Question for Hoopster or Dallas
Boopotts
Posts: 6,784 ✭✭
in Sports Talk
How many runs do you think the 2008 Tigers project to score? Also, where does this lineup rank (right now, based on past performance and future expectations) amongst the great lineups of the past? Are they 'up there', or is it all hype?
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The 2007 Tigers scored 887 runs, good enough for 2nd in the AL.
Those lineups were basically the same. The only big change was Sheffield for 2007(.378OB%, .462 SLG%). Sheffield was good, but he was not Gary Sheffield of old. He was responsible for a moderate increase in the DH spot from 2006-2007(16 Batter runs compared to 10 from Thames in '06). In other words, he was not responsible for much of the increase of 65 runs. So what was?
The biggest difference for the increase in runs in 2007 was Magglio Ordonez's career year. His OPS+ went from 112 to 167! That is 62 Batter Runs in '07 compared to 10 in '06. That is a difference of 52 batter runs by Ordonez.
Also
Polanco an increase of 35 Batter runs.
Granderson an increase of 30 Batter Runs
BUT, on the other side of the coin, big drop offs in 2007 by Monroe and Inge really off set the gains by Polanco and Granderson.
They lost 28 batter runs in '07
So that is basically leaving Ordonez, Polanco, and Granderson as the culprits for the increase from '06 to '07. I would figure all three are more likely to produce at the '06 rate this coming season.
So lets look at the next typical culprit for an increase.
The 2006 Tigers had an OPS of .781 with Runners in Scoring position, and a .763 OPS with nobody on base.
The 2007 Tigers had an OPS of .861 with Runners in Scoring position, and a .780 OPS with nobody on base.
As you can see timely hitting was also a reason for the increase in runs. When forcasting teams, this is not an area that has a strong chance to continue onto the next season. More than likely, they won't have such a big difference in their RISP hitting as opposed to nobody on. I would expect this to revert more to the mean this year.
Lets look at the Tigers if they made no changes in 2008. A repeat of Maggio Ordonez career year is HIGHLY unlikely. Sheffield and Irod are just getting older and worse(Irod is a poor hitter now). The Tigers were healthy last year, and have already lost Granderson. Who knows how many games Sheffield the dirt bag game fixer will play. A regression of RISP hitting is very likely. Looking at alll this, the same 2008 Tigers would probably rank closer to their 2006 production...5th in the league in runs at around 822, maybe worse due to the continued regression of Sheffield and Irod. The Tigers over achieved offensively in 2007. Expect them to be more like 2006.
But they aren't the same as they have added Cabrerra and Renteria. With Renteria bumping Guillen to first, you are basically looking at Renteria replacing the production of Casey(last year's 1B). And Cabrerra replacing Inge.
Inge had Negative 15 Batter Runs.
Cabrerra had had 46 Batter Runs.
Renteria had 19 Batter Runs in one of his best seasons.
Casey had Negative 2 batter runs.
I would not expect Renteria to repeat that 19. Eight to ten is more likely. I would expect Cabrerra to do much of the same. So we are looking at an increase of 61 runs from Cabrerra, and appx 12 from Renteria. The new additions could add a total of 73 Runs over the players they are replacing.
Soooo, figuring that the rest of the team is most likely to regress back to their 2006 totals of 822 runs, good for 5th in the league...but figuring the two fine additions they had that will most likely net them an extra 73 runs, you are looking at a team that will score slightly more runs than last season(or the same). Probably between 888-900. I would guess 890 runs barring an injury to a normally healthy guy like Cabrerra.
I would not expect them to rival an all time great line up. To do that they would have to finish well ahead of the second place team in the league. They will have a hard time beating the Yankees for the top spot. The Yanks beat them last year when they over achieved.
The Yankees scored 968 runs last season!
The 1975 Reds scored 840 runs. Yes I know that is lower, but it is lower because offense was harder to come by then, and they didn't have a DH. But what is impressive is that the second place team in scored only 735 runs. The Reds were also first in runs in 1976 by a big margin, and were second in '74 and '77.
Again, I don't know how the Tigers will be considered an all time best lineup, when it looks like the Yankees will lead the league in runs for their third stragit year!!!
I would say my take is probably the most realistic sceanrio. However, there probably is a 20% chance for them to go higher, or lower. Some guys step up their production out of nowhere, while others regress out of nowhere. That is baseball.
The keys are Mags, Polanco, Granderson, and Sheffield. Set aside the fact that Sheffield is a dirt ball who tanked plays on purpose( I want all fans who beat up Clemens and Bonds for steroids to put their venom to a true villain...a guy who did steroids himself AND tanked plays on purpose. I will always take the chance to remind fans of his actions). His age, and health are a key for them.
Mags hit .360 last year! I don't know where that came from, but I would bet my house he won't do it again.
Polanco too. Granderson...I am not sold yet, and he is hurt already.
They should be a good team though.