Financially speaking

1954

Last week REA went live for all the heavy hitters and big time dreamers. For three hours all I did was drool and dream while my office phone continued to ring off my desk. Items that you never see offered are now showing up all in one auction. REA seemed to have 100 lots of T206 cards, including the Wagner and three Doyles. Let's not forget about the Ruth rookie or the never seen Butter Cream Ruth.
As I drove home that night, I thought about financially how the auction house will do because all 1690 lots are going to go for stupid money. Or are they? Did REA overload this auction with too many great items? Well, today I saw that Mastro is now up and running. I believe that they will be going live in the next week or so. Their auction has some really nice items up for bidding as well. I can't recall how many lots Mastro has, but it was pretty impressive items. As I looked at the closing date for Mastro's auction, I believe it was two days before REAs. Now I am no dumby (this is a joke), but how much money is out there to support two great auction within a one week period? I realize that the top collectors (maybe 6 guys) in this hobby have the funds to buy pretty much anything they want. However, what about the big spenders that can drop $50K that week? How many of those guys exist? I know there are many guys that can afford to drop $10K, but these are the guys that are starting to feel a pinch from IRS or perhaps their business is slowing down because of the economy. Then there are those collectors that might only have $4K to spend that week. Who gets the business? Does that guy wait until Saturday to play in REA or does he perhaps overspend in Mastro to guarantee a win? Okay the last question of the night. Which auction house gets hurt more - REA or Mastro?

Looking forward to hearing your side-
Shane

Griffins

Shane- for one, I think you're underestimating the number of deep pocket collectors. And this same thing happened last year (both ending the same week) and it had little or no effect- prices were still thru the roof. While it would seem the economy is not as good as last year in some places, in a lot of places in the country it's not any different than it was.
Money always has money, and I think as a consequence the scarce items will continue to shoot thru the roof. As you said it's the smaller guys and smaller lots that are feeling the pinch, but auction houses don't really cater to them. If you look at some of the lotting in Mastro it would seem aimed as much at dealer lots for break up than to collectors building collections to hold.
The Wagner is already thru the roof, as are most other tougher items. I don't think the timing will make a bit of difference.

1954

Griff-
I am not underestimating the number of big players. Last years economics are much different than this year. However, I am questioning the move of REA by throwing in so many quality items at one time, especially when Mastro is ending just before them. Do you really think all the T206 cards are going to perform at the level it has been when there are two complete sets for auction and one that is being broken down into lots? The Wagner is a different story. The big dogs going after the RARE stuff are going to battle it out. I am specifically talking about the lots with the same type of material in it.
I would have thought we might have a pretty good conversation from others here on the board that might have an opinion other than what is your favorite symbol.

Griffins

I agree it is ridiculous that both auctions end within days of each other. Two big egos going at it at the expense of consignors.
I know at least a few people that have wanted to go with REA but passed as they couldn't wait for an annual event.

cohocorp

wow. those auctions are really stacked.

Wondo

I guess it depends on your definition of deep pockets. If a guy has $50k to spend, he has to hedge and look for deals in Mastro's if there are interesting items in REA.

I agree with Griffins - the boys are butting heads at the expenseof the consignors. Last year I picked up a P2 set for about 60% of market in one of these auctions. I attributed that to too much material at one time. Just my .02.

Davalillo

So if you are a buyer and not a consignor its all good!

Wondo--PSA has my 71 Milk Duds set.

Wondo

It can be good for buyers - I have two consigned lots in Mastro. Look for some deals on the "marginal" material - and I mean that loosely. The selection is outstanding and I have my lot(s) picked out already to buy at any cost! (right)

Dav,

Good luck (but not TOO good of luck) with the Milk Duds. Where did you get the original raw set?

Davalillo

Wondo,

Mr. Mint Auctions--same place I have gotten most of my stuff that is a little bit off the beaten track.

TheCARDKid

The market seems to absorb alot of high end material.

I've lost track of how many Ruth rookies REA has auctioned off in the last few years (3 already? And they were unknown before). Or the '33 Goudey Lajoie. There's been one in nearly every big auction for the last few years (sometimes multiples in one auction). Where do they all go? I don't know.

I dont know who has the advantage. REA jumped out earlier. Maybe their strategy is to get more early bids and more commitment early. And in contrast Mastro doesn't look as good. But then if things dont pan out in REA, maybe similar lots in Mastro will jump.

The T206 Wagner is already at $170 k. Doesn't that sell for around $150 k in PSA 1?

1954

The big and rare items are going to bring the big premium regardless of how many auctions are closing at the same time. I think Jim is right about being a buyer now and getting an opportunity for a good buy.