High-Number Parity
Doc
Posts: 7
A dealer's perspective....
I've been getting cards graded for a while now and although I am not collecting a set, I think I have contributed to at least some of your all's sets. A phenomenon I've noticed concerns high numbers...there's absolutely no profit at all in buying them raw and having them graded. This is in dramatic contrast to low numbers, which can be quite profitable. There are, of course, exceptions, but generally speaking this is accurate for most years.
This is due I think primarily to dealers who naturally have their more expensive cards graded (stars, semis, and HI #s). Who in their right mind would spend $8.00 to have a card graded when its book value is less than that? There are therefore more graded hi #s available on the market than there are low #s, creating an upside down market place where the more common low #s (but rare in graded form) quite often out sell the rarer hi #s.
Having said all of that, I finally get to my point...Are buying up the high #s now a good investment? Will they eventually climb in value and reclaim their rightful title as "RARE" as more set graders get into the market? Or will the low #s simply decrease in value as more are graded, making both types of cards unprofitable to buy raw?
Again, this is from a pure $$ angle and so forgive my intrusion into the pure and passionate set collectors realm...
Steve P.
I've been getting cards graded for a while now and although I am not collecting a set, I think I have contributed to at least some of your all's sets. A phenomenon I've noticed concerns high numbers...there's absolutely no profit at all in buying them raw and having them graded. This is in dramatic contrast to low numbers, which can be quite profitable. There are, of course, exceptions, but generally speaking this is accurate for most years.
This is due I think primarily to dealers who naturally have their more expensive cards graded (stars, semis, and HI #s). Who in their right mind would spend $8.00 to have a card graded when its book value is less than that? There are therefore more graded hi #s available on the market than there are low #s, creating an upside down market place where the more common low #s (but rare in graded form) quite often out sell the rarer hi #s.
Having said all of that, I finally get to my point...Are buying up the high #s now a good investment? Will they eventually climb in value and reclaim their rightful title as "RARE" as more set graders get into the market? Or will the low #s simply decrease in value as more are graded, making both types of cards unprofitable to buy raw?
Again, this is from a pure $$ angle and so forgive my intrusion into the pure and passionate set collectors realm...
Steve P.
0
Comments
My current set has only 4 cards out of 252 low numbers that are not PSA 8 or better, yet 8 cards out of 72 high numbers that are not PSA 8 or better. While superstars tend to get graded more often, they typically were protected better as well. Who cares about Sam Chapman? Yet his #9 card in the 1951 Bowman set is the scarcest card of all in PSA 8 or better.
The trend I am seeing doesn't occur so much in the older years as any high quality cards of years up to say 1957 are generally considered by most dealers to be worth grading. Therefore, in the case of 51 Bowmans, 56 Topps, etc..the trend should have worked itself through by now such that the rarer series cards are indeed rare in the graded forms as well as compared to the more common series. Its tough to find a nice NM/MT early Bowman or Topps issue these days that hasn't been graded
I was more referring to sets in the 60s and higher, where a card with a pop of less than 5 from a set in the 60s will bring $30 and up...and in most cases you can find the same card raw at a show in NM-MT condition several times over. Its rare because it hasn't been graded, not because you just can't find it. The high numbers though are much tougher to find raw (high quality) than they are graded.
The pop fluctuations of the older years like your Bowmans have a lot to do with where the card was positioned on the sheet prior to cutting. The 52 Topps Wehmeier is a classic example which I believe was in a corner...it didn't get cut very well. Therefore you see a PSA 6 at $75 and a PSA 8 at $7500...it may be the same for the 51 Bowman Chapman, though I don't know for sure.
Another strange market occurence...62 Topps. A few months back I had some nice pop 2 and 3 cards from the 62 set...I couldn't get peanuts for them. I think in this case the set is so tough to find nice, that collectors wont even try the set in PSA 8....as a result PSA 8 commons, which are really tough, don't sell well...(or at least they didn't...not sure about now).
Steve P.
P.S. As to who I am...I'm a nobody in the card biz and just deal on ebay (bauerfan)...but I grew up set collecting and sell lots of graded commons. I also used to grade for this company, though I hate to admit it and thinking about it gives me the heebie jeebies.
I've also noticed '62 commons don't command the huge premiums I would expect from a dark bordered 40 year old set. I agree that there probably aren't too many people willing to build this set due to the big $ the Maris and other star cards command.
Just wondering why you hate to admit working for PSA? If you're shy on responding here on the boards, email me at 'kshmir@earthlink.net'.
Also, I do pay over Beckett plus SMR for 1969 PSA 8 commons. Let me know if you have any to sell and what you're asking for them. I'm particularly looking for #78 Tom Satriano and #110 Mike Shannon.
Thanks,
DL
Welcome to the board. I resemble your remarks. And I appreciate the many nice 67's you've supplied to my set. Keep them coming! Thanks.
There is an ongoing debate about the high vs. low number availability in PSA 8 and 9. As a true collector, I am able to pick up the lower numbers, low pops at reasonable prices occasionally. Bidding wars are common, and that will definitely create a record price on a low population common. I am guilty as charged for paying too much. When you go after an "only 1", you are sure to pay an unreasonable price if you have to have the card. I have been collecting and building the 67 set for a few years and I haven't had anyone step up to the plate and overwhelm me with large quantities of mint (PSA 9's) cards. I wish they would. I think higher grade high numbers are good deals and usually buy them when available at sensible prices.
I wasn't collecting cards early enough to understand the true availability of high grade raw material from the 1960's, no less the 67 set. I saw a statement on the other board that someone is sitting with 1000's of commons from the 50's and 60's. When I was a coin dealer (a long time ago), I bought and sold bags of silver coins. Each bag would contain thousands of circulated coins. Even the "mint sewn" bags of uncirculated coins did not guarantee all gem material would be found inside. This is no different than breaking out a wax box or case and finding "new" cards with one corner hit in the same place on every card in the pack. So I wonder how many truly "Mint" and "Gem Mint" cards really exist in these large holdings. I just don't know enough about the past to speculate. While it's true that the PSA 8 populations are growing, we all know that many of the numbers are inflated due to resubmissions. Because of this, many of the 8's are also good deals.
I'd like to hear more about the "commons" versus "stars" and "semi-stars" availability from the old-timers on the board. Are all of us who focus on high quality, despite the commonality of the card considered fools for paying this kind of money? But then again, back in 1980 my peers of "experts" criticized me heavily for paying $16,000 for a 1902-s $10 Liberty at the Eliasberg Sale that six years later received a PCGS grade of MS-69. So who knows?
Sky
"Give me a reason to fly, and I'll be there"
Paul
And I know what you're saying about high versus low. I've been able to pick up plenty of 1st through 4th series 72's in PSA 8 and 9 shape for between $1.00 and $2.00 apiece after I wade through and remove all of the OC's. But, I have trouble buying 5th series in PSA 8 or 9 shape for less than $4 and the 6th series ungraded cost $10 or more. Since almost all of these commons sell for between $16 and $22 on eBay, the profit margin is much sweeter on the lower series (and losses are less - when you get the occasional 7).
I also don't think that we've come anywhere near the number of graded card collectors for there to be a real distinction in what series are rare versus which ones are not. Hypothetically - If Topps produced an average of 250,000 of each 1st through 4th series cards in 72, 125,000 of each 5th series and 50,000 of each 6th series then yes the 5th and 6th are RARER than 1st through 4th - but none of those cards should really be considered RARE. And there are still a lot more collectors working on raw sets than graded ones.
Sets - 1970, 1971 and 1972
Always looking for 1972 O-PEE-CHEE Baseball in PSA 9 or 10!
lynnfrank@earthlink.net
outerbankyank on eBay!
Glad to have you on the board. I think that I've bought more of my 65's from you than any other dealer. Thanks for all of your help. I'm now working on 69's and please remember that I pay whatever 69Topps8 pays plus a dollar.
wayne
Welcome. I've bought more than my fair share of Mike Schmidt cards from you. I never knew that you were a PSA grader, and hope that you can share some of that experience with us.
Take care.
As to PSA, there's plenty to criticize them over, but I don't want to knock them too much, especially on their own message board (and especially since I still use the service). The one thing I can't fault them for is their grading. I thought I knew cards prior to working there...I wasn't even close. Most of the graders know there stuff and I learned a lot. Detecting a "slightly" trimmed card or a shaved card can be tough...and there are people really good at messing with a card (Don't buy a raw card from WIWAG).
As to less than a minute per card...yes, thats accurate, but its also an average. The high dollar and older cards obviously took a lot longer to grade, but an order of 200 89 Topps Traded Griffeys go pretty quick. You get a feel for centering and size pretty quickly without having to measure. Most graders when I was there spent the time it takes on a card to get the grade right.
Sky... I do need to make the distinction between an 8 and a 9...the 8s are still plentiful from the 60s in raw form....but you can't pay too much for a 9. Well...maybe, but there will never be a lot of 9s (unless PSA changes its grading scale to increase submissions). My caution would be to just not pay too much for that low pop 8...there's more coming. btw...I take that as a challenge to one day overwhelm you with 9s (I can overwhelm with 7s...does that count?)
Back to my original point...I personaly think picking up graded high # 8s is not a bad idea. They seem to be cheap (relatively) right now and if you like to prospect in cards, thats not a bad place to do it.
Steve
Bring those 9's on! My checkbook is lonely for some 67 PSA 9's right now.
Good hearing from you on the board, and I appreciate your "advisories" on who stay away from. Keep us posted.
Regards,
Sky
"Give me a reason to fly, and I'll be there"
I echo the other with a "Welcome to the Board". I want to thank you for the cards I have purchased from you very recently, and urge you to keep those PSA 9's coming. There's always room for more 9's.
Jim
I trade food for 69 Topps!
Thanks again RayB69Topps
And yes I agree with your original post that in many instances a high # card (such as a '66) are more commonplace then the low and mid #'s. Lately in '66's a low # PSA-8 sells for double SMR, while a high # in line of SMR - valid point.
Website: http://www.qualitycards.com
I also have bought 100's of 1961 cards from you this year. I agree with you that a low pop common card will go for more than a high number high pop card. Eventually, I would expect that the low number cards will come down in price. We are already seeing that happen in the 61's. Hi pop 8's are going for 13-17, while they used to go for a minimum of $25 to 35. The number of graded common cards has tripled over the past 10 momnths, and prices are softer. Ultimately, I would expect that the prices will revert to more where the high number cards will sell for much more than low numbers.
I believe, however, that card grading and the set registry is drawing a lot of people back to collecting. I am certainly one. And as demand increases, eventually, the supply of cards to be graded will run out.
I have to think that there are lots more high grade Mantle cards out there than commons, assuming all were graded. People always were more careful about the star cards, so the potential for commons to be graded has to be limited. The question is how many are there. Gaspipe on Ebay has had 40 some of the same 3-4 commons graded as 8's. Heaven knows where he got them all.
Thanks for your thoughtful post, and all of the great cards.
mcbr1de