The ** OFFICIAL ** US Bullion Coin thread

Griv

Okay, maybe it's not exactly "official", but it makes the title sound better I think.

Actually I wanted to start a thread to discuss trends and changes within the bullion coin market whether it be from the collectable stand-point, which I think is strong, or even how "flippers" see the changes. Obviously changes in eBay will have some effect on flipping but to what extent remains to be seen. Several threads are active on that discussion so I don't think we really need to duplicate that but it certainly will have some impact.

One of the things I find odd is that with the soaring values in platinum, the very low mintages and some really awesome modern designs, why the mintages are not driven up as I would have suspected after 2004 demonstrated a broader market for platinum. Is it the high cost that is keeping mintages at around 5K or is the luster of gold keeping the tourists away? I suspect platinum will always be the red headed step child of the precious metals market and while I like it a lot, it just doesn’t shine like gold.

pf70collector

With the overabundance of 70's given out for the 2006's AGE Uncirculated Ws and beyond these too can be had at just a little above melt value. I am still having my doubts on the 2006 W Platinum uncirculateds, though I still own a complete set. I just don't see the demand after 2 years. If they were proofs, which are more widely collected, I believe they would have potential. Even the 2004 platinum proofs had a substantial price increase in 2 years with a much higher mintage.

EricSan

Griv,

I posted something like this on the yahoo platinum group, but I think it will get wider readership here. I DO think that the high cost of platinum will keep many people out of these coins, but I think the cost is a psychological barrier, not a physical barrier. I remember when I received the first promotional materials from the mint about the plat program and looked at the 4-coin set that was priced over $1k and thought to myself "yeah, right..." At the time, I couldn't bring myself to spend that much money directly from the mint (all that I collected were the standard issue proof sets, unc sets, and commems). Fast forward a few years and I have a job with useful income. $1K is still a lot, but its doable and I actively collect the $50 platinum 1/2 coins (both proof and w-unc).

But there are many, many people that collect classic coins in "higher" grades. These coins have much higher mintages than the plats and often sell for $1k and upwards for each coin (similar cost to the $50 plats). Many of the 19th century coins are easily over $1k in MS grade, yet they are actively collected. Even if we go a few grades lower for the classic stuff, its still a comparable price point to the $25 plats. So, I don't think that the cost of platinum is the key factor.

I think it is the psychology of paying "larger sums" of money for "new" coins. If this is really the issue, the plats won't be "new" after another few years... I am attracted to the incredibly low mintages and happen to like the designs, though the "vistas of liberty" are much nicer designs than the current "branches of govt" in my opinion.

I think that the 2004 proof issue, the 2006 w-unc issue and the 10th anniversary sets will help to stimulate the collector base for platinum. I would like to see an analysis of just who bought 16,000 platinum anniversary sets. Where did they go? Into the hands of plat collectors? Not likely, there aren't enough yet. Into the hands of flippers? Maybe, but not that many of them. Into the hands of the 20th Anniv Gold Set owners to complete a 3-coin reverse proof run? Maybe? But 10,000 of them? I'm not so sure...

The distribution of the 10th Anniv sets will have a pretty large impact on the platinum collector base, I would suspect. Now I'm just waiting to see...

Eric

jmski52

Is it the high cost that is keeping mintages at around 5K or is the luster of gold keeping the tourists away? I suspect platinum will always be the red headed step child of the precious metals market and while I like it a lot, it just doesn’t shine like gold.

Collecting Platinum will always be a challenge - there just isn't much of it around, and it will always cost significantly more than gold.

I am still having my doubts on the 2006 W Platinum uncirculateds, though I still own a complete set. I just don't see the demand after 2 years. If they were proofs, which are more widely collected, I believe they would have potential. Even the 2004 platinum proofs had a substantial price increase in 2 years with a much higher mintage.

What you are seeing is the effect of a fast-moving, rising market. It's getting harder to buy ANY platinum, and so the scarcity premiums just don't gain traction. This isn't new. In 2000, the Unc Plats were low mintage compared to the earlier dates. Rising prices begat lower mintages in subsequent years, which destroyed the hoped-for premium in the year 2000 issues. Same thing happened in 2003. Now, 2006 might suffer the same fate. 2008 might be the mother of all rarities if the price continues to go through the roof. Who's gonna afford $2,500/oz. platinum? Just keep your eye on the ball.

Even though your Plats might lose their collector premiums, they keep holding their own in purchasing power, which is the real game. Who cares what the dollar value is, as long as they can be cashed in for "good money" when the time comes to sell? Whether "good money" constitutes $1,000 or $1,000,000 (devalued ones), the platinum itself will be useful.

I think that the 2004 proof issue, the 2006 w-unc issue and the 10th anniversary sets will help to stimulate the collector base for platinum. I would like to see an analysis of just who bought 16,000 platinum anniversary sets. Where did they go? Into the hands of plat collectors?

I don't agree that these sets will stimulate Plat collecting. I believe that Plats will continue to struggle for a collector base, but that the true believers will be rewarded. I think that the Reverse Proofs will compliment the other RP coins, but that the Mint blew any chances of helping a collector base grow. They continue to mismanage the program by producing many more issues than a collector base can gather around.

That doesn't mean that there is no opportunity in Plats. On the contrary, when everyone becomes too poor or frustrated (or both) to buy them, the mintages will keep falling until they bottom out. Every year, I've thought "OK, this is the big one." But every year, the mintages keep dropping. Sooner or later, I'm gonna be right about the mintages, but in the meantime, all that trash platinum I've bought that has no collector premium has just paid for my mortgage, and then some.

Griv

Vey interesting and I would have to agree. It makes sense with all of the concerns raised here by classic collectors are most certainly bound to be reflected by the "average" collector. Shelling out $1800 for one coin and then concern that platinum will fall and then the coin would lose all of its value. I also agree that in 3-5 years this attitude will turn around and then the older platinums will be very hard to find.

I do like the vistas but I think the branches of government are also nice. It makes for an interesting mini-series for the unc and proof 06-08W plats. This I think will become more popular as the series morphs in 2009. That is if we can even afford platinum by then.

Griv

<< <i>I don't agree that these sets will stimulate Plat collecting. I believe that Plats will continue to struggle for a collector base, but that the true believers will be rewarded. I think that the Reverse Proofs will compliment the other RP coins, but that the Mint blew any chances of helping a collector base grow. They continue to mismanage the program by producing many more issues than a collector base can gather around. >>



I am in the middle on this as I agree 1000% that the Mint is their own worst enemy. Someone with numismatic experience should be on their board as those idiots are, well, idiots. I do think these sets will help but I also don't think they were managed well and will not have the effect many of us had hoped. Their micro-management of 1st Spouse sales have killed the series for collectors although those that tough it out might find the lowest mintages ever especially since they are subject to being melted.

Another interesting thing I have found is that if you order a 1 per household Mint product say today, Feb 1st and you try and order another in 2 weeks say Feb 15th. If your first order hasn't shipped then the Mint will cancel your 1st order not the second. Did I mention they were idiots?

GritsMan

My kind of thread...so here goes:

The plat series has SO MUCH going for it in the long run including beautiful designs and safety. By safety, I mean when I buy one, I don't have to worry if it's counterfeit or cleaned or otherwise messed with.

The bullion value of the plats is a great source of comfort, too, BUT the real plat collectors among us shouldn't count on that--or even think too much about it. What I see happening is that EVENTUALLY, plat prices will fall, perhaps dramatically. When they do, two things will happen:

1) the series will suddenly become more affordable and more popular
2) those of us who gritted our teeth and kept buying new issues at high prices when they came out, will suddenly find ourselves holding incredible rarities

Now, just how fast this will translate into price appreciation, who knows. But I think that we'll end up trading our bullion value for numismatic value--which is just fine with me. And forget about the RP. If we collect, we've got to own it, but we should just appreciate that it's a beautiful coin and leave it at that.

One more observation: checking both auctions and stores such as APMEX, there is a definite trend toward FEWER of the more rare dates showing up, at least in the proof halves. And I use RARE quite broadly, from 2001 through 2005. 2006 is still common because it is recent, but I'm
guessing that one will soon dry up, too. So that tells me that SOMEONE is snatching these things up. They may be collectors or hoarders or speculators, but we are not the only ones paying attention to the mintages.

Also, when the series does start to become more popular, all these labels such as "First Strike" and "Anniversary" are going to be meaningless. I can't believe anyone pays a premium for these labels.

So that's my half-ounce worth...for the time being.

Rarity

Platinum UNC coin has a very beautiful look but somehow I still prefer the yellow collor of gold. Probably because gold has a richer history and has been used widely by the common people.

My fear is that Platinum series has been unpopular and will continue to be ignored by collectors of the future because the Silver and Gold eagles are more captivating.

Griv

I admit that holding a raw gold coin is an amazing feel. I have a scratched up 2003 Proof I like to play with. I don't think platinum will be ignored in the future because almost all coins eventually find their market. Look at all the people that collect Ikes and SBAs. More power to them but those are some fugly mug shots. Even the 1st Spouses can't top SBA. They should have used the back of her head. (you watch, I'll get death threats now from the SBA crowd ).

So, I understand that fewer people can afford them or do not wish to spend that much on a somewhat unknown player in the coin world. I actually had hoped the plats would end in 2008 and a switch to palladium would occur allowing another Eagle series to begin using a much more affordable metal. ~378/oz versus ~1760/oz for plat or even ~$909/oz for gold. You can tell the Mint liked my idea and got right on it.

Griv

Oops, what just happened with palladium jumping $32 or 8.44% over yeterday. Now at $414/oz!

Maybe those idiots at the Mint did listen to me.

Naaaaaaah!