNE
What do I win!
Edited.