1/2 Point Market Value?
gemint
Posts: 6,178 ✭✭✭✭✭
We're starting to see half point graded cards hit the market. If the Bench RC is any indication, the market places little value on an 8.5. Here are recent closing prices on eBay for that card:
PSA 8 $201.11
PSA 8.5 $232.00
PSA 8 $224.50
PSA 8 $193.50
PSA 8 $213.61
PSA 8 $177.50
PSA 8 $179.99
With PSA 9's selling at $600+, the market isn't putting much of a premium on the 8.5 grade, at least for one example of this specific card. Maybe it's because this isn't a particularly condition sensitive card. But I would have expected it to sell at least in the $300 range.
PSA 8 $201.11
PSA 8.5 $232.00
PSA 8 $224.50
PSA 8 $193.50
PSA 8 $213.61
PSA 8 $177.50
PSA 8 $179.99
With PSA 9's selling at $600+, the market isn't putting much of a premium on the 8.5 grade, at least for one example of this specific card. Maybe it's because this isn't a particularly condition sensitive card. But I would have expected it to sell at least in the $300 range.
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Comments
I think it has more to do with that fact there are 133 PSA 9's of this card than anything else.
<< <i>I think it has more to do with that fact there are 133 PSA 9's of this card than anything else. >>
Bingo!
"How about a little fire Scarecrow ?"
Also, given how much criticism PSA has been getting for inconsistent and inaccurate grading, the market is probably just saying that it doesn't value an 8.5 much more than an 8.0, especially considering that the 8.5 was originally an 8.0.
Just stands to reason.
There are sets I collect where there are no 9's or 10's for some cards.
So an 8.5 would generate a lot of interest. Same for cards with a low pop in 9.
If all the 9's are tied up in collections, then an 8.5 may be the best someone can do for now.
"How about a little fire Scarecrow ?"
<< <i>I think it has more to do with that fact there are 133 PSA 9's of this card than anything else. >>
True, though you'd think it should all scale. So 9's are also worth less due to the high population as are 8's while 8.5's should fall somewhere in between but more than a few % above the 8 price.
<< <i>I'm also seeing 8.5's showing up listed as 'POP 1!'
"How about a little fire Scarecrow ?"
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But, not nearly half-way between the two.
The market needs some time to figure it out.
So far, it looks like maybe REAL expensive cards have the
most favorable risk/reward.
Without thinking much, I assumed that roughly 1/2 of the cards already graded "7's", for example, were 7.5's and 1/2 were not. Maybe that was a stupid assumption, maybe it's more like there are low end 7's, high end 7's, and regular ole' 7's, so the % of 7.5's would be more in the neighborhood of 1/3.
From what I've seen so far, the actual amount of .5's may be more like 1 in 10 to 1 in 15 (maybe even lower when you consider that some people are re-submitting and thus only sending in their cards that they think have a chance of a bump).
In any case, my whole point is that if less than 10% of the PSA 7's are really 7.5's, than you would think the value of the 7.5 would be significantly greater than the value of a 7, maybe even closer to the value of an 8 than to the value of a 7.
But I'm sure I'm missing something.
-Tom
me too- thought that was funny- be a pop one for a week
You are right if that turns out to be the case (i.e. only 5-10% of cards submitted receive the half-point bump).
But, remember, the whole premise rests on the assumption that a card receiving a 7.5 actually is a better card than a card receiving a 7.0.
Given PSA's inconsistent and often inaccurate grading, the market may simply be saying that it does not trust the judgment of PSA's graders enough to give a 7.5 a large premium over a 7.0, especially given that the 7.5 was graded a 7.0 the first time around.
Mickey71
auction
<< <i>In addition to the previous points, I think the biggest premiums will go to cards with strong centering. This particular card is slightly off-center both ways with possibly a slight slant T/B, >>
I agree, it looks like a low end 8.5 to me
You said that 2x in this thread, we get it.
Steve
I hate to burst everyones bubble, but you will not see alot of .5's in raw subs. I believe this is going to be mainly review. Does this make sense -no. Does this make cents$- yes. I did notice a very good point in a previous post that if the 8.5's aren't strong for the grade then the confidence in the grading will be low, therefore the premiums will not be huge on most cards.
Mickey71
<< <i>Given PSA's inconsistent and often inaccurate grading, >>
Often? That means frequently, as in more times than not.
Please elaborate on this because that's a pretty strong accusation.
And don't pull the "well everyone says it" card because what you read here is not a represenative sample size to make an accurate judgement. It's easier to complain than to make a compliment; heck, your posts alone prove that.
Thanks in advance.