If much of the demand for keys is from hoarders...

cladking

...then why are so many of the common moderns so inexpensive in nice condition?

This, no doubt, has some applicability to classics as well but it is quite pronounced
in moderns. For instance the '70-S sm dt cent is a very popular variety. But the mint-
age simply dwarfs the mintage of something like a nice very choice '89-D quarter or
even a nice gem '79-D cent. The '70 is a variety which many collector will forego sim-
ply because it is a variety. It sells for about $50 and there are probably around 1/4
million available. The '79-D cent is needed in every memorial cent collection and eve-
ry complete Lincoln cent collection. While choice coins are merely tough, gems are
very elusive. Only about 1.5% of the '79 mint sets have a gem Denver cent while 10%
of the '70 mint sets have a small date cent.

The '79-D cent seems to attract little interest. The $20 price tag in the PCGS guide
barely covers grading costs.

It just seems odd that a coin with five times the demand and one fifth the availability
would sell for about a fifth of the price.

I don't think the small date is overpriced. If it were an older coin it would sell for much
more.

CheeseGuy

<< <i>...then why are so many of the common moderns so inexpensive in nice condition?
>>



I think you've already answered your own question

cladking

<< <i>

<< <i>...then why are so many of the common moderns so inexpensive in nice condition?
>>



I think you've already answered your own question >>



So you're figuring that almost no one desires moderns in nice condition.

This may not be far off the mark since it seems like there are only a few thousand
serious collectors of each series. A few hundred are registry collectors. Very few
old timers collect these so the balance which is creating the demand is mostly from
newbies.

The price of the '70-S sm dt is up sharply in the last several years because of this
demand.

One is still left to wonder if the newbies will put in the effort to update their "com-
mon" coins.

kranky

Comparing grade rarity and absolute rarity isn't appropriate.

There are thousands of 79-D cents available for every collector who is doing a Lincoln set. It's just that not very many of them are in gem grades.

"It just seems odd that a coin with five times the demand and one fifth the availability would sell for about a fifth of the price."

That comparison would only be valid if all those who wanted a 79-D cent, wanted it in 65+.

Keys are keys in absolute terms (for the most part - we all know how un-rare yet expensive the SVDB Lincoln is). Grade rarity is mostly an issue for registry set folks, and those who really want the best available. The absolute rarity is what keeps the value of keys high and generally rising across all grades.

cladking

<< <i>

Grade rarity is mostly an issue for registry set folks, and those who really want the best available. The absolute rarity is what keeps the value of keys high and generally rising across all grades. >>



Older series which are well established among collectors show huge jumps
in grade well below what registry collectors seek. Indian cents with huge mint-
ages show ten fold jumps across the same range to which I'm referring; MS-64
to MS-65.

The '79-D actually comes quite high grade. Probably MS-68 but top grade spec-
imens are very lustrous and very well made. Tiny ticks is usually what keeps
them from even higher grade.

But even nice MS-64's will require some effort since MS-65 isn't worth the cost of
grading and you'll need to look at a few rolls or about ten mint sets to find one.
The rolls and mint sets are common enough in this case but try finding these at
your local shop; it is improbable. Nor are they often advertised for sale. I see al-
most no evidence that collectors are assembling nice attractive sets of moderns
in any sort of substantial numbers even today.

So why is the "common" small date worth so much money?

rgCoinGuy

<< <i>So why is the "common" small date worth so much money? >>



Hype, and term "key date" being applied to it, I believe in regards to the 70 S.
Your other questions though I find very informative and interesting. I love reading your observations and I do believe you have hit on something that could be a way for us who don't have big dollars to still purchase nice "cheap" coins now that will almost no doubt go up in the future, especially after the memorial series is finally retired for good. Who knows how long it will actually take for prices to actually rise, but like the 1954 P in MS66 or above (common coin but condition rarity), I do see the chance for coins like you mentioned to rise quite a bit when all is said and done.

mrpotatoheadd

<< <i>Nor are they often advertised for sale. I see al-
most no evidence that collectors are assembling nice attractive sets of moderns
in any sort of substantial numbers even today. >>


Depends on your definition of nice.

Personally, I consider a "nice" 79-D to be a bright red coin with no major distracting bagmarks, which I'd guess might translate to MS63 (or not- I don't really know for sure). I doubt I'd have much trouble finding one for about a quarter at most coin shops. Contrast that with the $20 you noted for a PCGS example above, and the question is... which coin will most collectors choose?

Now, I'm just pulling numbers out of a hat here, but suppose there are 25 other date/mint combinations that are comparable in value to the 79-D in the memorial series. That would mean a collector would have to spend $500 to get those dates in PCGS holders, but just a little over five bucks to buy them raw. How many collectors are there out there who feel that spending $500 for PCGS coins provides them with enough of an increase in the enjoyment of their collection over what they would experience if they had instead bought the raw coins for $5?

cladking

<< <i>
Depends on your definition of nice.

Personally, I consider a "nice" 79-D to be a bright red coin with no major distracting bagmarks, which I'd guess might translate to MS63 (or not- I don't really know for sure). I doubt I'd have much trouble finding one for about a quarter at most coin shops. Contrast that with the $20 you noted for a PCGS example above, and the question is... which coin will most collectors choose?

Now, I'm just pulling numbers out of a hat here, but suppose there are 25 other date/mint combinations that are comparable in value to the 79-D in the memorial series. That would mean a collector would have to spend $500 to get those dates in PCGS holders, but just a little over five bucks to buy them raw. How many collectors are there out there who feel that spending $500 for PCGS coins provides them with enough of an increase in the enjoyment of their collection over what they would experience if they had instead bought the raw coins for $5? >>



Definitely do not be buying MS-64 Lincolns in holders. The added value of
grading is greater than the market price of the coin.

But I doubt you'll have much luck going into a coin shop and finding a nice
attractive MS-64 Lincoln. Most dealers don't stock these in any grade be-
cause they don't have customers. Uncs and BU's are so common that more
than a quarter or half a dollar is too much and there isn't much demand for
the high grade coins. Lots of dealers now will keep a book of these and it
is likely they'll be a '79-D or two but these will invariably be unattractive coins
since that's the way they were made. The biggest problem is scratches but
they also have striking issues and some spotting. Few shops keep more than
a few mint sets. Rolls are common but you're about as likely to encounter a
small hoard of rolls as a single one or two. Most likely is they'll have no rolls.
(many dealers would put these in the cash register still).

By the way, I pretty much agree with you on MS-63 being "good enough".
For series in which I don't specialize I just want a nice attractive coin that
is reasonably well made and well preserved. Some 63's would meet these
criteria but in Lincolns I'd usually have to go to 64 or higher.