POLL: how low will silver go
moonshine
Posts: 1,039 ✭✭
how low will silver go before it starts heading back up again.
0
Comments
WTF!
<< <i>BTT - I am shocked that it is freefalling as 'fast' as it is. >>
Selloffs tend to occur much more rapidly than runups, whether stocks, commodities or real estate.
amazing you cant buy silver bars, rounds, bullion in any real quantity from ANY of the major metals dealers. They are SOLD OUT.
Hence a disconnect has already occurred betw the value of physical silver and the so-called paper silver or silver futures contracts. The guys with the real thing don't want to give it up at these low prices to the big specs that forced silver down. Let them keep their paper shares and not the real thing. One dealer mentioned to me today that he is being offered silver at $1.50 over spot. The massive manipulation of both the gold and silver markets makes it very difficult to say when either will or have bottomed. It's also odd that generic gold hardly budged during this 10% drop in gold. Maybe that's coming or maybe the gold holders figured they've had enough manipulation and aren't going to drop their sell prices on numismatic gold coins just because paper share sellers or naked shorts dumped the market by 10%.
roadrunner
<< ... " prices are beginning to stabilize here, and probably will start rebounding again sooner rather than later." >>
I tend to agree with this for several reasons and view the current decline as an Opportunity to get on board.
As the old adage goes, "Buy low - sell high!"
Many PM investors saw opportunity to realize Profit and or, to diversify - they sold High only to turn right around and buy again on the low side. (Hedging)
I think anyone that has been studying the PM Market knows exactly what is going on.
Don't wait till a given Metal peeks, to buy - you will have only exposed yourselves to unnecessary risk, HOPING for it to continue to climb.
Those that buy low and sell high (provided it <any PM> does climb) have little to risk even if the metal plateaus or experiences a gradual climb.
Try not to go "all in". Buy within a zone that is comfortable to you so that you can ride out the highs & lows.
JMHO & works for me, BTW!
Life offers no Guarantees.
Fly by the seat of your pants and go for what you know.
Interesting disconnect right now between physical and "paper" silver prices.. never been quite so wide before.
<< <i>$3.75 per ounce.
Interesting disconnect right now between physical and "paper" silver prices.. never been quite so wide before. >>
Silly post. Are you dreaming or simply on drugs? Or both?
<< <i>...all the way to the flo' >>
I'm sure you believe that.
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
You seem to understand the basic concept of "naked shorting," but there
are not currently any "futures contracts" involved in the trading of the
ETF SLV.
The SEC still requires SLV to maintain physical inventory equal to the value
of the share float (less commissions and fees). You can read the SLV
prospectus on your brokerage site. GLD is governed the same.
At today's close, ALL of the popular sites had SLV and GLD shares available
to short. These are legitimately borrowed shares and are are NOT "naked."
Retail traders cannot easily short naked because legitimate brokerages
do not allow it.
"Naked Shorts" are instituted by small/large Market-Makers (MMs). They are
exempt from regulations that confirm legitimately borrowed shares PRIOR
to the entering of a short-sale order.
Under its rules, the SEC maintains a Reg. SHO list which details Failure
To Deliver (FTD) information on traded shares. The list can be short-circuited
by corrupt MMs, but in the case of SLV/GLD there is no evidence that
has happened recently. The list can be seen at shortsqueeze.com; it is
updated frequently
SLV/GLD shares tanked because there were MANY more sellers than buyers
on Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday.
Physical silver is in short supply at many dealers. The hype caused little
retailers to buy just enough to assure that they would be the bagholders
on this round of dumping. If prices continue to decline, supplies will increase
as the little guys take their losses. If prices rise, supplies will ALSO increase
as the little guys try to get some of their money back.
I have no idea where the price of SLV/GLD will be in a month or six-months.
I do know that cash is very hard for most folks to raise; this tells me the
likely trend for the metals is DOWN.
I fully participated in the hype of 1980, and this market is the same rip-off circus
it was then.
Little retailers need to be cautious as the contagion of the pump-and-dump
PM-scamsters spreads through the land. It can be deadly to your finances.
DISCLAIMER: I closed all of my SLV/GLD positions on Monday and Tuesday. I
am NOT short ANY PM. I will go long SLV below $12; and, I have no idea when
that price will be visited.
It would probably require a recession of sufficient magnitude to cause
population declines for silver to fall under this level for any lenght of time.
New support is forming at $16.50 but this might be tested once or twice
more before the bull market resumes.
If you had to hold for 5 years, which would you rather have:
$1,700 U.S. at 4 percent interest, or 100 ounces of silver?
I would go with the silver.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>If you had to hold for 5 years, which would you rather have:
$1,700 U.S. at 4 percent interest, or 100 ounces of silver?
I would go with the silver. >>
/////////////////////////////////////////////////
Ditto.
And, everybody should have at least that much physical silver;
regardless of what the day/day price is.
BUT, I and many others have been placing far bigger bets. The
prudence of those wagers went away. It is time to watch for
awhile.
If I had it my way, stupidity would be painful!
<< <i>am I the only one who thinks we'll see $4 again soon? >>
Probably
<< <i>
<< <i>$3.75 per ounce.
Interesting disconnect right now between physical and "paper" silver prices.. never been quite so wide before. >>
Silly post. Are you dreaming or simply on drugs? Or both? >>
neither. I'm just insane.
<< <i>If you had to hold for 5 years, which would you rather have:
$1,700 U.S. at 4 percent interest, or 100 ounces of silver?
I would go with the silver. >>
seems like an easy question, and an easy answer. Contrarians always are able to get into things when everybody thinks they suck, though, and make a killing. Even silver bulls think the price is going to go down... telling, to say the least.
Regardless, I hope all the paper silver traders, long and short, get slaughtered. Time to end the fractional reserving of commodities.
If you had been keeping up with other Gold & Economic threads you would have seen that naked short selling is a topic frequently mentioned. The concept is well understood and a primary mechanism of the PPT/EST over the past 10-15 years. Even though there are SEC rules on various forms of market trading (such as delivering stock to the purchaser....FTD for ex.) much of it rarely happens. The SEC is in cahoots with the Banks/PPT and could care less what fundamental trading rules they violate. The SEC was all for removing the link between banks handling their own investments starting in the early 1990's. This unleashed the derivatives nightmare we live with today. It was a lesson learned following the Great Depression but the banks wanted the whole pie again...and got it. I wouldn't touch SLV or GLD with a 10 foot pole. They are the creation of the gold/silver cartel (shorts) and a major tool in their fight to keep metals controlled. Where else can you get sheeple to put up money for bullion that the cartel can use to dump prices? Sheer genious. Barclay's is underfoot to the larger banks (via derivatives risk) and more than happy to work in cahoots with them rather than risk being the next BSCos. Don't believe for a second that they keep 100% or anything close to that in real reserves or follow through on delivering silver. This is mostly paper trading hands. Bear Stearns was supposedly holding silver for its clients a short time back and was caught with their pants down. Why should Barclay's be any different?
At today's close, ALL of the popular sites had SLV and GLD shares available to short. These are legitimately borrowed shares and are are NOT "naked." Retail traders cannot easily short naked because legitimate brokerages do not allow it.
Of course they did, it's all paper. But real silver was not to be found, unless you wanted to pay up to a 10% premium to spot. Tells you something about silver futures and SLV vs physical silver in hand.
Just selling SLV paper is far different than the real thing. If real silver had to be delivered on all trades, SLV would empty out pretty quick.
"Naked Shorts" are instituted by small/large Market-Makers (MMs). They are exempt from regulations that confirm legitimately borrowed shares PRIOR to the entering of a short-sale order. Under its rules, the SEC maintains a Reg. SHO list which details Failure to Deliver (FTD) information on traded shares. The list can be short-circuited by corrupt MMs, but in the case of SLV/GLD there is no evidence that has happened recently. The list can be seen at shortsqueeze.com; it is updated frequently.
Must all be PFM then because the PPT through it's very LARGE bankers and brokerages naked short specific markets in the US and overseas on most if not all trading days (or they have the small firms locked up to do their dirty work...same effect). I would imagine that the PPT is "exempt" from all regulation since it's tracks are not closely followed and they work directly for the president and USTreasury. They make the real rules and apparently there are none that apply to their trading inputs. The SEC rules are for the little guys, the big guys follow what they want to...and the FED, SEC and PPT support them 100%. Silver tanked bigtime because the FED/PPT got the ball rolling with naked short selling and giving the sell order to buds with SLV holdings to dump. Once hedge fund and investor stops are hit, the lower stops tumble away one by one. But make no mistake about it, the FED/PPT starts the stampeding process and accelerates it when they can, with very little selling of anything. I don't believe for a second that Joe Investor on the eve of the worst night for banking in a decade (BSC going belly up), coupled with a 0.75% rate cut, with Asian markets pushing gold and silver to new highs decided this was the right time to sell......pure BS.
I fully participated in the hype of 1980, and this market is the same rip-off circus it was then.
Yeah I was there too from 1970-1982 as well. What you really mean
is that the US Dollar and stocks were overhyped during that period while silver and gold were fixed initially. As US was trashing its dollar, France and other nations wanted metals in return. Metals were allowed to finally float and seek true market value. We responded by closing the gold window before they wiped out our entire holdings. The only rip-off circus was being initiated by the FEDs and the final straw was raising margin requirements (as they did this week) so legitimate citizens had to bail out. The Hunts were legitimate citizens as well, following all the rules, until the circus ring-leader FED changed the rules. They did the same to Buffett recently when they told him to leave the silver market. Yeah, Buffett was a crook just like the Hunts (lol). But Warren gets the last laugh as they give him the option of taking over the muni-bond insurance market for a pittance.
DISCLAIMER: I closed all of my SLV/GLD positions on Monday and Tuesday. Iam NOT short ANY PM. I will go long SLV below $12; and, I have no idea when that price will be visited.
By being in "paper" silver and selling on weakness, you are in fact the perfect agent for the FED's tactics. They look forward to doing business with you again. I hold only actual metals in hand....the FED/PPT can't that sell it out from under me. I will never assist the FED/PPT in their tactics by taking shares in any paper ETF run by friends of the FED. Barclay's and BONY on the up and up? Yeah right. It's no different than all the paper shares of thousands of companies that the brokerages have in hand. They can pretty much buy and sell those at will regardless if they are supposed to be in our 401K accounts. A great card game if you can buy a seat on the exchange.
roadrunner
<< <i>If you had to hold for 5 years, which would you rather have:
$1,700 U.S. at 4 percent interest, or 100 ounces of silver?
I would go with the silver. >>
Today is Good Friday.
I'd pass on the silver this day ! Thanks
<< <i>The SEC still requires SLV to maintain physical inventory equal to the value
of the share float (less commissions and fees). You can read the SLV
prospectus on your brokerage site. GLD is governed the same. >>
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Good essay. I disagree with some of your points, but agree that evil elements
always conspire against small investors. Evil always prevails, too.
To better understand MY knowledge of and disdain for "naked shorting," one
can watch the full presentation at
www.businessjive.com.
I am all for folks holding physical metals. Most folks cannot safely store and
benefit from price movements in scores of thousands of ounces of silver and
hundreds of ounces of gold; that makes the ETFs SLV/GLD very handy. Those who
have played that game have made FAR more money trading than ANY of the
buy and hold bugs can ever hope to make. Even with tax issues, the profits
have been enormous.
I know how LOTS of scams work. The pumping of metals to the peasants is one
such scam that I understand. BUT, even if I am wrong, the FED is on the side of
my argument, and it is not profitable to fight the trend they are in the process
of establishing.
roadrunner
<< <i>
<< <i>The SEC still requires SLV to maintain physical inventory equal to the value
of the share float (less commissions and fees). You can read the SLV
prospectus on your brokerage site. GLD is governed the same. >>
; >>
It is extremely difficult to believe that they actually hold silver to back all the shares they've sold.
They've been around for some time now and a very small amount of money buys a very large per-
centage of all the silver in the world. I read somewhere that the Texas Teachers' Retirees Pension
Fund is in SLV. This alone could account for a sizable percentage of the amount of silver they claim
to own.
There is still no alternative to physical silver if you want it for the long term. If you're playing day to
day moves then most of the paper will suffice. Just keep in mind that if you own it on the wrong day
you'll lose not only your "paper" profits but your "paper" capital as well.
So now, my longterm physical holdings have a higher basis, but my IRA is much healthier and lives to play another day.
I am not sure that any of my money is going back into anything near the financial system in the foreseeable future.
I knew it would happen.