Making an MS-69
pmh1nic
Posts: 3,290 ✭✭✭✭✭
A side issue came up in the discussion of the sale of Wondercoin's MS-69 NY State Quarter and Supercoin's MS-69 Goodacre Sac. The issue is what goes into the making of an MS-69 coin.
Now I'm sure the MS-69 NY Quarter has got to be outstanding but when we're discussing one 69 with hundreds of 68's (in the case of State Quarters in general 450 68's) to accept the pop 1 status you're doing so based on the assumption that PCGS got it right all 450 times on the 68's and that not one of those coins stacks up with the one graded by them MS-69.
In that group of 68's there are probably a good number that just made the 68 grade. You'll probably find a good number of mid-range 68's that are outstanding coins with a great strike, outstanding luster, etc. You're also probably going to have a few coins that are absolutely brilliant, sharply struck and if they are legitimate 68's they won't have any distracting marks in a prime focal area. What held those half a dozen or more coins back from getting that magical MS-69 grade? Is PCGS that precise in drawing the line between 68 and 69 (given the subjective, changing nature of coin grading) that none of the hundreds of 68's really don't merit a 69? If you covered the labels and took the one 69 and put it into a group of the top 50 68's what percentage of the graders at PCGS or for that matter seasoned State Quarter specialist could consistently pick out the 69?
What do you think?
Now I'm sure the MS-69 NY Quarter has got to be outstanding but when we're discussing one 69 with hundreds of 68's (in the case of State Quarters in general 450 68's) to accept the pop 1 status you're doing so based on the assumption that PCGS got it right all 450 times on the 68's and that not one of those coins stacks up with the one graded by them MS-69.
In that group of 68's there are probably a good number that just made the 68 grade. You'll probably find a good number of mid-range 68's that are outstanding coins with a great strike, outstanding luster, etc. You're also probably going to have a few coins that are absolutely brilliant, sharply struck and if they are legitimate 68's they won't have any distracting marks in a prime focal area. What held those half a dozen or more coins back from getting that magical MS-69 grade? Is PCGS that precise in drawing the line between 68 and 69 (given the subjective, changing nature of coin grading) that none of the hundreds of 68's really don't merit a 69? If you covered the labels and took the one 69 and put it into a group of the top 50 68's what percentage of the graders at PCGS or for that matter seasoned State Quarter specialist could consistently pick out the 69?
What do you think?
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
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Comments
You're correct. I changed the scenerio to 450 68's in general. It changes the scenerio to some extent but I think the overall principal is the same.
The only circulating MS-69's that I have seen, two Lincoln cents, had marks consistent with the grade.
Under 5x magnification, there was a single miniscule mark on each coin, and in both cases, I would call it a graze instead of a tick. The grazes were very shallow, and the coin had to be held at a specific angle to even see them. In my experience with Lincolns, MS-68 coins have 2 or 3 of these marks.
As to the MS-68 quarters, I would guess that like any other series, you will find some of those pieces high end and some low end for the grade. Think of how much difference can be seen by putting dozens of MS-64 Morgans side by side.
Keith
I also recently upgraded my Lincoln Memorial to a MS69 and in looking at my MS68's (I kind of bought a few when the prices were way down on a hunch) there is a difference. I didn't suspect there would be but I was wrong.
peacockcoins
If that's your opinion fine. I have limited experience grading modern coins but based on the numerous stories I've heard from long time collectors and dealer who have seen thousands if not tens of thousands of high grade modern coins very few would express the kind of confidence you have expressed in PCGS's ability to pick out that one 69 in the mix of the 50 high end 68's.
How many times have you heard the most experience modern collectors on this board (I think even Wondercoin has made such comments) express the sentiment that a coin they submitted came back in a grade other than what they expected (ususually lower). Numerous times I've heard the comment (again from some very experienced collectors) "it's got a shot at" such and such a grade. I think the subtleties that differentiate a high end 68 from crossing the line to make it a 69 can easily be lost in the mire of subjectivity.
I too, have been guilty of that "shot xx" mentality with some of my modern submissions. I think the difference with the the 69 grade is that the coin still stands out. Submitting a quarter in MS-66 or 67, you expect several marks on the coin. Then, you wonder if the mark is enough to knock it into the lower grade. The submitter feels the mark isn't as severe as the grader usually. With the 69, you aren't looking at the severity of a mark, but the total absence of it.
Keith
I am on the road today, but look forward to commenting on this thread later tonight. Good reading so far
"With the 69, you aren't looking at the severity of a mark, but the total absence of it."
Maybe not total absence because both the PCGS and ANA grading guides allow for one or two miniscule marks or imperfections on an MS-69 coin. I know this is splitting hairs but when you reach these lofty grades (MS-68~70) in many cases (not always) it's that kind of hair splitting that separates the grades; at least it should be if we're discussing accurately graded coins.
You are right about the definition, but I think that the further down the grade scale you go, the harder it is to differentiate between grades. In the case of my two Lincolns that I have had, neither one had a mark visible with the naked eye. The MS-68's I have made have usually had a naked eye visible flaw, or the magnified marks were 3 or 4 versus a single mark on the 69.
Since the lower grades, 65-67, allow for more markings, a submitter is more likely to think that the coin is better than it really is. I don't think that I ever submitted a modern commem that I thought would grade MS-70, but knew ahead of time that all were solid 68 or 69 coins.
Keith
BTW, the coin doesn't have to be modern-- it could be a Morgan.
Obscurum per obscurius
I hear you. In a lot of situations, especially with coins that are borderline between two grades, even seasoned collectors will disagree on which side of the line separating the grades a coin should fall. On the particular day the NY Quarter was graded three graders and a finalizer gave the coin the nodded at 69. Was this after the customary 15 second scan the thousands of State Quarters receive? What was different about this coin that separated it from ALL of the 450 68's graded (that also received the benefit of that 15 second scan) prior to this coin? Did the graders realize that were making a decision that had a major financial impact for the owner of this coin? Was this the first, hundredth or eight-hundredth coin graded by these graders that day?
Need I go on?
It's 2 graders and if they agree a finalizer. It only goes to a third grader if the first two graders disagree.
Was this after the customary 15 second scan the thousands of State Quarters receive?
15 seconds for a state quarter? Highly unlikely. Maybe 3-5 seconds per side. I'd also doubt that the graders who saw this coin would have said MS69 after a standard look and then be done with it. They'd have realized this coin was much nicer and more expensive than an average coin submitted and they'd have taken additional time and probably used a glass to inspect the coin.
Did the graders realize that were making a decision that had a major financial impact for the owner of this coin?
Of course. The graders are not blind idiots (well, maybe blind, but not idiots). They aren't out of touch with the prices being paid. They knew what they were doing. They also knew the liability they were assessing to PCGS should they screw up the grade on this coin.
Was this the first, hundredth or eight-hundredth coin graded by these graders that day?
This really shouldn't matter to a good grader.
But, on the issue of the other (450) MS68 coins. My best guess is I have probably seen and/or owned at one time close to 200 of the MS68 coins out there. Yes, they range in quality from "low end" to "high end", as every group of 450 MS68 coins in any denomination would. Did I ever think one or two of the MS68 coins had a chance for a higher grade? Probably. Have I ever tried to "upgrade" an MS68 state quarter? No. There are just certain grades that are near impossible to achieve and a mint state Wash Quarter in MS69 is one of them imho. Now that an MS69 has been graded, yes, I will be more sensitive to the prospects of trying to make an MS69 state quarter, as many collectors and dealers will. But, again, I've personally only made -3- MS68 state quarters in 3 years, so do I think I'll grade an MS69 state quarter any time soon-heck no!
Now, to address pmh1nic's question point blank: Is there an MS68 state quarter or two out there with "claims to the next highest grade"? Imho, of course. Just like there are several MS68 state quarters with "claims to a lower grade" on another day imho. And, when that super, super "PQ" MS68 quarter gets upgraded to an MS69, its prior history as an MS68 will likely mean very little in the scheme of things, as the coin will command "big" money, compliments of the metaphysics of third party grading
Thanks for the input. You're the specialist in this area and I appreciate your perspective and opinion. I don't have Braddick's total faith in the graders at PCGS but I do respect their expertise.
gmarguli
I'm sorry, it was NGC who has three grades view the coin and a finalizer if there is a dispute. They do try to be more thorough
I don't know how many times you spent an full day look at hundreds of coins but I can guarantee you (I've done it) your eyes are not as good on the last few hundred as they are on the first. Graders aren't supermen. It does matter.
PCGS only faces liability when there is a clear (in the judgement of PCGS) case of over grading. A big hole in the liability issue is "grading is part science and part art and is subjective in nature." We're not talking about low end 68's verses a solid 69. We're talking some number out of the 450 68's that are very near that borderline, a line that from day to day and week to week and month to month (however long the time period has been since the first state quarter was graded MS-68) has had a tendency to shift. That shift only has to be every so slight to push want was a 68 six months ago to 69.
I think what Wondercoin has said regarding the issue is probably close to reality. Just as there are probably a few of those 68's that really should be 67's, some of those 68's are probably 69's.
Now my last question? What kept the coin from MS-70?
When it comes to grading MS66/67, and even MS68 State quarters, I'm sure PCGS can and does 'get it wrong' on occassion. No arguement from me there.
But this new MS69? A pop one coin for the entire series?? I've got to believe the graders spent more than the customary 5 seconds on this one.
Who wants to bet this one was also seen by a grader or two not even "in the room"?
I think when the first 1970-D Kennedy is made in MS68, or that PR68CAM Barber half is seen and graded, more time is spent on these special coins (special grades!) than others.
In that respect, yes, I have full confidence in PCGS and the ability these graders possess to look at that NY State Quarter and give it the full MS69 grade.
peacockcoins
So then you don't agree with Wondercoin that there may a few State Quarters graded 68 at some point in past year or so that might deserve the 69 grade. Are you sure about that?
I believe these exotic grades- like this MS69 quarter stand alone and apart from all others.
So, with that said, No. I don't think any of the other 450+ MS68's would go MS69.
With that said I'll even go out on a limb and state I doubt if another MS69 will be made with 2000 or 2001 State quarters (I can't predict the quality of the 2002 and forward-).
peacockcoins
That's a pretty strong statement, especially given that we've yet to hear even the barest description of this MS69 quarter from an expert who has seen it and 200 of its little brothers...
You might also check out my latest posts in the "regrade" thread regarding the exotic PR70 grade.
I have some more thoughts to add to this thread about grading in general, but I gotta say 'em in pictures, so it may be a bit.
Braddick has to have seen the coin, plus many of the 68's to make the statement.
Time will tell if one more out of the millions will be found.
Supercoin: Not really. I just dedicate a great deal of my time these days to the task of upgrading coins. It is only logical that the top 1% of the MS68's have a "claim to the next highest grade", just like the worst 1% of the MS68's have a "claim to the next lowest grade". This concept doesn't warrant one to scream "Eureka, eureka" in the streets. This isn't some breakthrough original thought of mine. And, where pmh1nic took acedemic license is when he suggested my comment meant the top 1% with "claims to the next highest grade" were, in fact, the next highest grade. Leading to Braddick's dissent. It all makes perfect sense when you can read it all; if we were talking it would be more confusing
I would be more shocked to see this coin and not be wowed by its visual beauty than I'd be surprised if PCGS was simply wrong and it was just an nice 'MS68' with a MS69 candy wrapper.
peacockcoins
But if you're saying in your last post that you are going to give us a description of that MS69 as soon as you have time, great! Various people have been asking you to "shed some light" there and it's remained dark. Bad things can be easily imagined in the dark.
PS -- I should have said "visual aids", not pictures, and I have yet to create them. They aren't state-quarter specific, though I may use them as an example since I've been picking on my favorite series lately.
I think this amounts to Wondercoin saying that one of the MS68's in existance may warrant a MS69 grade and Braddick saying not only is this not possible, but that no other MS69 coin exists for 1999-2001. (I do not know the numbers behind this statement, but from what I have seen I would bet that statistics would not play a role in that statement)
Edited because I cannot spell
My only comment is PCGS places their name on a coin like this- one for the first time- it's going to receive plenty of press here on the boards- they're going to make sure and get this one right.
I'm not talking about a mechanic error (side note: I collect these. Anyone have a good one let me know, I pay top dollar for PCGS defects!), but the first ever MS69 Clad quarter.
-We'll also check back in a few months. By then many Dealers/collectors will have had a chance to pick through and cherry their mint sets for additional 69's. Bet you none are made.
peacockcoins
Come back in 14 years to see what becomes of the MS69 State Quarters from 1999-2001. Give them a chance to be graded or upgraded.
No academic license...you said that "probably" a few of those 68's had a "chance" at 69. The "had a chance at the next higher grade" statement coming from a modern high grade quarter expert says three very important things to me. First, making a 69 is not easy. Second, the line between PQ 68 and 69 is not well defined and that decerning when a coin crosses the line is difficult even for someone as experienced as Wondercoin AND the PCGS graders. Third, given the subjective nature of grading a the shifting of grading standards pinning ones hopes on that difficult to discern, ever so slightly shifting line is risky business.
Which leads to another thread related to understanding and identifying high grade coins.
Another question: When the MS69 was announced, there were 44 MS68 NY's listed to go with it, now there are only 43. Was it an upgrade?
Another question: When the MS69 was announced, there were 44 MS68 NY's listed to go with it, now there are only 43. Was it an upgrade? "
dbbdie55: Do you remember when I mentioned that exact Silver Dollar date and suggested why are folks worried about modern upgrades/jumps in price when classic upgrades can be so risky and significantly more huge dollar-wise in such a jump! Now, you tell me a coin jumped $100,000 between grades MS64 and MS65!! Boy, "I'm in the wrong business"
I have no idea about the PCGS pops going up and down on a coin. I will note that I am seeing this quite a bit in some other series right now and trying to "make heads or tails" of it myself. I have some ideas, but until I confirm my ideas I will not mention them. As for the NY MS69 quarter itself, I have -0- information on the coin other than my knowledge that it came to me in an MS69 holder. But (and this has nothing to do with the NY quarter) if PCGS were to correct a mistake in their grading and move up a coin to its proper grade, why would it matter that the coin was once graded wrong and then promptly corrected by the grading company? Not sure I follow the significance of this?
Ah, the subjectivity, mistake, changing standards, etc. factor. The point you are making for individual coins concerns me, no doubt. However the real worry comes in Sets, where the problem is multiplied. In other words, with lables covered, how many #2 sets could you compare to #3 sets and always pick the better set? Would different graders or companies perform consistently? Worse, what if you resubmitted all of the coins within those sets -- would they still come back as the same ranking sets? How many of the coins would have different grades? I would find it difficult to purchase such things on-line, and I find it difficult to feel much respect for high-ranking "common coin" sets based on condition rarity. Perhaps I will feel differently when these issues somehow stabilize or the industry makes a change.
I was questioning whether the 69 could have been an upgrade, which someone said was impossible. As for the 86-O, the nice 64's go for big money, and people have been trying to get them into 65 holders for quite some time. Feel free to join that game, but you seem to be doing quite well in the areas you deal in.
May I suggest that Mitch be the Trustee and hold the money (he won’t invest it in Enron I am sure - he's too conservative). Is this legal, Mitch - not you holding the money, but the pool itself?
In any case, Mitch, is it OK with you to be the Trustee (if not will Tad step up)? If so, send your check with your guess to the man. Let’s set a deadline for entries, like February 28, 2002, after which the Trustee will post each name and his/her guess.
Some suggested rules: Duplicate winning guesses share the pot. PCGS employees, particularly Rick Montgomery, are not allowed to enter. Both wondercoin and supercoin are so allowed, and are both considered chicken if they don’t
By the way, I’m suggesting the pool to see what people think about the possibility of more ms69 state quarters, not merely to give you all a chance to cash in on your expertise. And it will provide a date on which board members can go back to reflect on their judgments – at that time some will beat their breast
If this works, Gerry would you post the key thread and let's get started!! And, by the way, if we want to make this pool more interesting, make each contestant guess BOTH the MS69 pop of the Goodacre and State Quarters!!! That would be really fun!!
"I'll never forget my time spent with Ms. Liberty; although it was only a couple days, I really feel we bonded."
Run through my handy NSA code-cracking computer I come up with:
"It was no different than half of the MS68 examples I've handled, except it was in an MS69 holder."
Alternate interpretation is:
"Holy cr*p, lookit that tick on the portrait!!"
Thanks for finally sharing.
BTW, the pool sounds like a great idea. Quick, lock the thread!!
Great amendment and I'm happy to accept it. I'll throw in $50 to add to the grand prize.
Since board members no longer have to send a check, they can private you with their guess.
I start up a thread, and more importantly, send you my estimate shortly - check too.
Mitch,
I've got three 1964-D Kennedy's with end roll toning going to PCGS tomorrow. I think that they should get MS-65 or 66's. If more than one comes back 66, I'll donate one to the cause. (I still need one for my set
Keith
1. Me : $100 in CW Trends coins to winner(s)
2. Registrycoin: $100 in CW Trends coins to winner(s)
3. Gerry : $ 50 in CW Trends coins to winner(s)
4. Supercoin : WILL DESCRIBE WHAT HE IS COMMITTING TO THE CONTEST
5. Keith : PCGS slabbed 1964 Kennedy Half Dollar in either PCGS- MS65 or PCGS-MS66
Anyone else interested in being a sponsor for the contest?
Gerry: You will post a thread shortly outlining the proposed contest rules, terms and conditions. Let the contest begin!!