How scarce are high-grade raw cards becoming?
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Posting this question is both prompted by my personal experience as well as being intended to stimulate discussion.
Right now there are seven cards I'm looking to add to my collection in well-centered NM (PSA 7 equivalent) condition:
1953 Topps - Paige
1955 Topps AA - Thorpe
1958 Topps - Mantle, Mays, Banks
1961 Fleer BKB - Robertson RC, Chamberlain RC
I look on Ebay for these cards weekly and come upon multiple copies graded PSA 7 and higher. Yet for any of these seven cards, I can count the number of NM quality raw cards I have found for sale or auction in the last few months on one hand (and usually without using all my fingers).
Take for example, the 1958 Mantle (#150). According to the PSA population report, there are 560 copies graded PSA 7 or above, which means that overall (including SGC, BVG, and GAI) there are probably 600-700 copies graded NM or better.
The question I have for the board is whether you think that there are also still 600-700 NM-quality raw 1958 Mantle cards out there, or do you think that with the emphasis on TPG of the last few years, the number is a lot lower (maybe only 100-200)?
Given that graded cards generally command premium prices when compared to raw, the impact on the market could be very interesting when certain cards reach the point at which high-grade raw examples become scarcer than equivalently graded cards (if it has not started to happen already).
Thoughts?
Right now there are seven cards I'm looking to add to my collection in well-centered NM (PSA 7 equivalent) condition:
1953 Topps - Paige
1955 Topps AA - Thorpe
1958 Topps - Mantle, Mays, Banks
1961 Fleer BKB - Robertson RC, Chamberlain RC
I look on Ebay for these cards weekly and come upon multiple copies graded PSA 7 and higher. Yet for any of these seven cards, I can count the number of NM quality raw cards I have found for sale or auction in the last few months on one hand (and usually without using all my fingers).
Take for example, the 1958 Mantle (#150). According to the PSA population report, there are 560 copies graded PSA 7 or above, which means that overall (including SGC, BVG, and GAI) there are probably 600-700 copies graded NM or better.
The question I have for the board is whether you think that there are also still 600-700 NM-quality raw 1958 Mantle cards out there, or do you think that with the emphasis on TPG of the last few years, the number is a lot lower (maybe only 100-200)?
Given that graded cards generally command premium prices when compared to raw, the impact on the market could be very interesting when certain cards reach the point at which high-grade raw examples become scarcer than equivalently graded cards (if it has not started to happen already).
Thoughts?
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Comments
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Based on my 2007 exploration of the USA,
I believe that high-grade examples of raw cards
prior to 1960 are geting very RARE; 1960-70 are
getting very SCARCE.
There are - relatively - ALOT of raw cards that might
grade-out from the 70s-80s, but most are not yet
terribly valuable.
1990 forward will NOT be worth anything during the
lives of our childrens' childrens' children. TONS of it
has been stashed; dead money, forever.
I think I would take my checklist to big shows and start walking the line till I found what I'm looking for.
IMO - expect no bargains - some of the better dealers who sell raw because they cater to guys like you who don't want holders know what they have and expect to be compensated.
Bargains can be found - but intuition tells me - don't expect it.
What do ya think?
mike
edit: Someone I've seen at shows who has a lot of raw but no bargains is Kyle's cards. He's very nice - has a large inventory and to a degree overgrades - as do most raw sellers IMO.
Your last sentence confuses me as well. Are you implying because there are fewer high grade raw cards around that they will start to command more than slabbed cards in the same condition? Do you even know why grading was started and why it's so important given today's market conditions? I understand you like raw cards and I'm no different, but grading is popular because it helps people buy and sell over the internet more confidently.
Like the Andy Capp Icon, I used to collect first edition Paperbacks from the late 50's and 60's of Andy Capp. Got a box of them around somewhere..................
Neil
1955 Topps AA - Thorpe
1958 Topps - Mantle, Mays, Banks
1961 Fleer BKB - Robertson RC, Chamberlain RC
These cards all command a premium, regardless if they are graded or not.
If you decide to purchase them raw and come to find out they have been altered or mislead about their condition (which I would hope doesn't happen but the latter happens more often than not), I can guarantee you won't get any sympathy here.
<< <i>1953 Topps - Paige
1955 Topps AA - Thorpe
1958 Topps - Mantle, Mays, Banks
1961 Fleer BKB - Robertson RC, Chamberlain RC
These cards all command a premium, regardless if they are graded or not.
If you decide to purchase them raw and come to find out they have been altered or mislead about their condition (which I would hope doesn't happen but the latter happens more often than not), I can guarantee you won't get any sympathy here. >>
I'm going to the Tri-Star show in San Francisco next weekend...don't have my hopes up, though....the last one they did over Labor Day was pretty lame. Not too many of the dealers east of the Rockies come out to CA any more.
Regarding Ebay, I've never had any problems so far. I only buy from sellers who allow returns for any reason, have 100+ positive feedbacks as sellers, and who offer PayPal protection greater than the value of the card. Probably half the cards in my displays (on the other thread) were bought on Ebay over the past twelve months without any problems (i.e. none were trimmed).
As to price, I'm not expecting any bargains. None of the cards I'm looking for are over $1000 in PSA 7 or $500 in PSA 6, so I should (eventually) be able to find reasonably priced cards with nice visual appeal (I'm picky about centering, but not about corner wear) in the $500 range.
Matt
P.S. What are your thoughts on my hypothesis? Do you think that high-quality graded cards now outnumber high-quality raw cards?
As to your other point, yes I understand that buying graded cards gives many people piece of mind with regards to authenticity. However, I only buy on Ebay from sellers who have a no-questions-asked return policy, own a card-sizer, and therefore can measure any card I buy over the Internet as soon as I receive it and return it if necessary, thus insulating myself from the risk of trimmed cards.
Matt
<< <i>Mike...
I'm going to the Tri-Star show in San Francisco next weekend...don't have my hopes up, though....the last one they did over Labor Day was pretty lame. Not too many of the dealers east of the Rockies come out to CA any more.
Regarding Ebay, I've never had any problems so far. I only buy from sellers who allow returns for any reason, have 100+ positive feedbacks as sellers, and who offer PayPal protection greater than the value of the card. Probably half the cards in my displays (on the other thread) were bought on Ebay over the past twelve months without any problems (i.e. none were trimmed).
As to price, I'm not expecting any bargains. None of the cards I'm looking for are over $1000 in PSA 7 or $500 in PSA 6, so I should (eventually) be able to find reasonably priced cards with nice visual appeal (I'm picky about centering, but not about corner wear) in the $500 range.
Matt
P.S. What are your thoughts on my hypothesis? Do you think that high-quality graded cards now outnumber high-quality raw cards? >>
I'm totally clueless. My intuition says there's still loads to be discovered.
Just when people think they have a handle on how much is out there - a guy comes out of the woodwork with all kinds of great cards in old binders.
I have these in my file - don't remember why - but this guy was loaded with great cards!
I've got like 9 scans of binders. I guarantee there's way more out there than can be calculated - just do the math - check the total pop report for any graded card like the Robertson RC - then guestimate that there could easily be tens of thousands still in existence?
Just not sure.
Why not just buy it graded and rip it out - that's what a lot of people do.
mike
Just because we do not see them (vintage raw) does not mean that they are not out there.
They are.
Steve
<< <i>CDNuts....I'm not sure why you think my hypothesis is so illogical. There's a finite number of high-quality cards out there. As more and more of them get graded, that leaves fewer and fewer raw. Logic states that at some point, therefore, raw NM-quality cards will become scarcer than graded NM-quality cards and may potentially command a premium.
As to your other point, yes I understand that buying graded cards gives many people piece of mind with regards to authenticity. However, I only buy on Ebay from sellers who have a no-questions-asked return policy, own a card-sizer, and therefore can measure any card I buy over the Internet as soon as I receive it and return it if necessary, thus insulating myself from the risk of trimmed cards.
Matt >>
Your entire theory is based on the graded card staying graded. Since the cards can always be cracked out, they will never go for a premium to their graded counterparts. The only raw cards that outsell the graded equal, is when the buyer overgrades the card hoping it will grade higher than it really will, or just because of an uneducated buyer. Of course, this is for high grade only, for cards in lower condition, the swings in price can go wither way for commons, stars should still demand more.
http://sportsfansnews.com/author/andy-fischer/
Because of the many scammers and deceptive people out there selling, the smart buyers are careful. They're afraid of that raw card, that could be a good forgery, reprint, or even a photocopy of a card. They're afraid that the card is trimmed, bleached, recolored, or otherwise restored.
Because of that fear and apprehension, they bid lower to lower the risk of loss.
I have some pretty nice raw cards in my collection and I'm sure most of the people on this board can say the same. I wouldn't consider selling them on ebay raw.
Selling cards on ebay raw is like selling them wholesale, selling them graded is selling them retail. If the card IS that nice, get the thing slabbed and show the buying public how nice it is. If it's not, sell it raw and take whatever you can get.
Would you buy this card raw on ebay, and if so what would you pay for it? PSA 4 money? PSA 5 money?
Edited to add - this card came to me from this board, sold to me as trimmed, is now slabbed authentic, and I'm glad to have it. If it was sold RAW on ebay with a low resolution scan, it might catch an uneducated buyer or a buyer looking for a bargain. That was the point of adding the scan.
Edited to add: And it sure is a beauty.
If ya check Brady's shoe - you'll see less of it on the bump card.
Yes. More than plenty in non-graded collections.