Are there figures for the highest return to lowest...

percyb

Has anyone figured out/published the Compound Annual Growth Rate on US coins according to type and grade? Does such a study exist?

Dawg144

Closest thing I know of is the
PCGS 3000, but that's just an index by type...

I hope someone can help out here; that would be really interesting.

percyb

<< <i>Closest thing I know of is the
PCGS 3000, but that's just an index by type...

I hope someone can help out here; that would be really interesting. >>



Dawg,
This is helpful. I wonder what the index is comprised of.

Can anyone else chime in about Cumulative Price Appreciation?

percyb

It's probably a good idea to keep an eye on the coin index as it doesn't necessarily follow the gold and silver indices.

ComponentsofPCGS3000

SomekindofChart

RedTiger

The greysheet folks publish charts. Some coin investment firms publish studies that show incredible rates of return. The caveat for these reports being they usually take the prices for BU back when there were only three grades in the Redbook and extrapolate them to current MS65 prices. Only maybe 1% to 5% of the old BUs would make MS65 today, most would be AU to MS63. A collector with a keen eye could have hypothetically bought the cream and gotten MS65s for a small premium over BU price way back then. However, the average BU rolls included all the current AUs as well as a good many cleaned and whizzed coins.

Grade inflation and changing standards are also a factor for the PCGS 3000.

Only for coins of known provenance that can be clearly tracked, can an apples to apples rate of return be found. The current market frenzy and new breed of buyer, would currently show a very high rate of return on many of these top coins. Personally, I don't think the next ten or twenty years will be kind to the newbie buyers paying top money today.

percyb

<< <i>The greysheet folks publish charts. Some coin investment firms publish studies that show incredible rates of return. The caveat for these reports being they usually take the prices for BU back when there were only three grades in the Redbook and extrapolate them to current MS65 prices. Only maybe 1% to 5% of the old BUs would make MS65 today, most would be AU to MS63. A collector with a keen eye could have hypothetically bought the cream and gotten MS65s for a small premium over BU price way back then. However, the average BU rolls included all the current AUs as well as a good many cleaned and whizzed coins.

Grade inflation and changing standards are also a factor for the PCGS 3000.

Only for coins of known provenance that can be clearly tracked, can an apples to apples rate of return be found. The current market frenzy and new breed of buyer, would currently show a very high rate of return on many of these top coins. Personally, I don't think the next ten or twenty years will be kind to the newbie buyers paying top money today. >>



Thanks and good points!!The price appreciation of any commodity....be it apples, corn, or coin, can be measured in general terms, not specific pieces of corn...lol though.. What started me on this issue is the published returns on Paper money, which happens to be minimal. There's little or no incentive to collect paper money. See dbrcurrecyratesofreturn
I suspect the same is true for most coinage, except that there's bull market in gold and silver, currently. But "rare" coins have escalated in price as we all know here beyond that of the appreciation of gold or silver over the past 100 years. But I'd like a view a closer analysis if one exists....it could be they're being hidden??

DaveG

I skimmed through the currency article you liked to and it seems to be about the number of notes known, not their prices.

If you're interested in the same sort of thing for coins, I guess the Pop reports from PCGS/NGC would be about the only things you could look at.

As far as studies of price appreciation, I don't think there are any that are really reliable - what I've seen has been backward-generated (i.e., a study done in 2000 of appreciation from, say, the 1960's, using Red Book prices) or just tracks some heavyweight auction appearances.

percyb

<< <i>I skimmed through the currency article you liked to and it seems to be about the number of notes known, not their prices.

If you're interested in the same sort of thing for coins, I guess the Pop reports from PCGS/NGC would be about the only things you could look at.

As far as studies of price appreciation, I don't think there are any that are really reliable - what I've seen has been backward-generated (i.e., a study done in 2000 of appreciation from, say, the 1960's, using Red Book prices) or just tracks some heavyweight auction appearances. >>



You're right. The data is for rarity but they do then suggest value tied to the rarity, which as time passes, becomes more rather than less. I'm looking for data that marks the actual value increase. The pops reports are similar, as you noted, to the CAGR for paper.