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MPL pricing??
pennyannie
Posts: 3,929 ✭✭✭
How do you arrive at the value/price? I am interested in the 1910 pr63rb pcgs holdered Lincoln offered at scarsdale coins for the low price of 975 dollars. PCGS price guide is one half of that price. It is 4 times the price listed at greysheet. I have never dealt with Scarsdale coin before, and have no idea if this is firm or not. I personally think this is 300 dollars to high based on others that i have bought recently. I would like some ideas of how the MPL prices are arrived at other than those that have the coins get to name the prices. Looking at pop numbers and the like it is hard for me to see any relationship in pricing. I generally collect on the lower end (proof 61-64) looking for nice eye appeal from 12 inches away than technical merit thru a 10x loupe. The 1909 vdb has gone plum crazy or is that really the prices these proofs should bring given the number of Lincoln collectors verse the number of matte proofs availible? I think the matte finish is the reason these proofs do not command super premiums, but that is the main attraction for me in collecting them (matte finish) I have been chasing these mattes for well over a year now and i am just now seeing a jump in price at other places besides ebay. Some of the price jump is due to the up coming 100 years of Lincoln and the buzz around it most likely. I have not seen much of a change in the pricing of the Lincoln proofs from 1936 to 1942, in fact i think they are going lower. I have picked up 8 proofs from 1938 to 42 in pcgs, ngc slabs for well under 50 dollars in 63 red and around 50 dollars for 64 reds in the last 2 months from heritage ( i bought a 42 proof 63 red for 26 dollars, by the time it arrived at my door heritage added 27 dollars more for commision, tax and shipping) , david lawrence and a couple others. Ebay is the highest priced venue i have found when trying to buy these proofs. I personally think that the guys here have had a big impact on the current prices over at ebay, but not sure if this site has impacted the prices at other sites/stores. I would greatly appreciate your thoughts on current MPL pricing and what you think the future holds for the MPL's. Thanks, Mark
Mark
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
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Sister (or brother), I'll try to answer your question as well as I can. I'm sure the other brothers will do better though. Higher end mattes or any coin for that matter are priced by who wants them the most. There's a fine line here. A dealer must price his coin low enough so that it will sell yet high enough so that he can make a profit. It's up to him to determine where that price falls and it's up to the collector to determine if that price is right.
If you will go around the internet looking for mattes, you will notice that no dealer keeps a MPL very long. Right now they are very popular and are flying out the dealer's window. When they show up at auction, they garner a lot of interest. When this happens the price must surely go up until that demand is met. As a collector, I may not like it but that's the way it is.
As I am retired, I spend a lot of time every day hunting for MPLs. Plenty of other brothers are doing the same thing because they are usually gone when I call. There's a lot of competition out there for these beauties.
The total mintage of MPLs is a very small 15,314 and there are less than 5,000 of those slabbed. What other series can boast of such a small number? As you can see, with such a small amount of MPLs, it doesn't take much collector interest to move them up.
Right now MPLs are hot. The beauty of it is that you the collector (and nobody else) get to make the decision whether the price is too high or not. Remember this, trees do not grow to the moon and neither will MPLs. Sooner or later MPLs will reach a plateau and will take a break.
There are a lot of MPL collectors on the boards right now and they are a fine bunch of brothers. I'm sure some of them will be giving their opinions also.
By the way, welcome aboard.
i'll chime in noting the true values of matty's are still "under construction".being lincolns holds high honors in collector base and then collectors get a feel for seeking low mintage coins...something happens there in the red book at those matty mintages.
mind you demand is on the rise but supply isn't.true current price levels are bringing them out but those buying like me are squirreling them away...long haul.i too cheerish the 36 to 42 but just about all those survive and trade day n night where matty's go through rutts.watch watersports weekly update on availability and understand that is from a large search by him and currently 2 dates are black this week.
i've paid 1.5 times pcgs guide price only to see guide catch it before i finished terms and currently guide price shows i'm in the green.but i look at matty's beyond the $$$ factor as they are a niche in one of the most popular series that everyone can't enjoy and in the future i'm not going to be saying that "could of or should of...inside"
dang on a by the way...you have a vdb...congrats
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
The Scarsdale coin has been in their inventory since at least 12/12/07. Even if you were successful and sent it in for a regrade and got it back as 64 R&B it would still not match what in the PCGS guide as to what you would have bought it for. It is also one of the most available of the MPL’s. I am sure with this information you would have a chance of negotiation. But it may be only $25. If the coin could be returned, you could at least buy it and send t back if you do not like it. One other factor is of course how long you plan on holding on to it. If it’s forever, BUY the coin, it will be worth what you pay in a few years.
WS
I could write about 5 pages on the subject.
As I write these few paragraphs I know of two 1914 PCGS PR65BN coins that are available for sale on dealers sites. One is $1,750 and the other is $3,100!!. Does this mean that one should go out and buy the $1,750 coin? no, I don't think so. Unless you could view both of the coins, there is a chance that the $3,100 coin is a better value than the $1,750 coin, how? because of the eye appeal factor. MPL cents can have a great swing in value because of this factor affecting the value of these coins even though they are the same date, same grade and same color designation on the holder.
I can say that after studying all of my past sale archives that if this 1910 MPL cent you have mentioned is a nice coin for the grade? then the price the dealer is asking is very fair based on some recent sales I have observed. They key is to be able to look at a coin and know if it is of a quality nature for the grade. That is learned by looking at these coins so you learn to identify a coin that is solid for the grade when you encounter it.
If that is not possible, you need an honest dealer you can rely on who will give you an honest opinion on the quality of the coin vs same type coins on the market when you order the coin from the dealer.
Hope this helps.
let me add: I just listed the $1,750 1914 PCGS PR65BN coin on my website which is an upgrade from a PR64BN. I think the coin is just average for the grade and not PQ in anyway. So I have priced it accordingly.
Images below to show PQ vs ave quality! Top image ave quality, Bottom image PQ, Both coins are graded PCGS PR65BN by PCGS! I have owned both coins.
Here is one more example of why the MPL cent market pricing can be hard to put your finger on. Both of these sales happen in the last two months involving a couple more cents from the 1914 date.
Heritage Auction: February 2008 1914 MPL cent graded PCGS PR66RED sells for $2,760 while the PCGS price guide is at $4,500
BWRC retail sales: March 2008 1914 MPL cent graded PCGS PR66RB sells for $9,000!!
you all make fine points and the member who started this string asked the most basic question (but not an easy question to answer clearly). I see it from a buyer's perspective as well, as I just purchased one of those 1914 mattes from Brian Wangner that appears in the photo, so have given the idea of value some thought. I have posted in the string because I wanted to share my thoughts with the group, as we all look at the issue from many perspectives, so I hope to add mine. The issue of coin value is a good one to start with, and I think that there is an interesting sideline of valuation that relates to MPLs very specifically and Lincolns generally regarding value. That is the concept that some one once telling me generally that "RD" was good value, and "BN" was not, and that stereotype perpetuated itself in my mind, even though the truth is much different at times for MPLs. I think this "perception flaw" has happenned to many collectors, and even graders. But now because of the sgortage in MPLs, and interest in the series from a growing collector base, that while the value and the reality (perception flaw) have not yet corected, I think we are in the middle of actually watching the market correct itself (you are right, Curly, trees do not grow to the moon ... but Redwoods do go up pretty high!).
Brian, your specific photo examples regarding MPL values using a variety of 1914 MPL coins and the different designations (BR, RB, RD) as illustrations are powerful and make an important point to collectors, investors, and the coin grading companies.
It's a counter-intuitive point about value in Matte Proof Lincolns generally, and the entire red, red-brown and brown high to low value perception specifically, that actual coin prices (and supposed quality) fly in the face of published PCGS values based on the designations RD, RB and BN. Some high-level coins appear to not be valued with any seeming accuracy, and the other way around too with some marginal coins that are priced seemingly high, because of the randomness of the color designations. We have all heard the advice that collectors should buy 'the coins', not just the plastic holders that are really nothing more than value-related letters and numbers typed on them. Your examples are illustrative of the challenge that the grading companies need to somehow dynamically address in the color designation of MPL coins, if they are to be respected and bring more people to the market with confidence. But how does one 'quantify' eye appeal and a beautiful coin with a perceived 'low' color designation, (BN, RB) compared to a perceived higher grade or ‘higher’ designation (like Red, presumably), as in truth, as judged by the average coin person, an 'ugly' BN coin oftentimes seems to be a better coin then a supposedly 'higher' RD coin. I guess the question may be asked: is their another way to judge a coin that's a little more specific than RD, RB or BN? We can judge from PR60-PR70 (even though that is sometimes open to interpretation), but where does Brown end and Red begin? And how is "eye appeal"; [coin beauty] quantified. We just seem to 'know it when we see it", to use an old Supreme Court reference!
And Matte Proof Lincolns are a unique and great example of this phenomenon in the real-world market, because they are maybe the only U.S. copper coins that possess intentionally-created matte surfaces (as opposed to ‘brilliant’ surfaces, which appear to tone naturally in a different way). I wonder how other countries, like France, which inspired the Matte Proof process here in the United States, grade their coins?
I also compare value and how it is handled in other industries (or how about how Heritage Auctions handles other collector items - a Babe Ruth baseball, as an example), and how market prices are developed and sustained when the comparables are from a low number of actual collectables. Real estate is another example, with the difference between comparables used when judging almost-unique properties). Sight-unseen sales do not really exist in the art world, either, for example, by and large, for example. And these Matte Proof Lincoln Cents we are discussing, based on the exceeding low mintage numbers, the number of specimens actually available, and the unique beauty (or non-beauty!) are almost like specific art pieces, which, as we all know, can (and are) literally 'numbered' and sold exclusively in limited numbers.
Would an art collector buy a Picasso painting because it was in a nice frame, but has an acid stain that basically de-valued the entire work? That would be considered highly abnormal. But we are seeing an example of this happening in the Matte Proof world with some seeming regularity. I find it very tough to find 'nice MPL pieces', for almost any price. The condition rarity element is seen with the 1909VDB to a highest degree, but not too much farther then that in other series dates. But I think that is going to start to change for other dates as well, as the reality of low mintage meets collector demand.
Why do grading companies, like PCGS, as only one example, and not to pick on any company in particular, not consider some type of weighted 'eye-appeal' analysis and actual coin availability when judging a coin that may be a brown or red-brown, but utterly breathtaking in it's beauty?
I think to maintain a static evaluation value process, were "Red" is always very systematically more valuable then a "Brown" coin, for example, lends less certainty to the market, and personally think this issue will keep the industry contained until the issue is adequately address.
Maybe the grading companies (if they do not already), should encourage dealers and buyers to report private transactions, and not just those sales made at auctions. With computerization, I would have to think this is do-able.
So, that payment I made for that 1914 PGCS PR66 RB ($9,000.00) seems questionable if you look at the PGCS price guide (listed at $2,400.00), but if the market can be adequately and better quantified, I'm sure a coin of that actual rarity, and beauty may be worth that $9,000, or even much more. Because if the truth be told, how or where can you find that level of coin? How many actually exist?
Like a work of art, there are only so many extant and intact, which remain original and have maintained their beauty. I think that those factors must be reflected in the value analysis for our industry to grow and/or thrive, and offer a realistic investment opportunity.
I hope these comments provoke my fellow collectors to relate their experiences.
Sincerely,
Duane Blake
Blake Acre Matte Proof Set
http://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/publishedset.aspx?s=41931&ac=1
I appreciate all the thoughts and opinions of the guys that have replied.
Just a idea since i am bored at the moment, how about making BWRC the king of MPL's and do something like personal "CAC" for Matte Proof Lincolns like is done for the indian head cents and a few other series out there. I would perfer gold stickers
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
I appreciate all the thoughts and opinions of the guys that have replied.
Just a idea since i am bored at the moment, how about making BWRC the king of MPL's and do something like personal "CAC" for Matte Proof Lincolns like is done for the indian head cents and a few other series out there. I would perfer gold stickers
Mark,
Thanks for the compliment. I just consider myself a dealer who loves quality MPL cents. When I buy a coin I screen it for quality so my customers get some of the best inventory on the market place. Occasionally I will have an average quality coin which I will price according and tell my customer that it is not top of the line. Then again, when I rant and rave about a certain MPL the "invisible" BWRC seal of approval is in place for that coin.
Rick Snow and I co-founded "Eagle Eye Photo Seal" back in 1995 so I understand the importance of the service but I do not want to start another sticker service for MPL's. Can you imagine if another dealer started stickering all Lincoln Cents? and I were to sticker MPL's. A MPL cent could possibly have 3 stickers covering the label. CAC, BWRC another Lincoln cent specialist seal? In my old age I would like to keep my life simple and leave things as they are. I am happy with that. (this might also go for writing a book. A friend and collector has been nudging me about that)
But, back to the discussion of a more appropriate or precise grading system for MPLs. If we were to have a sticker, how about, and better yet, let's have "a certificate of description", along with precise photos, that may be helpful in distinguishing the particular look or beauty of a certain coin (and hence value, as we have discussed). The coin writers who describe auction pieces do this all the time, but with a clear bias. Why not consider this – “certificates of description” (including photographs) and the ‘holdered’ coin itself from an unbiased grading service, like PCGS or NGC. Something more accurate then a 'star' or the letters 'PQ'. It helps in the buy-back guarantee as well, because the descriptions of what consumers are buying are even less sight-unseen and more descriptive. More information means more ‘certainty’ about what is being purchased, so in theory, fewer buy-backs needed from the industry. This 'certificate of authenticity" is done all the time in the sports memorabilia venue, although usually without much description.
Relating specifically to MPLs, they are almost always referred to as "Matte" proofs, to distinguish them from "Brilliant" proofs. What I'm wondering is this: while all Lincoln Cent proofs between the years 1909-1916 are technically called Matte, the surfaces are clearly different for not between different years (see generally 1910 v. 1916), but the general look of the coins themselves are also sometimes dramatically different even between an obverse and reverse of the same coin (see 1914 blaster coin, above). In the multiple U.S. gold coinage proof series of the same time period, the distinction is always made between "Matte", "Satin", and "Sand-Blast" proof surfaces. Why do they not do that with the Lincolns? That distinguishing comment, along with a finer (more exact) color designation system, may be helpful in assessing "eye appeal".
And also, if the rims are such an important aspect of diagnosing a 'matte' from a business strike, why not create a holder that allows one to see the Matte Proof rims with some clarity. In my mind, that not only adds to the diagnostic, but the beauty of the coin as well. And less business strikes get holder or mis-graded as proof. Again, fewer buy-backs.
If we speak as a group, I do believe the graders and grading services will give these points some consideration, as they add more certainty to the grading process, and thereby increase the value of their services (and hence, company value and longevity!).
What are our collective thoughts on these points?
<< <i>
But, back to the discussion of a more appropriate or precise grading system for MPLs. If we were to have a sticker, how about, and better yet, let's have "a certificate of description", along with precise photos, that may be helpful in distinguishing the particular look or beauty of a certain coin (and hence value, as we have discussed). The coin writers who describe auction pieces do this all the time, but with a clear bias. Why not consider this – “certificates of description” (including photographs) and the ‘holdered’ coin itself from an unbiased grading service, like PCGS or NGC. Something more accurate then a 'star' or the letters 'PQ'. It helps in the buy-back guarantee as well, because the descriptions of what consumers are buying are even less sight-unseen and more descriptive. More information means more ‘certainty’ about what is being purchased, so in theory, fewer buy-backs needed from the industry. This 'certificate of authenticity" is done all the time in the sports memorabilia venue, although usually without much description.
Relating specifically to MPLs, they are almost always referred to as "Matte" proofs, to distinguish them from "Brilliant" proofs. What I'm wondering is this: while all Lincoln Cent proofs between the years 1909-1916 are technically called Matte, the surfaces are clearly different for not between different years (see generally 1910 v. 1916), but the general look of the coins themselves are also sometimes dramatically different even between an obverse and reverse of the same coin (see 1914 blaster coin, above). In the multiple U.S. gold coinage proof series of the same time period, the distinction is always made between "Matte", "Satin", and "Sand-Blast" proof surfaces. Why do they not do that with the Lincolns? That distinguishing comment, along with a finer (more exact) color designation system, may be helpful in assessing "eye appeal".
why not create a holder that allows one to see the Matte Proof rims with some clarity. >>
Duane,
Your ideas are GREAT for us collectors who love MPL's and collect them. How MANY of us do you think there are? If I said 500 ACTIVE I think I might be overstating. The point is WHO would support the cost of implementing your ideas. Having a TPG provide detail descriptions about Matte, Satin and Sandblast MPL's would be nice, but how many of us would be willing to pay say $100 for each one? And that rim visability is currently there for the Presidential Dollars. But to create a similiar slab for JUST the MPL's would again cost MONEY. Who would pay for this? Any other 19MM coins you know of in which the visability of the rim is important to collectors? Please don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to spoil your dream. It's just like so many other things we all want. IT IS ALL ABOUT THE MONEY. Just my opinion. Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
All good points, and well-taken. Being new, I've become intoxicated with MPL
It will hopefully not subside too soon!
Take care,
Duane