Your Opinion: What is the collectable difference between the MS69 SAC & the MS69 NY?
braddick
Posts: 24,116 ✭✭✭✭✭
Now that both coins have sold (and I wanted to wait until they both did), what is your opinion of the upside and/or downside of each in comparision with the other?
This Thread almost started a week or so ago and I feel it's a good time to go over the fundamental differences between both these coins- PRO and CON.
I'll start:
The NY is a coin welcome in two different Registrys. The Sacawagea is as of now, an option coin in one.
The NY is a POP 01 coin by ANY service- NGC has graded other Sacawageas with the MS69 grade (although tell the advanced collector it's the same as a PCGS and you'll be laughed at).
The Goodacre Sacawagea comes nice. Maybe not "MS69" nice, but 'nice', nonetheless.
Which of the two is likely to see an POP increase?
Advantage of the Sacawagea- although speculation on my part- I've got to assume the NY went for at least twice what the Sacawagea sold for. Upside? It would have to sell for $20,000.00++ to double in value and investment although the Sacawagea would only need to see an advance to $8,000.00. Is that more likely?
The State Quarter set is more popular than the Sacawagea set? If so, the demand for the 'best of the best' may continue and the NY will hold/increase in value short term and long term- especially at the conclusion of the State quarter program (and the NY is still a single digit pop coin in 69).
If I had "Sports Player Guy" money- I'd have bought them both! Regardless, what's your opinion on these two coins?
This Thread almost started a week or so ago and I feel it's a good time to go over the fundamental differences between both these coins- PRO and CON.
I'll start:
The NY is a coin welcome in two different Registrys. The Sacawagea is as of now, an option coin in one.
The NY is a POP 01 coin by ANY service- NGC has graded other Sacawageas with the MS69 grade (although tell the advanced collector it's the same as a PCGS and you'll be laughed at).
The Goodacre Sacawagea comes nice. Maybe not "MS69" nice, but 'nice', nonetheless.
Which of the two is likely to see an POP increase?
Advantage of the Sacawagea- although speculation on my part- I've got to assume the NY went for at least twice what the Sacawagea sold for. Upside? It would have to sell for $20,000.00++ to double in value and investment although the Sacawagea would only need to see an advance to $8,000.00. Is that more likely?
The State Quarter set is more popular than the Sacawagea set? If so, the demand for the 'best of the best' may continue and the NY will hold/increase in value short term and long term- especially at the conclusion of the State quarter program (and the NY is still a single digit pop coin in 69).
If I had "Sports Player Guy" money- I'd have bought them both! Regardless, what's your opinion on these two coins?
peacockcoins
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Comments
Can you can use that Sac in any of the Modern Sets?
Just a personal note on the Goodacre Sac's. I went ahead and sent mine three into to ICG for the "special" autographs. Please, no flames. LOL! The coins have been tied up for about five months now. I have to beleive, I was planning on sending one into PCGS as soon as they got back, that a good number of those other Goodacre Sac's are still tied up in much the same way.
Larry
Dabigkahuna
The Goodacres basically "come nice". They were not a circulating coin, but specially prepared by the Mint. It is my understanding that only 2500 of the 5000 total coins have even been released at this time, but Supercoin can comment on this aspect a bit more. Of the (8) Goodacres I have handled, the first (4) submitted yielded all MS68 grades!! I have no doubt I will receive additional MS68 grade(s) from the next batch I am submitting next week. Hence, it is possible that the average grade of Goodacres might be around 67+ once more coins are submitted and we have more numbers to work with. Even if only 1 out of every 250 are MS69 quality, there is the prospect that -20- MS69's could surface. And, they could surface even faster assuming that unreleased batch of 2500 coins ever enters the market as a bulk submmission! But, at the moment, the reality is 20% of the graded Goodacres (last I checked) are MS69 quality. For these reasons, it is my opinion that "the jury is still out" on the ultimate rarity of the MS69 Goodacre.
Turning to the NY quarter, there is a track record now of nearly 25,000 MS state quarters graded and close to 90,000 regular issue Washington Quarters (silver, clad, state) graded at PCGS with the NY being the first and only coin to obtain an MS69 grade. Indeed, even in the undergrade, there is nearly 450 MS68 state quarters as compared to the -1- MS69 coin!! The NY quarter was/is a circulating coin like all state quarters have been and my personal investigation/inspection of them over the past -3- years has netted me just -3- slabbed MS68 coins from the tens of thousands of coins I have personally reviewed from mint sets, rolls and original bags. The typical NY state quarter comes scuffy and heavily bagmarked. Some forum members may recall that we needed 50 MS66 NY(p) state quarters to finish the "911 charity" coins and dozens of dedicated forum members searched rolls, bags, mint sets, etc. to try to locate those coins. We were never able to come up with a single MS66 coin from that search; I finally had to buy them already slabbed to complete the project.
An MS69 grade in a circulating state quarter is simply virtually an unheard of grade. MS68 is tough enough, as witnessed by my personal search and the stories of other forum members right here on the board. My guess is that we will see an MS69 Goodacre well before we see another MS69 NY and, perhaps before we see another MS69 of any other state quarter dated 1999-2001 (I can not speak to the quality of the upcoming 2002 coins).
While both the NY quarter and the Goodacre Dollar are important modern coins, I personally believe the NY state quarter will continue to be a much more popular and desireable coin in finest known grade. As Braddick pointed out, an MS69 quarter, especially a NY, is likely to be a highly sought after type coin (as well as a highly sought after state quarter), while there are numerous date alternatives for including an MS69 Sac in a type set right now.
Without a doubt, I would personally rather own ANY MS69 state quarter than an MS69 Goodacre Sac.
Just my own thoughts and opinions, and, like I said, with a little luck, I will have a Goodacre Sac in MS69 to offer in the weeks ahead.
Since I collect neither series, I don't look at it so much by the pcgs numbers.
I'd say that the qtr. has a bit of an advantage being a NY commem and associated (to some) with 911.
As Mitch said, the Sac seems to come nicer, therefore, with these things in mind, I'd find the qtr. more collectible due to my perceived greater "collectability".
Now taking the valuable "contrary market theory" into account, I'd probably like to have the qtr. more. And I'd take the sac, just in case it fulfilled the theory.
As I previously mentioned, this debate lacks substance, or at least the substance that seems to be intended for it, without pricing information on both coins.
I have also not seen (or even heard a description of) that NY quarter.
So, that makes it a bit silly, in my view.
But forging ahead in the dark anyway, I'll answer it from a collecting standpoint...
The Goodacre is an important coin in a series I like (and jokes about the college fund aside, one that I started for my son since they were both "born" in the same year
So, from a collecting aspect and the fact that I personally verified the Goodacre's quality myself, I'd go with it, no question.
Conversely, the state quarters have no personal significance to me, and simply don't light my fire as a collector. I have put aside a nice proof set from each year, but that's it. In particular, they don't have the appeal of an Ike (my favorite series), where the appearance differs much more between individual coins of the same date. If I were to collect state quarters, I would stick with those I view as bargains, around an MS66 grade, probably looking for mint-set coins with their nice strikes and "flashier" eye appeal. At elbow's length, you get all the bang for a tiny fraction of the buck. I simply would not be enthusiastic enough about them to enjoy the subtle differences between the higher grades. All just my personal opinion as a collector, I feel the same way about brilliant high-grade Mercury dimes, so no offense to state quarter collectors.
Now, back to the dealer hat...
From a purely monetary aspect, even not knowing anything about the NY quarter other than it says "PCGS MS69" on the label, I'd take it over the Goodacre sight-unseen in a heartbeat. And good, bad, or ugly, it'd be at auction the next day. And good, bad, or ugly, it would sell for more than $3999.
Tad, for what it's worth (that's twice now I've used that phrase- I've got to cut it out): a GEM MS68 NY state quarter is a grand sight to see! It's an interesting design (vs some of the other lackluster attempts) and the MS68 grade really brings out the coin's beauty- akin to a run of the mill MS65 Ike and a GEM MS67 (or, even MS66).
I can only imagine what the MS69 must look like. Blinding luster? Full, unapologetic strike? No marks? All of the above?
The MS69 Sacawagea would also be a gripping coin to hold and admire.
But, that is what brings me to loving the Modern series. Take a commercial roll quality Kennedy and you won't even get a shrug from me. Show me one that is a true MS67 and I'll admire it all day long.
I guess it's simply, pick your poison. State quarters. SBA's. Ikes. Kennedies. Sacawageas. Any of them in Monster high grade? Beautiful works of art.
peacockcoins
Well, if you like State Quarter's, buy the (who knows what price?) NY MS69 (or wait for the highly statistical probable next one). If you like the Sac dollar, wait for the next MS69 (at this time, much more statistically probable) next one.
Well, lets see! There were 5,000 Goodacre Sac dollars, all encapsulated by ICG (please correct me if I am wrong). Out of the first 5, there were 4 MS68's and 1 MS69. Grade School statistics will tell you that there is a mean chance of having 1,000 MS69 coins graded at this level.
Out of Billions of NY quarters, 1 has been graded MS69. Since I do not know what the end result of the Billions are (except for the Millions of Mint sets) I cannot make a statistical judgement on these (but I would bet on more)
Just my professional opinion
Edited to add an answer to the question
For the author of this thread, they should weigh the same ( I do not know the weightings of the type sets, but I would think that both would fit in his )
If someone collected State Quarters, obviously the Sac dollar would have little meaning, likewise for a Sac dollar collector with the State quarter.
For me they have different weights. The Sac Dollar is worth exactly 4 times more to me than the state quarter. While the end prices may not result in this conclusion, the question was how do I feel about them.
Yes, given the current state of information, imagine is all we can do, unless we pony up... hey! Marketing genius perhaps??
Use the same logic on the state quarters, I don't have the exact numbers, but 0.1% X billions minted = thousands of MS69s, right?
As of now, we have highly incomplete information, and very little to go on in the way of PCGS standards. All series are graded differently, and in these cases we have very few examples -- one each, to be exact -- of where they will "draw the line". Hardly good extrapolation material.
Personally, I feel the rarity of that specific grade (as far as the PCGS label), may end up being as much about PCGS policies as the coins themselves. Obviously, you've got to have a sharp coin to be a contender, but they are cutting a fine line that could make them very scarce or relatively common. A similar situation (with many more candidates) exists now with modern PR70 coins.
Still, don't get me wrong, in the shorter-term, if forced to guess I'd say more PCGS MS69 Goodacres are likely to be found than PCGS MS69 state quarters.
However, in the long-term, I will very confidently predict there will never be 5001 Goodacres graded MS69. I can't say the same for the quarters.
Tad: Just tell me one thing. Since I made all -4- Goodacres graded MS68 and -3- sold to different folks on ebay (the 4th one is waiting to be shipped, as it sold quickly for $750 after your ebay offering began to run), how have you "compared" yours to "two PCGS MS68 Goodacres"????
What does this all mean? Well, I would suggest that it means that, given a consisten grading philosophy at PCGS, there is likely to be more than one more MS69 state quarter made at PCGS as well as more than one more MS69 Goodacre dollar. I would also say that the likelihood of an MS69 Goodacre showing up at PCGS is greater in the short term (a few years) rather than the long term since there are a relatively small number of coins to search although it could be argued that if the Goodacres were dispersed very well then they are in the hands of many individual collectors and, therefore, not in a position to be efficiently pre-screened. The sheer numbers of Mint Set state quarters would lead me to believe that there will ultimately be more MS69 state quarters made at PCGS than Goodacre dollars, however, there are at least 50 issues of state quarters scheduled and this population of MS69 coins will be spread out amongst these issues.
If I had to buy one of these coins it would be the Goodacre because I have no clue as to the selling price of the state quarter. Perhaps $10,000+? Given that, I would opt for the $4,000 Goodacre simply because of the price so that if the market were to fall I wouldn't lose as much.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
FYI, you are a good guesser, there have been 23704 MS state quarters graded by PCGS.
While useful to an extent, I'm leery of putting too much stock into detailed statistical analysis, given that huge assumption that you mention, which is PCGS grading consistency.
As I mentioned on another thread, the rarity of the PCGS MS69 label is going to depend as much on how PCGS walks that fine MS68/69 line as anything else.
Unfortunately, we already have a glaring example of that. The huge difference in the number of PCGS PR70s graded "then" and "now" shows how PCGS policy blows the most well-reasoned statistical analysis out of the water.
Gee, wouldn't be trying to imply anything there would you?
Here are several explanations:
1. I'm lying.
2. You're lying.
3. I flew around the country looking at your customers' coins.
4. The PCGS pop reports, as has been the case innumerable times in the past, are wrong.
Hmmm... which could it be...
I looked into it, and the PCGS coin numbers on the two MS68s I've handled are 9584, the number for the normal 2000-P Sacagawea. Apparently they were certified before number 99584, for the Goodacre variety, was put into use. They also say "Goodacre Presentation" on the label, whereas my MS69 with the new coin number says only "Goodacre".
Interestingly, there is a third MS68 sequentially serial numbered to the two MS68s, and it is listed as a Goodacre. I'm guessing this may have been listed as a plain 2000-P and corrected only in the last few days, as I see the pop for the Goodacres has increased to 5/1.
So it appears the true pop (or truer, anyway) of the Goodacre coins is currently 7/1.
Anyway, 8 coins submitted and 7 MS68 and 1 MS69 Goodacre so far. TomB: For your information, my (4) MS68 PCGS Presentation Goodacres came from roughly 10 coins my partner considered buying before locking up those (4). No telling how the other 6 would have graded. I have 4 more going in Monday which were (4) random coins. They look like MS68 quality. Hence, my preliminary analysis suggests MS68 Goodacre coins are fairly common and MS69 may be much more obtainable than say a regular issue circulating 2001(d) Sac. I'll offer my Goodacres again on this forum once they come back from PCGS in whatever grade they made
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
As far as who got the better deal (judging strictly on the basis of potential for future appreciation), since we don't know what the buyer paid for the MS-69 NY State Quarter and even taking as a given that there is/will be a higher demand for high grade State Quarters, it's impossible to make a judgement about which transaction (using the criteria of current demand, future demand, grade rarity, potential for changes in grade rarity, etc.) is more likely to realize greater percentage of price appreciation. The Sac sold for a little under $4,000. If the MS-69 sold for $5,000 you could make a good case that the State Quarter purchase was the better of the two deals. If the State Quarter sold for $50,000 (I was going to say ridiculous figure but in this day and age you never know
A side issue; is the making of an MS-69 State Quarter more a matter of who you know rather than what you have in the way of the coin. Are you trying to tell me that in that group of four hundred and fifty MS-68's there is not one coin that matches the MS-69? Is PCGS that precise in drawing the line between 68 and 69 (given the subjective, changing nature of coin grading) that none of those 68's merit a 69? I'd also like to know what that one imperfection was that caused the coin not to merit a 70.
Item # 1327779610
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You asked the question early on that hasn't been addressed by the clash of the titans here. I used a MS-67 Millenium Sac in my Modern Set until I upgraded to a "plain" MS-68. Odds are good that the Goodacre MS-69 will fit in the Modern MS Type Set and would have got you another point in the standings.
Keith