Moneyball 5 years later
Morgoth
Posts: 3,950 ✭✭✭
in Sports Talk
With the news of Nick Swisher's trade I felt it might be a good time to discuss the impact of Moneyball and it's theory on baseball talent evaluation and it's real world application.
The book focused alot of energy on the 2002 draft where Oakland had 7 draft picks. Basically Beane felt he got everyone he wanted and more. He also felt he got a steal in Nick Swisher at 16 who was going to be a superstar.
The draft for Oakland that year was
16- Nick Swisher
24- Joe Blanton
26-John McCurdy
30-Benjamin Fritz
35-Jeremy Brown
37-Stephen Obenchain
39-Mark Teahen
Listed below are players that were featured in the book and where they are now:
Chad Bradford- Traded in 2004 and now on his 3rd team since. Alot of focus on the book was about how his delivery was different so that is what kept him from the majors and left him unsure of himself (he is a submariner). He is still an effective player and appeared in 78 games last year but far from being an out machine, hitters hit .294 off him in 2007.
Nick Swisher- Traded in 2007 to the White Sox. He had a good 2006 season with 35 homers and 90 RBI's but his K's where higher than his BB's. He was among the league leaders in walks. He posted his highest OBP in 2007 but also saw a 30 point drop in his Slugging as his homer amount dropped by 13.
Scott Hatteberg- signed with the Reds in 2006. Since leaving the A's, has posted career highs in BA, Slugging, OBP and OPS.
Joe Blanton- Averaged 14 wins in his 3 seasons already. Posted a career low 1.22 WHIP in 2007. By far the best player Oakland drafted in 2002.
Jeremy Bonderman- Subject of Beanes wrath for being drafted w/o his consent in 2001. Traded to the Tigers. Injured in 2007 and posting his highest WHIP and ERA in 4 years, did not have great season for the Tigers. Still posted a 3 to 1 K/BB ratio and is still a good starting pitcher that has averaged almost 3X more K's than walks in the last 3 years. Posted over 200K's in 2006.
Eric Chavez- Beane compared him favorably to the likes of Pujols. Injuries and an anemic bat have dropped this slugger from All Star caliber to platoon material. He compares more favorably to Scott Rolen than he does Pujols.
The rest of the 2002 1st round draft class.
Benjamin Fritz- 11-11 at AA with a 1.62 WHIP and a 5.67 ERA.
Jeremy Brown- spent entire season in minors at Sacramento. Posted respectable numbers of .276, 14 HR, 58 RBI, .364 OBP, .833 OPS
Stephen Obenchain- Did not play in 2007.
Mark Teahen- Traded to the Royals. In 2007 had a big power swoon as his HR's dropped from 18 to 7 and he lost 111 points of slugging. Not another Jason Giambi there.
After 5 years you would have thought this great draft class that the author expounds upon would now be yielding fruit. And it's true, 2 bonafide ML players came out of that draft but they missed on 5 other players for a success rate of 28.5%. Not much better than guessing as Beane called it. Players they could of had, Cole Hamels #17, Matt Cain #25 and Jeff Franceour #23.
Still a majority of the players in that 1st round never became much of anything as of yet with Prince Fielder being the star and Hamels the pitching stud, but Blanton is very good. It is still interesting to see that Beane would never draft Hamels due to him being a HS prospect and Fielder was too fat even for the A's. It seems that Beane set's alot of rules up for his draft and maybe that rigidity has caused them to miss out on some players. I think you can be too system orientated.
If this draft would have been as great as they hoped they would be ready for a playoff run but Beane admitted that trading Swisher means they are rebuilding. Only 1 player from this draft is on their ML roster and no others look like they will be there soon. It looks like the A's finally met the fate of similar small market teams and "bad" drafts due to the human factor. Also their excuse about playoffs being a crapshoot is fine for them but if they had more bullets in the gun like the Red Sox maybe they would have won more.
The book focused alot of energy on the 2002 draft where Oakland had 7 draft picks. Basically Beane felt he got everyone he wanted and more. He also felt he got a steal in Nick Swisher at 16 who was going to be a superstar.
The draft for Oakland that year was
16- Nick Swisher
24- Joe Blanton
26-John McCurdy
30-Benjamin Fritz
35-Jeremy Brown
37-Stephen Obenchain
39-Mark Teahen
Listed below are players that were featured in the book and where they are now:
Chad Bradford- Traded in 2004 and now on his 3rd team since. Alot of focus on the book was about how his delivery was different so that is what kept him from the majors and left him unsure of himself (he is a submariner). He is still an effective player and appeared in 78 games last year but far from being an out machine, hitters hit .294 off him in 2007.
Nick Swisher- Traded in 2007 to the White Sox. He had a good 2006 season with 35 homers and 90 RBI's but his K's where higher than his BB's. He was among the league leaders in walks. He posted his highest OBP in 2007 but also saw a 30 point drop in his Slugging as his homer amount dropped by 13.
Scott Hatteberg- signed with the Reds in 2006. Since leaving the A's, has posted career highs in BA, Slugging, OBP and OPS.
Joe Blanton- Averaged 14 wins in his 3 seasons already. Posted a career low 1.22 WHIP in 2007. By far the best player Oakland drafted in 2002.
Jeremy Bonderman- Subject of Beanes wrath for being drafted w/o his consent in 2001. Traded to the Tigers. Injured in 2007 and posting his highest WHIP and ERA in 4 years, did not have great season for the Tigers. Still posted a 3 to 1 K/BB ratio and is still a good starting pitcher that has averaged almost 3X more K's than walks in the last 3 years. Posted over 200K's in 2006.
Eric Chavez- Beane compared him favorably to the likes of Pujols. Injuries and an anemic bat have dropped this slugger from All Star caliber to platoon material. He compares more favorably to Scott Rolen than he does Pujols.
The rest of the 2002 1st round draft class.
Benjamin Fritz- 11-11 at AA with a 1.62 WHIP and a 5.67 ERA.
Jeremy Brown- spent entire season in minors at Sacramento. Posted respectable numbers of .276, 14 HR, 58 RBI, .364 OBP, .833 OPS
Stephen Obenchain- Did not play in 2007.
Mark Teahen- Traded to the Royals. In 2007 had a big power swoon as his HR's dropped from 18 to 7 and he lost 111 points of slugging. Not another Jason Giambi there.
After 5 years you would have thought this great draft class that the author expounds upon would now be yielding fruit. And it's true, 2 bonafide ML players came out of that draft but they missed on 5 other players for a success rate of 28.5%. Not much better than guessing as Beane called it. Players they could of had, Cole Hamels #17, Matt Cain #25 and Jeff Franceour #23.
Still a majority of the players in that 1st round never became much of anything as of yet with Prince Fielder being the star and Hamels the pitching stud, but Blanton is very good. It is still interesting to see that Beane would never draft Hamels due to him being a HS prospect and Fielder was too fat even for the A's. It seems that Beane set's alot of rules up for his draft and maybe that rigidity has caused them to miss out on some players. I think you can be too system orientated.
If this draft would have been as great as they hoped they would be ready for a playoff run but Beane admitted that trading Swisher means they are rebuilding. Only 1 player from this draft is on their ML roster and no others look like they will be there soon. It looks like the A's finally met the fate of similar small market teams and "bad" drafts due to the human factor. Also their excuse about playoffs being a crapshoot is fine for them but if they had more bullets in the gun like the Red Sox maybe they would have won more.
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Comments
I think that Billy Beane's ideas about what makes a good player for a small market team are sound and I think they've been adopted by other clubs (even some of the big market clubs like the Dodgers and the Red Sox). I think the critical flaw with the A's is economics. They would really have to put together a perfect storm of all the right draft picks and just the right one or two veterans that they can afford to sign long-term. Any mistakes and there is no way they can compete for a championship.
Yes, I forgot about Youkilis but again he actually never played for the A's. He has turned himself into a good player and has value to the Red Sox much in the way Wakefield does. They both give you what you need but not in a way that you would have to pay them 15 mil a year.
Some of the theories are iffy, such as College players especially pitchers will be better major league players quicker and longer. I think looking back at the 2002 draft some HS players are doing just fine.
Bottom line is Beane got lucky that all 3 pitchers panned out the way they did and probably won't ever have that kind of luck again. Until the A's can afford more talent they will have to depend on draft luck or other teams trading away talent. It seems that after this book alot of GM's (cough, omar, cough) got wise to the A's thieving ways.