Accurate value numbers for MLP (and all) coins in PCGS slabs

Grasshopper

This is the first time I've started a post, and maybe this is a dead horse issue, but being an MPL collector, this is an in-my-face issue. But I assume it happens in all coin market segments.

Mr. Stewart Blay will most likely land +/- 100K or more for his beauty of a 1914 (congrats, by the way), and we are collectively 'surprised' because the price guide tells us some auction-driven (I assume here) price of 20K exists for what is an almost unique coin. But given the general rarity of our MPL, the guide, as it now stands, is not very helpful.

I’m not attacking or being hyper-critical, but I'd like to know: Do my fellow collectors agree or disagree on this point? PGCS should account for private transactions for coins in PCGS holders between reputable dealers and sophisticated knowledgeable buyers making deals at arm’s length, as these transactions happen with great frequency compared to the auction movement (at least for MPLs). MPLs are a great example, because the PCGS numbers seem so skewed from reality in not all, but many instances.

How to make informed decisions when the numbers appear to be driven by sub-standard (mostly, politely put) inventory in the big auctions. Stewart testing the market at HA helps, but getting quality MPL happens mostly behind the scenes, as we all are aware.

I feel that reasonable up-to-date privately-driven information is important (not real-time), but reasonable.

Any opinions to be shared?

RBinTex

First, you need to correct the typo in your title - MLP should be MPL.

Second, welcome and thanks for the post and your input.

Third, YES, the more accurate info PCGS could incorporate into the updating of the price guide the better. Trouble is getting them to do it. Believe me, a few years ago it was a 1-2 on a scale of 10.

Now they are at least approaching A 3-4 and the fact that they HAVE made SOME effort in staying on top of it more is evident.

Unless and until there is some type of RELIABLE central database (sort of like the clearing corporations for stocks, commodity trades, etc.) there will NEVER be up to the minute real time accurate info - only varying shades of grey.

Grasshopper

Thank you on a number of points. Misusing acronyms that I actually use in my coin collecting is a little embarrassing....

I do appreciate your historical perspective and the idea of a central database is well-taken. Glad to hear that things have gotten better over time as well. Did the positive change occur naturally? Sounds like the desire to improve is present, but the reporting technology may be wanting. Could be an interesting business opportunity for a numismatist with data collecting and handling skill sets.

Thanks again. Maybe the reporters can add 'grey' to RD, RB and BN

lasvegasteddy

hey duane,

i believe there will always be question to true value and will never be cornered in the same.the whole toning address skews projections as some actually see the colors copper can acquire to overshadow the well preserved mintstate red.i love rb's over red's and wonder why a red is priced over a "pq" red brown but that is my affair

the address of eye appeal as being part of technical grade and not separate itself adds to the uncertainty.i'd think beyond assigned technical grade should be assigned an eye appeal multiplier of it's base "technical" grade.the concept of cac stickers i find addressing this but level of "pq" could be addressed more refined yet in "per se" like a level 2 is worth 2x times a level 1 (which is "base priced") and a level 5 worthy of 5x a base price.i know a pr65rd level 3 sounds like a mess and may never happen but clarity could be found.

on tracking current trade levels many issues come into play from price manipulation between traders,truth in disclosure to even include loss of emotional stability between 2 in a bidding war.i do believe open market trading holds high account in like ebay,heritage or teletrade in open market values but personal transactions will bear merits of price values on personal levels.

i seriously doubt matte proof lincolns will ever be leashed due to variables some of which could be addressed...some that can't...and some that will never be besides i'm just like a village idiot here by those with true wisdom on these matters.

"just thought i'd drop in my opinion is all"

sweet mattys you have there by the way duane and by all means don't be shy on posting as you did an awesome job on your first up to bat...;-)

lasvegasteddy

i would add too on note of price guide being out of date.many coins suffer as those prices reflect last auction realized take example in the 1964 sms issues.with but a mere 20 to 50 sets known to of been issued...look at the price guide on those too

WaterSport

Only one person to my knowledge is responsible for the price guide updates. The reality of it is that it is not a service that brings money to PCGS so not a lot of money is spent on it.

I agree, those coins with low mintages should include the private sale. But here is the other side of that coin. Most people will NOT divulge the selling/buying price on high end material.

So we are sorta stuck for now. Unless, you are willing to step forward and give it a whack?

WS

ambro51

Perhaps these figures across the board are artificially held on the low side, since PCGS does at some point have a part in the "real money" aspect of coin sales since the guarantee is "real money"

Heritage completed auctions and ebay completed auctions should be a good portion of the weighted calculation of current market value on any coin that is within the value guide. They are easily tracked and computed and in the future will play a more important role in coin sales since fewer and fewer in hand purchases will occur as the internet improves and coin shows become too much of a "chore" to attend. Especially on esoteric coins such as MPL's......

Grasshopper

Thank you for all comments. The person responsible for the price guide updates need incentives, for certain. Is the position paid, or volunteer?

I'm surprised the PGCS does not take the long view and realize that the pricing service actually does in the long term help finance PCGS, as it gives PGSC more credibility as the big gun in town and more money will be spent on PGCS coins (because the are in PCGS holders). But the reality is they already have perceived premier status, so the pricing service gets the short-end, as it’s on the ‘wish-list”. NGC and other competing companies need to pay attention, to this though.

I'm new to the coin industry, but recognizing it as what could be described as a "well-financed cottage industry" in many ways. With a little organization, this industry could give investors alternatives to 401s, etc. But, until they tighten up the act, I guess the big boys trading stocks and other highly-regulated instruments won't take this industry seriously. The industry is clearly in transition from old school to new.

And on the issue that most people will not divulge the prices on high end coins, that is non-sensical to me. The dealers actually benefit by disclosure, as the prices they generate are better than the auction prices, typically, so they can ask for more money if they have the price guide support. And realistically, if I want to sell a high-end MPL, would it not benefit me if I could show a prospective buyer an accurate "PCGS" price guide? Right now, it goes like: “Well, gee, I know the price guide says 2, but the real market is 6….” As a dealer, I have to do alot less convincing, no?

And thank you for the encouragement; As a consumer, I would definitely 'give it a whack". I'd be happy to disclose my costs to the responsible pricing person, as it benefits me and my dealer to have my true costs made public because I generate higher value for my own collection.

There is a counter-balance somewhere here. HA?

WaterSport

If you started with a simple spread sheet of all MPL w/the three color variations, I think there are enough folks here who could "adjust" the prices closer to reality. It will take a commitment on your part to maintain it, and post it on a regular basis. That's what I meant by giving it a whack.

WS

Grasshopper

Got you! That's a great idea - thank you. After talking with some knowledgeable coin people, I now better understand that the person within PGCS who has to compile and maintain all this has a tougher job then I had initially anticipated. As I understand the dynamics better now, this is not an easy balance to strike (meaning which sales are considered for the record and which not, because the quality variation between the same grades can be enormous). That's the catch I did not fully comprehend.

But I think anything we can do to help out is a decent way to start. So I will give it a crack!

cohodk

I think every MPL should be sent to PCGS for regrade all at the same time. This way coins can be accurately compared to one another at one point in time. We all know grading standards have changed and it would be nice to see a true pop report.

Then a price guide can be established.

ambro51

Perhaps if they offer the edge view holder.....all the MPLs would come back in.

Grasshopper

I take your point. But what if you are holding marginal coins. Where is the incentive to ask for a re-grade?

And a real pop report seems like a unicorn! If we had authentic information in terms of population from mint through today on MPL, then value and a decent price guide could be established. We still have informed numismatists reasonably debating over whether the original mint pop on the 1909VDB MPL was 420 or 1,194.

A good debate, if nothing else.....Perceptions are funny and I think they are changing as we watch this 1914 sale as an example of a market actually correcting itself before our eyes.

Just out of curiosity, I tried a little math exercise, using just one year of the MPL series (1914) as an example.

"In recent years the rarity of Matte Proof Lincoln cents (and other Matte Proof denominations) has been realized. Of the 1,365 Matte Proofs reported coined for 1914, for example, probably only a few hundred still survive. Unless they have been cleaned, Matte Proofs of this era nearly always show various gradations of brown, gold, and iridescent toning, due to the chemical composition of the tissue paper in which they were distributed and stored." Q. David Bowers.

Having read that, I did a little digging on why Mr. Bowers would state that "probably only a few hundred still survive.

If you think about it, the 1914 MPL (and most other years in the MPL series) may be not just a 'conditional' rarity, but an actual 'rarity' in the coin world. That fact that people are just realizing this is simply a function of old perception, and not reality. For example:

1) Mintage of 1914 MPL: 1,365 reported:

2) Then, we look at certified population reports at just 3 main grading services:
PCGS: 279 certified
NGC: 148 certified
ANAC: 77 certified
Total certified: 515 certified by PCGS, NGC and ANACS

3) Now, let’s go to PR66-PR67+ in RE, RB and BR (and PCGS, NGC and ANACS):
Total in 66RB and higher 61
Total in 66RD and higher 25
Total in 66BN and higher 11
That means that the total MPL 1914 PR66 and 67 in RE, RB, and BN = 98

4) That leaves 850 1914 MPLs are unaccounted. What happened to those 850 coins? They may have been unsold, distributed as circulated pieces; unsold and destroyed; sold and hoarded, sold and spent (remember, it was 1914, people were sick of the 'ugly' MPLs, and an ugly penny was an ugly penny).

5) Ironically to me, people in 1909 may have had more incentive to 'keep' a souvenir of a 1909 (the beginning of the series). That means that a 1914 PR68 may be the rarest MPL of them all, although I personally believe the '15s and 16s are tough to find also, as people were done with the entire matte movement at the point.

What are your thoughts, as an expert?

And I know about apples and oranges and all that, but consider this: The 1895 Morgan Silver Dollar is a to a well-known ‘admitted’ rarity, with only 880 minted in total. And you can bet that when they were purchased, they were not destroyed or spent (generally). The proof population for 1895 certified at PR66 or better is +/- 123 in number -- And if we look at the price guides, the cost per coin in PR66 is between $90,000.00-125,000.00 (for 'plain' proof, cameo, ultra, etc.) Much like MPL have BN, RB, RD, etc.

Just food for thought…

cohodk

And I know about apples and oranges and all that, but consider this: The 1895 Morgan Silver Dollar is a to a well-known ‘admitted’ rarity, with only 880 minted in total. And you can bet that when they were purchased, they were not destroyed or spent (generally). The proof population for 1895 certified at PR66 or better is +/- 123 in number -- And if we look at the price guides, the cost per coin in PR66 is between $90,000.00-125,000.00 (for 'plain' proof, cameo, ultra, etc.) Much like MPL have BN, RB, RD, etc.


MPL's are indeed scarce coins and in high grade quite rare, but the differences in price with other series can be explained in the same way real estate values differ. For example, my house is actually valued below the median for the USA, but if it was in California would probably be worth over $1 million or 5-6x the median. The debate between the collectability of Morgan dollars vs Lincoln cents is the same as determining whether a homeowner in California enjoys a better lifestyle than me.


As far as a reason to submit a liner coin, well that isnt my point. What I would like to see is every coin graded with respect to its peers. A coin graded 67 in years past may now only grade 66. The recent 1914 in the 66RD holder is a good example. Lets wipe the slate clean and see how rare a properly graded PR66 really is.

DMWJR

Cohodk -- what would you grade a coin like that 1914? It's a problem coin and can't be rated among other non-problem coins.

Grasshopper

Your real estate analogy works well for me. It is food for thought. But if 1,365 houses were constructed in 1914, and the records indicate that over 800 were now missing, would we not wonder whee they went? And how mnay actually renain? And my only point on your 'overall' re-grade theory is that while I like it, I suspect that thinking may be as I'm looking at a coin in my collection that has graded say PR65RD 10 years ago, but since, has obviously toned down to a BN. I send and receive a re-grade (actually, in today's grading system, a down grade) and lose value. So I have lttle incentive to want to partake in the plan. that's my point.

But one solution, I think, in the MPL world is that the color designations of RD, RB and BN are still allotted, but used as a lesser-factor grading element (and the subjective "eye-appeal") as suggested by Ted were used instead, then the beauty, strike and all the classic grading indicators are applied, with a eye appeal ("EA")"multipier" factored in. then, we get an accurate assessment of a coin by the PCGS pros (3-4 pros add the "EA" multiplier to any coin, irrespective of color, and that way, the color elements of RD, RB and BR are somewhat negated. The buyer will be asked in the market, do you prefer this unarractive RD coin for $1, or this monster attrative BR for #2.

Look at the coins in my collection (especially '15 and '16). They are both (one, arguabke BN coinsO, but can you say that teur ete appeal is any less teh any other coin, be it Rd or RB? I can't, so that is where my value questions releted to the color desinations are coming from.

Ted's idea is cool and do-able as I see it. We need input from people who grade for a living to get perspective that we may noy have.

cohodk

Doug,

If it is a problem coin them it should be removed from the pop reports completely. If it is slabbable then I cant see it any higher than 63 based on the pictures.

The point I am trying to get at is I think there are a few coins in 66 holders that were graded recently that are much better than some 67s I have seen in older holders. Just as there are some sweet business strikes in 66 holders that rival many in older 67 holders. If all coins could be graded against themselves then a TRUE and ACCURATE price guide be established.

BWRC

IMO, this PCGS PR66RD coin would not grade (altered surfaces) if cracked out and resubmitted today. Everytime it trades publicly in the future, price guides will be getting "false information" I agree with what Dave has said above. PCGS PR66RD below sells for $2,760!





One the other hand, I think this coin could blow away most if not all 1914's in PCGS PR67RB. Stewart tried it once for $200 before he sold it to me. Sells for $9,000!

Grasshopper

Gentlepeople:

I know we are mixing a number of MPL strings here, but the all inter-relate, and are all positive, as I see it.

Agreed with all. My only point to the above is I agree. But having the above coin that Brian points out (Ex. Blay coin) in my collection, I have an incentive to re-submit, and test for PR67. But the owner of the other 1914 only can lose their coin by re-submission. And frankly, they may not want to lose that coin, or have it down-graded, so the incentives are clearly different. So who makes the decision in your model as to which coins are acceptable or not? Does PCGS contact the owner, in this case??

And what of Ted's idea of having an eye appeal ("EA")"multiplier" factored in the grading, as it relates to my earlier point on the scarcity of the 1914 and thus true value as well?

For example:

As mentioned, I own a 1914 PCGS PR66RB (PQ, I believe, above). But despite what I think, PCGS presently prices 1914 PCGS PR66RBs (as an averaged whole) at $2,400. I paid $9,000 [WHOW! : )] --Trust me, there were other interested parties at that price, but sometimes the cash flow works, and sometimes not, on any level. (Steve-the spread sheet starts here! And *quality* MPL are not cheap; ask anyone in the top 30 of the Registry set). With an EA multiplier, as Ted suggested, my coin may be valued quite differently than many other 1914 PCGS PR66RBs. And a PR67, it may even be better the other PR67 RBs; who knows?

Population for 1914 certified pieces (w all believe these numbers are fantasy, as resubmits and all, so cohodk's point of wiping the slate clean is very well taken...
PGCS: 26 + (3) higher
NGC: 24 + (5) higher
ANACS: 3 + (0) higher
Those number, coupled with my point about a mintage of 1,365 and subsequent seeming rarity (according to the respected Mr. Bowers), lead to the same road.

So, does PGCS grade all 1914 PCGS PR66RB at $2,400 or $9,000? Mine might possibly be a top pop PR66 or even decent or better PR67. How to grade or tell?

Lastly, if Mr. Blay's coin now being sold does sell for 110K (just an example), what does that do for other high-end 1914 RD, RB or other? Maybe in some people's eyes, BNs are sometimes better looking coins then RD. RBs too. Who made this arbitrary rule that RD is more valuble than BN?

This is intended to really give a discussion and some thought to how the market is now re-correcting, based on rarity, conditional or otherwise.

This is why I said that the PCGS price-keeper's balancing job was so tough.

DMWJR

I agree with you Dave, Maybe a PR60rb on a net grade if they were slabbing all coins.

Blake, that 1914 you have is beautiful. The obverse is at least a 67. Unfortunately, I think the reverse is going to keep it from going 67rb (although I could be wrong).

Grasshopper

Thanks, Doug. Maybe We'll find out one of these days. By the way, TN rocks.

Duane

pennyannie

Grasshopper- Roughly 5000 MPL'S have been graded. Forget the resubmissions. Total minted less than 20,000. 50 percent are long gone (spent, lost etc) Some are in peoples ms colections and they do not even know it. Hard to tell PROOF from BUSINESS STRIKe is one big reason they can not be compared to Morgan proofs and others. For a couple of years chevy corvette had a ZR1 in the corvette line up. Cream of the crop for vettes. Sold rather poorly because there was very little to distingish it from the base model except 20,000 dollars difference. There can be only 100 complete MPL collections (certified) and less than 500 complete collections minus the 1909 VDB. People in this group are passionate and some have deep pockets and are willing to pay big $$$ wether the coin is really worth it or not. To them it is and that is what matters. You can probably find 250,000 collectors willing to buy a 100 dollar coin for every buyer willing to pay 100,000 dollars for a coin. This segment is so small compared to others. Had these coins been brilliant proofs instead of Matte finish.......

The MPL's being talked about here are the cream of the crop and are head and shoulders above the other 98 percent. These deserve big money and the others do not get to benifit from that in the same percentage.

I have actually held 50 to 60 different MPL's in hand. 1% of graded pop and not one single wonder wow coin. I own 11 MPL's and not one wow coin to the masses. ( i like mine and that is what matters to me) My guess would be there is less than 25 super MPL's , 100 a notch below, 2500 nice collector coins and then the rest. I do not think you can set the prices for the whole series based on what the top 25 coins sell for.

The Lincoln proofs from 1936 to 1942 do not bring a lot of $ compared to the numbers graded, I paid 430 for a 1936 pcgs 64 red (2 months ago and less than 100 for the others.

I love these MPL's but the masses do not. The price guide needs to be doubled across the board. Greysheet needs to be revamped. (10 percent difference between bid and ask????????)

BTW you are building a truly fantastic set of MPL's.

Thanks, Mark

Grasshopper

Sue-

Wow! That's the word alright! Thanks for the insight. The car analogy works. I like my coins as well, even though they may not look all that different from business strikes (generally). Although some Mattes just scream 'different'. The non-collector can't tell why, but realize they are seeing something special. Look at my '14 obverse. In Latin "res ipsa loquitur" -the thing speaks for itself....

My goal is to create a collection were 'regular' people, not collectors, look at each coin, and say "wow"!

Tall order, but working on it. Maybe even one 'wow' coin is enough. I'm too biased and close to tell.

It comes down to appreciation, like anything else. I’m a chess player, and enjoy watching high-level subtlety between masters. I can appreciate it. But most people would look at a beautiful move and say "huh"?

Where did you get you numbers, by the way?