Where are these cards coming from?

SOM

Every time I go to a card show, or every time I walk into a card store, and I ask if you've "got any 50's or 60's baseball cards in good shape?", invariably the reply is that "you just can't find that stuff anymore", let alone any high-grade product.

But, based on the Pop Report for this year, somebody is sure finding it.

One quick example. The 1967 Topps Don Demeter...supposedly an SP, and one of the toughest cards to pick up in high grade...jumped from a pop of about 35 in PSA 8 to 50. In 2007!

Are there that many new members submitting cards? (If so, the CLCT stock price sure doesn't reflect that.)

Is there a ton of unopened material being thrust upon the hobby? (I haven't seen any in recent auctions.)

Are we as a hobby getting sharper in our submissions?

Are the grading standards easing? (I wonder if the overall % of PSA 8's for the 1967 set has dramatically increased this year.)

Any thoughts on this?

(I hope it's not because of #4.)

Nick

sagard

I'm not sure how the '67s fair in the "print snow" category, but I had not ever witnessed a 1963 Topps PSA 8 with even a trace of snow until a little over a year ago.

Flintboy

What might be happening is someone resubmits the card or cards numerous times trying to get a 9. Every time it comes back an 8 it does not truly reflect on the pop report. The submitter does not notify psa when they try to crack and resubmit thus the higher number of 8s on that card. I think that might be some of the issues here.

MCMLVTopps

Excellent point Flintboy, I had not thought of that! I follow the 55T set pretty closely and am amazed at the increase in each POP report in PSA 7s and PSA 8s. Surely the cracking of PSA slabs has had some impact on the 55T set, but still lots of raw coming from somewhere more than 50 years since issue. I'd say the bulk are crack outs from other grading services, could be wrong, but the numbers seem kinda high to me each time a POP report comes out. Gotta slow down some time!

Flintboy

To be honest I really wonder how accurate the pop report is. Obviously the pop report on psa10 is accurate,since no one will crack and resubmit those. I do know you are supposed to tell psa when you crack and resubmit ,but how many people really take the time to do that. My guess is not that many people do. I have a hunch the pop report on vintage is more inflated on psa 7s and 8s than you think...Just my 2 cents.........

lostdart58

There are alot more folks playing the grading game these days.

Stingray

<< <i>I'm not sure how the '67s fair in the "print snow" category, but I had not ever witnessed a 1963 Topps PSA 8 with even a trace of snow until a little over a year ago. >>




I do not believe that 67s suffer from the print snow issue.

Morgoth

A friend of mine who's a dealer plays the game until he has no more room in the card.

Example of the routine he described, buys nice PSA 8 for 400, SMR 600. Will resubmit at the show special 1 to 2 times. If he can't get the bump then he will submit it using a normal submission with more cards from that year but of worse quality (6's and 7's) to make it look even better in hopes of getting the bump. He will do that until he is at the 600 dollar threshold. If he stilll can't get the bump he tries to sell at a show for 20 - 40% over SMR. If that fails he dumps on ebay.

SDavid

Now that the market for 60's graded commons is so weak, I really haven't had much trouble finding nm+/nmmt cards from that era...and at a good price too. High grade 50's cards are pretty tough, but there's still a lot of high grade 60's cards out there.

MCMLVTopps

Morgoth...the problem I see with SMR is that it is not representative of "market value". I keep records of the majority of 55T PSA 7 and PSA 8 sales over the past 3 years +. The prices shown in the SMR for the 55T cards in many cases is so far off as to be laughable, and I mean in some cases off by well more than $1k++.

Sadly, SMR has become etched in a lot of collectors minds, is used by auction houses and others in emails indicating "I'll offer you x% of SMR". That is simply a HUGE crock.

Example: The January 2008 SMR, page 54, will show a price value of $80 for a PSA 8 Art Fowler card # 3 in the 55T set. The lowest this card has sold for on Ebay within the past 3 years is $914.98, and the highest price was $2,359.34. Clearly light-years away from $80. There are several other cards in the 55T set lacking realistic pricing in the SMR.

While I am aware SMR is a "guide" one would think based upon the auction house sales and Ebay sales that the SMR prices would more clearly reflect the data I have, it simply does not. I suspect this may be the case with other sets, but I can only speak for the 55T set. I think this lack of reality data hurts the seller for sure, but also confuses the potential new collector into thinking he/she can obtain cards for prices stated in the SMR, when in fact this will not happen.

One can go to Baseball Card Value Price Guide to verify the cards in your set against the SMR. BCVPG of course has begun a historical trail of card sales which will clearly indicate market sales conditons. Do a search of Art Fowler in the 55T set, then click the PSA 8 sales tab to see the previous sales data. The SMR has had this card at $80 since forever, thus indicating the fallacy the SMR. I could cite other exmples, but it does get tedious and boring.

Mickey71

WELL SAID MCLVTOPPS. THE SMR NEEDS ALOT OF WORK. I HATE TO SAY THIS BUT DOES PSA TAKE THE SMR SERIOUSLY. THE 55 COMMONS WERE MENTIONED AND YES THEY ARE WAY OFF, BUT THE PURE JOKE IS THE 1969 BASEBALL COMMONS. THE SMR LISTS THE HIGH NUMBERS AT LIKE $25 APIECE. FOR ONE THING THE HIGH NUMBERS IN 69 ARE VERY EASY TO GET AND CARRY NO PREMIUM AT ALL. YES THERE ARE A FEW LOWER POP CARDS THAT BRING THESE PRICES BUT FOR 90% OF THE SET THE PRICING IS A JOKE. IT ALSO HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE SET BEING HOT OR COLD BECAUSE THEY HAVE NEVER BROUGHT MORE THAN ABOUT 40% OF SMR CONSISTANTLY. I AM GOING TO LIST A FEW EXAMPLES OF SMR AND NORMAL BUY PRICES FOR VARIOUS CARDS. THESE ARE NORMAL COMMONS IN A REGULAR SERIES-NOT EXTREME LOW POPS. ALSO, JUST ON A SIDE NOTE I HAVE MANY PSA 7 & 8 1969 COMMONS THAT I WILL SELL FOR WELL UNDER SMR.
SMR SELL
1955 TOPPS $80 $60
1956 TOPPS $55 $40
1957 TOPPS $55 $30
1958 TOPPS $55 $25
1959 TOPPS $38 $20
1960 TOPPS $26 $14
1961 TOPPS $22 $12
1969 TOPPS $24 $10 IF YOU'RE REALLY LUCKY, AND THIS HAS NEVER BEEN ANY DIFFERENT

THE SMR NEEDS TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY OR THEY NEED TO GET RID OF IT AND THROW IN A COUPLE MORE FREE SUBS. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE CUSTOMER SERVICE TYPE THINGS THAT SEEMS TO NEVER GET ADDRESSED. I KNOW THERE ARE PRICE CHANGES ON CERTAIN SETS BUT THE NORMAL 69 COMMONS FOR $24 HAS NEVER HAPPENED.
THANKS,
MICKEY71

summerof68

If you are a regular viewer of Mastro Auctions you will notice that someone is routinely consigning Gai slabbed 1968, 1970, 1971 and 1972 vending boxes from various series... not to mention 1975 thru 1979 wax, cello and rak cases as well. I see this happen auction after auction. And of course many profiteers buy these boxes and cases and send in the best specimans to PSA. Is there still alot of ungraded mint vintage material still out there you ask...you bet there is. Far more than most collectors would think. Just take a look at a Larry Fritsch sales catalogue and you will see all the 1968 thru 1979 unopened material he has for sale. Those years look familiar? Most likely it is Fritsch who has been consigning many of these same boxes and cases to Mastro. In 2005 I personally tried to purchase twenty (20) factory sealed cases of 1975 Topps baseball cello paks. I spoke with Larry by phone and we couldn't arrive at terms because he really didn't want to part with 20 cases though he confirmed he had them in stock. I requested the amount of 20 but he never divulged how many cases he actually had. I've always wondered how many more of these cases he has in stock above and beyond the 20. But this should give you some indication as to what might still be out there. I spoke with Mark Murphy-"the unopened pak specialist" in 2003 and he told me there was far more unopened pre-1980 material out there than the average collector could ever imagine!!! Also there are "old-timers" out there all across this country who have vintage collections who are vehemently against grading and think it is ruining the hobby. Eventually these "purist" will pass on and their collections will find their way to PSA. So it is my view that vintage PSA pops have multiple sources out there that will consistently keep them increasing. Just check out the weekly population increase in 1968 topps baseball psa 9's--its amazing!!!!!!!

blacklab

Somebody is either finding them or sending in material from an old "find." Let's go back a little further. A year and a half ago I paid almost $300 for a '52 Bowman PSA 8 #226 Alex Kellner which was understandable since the pop on the card at the time was 11, the lowest in the set. Now a year and a half later, the card is almost considered a common hi # since the pop has jumped to 27. I would like to know where these cards are coming from. The same situation applies to the '52 B Stengel & Crosetti. You used to pay over twice book for these cards in PSA 8. Not now.

SOM

Exactly my point, blacklab. And why I started this thread.

Morgoth

Low pop cards are a different game entirely. I was using an example of say a 58 Clemente PSA 8, one that is kinda tough but very stable in price. Get a nine and it's lights out however.

Dealers love it when the SMR is off and I don't think want it fixed. If you take VCP or Ebay auction results to dealers most will laugh at you and point at SMR. Now the good dealers won't and those are harder to find. Prewar dealers are actually in my mind the best at not using the SMR at all and going with their experience (which in alot of cases means crazy high pricing)

Some dealers and collectors just look for low pops and target those with submissions, Scott Susor anybody? That is why I wouldn't put much stock into any low pop common cards post war. I just think they all are one find away from being a common again. Really the only thing driving alot of the low pop maddness is the set registry.

If you were building a raw set how many would truly pay 1K for a 61 Joe Gibbon that was slightly better than another for $35? It happens all the time in the 61 set when people buy an 8 over a 7.

My question is will the sour grapes for alot of set collectors when their low pops become high pops drive them out of the graded card side of the hobby?

SOM

Speaking of low pops, morgoth...that's a pretty cool low pop you're using for your identifying logo!

Morgoth

Thanks, maybe my 2nd favorite card I have behind my 55 Clemente. Had it before people knew which cards were low pops. Really regret never getting the Gibbon back when it would bring under 300 bucks which I thought was stupid even then. Oh well, my seven in my Pirate registry set is really nice and centered. We can't all drive cadillacs

Morgoth

I have another version signed by Maz, I have it on display with a ball, it looks like a 7, I wonder if it is worth getting graded and authenticated.

ejguru

I have some knowledge on the 67's....

I have cracked and resubbed maybe 100 or so in the last 5-7 years, with about a 20-25% bump UP rate, a few (3-4) have dropped a grade, while the rest haven't changed. I have cracked and resubbed at least 2 Demeters with no change (8). I have also crossed (and cracked) several SGC 88's and BGS 8's to PSA 8's--with the occasional 9 and less occasional 7 in return.

I have never cracked and resubbed a HOF player for fear of damaging card upon cracking, though some should have been cracked and resubbed.

No snow issues with 67's...

1960toppsguy

The pop report for PSA- 7 and PSA-8 is at least 25 times what is actually out there. No one resubmits 9's or above, and if it's a PSA-6 or below, who even cares? Those cards just move from collector to collector . . .

WinPitcher

Raw vintage is out there, the B+M dealers that said 'It is tuff to find" or whatever wer telling the truth, the truth for them anyway.


Steve

jmoran19

I know 2 guys in Omaha with raw 1954 thru 1956 nm/mt sets, collected as kids. I use to work with them and turned them on to 8 pocket pages, they had them in shoe boxes.

They made a trade for the ages (late 80's), one guy had multiple Clemente rookies and the other multiple Koufax rookies and they each needed the other one. All were nmmt, everytime I run into them I beg that they call me when they are ready to sell. One guy keeps saying they will be passed down to his son although he has no interest in sports,

sultanoswat

We're only looking at the collector/submitter side of the issue. PSA is bringing some of this on themselves, a year or so ago I submitted some cards with rough cuts, flawless otherwise came back 6. Any noticeable OC or MC, marked as such or a 6. Now I'm seeing PSA 8's with some rough, and OC coming 7 0r 8. As far as shows or shops go, dealers still have not quite caught on,(they usually are the last to figure out), after you shell out $8 to park and $18 to get in you're not interested in ungraded and shop material. Sadly they're no different then us in some ways, they're wanting this stock to be ebayed, or even better professionally auctioned. Thus shop and National shows days are numbered, I believe.

rube26105

AlmostPerfect

a lot of 5, 6, 7's are being "improved". Soaking, trimming, whatever. Look at that szygy guy, that is what he does. Also, the standards are so varied from day to day that it is basically a crapshoot.