Too late to buy gold?
KUCH
Posts: 1,186
Thinking of purchasing $5,000 in Canadian Maple Leafs. Long term investment, say maybe 10-15 years. Would welcome opinions.
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Minnie Minoso Master and Basic
1967 Topps PSA 8+
1960's Topps run Mega Set
"For me, playing baseball has been like a war and I was defending the uniform I wore, Every time I put on the uniform I respected it like the American flag. I wore it like I was representing every Latin country."--Minnie Minoso
JMHO - Good Luck
5000 in 6 months CDs at 6% interest... in 13 years will be
10,782 dollars and some change. so interest compounded 2 times
a year.
if you buy 9 ounces for 5000 (and that is on a dip!) you will need
gold to be 1500 an ounce to make 13,500 dollars.
anyone please correct my math if you see an obvious mistake.
think about it. i know i do.
<< <i>way to late to the game in my opinion.
5000 in 6 months CDs at 6% interest... in 13 years will be
10,782 dollars and some change. so interest compounded 2 times
a year.
if you buy 9 ounces for 5000 (and that is on a dip!) you will need
gold to be 1500 an ounce to make 13,500 dollars.
anyone please correct my math if you see an obvious mistake.
think about it. i know i do. >>
youall appear to be good with numbers..how bought Gold at $ 675.00 and sold Gold at $$ 877.00 Tuesday ...... in all of 4 months What is the return ?
<< <i>I wouldn't chase here. Chasing's almost always a bad idea. That said, gold at $1k/oz. looks like a lock this year. >>
I have been using Guy Adami from CNBC's Fast Money, as my trade pin. He has been always bearish Gold since $ 675 , saying the next move would be down .On Tuesday , after Gold's big move up .. Guy was silent after a discussion about Gold . So my take maybe the bears have given up and become ...gulp , bulls on Gold
It's a nasty little habit.
IMHO
TD
But if continues to skyrocket, I wouldnt be
a lot of us were buying bullion and/or US gold when gold was at 400-675 and everyone recommended it.
now though at 875 (lets say) a lot of people's opinions are changing. gold could trade at 800-1000 for the
next 5 years and it would not shock me in the least.
<< <i>Wait a little longer. Gold will dip back down. Once you see sub $750 then it'll be good to buy. >>
About five years ago, when gold was wallowing in the $255-260 range, we had a guy come in who said that he wanted to buy $2,000,000 worth of gold as soon as it got down to $250 an ounce. He had previously made a $1,000,000 purchase from us, so he was not your typical BS'er.
It never did get down to $250, and he did not buy.
What did waiting for the bottom cost him?
TD
Should you decide to purchase when spot is 15.70 +/-, just realize that over the long haul there will most likely be some serious declines in value. Be confident in your ability to buy now and not worry when the price falls. It may be significantly higher in 15 yrs, it may be less. You need to hold long enough and then sell once a profit has been made and you asess the mkt is peaking. All of this has to be within the scope of the economy and cycles of the precious metals market. Your decision to buy and sell has to encompass the full picture. Not just simply buying when prices have gone up and selling when they've gone down for an extended time period, as so many people have do.
Compute into your holding expenses 'Opportunity Cost' and selling cost. I personally don't think Silver is a wise investment at this stage.
I'm not the wisest or wealthiest. However, some things have stood out to me as being an obvious good investment at the time. Ex: I loaded up on gold in late 1978 around $270 oz, sold it all around $775+/- oz in late 1979 I think. Loaded up when silver hit a low of 3.75, loaded up later at under $5 oz. Loaded up big with gold during 1999 around 260/oz through when it hit 330/oz later. I'm sitting on all the silver/gold until I think the mkt is getting close to peaking. I'll then dump it all and wait for the next cycle. There may be more upshot potential maybe not, but I don't see the metals crashing anytime soon.
Again, I'm not the wisest or the wealthiest. Many have had the same discipline that I have. You need to look at long terms when it comes to precious metals IMHO. Today's spot price may not leave you a guaranteed profit. I felt confident that $270 in 1978, $260 in 1999 for gold, 3.75 for silver - were lows in the cycle, and that it guaranteed me a long term profit. I knew that in 1999 +/- oil was $11 barrel and would make for a terrific long term investment, check out Exxon. Some things you KNOW will cycle to the other extreme in time. You might make a few dollars buying silver at 15.70, but you'll be sweating bullets. Look for extreme cycles in the economy and then make big bets. That's my stradegy.
Once the timing is right for me to sell as the precious metals are peaking, I'm considering putting the money into currency trading. Why not?, that's when the US dollar will be the weakest, with a guarantee that in time the Euro will cycle down, US dollar going up. Haven't done this before, but will have to look into it. The point being, try to catch all the cycles when they are most out of kilter and you have the best guarantee that the pendulum will make a significant swing in time.
Of course, I'm talking about an investment here. Coins/Currency are bought in all cycles with a little made here, a little lost here, mostly as simply a hobby.
I can't believe I blabbered on for so long !!!!! I'd better post it now before proof reading or I'm likely to erase the whole gobblygook.
Edited to say
Wow, it took me so long to type this that there are now so many good posts. I would've been the second to post if I wasn't so darn slow
"La Vostra Nonna Ha Faccia Del Fungo"
No telling where you'll be in 10-15 years and 5K isn't going to net you much no matter how high it rides. Depends too if its your only $5000 or just play money.
John
Never view my other linked pages. They aren't coin related.
It cost him the title of the "six million dollar man". ... if my math is correct.
<< <i>Thinking of purchasing $5,000 in Canadian Maple Leafs. Long term investment, say maybe 10-15 years. Would welcome opinions.
What goes up must come down is particularly applicable to precious metals prices. My advice is be careful. We're higher now than we were in '79/'80, and look at how quickly that market bottomed-out, and how long investors had to hold these coins (27/8 years) just to get their money back, less inflation. As such, MHO, not a good long term investment. Short term, in and out in six months, a year, that's different, but of course you're guessing/gambling, then. How good are you at that?
Ok, here's the plan. I'll buy $1,000 worth at the next dip and $1,000 on the second dip. $3,000 left .... purchase a $2,000 key date coin, put $1,000 in CD.
This $5,000 is IRA money, but I have no confidence in the stock market. At 54 yrs young, can't take the big hits. Am I foolish? Should I just put it into mutual funds?
Best regards,
I think fc has it right.
My opinion is to always have a sell strategy before buying.
Oil = energy. In fact, our whole civilization is utterly dependant on oil. We are entering the last days of the era of cheap oil and energy. From here on out, it will become more expensive yearly, and it will be the most inflationary ingredient one could envision. Gold has not reacted to "inflation" as registered by the CPI or the "real" inflation that has been going on. It has reacted to energy costs and the falling dollar. Unless the dollar rises against all currencies at a pace above rising energy costs, gold will not significantly fall again IMO.
We are entering super inflation / hyperinflation till our currency dies, and it is coming because the world has reached its oil production capacity and demand is growing at a supercharged rate. It won't happen overnight, but it will be the trend of the next one to two decades.
Tyler
To quote someone else, it's never a bad time to buy gold, if a person is doing it for the right reasons.
Right reasons, in my mind, mean allocating some assets to gold as part of a diversified portfolio. For the average person 2% to 3% of net worth is reasonable. Some folks like more than that in gold, but they better know what they are doing, and should not be asking advice on public forums.
I agree with the comments about averaging in. Many amateurs that try to time markets buy near the top and sell near the bottom. The reason for this is not a conspiracy, it is how markets work. When there are lots of folks clamoring to buy, and few willing to sell, prices get pushed to the top. At bottoms the opposite occurs. Same deal when it comes to selling, get an average price over time, instead of trying to time the sell at the top. Only the extremely lucky (and liars) buy at the bottom and sell at the top.
<< <i>Thinking of purchasing $5,000 in Canadian Maple Leafs. Long term investment, say maybe 10-15 years. Would welcome opinions.
Where do you plan to get it? I would not buy from the big companies selling on the 'Net. Don't pay any more than $5 over spot for CMLs. You should really be able to buy them at spot or a couple of dollars behind in this market.
I feel gold is high, but I thought the same at $400 & $600. My negative feelings plus the many other posters on this board could well be a bull signal. As long as interest rates are low alternate investments tend to be less attractive.
<< <i>way to late to the game in my opinion.
5000 in 6 months CDs at 6% interest... in 13 years will be
10,782 dollars and some change. so interest compounded 2 times
a year.
if you buy 9 ounces for 5000 (and that is on a dip!) you will need
gold to be 1500 an ounce to make 13,500 dollars.
anyone please correct my math if you see an obvious mistake.
think about it. i know i do. >>
Correct me if I'm wrong, but it does not look like you accounted for annual state and federal taxes in your computation. Here in MO the gov would skim 41% off every year.
Could you give me a name of a bank paying 6% today? I have heard of getting this rate through a broker with whom you have an account, but is there a bank selling these to individuals? The best I have found is Countrywide paying 5.5% APR. Institutions likely to be around for 13 years are paying somewhat less.
Thanks in advance.
<< <i>My opinion is to always have a sell strategy before buying. >>
you are not my dad in disguise are you? he has said the same thing
If you want to chance and buy on the dip, I would wait...there will probably be a correction to about 850$.
Golds bull cycle will probably be tapped out around 2010-12. After that, you wont want to be in gold.
siliconvalleycoins.com
article
Get on that gold train before it leaves the station.
butt. just wanted to show there is other investments that could
do just as well and easier to live with.
and you are right, i did not think about taxes. ;0)
<< <i>Correction: Countrywide is paying 5.45% with a $10,000 minimum. >>
Countrywide may be belly up here soon.
<< <i>
<< <i>Correction: Countrywide is paying 5.45% with a $10,000 minimum. >>
Countrywide may be belly up here soon. >>
You're probably right. I would never put over $97k there, $194k in a joint account.
The bankruptcy would be invisible to FDIC insured accounts. They will likely be absorbed by another institution. You just will not be able to roll over at sweet rates.
<< <i>Wait a little longer. Gold will dip back down. Once you see sub $750 then it'll be good to buy. >>
In what currency?
The days of $750 gold are long gone, at least in current FRNs.
I just don't see this dip so many speak of. Sure, I do see profit taking and perhaps a short stall while folks catch their breath, but that's about it.
$1,000 gold is coming soon, apparently sooner than some still refuse to believe.
You may see $850, maybe not, but it won't be there for long. February futures are closer to $900 then $850.
I expect to see gold at $1250 by year's end, and that's a conservative outlook.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>vplite, i just used it as an example! pulled the 6% number out of my
butt. just wanted to show there is other investments that could
do just as well and easier to live with.
and you are right, i did not think about taxes. ;0) >>
Thanks. Your basic point may well be true. For most investors gold has not provided a decent return.
It is not too late to buy gold, I think I saw some for sale on ebay....
<< <i>Thanks. Your basic point may well be true. For most investors gold has not provided a decent return. >>
Precious metals have outperformed just about everything over the last 3-4 years.
My little gold hoard is up 300% over the last 6 years. That's a 50% return annually.
My tiny silver stash has done even better. When I take into account that I sold everything a while back at around $8 and then repuchased it and more at a cost average of around $5.25 it's been the best move financially of my life. It's difficult to combine that with the current situation but I figure silver has returned me around 425% over the same time frame.
It is true that silver can be a volitile maiden, not for the faint of heart, but overall I believe it will bring a better return than gold will over the next 3-5 years and I believe both will be continue to be outstanding investments.
I guess I don't know most investors.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>
<< <i>Thanks. Your basic point may well be true. For most investors gold has not provided a decent return. >>
Precious metals have outperformed just about everything over the last 3-4 years.
My little gold hoard is up 300% over the last 6 years. That's a 50% return annually.
My tiny silver stash has done even better. When I take into account that I sold everything a while back at around $8 and then repuchased it and more at a cost average of around $5.25 it's been the best move financially of my life. It's difficult to combine that with the current situation but I figure silver has returned me around 425% over the same time frame.
It is true that silver can be a volitile maiden, not for the faint of heart, but overall I believe it will bring a better return than gold will over the next 3-5 years and I believe both will be continue to be outstanding investments.
I guess I don't know most investors. >>
I hope you are right about PM being an outstanding investment from this point forward.
You have apparently taken the time to study the market, and have been lucky, and it has paid off for you. I got a bunch at $360 over 15 years ago and have not faired as well.
Purchases I have made in the last 4 years have done just fine. For many (I'll take that most back) the opportunity cost of holding gold, and the 28% "collectibles" tax rate have made it a poor investment as compared to CDs or the S&P 500 or DJIA.
Congratulations to you and the investors of your acquaint who have done well.
<< <i>way to late to the game in my opinion.
5000 in 6 months CDs at 6% interest... in 13 years will be
10,782 dollars and some change. so interest compounded 2 times
a year.
if you buy 9 ounces for 5000 (and that is on a dip!) you will need
gold to be 1500 an ounce to make 13,500 dollars.
anyone please correct my math if you see an obvious mistake.
think about it. i know i do. >>
Math is fine but I just got a CD for 5.2% for 4 months so this can turn 3 times in the year. You have a low estimate. Bottom line I agree and stick with the CD for now
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
just completed 3d tour to Iraq and retired after 28+ years in the US Army
<< <i>
<< <i>way to late to the game in my opinion.
5000 in 6 months CDs at 6% interest... in 13 years will be
10,782 dollars and some change. so interest compounded 2 times
a year.
if you buy 9 ounces for 5000 (and that is on a dip!) you will need
gold to be 1500 an ounce to make 13,500 dollars.
anyone please correct my math if you see an obvious mistake.
think about it. i know i do. >>
Math is fine but I just got a CD for 5.2% for 4 months so this can turn 3 times in the year. You have a low estimate. Bottom line I agree and stick with the CD for now >>
fine and dandy, BUT, you forgot one important factor - what happens if the bank goes under, then you left holding an empty bag - remember, you're dealing in U.S. paper money - which is looking pretty thin these days - if you had a 10/oz of gold and $8000 US$ - which would you like to physically hold in your hand?? - me - GOLD - it's something that will always have value - $8000 means nothing, if the banks go belly up.
just completed 3d tour to Iraq and retired after 28+ years in the US Army
<< <i>fine and dandy, BUT, you forgot one important factor - what happens if the bank goes under, then you left holding an empty bag - remember, you're dealing in U.S. paper money - which is looking pretty thin these days - if you had a 10/oz of gold and $8000 US$ - which would you like to physically hold in your hand?? - me - GOLD - it's something that will always have value - $8000 means nothing, if the banks go belly up. >>
Always make sure you are covered by FDIC insurance. I see your point though. If we experience hyperinflation your dollars will still lose value. PMs are the hedge against that.