Silver coming out of the woodwork....
garsmith
Posts: 5,894 ✭✭
For the last month or so there has only been one or two rolls per week on eBay- now the bay is flooded with rolls for sale. Looks like they may have waited a little to long the bubble has burst.
Maybe it's time to pick up my roll of 08's now
Maybe it's time to pick up my roll of 08's now
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Maybe I'm looking in the wrong place?
Judging by the prices being obtained, I think it's a case of increased demand (for physical silver) bringing out increased supply.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Judging by the prices being obtained, I think it's a case of increased demand (for physical silver) bringing out increased supply. >>
True I already got outbid on one, but at least there are smoe there listed low enough for me to even bother putting a bid in on.
The people with the BIN's over $400 are trying to find smoone that hasn't seen the drop in the silver market.
"I am sorry you are unhappy with the care you recieved, is their anything I can do for you right now, how about some high speed lead therapy?" - A qoute from my wife's nursing forum
"I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." – Thomas Jefferson
to the physical real world supply. Try to buy physical silver in the real world
and you'll see the true price of silver.
http://news.silverseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1206119500.php
(If you don't hold it, you don't own it)
Three more major silver dealers are reported to be out of silver today:
The U.S. Mint, Kitco, and Monex. This, on top of the major dealers yesterday,
Amark, Perth Mint, CNI Numismatics, and APMEX, all reported sold out.
Further, nearly all of Canada is reported to be out of silver, from Vancouver to Toronto.
This is unprecedented, and is a perfect case of market manipulation in the
paper market at COMEX and other futures exchanges to see silver prices
continue to drop down to below $17/oz. today.
Paper promises can be created endlessly, but real silver cannot.
I've been noticing rolls of 90% silver coinage progressing higher over the past few months, but not really spiking. It seems to have been most dramatic in rolls of Proof Silver coins recently, but I don't see that as having a direct correlation to spot silver.
Three more major silver dealers are reported to be out of silver today: The U.S. Mint, Kitco, and Monex. This, on top of the major dealers yesterday, Amark, Perth Mint, CNI Numismatics, and APMEX, all reported sold out. Further, nearly all of Canada is reported to be out of silver, from Vancouver to Toronto.
If this is really true, it almost certainly has to manifest itself in the spot market as industrial users take delivery, doesn't it? If this is the Big One in terms of a physical shortage of silver, we should see something soon in the spot pricing of silver, shouldn't we?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>This is unprecedented, and is a perfect case of market manipulation in the
paper market at COMEX and other futures exchanges to see silver prices
continue to drop down to below $17/oz. today.
Paper promises can be created endlessly, but real silver cannot. >>
Can you expand on this for the slower kids in back of the class?
"Inspiration exists, but it has to find you working" Pablo Picasso
<< <i>
If this is really true, it almost certainly has to manifest itself in the spot market as industrial users take delivery, doesn't it? If this is the Big One in terms of a physical shortage of silver, we should see something soon in the spot pricing of silver, shouldn't we?
Ted butler has some good insight into this scam;
Linky
Before getting into the heart of today’s message, some specific updates on silver. First, there were no big changes in the market structure of silver and gold COMEX futures, as portrayed by the most recent Commitment of Traders Report (COT). In other words, the historic concentrated short positions continue to exist and even expand.
For positions held as of March 11, the four largest traders hold more than 310 million ounces of silver net short, while the eight largest traders now hold a record net short position of over 400 million ounces. In terms of days of world production, or any objective comparison to any other commodity, the silver concentrated net short position continues to be "off the charts." An interesting development is the recent buying by the raptors (the 9+ commercials), which has the effect of isolating the big 4 and 8 traders (the T. rexes.), this accentuates the uneconomic nature of the concentrated short position. After all, if the short sale of silver was such an attractive trade, why would so few commercials be involved?
Even compared to gold, where the four largest traders now hold a larger concentrated gold net short position than at any point in history, at 17.4 million ounces, the silver short position is unprecedented and, quite frankly, an abomination. I don’t know how the regulators at the CFTC and NYMEX can live with themselves for allowing this obvious manipulation to continue. And it is shameful to think the government regulators swore an oath to uphold the law. (News that the Chicago Merc has formally agreed to absorb the NYMEX, brings another party into the manipulation. More on that in the future.)
As previously written, the epic concentrated short position in COMEX silver is a good news/bad news situation. The bad news is that it explains the depressed relative price of silver and accounts for much of the recent price volatility, as the big shorts struggle to create sell-offs with the hope of buying back some of their positions. The good news is two-fold, that it affords the purchase at today’s subsidized low price and will serve as a powerful source of buying on the upside someday. But when? A better question is what may cause the shorts to retreat?
The most logical circumstance that could cause the big shorts to run to cover on the upside is a physical shortage in silver. Remember, the shorts are obligated to deliver real metal, if and when called upon to do so by the longs. This is the shorts’ Achilles’ Heel, that will doom them some day. It is the combination of the extreme concentrated short position and the potential of a physical shortage that portends explosive price action in silver (as distinguished from gold, where no actual industrial shortage appears plausible.)
Of course, by the time we get clear evidence of a pronounced shortage in silver, it is most probable that will already be reflected in the price. In other words, it will probably be too late to buy silver at "reasonable" prices. Therefore, it would seem logical to conclude that we must look for subtle clues that might suggest a physical silver shortage may be upon us. With the caveat that subtle can also be misleading, I think I see two such clues currently.
The first involves recent sales of Silver Eagles from the US Mint. For the first time in my memory, the US Mint could not keep up with demand for Silver Eagles, or, in simple terms, "ran out" of them recently. There is no doubt in my mind that this occurred as a direct result of the article mailed to IRI clients in November written by my friend and mentor, Izzy, "A Beautiful Idea." http://www.investmentrarities.com/12-03-07.html (There were actually two articles by him, including one about the housing/mortgage market that contains the single best idea I have heard to help ease the pain of the housing debacle.)
After Izzy’s article, the Mint sold more Silver Eagles over the next three months than it ever sold before. Then, sales fell off a cliff in February, only to soar to the highest sales ever in March, although the month is only half over. That pattern and informed sources close to the Mint confirm that the Mint ran out of the silver blanks needed to produce the coins, due to unexpected demand. That demand was, obviously, brought about by Izzy’s article. Please keep in mind, that there was no spike in Gold Eagle sales during this time period, so it is clear that this was a silver-only phenomenon.
While the US Mint running out of Silver Eagles, due to a surge in demand, does not prove a broad silver shortage, it does highlight and suggest tightness in the physical distribution supply lines. And it does seem to add credence to Izzy’s prediction that someday the Mint will stop minting Silver Eagles so as not to aggravate any future silver shortage. After all, if they can’t keep up with demand now, how will they keep up in a future known time of shortage?
The second "clue" pointing towards a possible silver shortage has been the pace of metal deposited in the big silver ETF, SLV. Unlike many, I’ve always thought that SLV was on the up and up. I did doubt early on that this ETF would come into existence because of the obvious impact it would have on price, but I always assumed that, if it came into existence, it would be legitimate. That is, I never doubted that the silver they claimed to own did exist and was held by them. While I reserve the right to change my mind, my thoughts were reinforced when Barclays Global Investors accepted my recent public suggestion that they openly list the serial numbers on each 1000 ounce bar of silver they held. Silver held in one’s personal possession or in storage allocated by specific serial numbers is still the best way to own silver, but for large institutional investors, the SLV was fine. Especially when compared to the alternative, which was unbacked bank silver certificates or nothing at all.
My only concern was that there appeared to be times when, on a short-term basis, the fund did not reflect all the silver bought in share form. In other words, due to the logistics of getting physical silver into the custodian’s vaults, not all the recently purchased shares had full metal backing, but were represented by short sales of the shares. I did not, and still do not, consider this a serious problem, as long as the amounts and time lapsed were not excessive.
So I’ve taken to watching volume and price action in the SLV ETF in order to anticipate the amount of silver likely to be deposited on a short-term basis. Based upon my observations, as unscientific as they may appear, the amount of silver that "should" have been deposited very recently is much larger and has taken much longer to show up than any previous time. If my observations are close to being accurate, the most plausible explanation is that the silver was not available for immediate deposit in London.
Further, if true, it may mean silver in industry-standard quantity is tight overall, since silver is very much a fungible commodity. When silver becomes tight enough that industrial consumers must wait too long for its delivery, the long-anticipated industrial user inventory buying panic may be at hand. Once that starts, there will be no putting out the silver fire until it burns out by way of higher prices. Much higher prices.
I know many were disappointed in the weak price action in silver in light of the extraordinary news concerning the bailout of Bear Stearns and the financial system in general. It is important to remember that short-term price changes in silver (and other commodities, including gold) are almost solely dependent on paper trading on the COMEX (and other exchanges) and not on real world supply/demand fundamentals. It is hard for me to imagine any significant non-leveraged physical silver liquidation taking place currently. It is easy to imagine possible leveraged paper silver liquidation on engineered weak prices.
More Ted Butler articles
So I’ve taken to watching volume and price action in the SLV ETF in order to anticipate the amount of silver likely to be deposited on a short-term basis. Based upon my observations, as unscientific as they may appear, the amount of silver that "should" have been deposited very recently is much larger and has taken much longer to show up than any previous time. If my observations are close to being accurate, the most plausible explanation is that the silver was not available for immediate deposit in London.
Very interesting, I must say..............and it does seem to make sense.
I knew it would happen.