1970 prices....

Raufus

My folks found a copy of "The Official 1970 Black Book of US Coins." I was looking over the prices listed for some of my favorite coins:

NE Shilling ABP $635
Pine Tree Shilling, Large Planchet, ABP $61.50
1776 Continental CURENCY, Pewter,good $220
1787 Fugio Cent Good $38.50
1907 Extra High relief $18,250
1907 HR Flat Rim EF $700.....

Even adjusted for inflation, an investment in fine coins in 1970 would seem to have outperformed the stock market (on average) by a substantial amount. And my Dad collected stamps! Wish he had put a few bucks into some of the above and some early american gold!

CaptHenway

Please remember that the Black Book was a lowball buying guide.

roadrunner

Even adjusted for inflation, an investment in fine coins in 1970 would seem to have outperformed the stock market (on average) by a substantial amount. And my Dad collected stamps! Wish he had put a few bucks into some of the above and some early american gold!

This statement will bring out all the stock bulls and anti-goldmen counter arguments.

To save time, the naysayers will claim a +10-15% per year increase in the DOW or S&P over the past 38 years. Then they will trot out the gains in Microsoft, etc. Then they will quote grading abuses, fictitious price guides, high margins, etc to diminish the returns. So no matter how good the coin returns on selected items were, you'll never convince the masses that stocks always outperform coins in any longer term period.

FWIW from someone who did own solid stocks from 1966-1987, they went pretty much nowhere over those 20 years. I would think that truly rare and gem coins held from 1970-1987 would have done far better than stocks. In that period good, well selected type or set-inclusive coins should have appreciated by a factor of 20X to 50X.
It's no secret that the next 20 yrs from 1987-2007 clearly favored stocks. But we're in another fresh cycle that is several years old.

roadrunner

RedTiger

Coins have done well overall since 1970, mostly fueled by the increase in precious metals prices. Grading standards have changed. It is easy enough in hindsight to cherry pick the coins that were the big winners. Keep in mind that time was like the wild west with many counterfeits in the key dates, and many whizzed and altered coins in the uncirculated coins. The knowledge collector had a big advantage, but few were in that class of collector.

Sleazy coin investment firms often use 1970 as their base and cite the huge annualized rate of return, usually using UNC prices from that era to MS65 prices of the current day. However, included in the the uncs of 1970 are all the AU sliders, plus all the altered and enhanced coins, so maybe 3% of those coins would grade out at MS65 today.

A few folks that were knowledgeable with a keen eye did manage to buy MS65s for UNC prices, but those were exceptional folks, not the average collector.