Will 1980's PSA Set Collecting Take Off

RayBShotz

I suspect there are set builders for every product. However, PSA set builders make a more significant investment into their sets. Grading fees or auction purchases demand that type of commitment. It is evident by the exponential growth of the Set Registry that many players are entering this arena every day (500+ sets registered to date). Not only existing PSA collectors but new collectors intrigued by the prospect of "joining the club" are expanding the request list for sets to build.

Certainly 1980-1985 product opens up opportunities for entry level collectors to begin to assemble a PSA set at a reasonable price point and still have something that is at least a notch above "junk wax". The advent of multiple manufacturers (Topps, Fleer, and Donruss) during this period offers this breed of collector 18 different sets not currently registered. It is only a matter of time before registration occurs and the race begins.

Are any of the board members out there waiting on these sets in the registry? Is this the vintage product of 2010? Wax, sets, and vending are certainly still available.

Like I stated initially new collectors are the hobbies lifes blood and this might be the future.

What are your thoughts.
RayB69Topps

mcastaldi

Ray> I think this is really interesting. As some people know, I am working on five different graded sets - 72T, 75T, 79T, 80T & 82F.

I'm doing them all for different reasons, but these sets generally fall into two groups-

The 72 and 75 sets I'm doing because I love the card design and they are a significant challenge. This could be the "Thrill of the Chase" group.

The 79, 80, and 82F make up my "Memories of Yesteryear" group. I'm currently 31, so these represent the cards I ammassed as a kid. 79 and 80 are from the most care-free time of my youth. And the 82F set is the first set I built myself from buying packs. I could have waited until I finished the 72 and/or 75 set, sure. However, I noticed that PSA8s from 79 and 80 and PSA9s from 82F are VERY reasonable right now. I did not want to take a chance of these issues eventually pricing themselves out of reach. While I don't think this will happen soon, necessarily, I do think it will happen eventually. So I pick these up on a catch-as-catch-can basis.

Anyway. . .I think you'll start to see the 1980-1985 stuff pick up in the next five years, and by then there will be some significant strength in the 70s issues - much the way there is with the 60s issues today.

Mike

zardoz51

In response to the question:

I do not see a significant increase in the collecting of 80's graded sets in the near future. Let's face it, even a 9 on commons from any of these years is not worth even half the grading fee. If you receive an 8, you have nothing, absolutely nothing! The bottom line is that it does not make economic sense to consider building any of these sets in graded form.

mcastaldi

zardoz> "Let's face it, even a 9 on commons from any of these years is not worth even half the grading fee"

The obvious arguement is that this is EXACTLY why you should be picking these up in PSA9 when you get a chance. I would say I agreee in that you probably shouldn't be submitting them yourself when you can buy them super-cheap in already-graded form and eliminate the risk. For example. . .I was bidding on several auctions for 82F PSA9s and these ended last night. When the dust settled, I won nine PSA9s - all minor stars or 2nd-tier HOFers - for a grand total of $53. That's $5.89 per card - all PSA9. Now. . .there's absolutely no way I'd submit these myself. . .but if someone else is willing to part with them for less than the grading fee, then who am I to say no?

Mike

zardoz51

Mike,

I see no pronlem in picking up the stars at that level on long term spec. However the topic was the actual assembly of graded sets, and I just don't see this ever happening. There is just far too much raw material out there and the basic common will never have any value to warrant grading with any hope of recapturing and of one's "investment" in the grading fees. Collect whatever you want, but I do not see the collecting of 80's sets ever becoming a trend.

TheCARDKid

It'll be a natural progression to collect PSA sets from the 80's. The baby boomers collect cards from the 50's. Some of the early 70's set collectors are re-living their childhood memories. Mcastaldi is doing the same thing. Even 5 years ago, you would have been laughed at for collecting a '72 topps set all PSA graded. Now there's 86 fleer basketball, 82 fleer baseball.

Maybe there will be a natural cut off point between the "junk wax" sets (like '88 or '89 Topps baseball) and something like '85 Topps or '84 Donruss.

69topps8

The only way I can see this happening is if PSA introduces an alternate low cost grading level. Perhaps they send these cards through a different process with junior level graders who give the cards a quick review and then slab them. If they can cut the grading fee down to $3 or so, then I could see people sending in $0.10 cards for grading. At $6 and higher, no way. There is a finite cost to receiving the cards in, grading them, uploading the information into the data base, encapsulating them, and shipping them out. I doubt if they can cut the cost enough to make money at $3 a card. Maybe if the raw high grade vintage cards dry up and their modern star submissions fall off, they may look for ways to expand their market. One way to do that is to gain access to those vast 80's inventories.

I agree it's smart to buy PSA 9 '80s commons at less than the cost of grading. But how many will get submitted if the submitor knows they will lose money unless they nail a 10 on every card? I would be very surprised if you can put together an entire set solely by purchasing other people's "losses".

mikeschmidt

That a complete unopened wax box of 1982 Fleer, 20 years later, costs less than many 2002 products speaks volumes to me. It says "production glut" in short.

Yes, you may be able to pick up 9s for less than grading fees today, but there is simply too much of this out there to ever make it profitable. For any year from the 1980s, you can basically extrapolate the population of any star rookie card on all of the commons. How many 1982 Fleer PSA 9 and PSA 10 Cal Ripken cards are there? There are definitely that many of ALL of the common cards, too.

That I have seen 1981 Fleer PSA 10 GEM MINT cards sell for under $30- tells me all I need to know. There may be some dealers who get all the minor stars graded, but there is no money in commons there now, and it is hard to envision there will be a time that it will be so.

For $7,000 today you can do two things:

1) Get your 1982 Fleer set graded
2) Purchase 10 VENDING CASES of 1982 Fleer cards, which should make you 180 sets.

1 completely graded set or 180 sets? Too much of a differential now...and for anytime, soon.

MS

mcastaldi

Schmidt> While I totally understand your point, I think your numbers are off on the 82F stuff.
Right now, 82F wax boxes typically go for $80 or so. While you are right that this is less expensive than many current (2002) unopened boxes, my question is will this still hold true 20 years from now? Or once the rave over that new product dies down in Fall 2002, will we find that same 2002 box in the $10-per-box bin? Time will tell.

For what it's worth. . .the last 82F vending case on eBay fetched around $1325 or so. I was hoping to get it for $600 but it just was not to be
So that's only 5 cases and change for $7k.

Or for $7k, you can buy two vending cases plus 733 modern card gradings (bulk pricing).

But we quibble over minutae. . . by and large you're right, there's no big reason to submit these right now and perhaps there never will be. But time will tell if the early 80s issues hold enough sentimental value to prompt people to send them in. I'm not holding my breath. . .but I'll pick them up when I can.

Mike

mikeschmidt

Mike-

I'm breaking at least a vending case and some 82 Fleer vending boxes right now. I will probably get some of the stars graded -- and I will let you know how I do :-)

mcastaldi

Mike> I'd be interested in the 9s

Mike